I. Current Situation and Prospects of International Trade
After entering the 1990s, due to the great changes in the world structure, western countries fell into recession due to cyclical and structural factors, and the growth rate of international trade declined year after year due to severe constraints such as changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar, international debts and wars, and the growth rate of international trade fluctuated greatly. The growth rate of international trade dropped from 7% in 1989 to 5% in 1990. 199 1 year dropped to 3% again, 1992 rose to 4.5%, 1993 fell to 2.5%, 1994 rose to 5%, and it is expected that 1995 will. 56666.6666666666666
On the whole, international trade will be in a new growth period in the 1990s, with a growth rate of about 5%, which not only exceeds the growth rate of the world economy, but will also be significantly higher than the development level in the 1980s (4%). The demand for mechanical and electrical products, transportation equipment, computers, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemical products in the international commodity market has greatly increased, and prices have risen, among which the trade in manufactured goods will further expand. Trade in primary products has also improved significantly, and its absolute trade volume will continue to increase, but its proportion in international trade will show a downward trend, which will be lower than the level of similar products in the 1980s, and this trend will continue to develop in the next few years. In 1990s, the basic trend of international trade was slow growth in the early stage and accelerated growth in the middle and late stage, which was mainly driven by macro-control measures in western countries. However, the technology cycle directly related to the change of industrial structure is on the rise, and there is no big breakthrough. Restricted by the new development of trade protectionism and the heavy debt burden of developing countries, it is unlikely that international trade will increase substantially.
Second, several major factors affecting the development of international trade
(a) The world economy continues to maintain its growth momentum.
The world economy got rid of the slow growth and recession for four consecutive years and began to enter a new round of economic upward cycle. On the basis of 199 1 decreasing to -0.4%, 1992 world economic growth rate increased to 0.8%, and 1993 world economic growth rate increased to 1.7%.
The general economic recovery and development in western countries is an important reason for the improvement of the world economy. The growth rate of the American economy in the second half of the 1990s may remain at around 3%. The economic growth rate of western Europe has also increased from the negative growth of 0.4% in 1993 to 2.6% in 1994, and can reach 2.9% in 1995. In the next few years, the economic situation will further improve and enter the regular growth, and the average annual growth rate will be higher than that in the 1980s. The further improvement of the economic situation in the United States and Western Europe will help curb the appreciation of the yen, promote Japan's exports to a certain extent, provide an opportunity for Japan to get rid of the economic recession, and make the economy show some signs of recovery. In the second half of the 1990s, Japan's economic growth rate remained at 3-3.5%, higher than that of the United States and Western Europe, but still lower than that of the 1980s.
Development and trend of international trade
Release date: July 2, 20031Author: An Hefen
Studying the development trend of international trade is an important prerequisite for China to formulate and improve its export development strategy.
I. Current Situation and Prospects of International Trade
After entering the 1990s, due to the great changes in the world structure, western countries fell into recession due to cyclical and structural factors, and the growth rate of international trade declined year after year due to severe constraints such as changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar, international debts and wars, and the growth rate of international trade fluctuated greatly. The growth rate of international trade dropped from 7% in 1989 to 5% in 1990. 199 1 year dropped to 3% again, 1992 rose to 4.5%, 1993 fell to 2.5%, 1994 rose to 5%, and it is expected that 1995 will. 56666.6666666666666
Generally speaking, international trade will be in a new period of growth in the 1990s, with a growth rate of around 5%, which not only exceeds the growth rate of the world economy, but will also be significantly higher than the development level in the 1980s (4%). The demand for mechanical and electrical products, transportation equipment, computers, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemical products in the international commodity market has greatly increased, and prices have risen, among which the trade in manufactured goods will further expand. Trade in primary products has also improved significantly, and its absolute trade volume will continue to increase, but its proportion in international trade will show a downward trend, which will be lower than the level of similar products in the 1980s, and this trend will continue to develop in the next few years. In 1990s, the basic trend of international trade was slow growth in the early stage and accelerated growth in the middle and late stage, which was mainly driven by macro-control measures in western countries. However, the technology cycle directly related to the change of industrial structure is on the rise, and there is no big breakthrough. Restricted by the new development of trade protectionism and the heavy debt burden of developing countries, it is unlikely that international trade will increase substantially.
Second, several major factors affecting the development of international trade
(a) The world economy continues to maintain its growth momentum.
The world economy got rid of the slow growth and recession for four consecutive years and began to enter a new round of economic upward cycle. On the basis of 199 1 decreasing to -0.4%, 1992 world economic growth rate increased to 0.8%, and 1993 world economic growth rate increased to 1.7%.
The general economic recovery and development in western countries is an important reason for the improvement of the world economy. The growth rate of the American economy in the second half of the 1990s may remain at around 3%. The economic growth rate of western Europe has also increased from the negative growth of 0.4% in 1993 to 2.6% in 1994, and can reach 2.9% in 1995. In the next few years, the economic situation will further improve and enter the regular growth, and the average annual growth rate will be higher than that in the 1980s. The further improvement of the economic situation in the United States and Western Europe will help curb the appreciation of the yen, promote Japan's exports to a certain extent, provide an opportunity for Japan to get rid of the economic recession, and make the economy show some signs of recovery. In the second half of the 1990s, Japan's economic growth rate remained at 3-3.5%, higher than that of the United States and Western Europe, but still lower than that of the 1980s.
At the 26th Annual Meeting of ASEAN Economic Ministers, it was unanimously agreed to shorten the time for establishing the ASEAN Free Trade Area from the original 15 to 10, and decided to reduce the tariffs on industrial products and agricultural products within ASEAN to 0.5% on June 1 day, 2003. At present, the Asia-Pacific "growth triangle", as a supplementary mode of sub-regional economic cooperation, is progressing smoothly.
In order to promote the development of Asia-Pacific economic cooperation, APEC held a "special" Senior Officials Meeting in February 1995 to discuss the prospects of regional trade and investment, and prepared the agenda for the Osaka 1 1 Ministerial Meeting and the Third Leaders' Meeting in June this year, while drafting "Trade and Investment Liberalization in the Asia-Pacific Region by 2020". Officials at the meeting agreed that the agenda should include two parts: trade and investment liberalization, and economic and technical cooperation. The meeting agreed to set up a coordination group for private enterprises.
(D) Accelerated scientific and technological progress
In the 1990s, high and new technologies, focusing on microelectronics, biotechnology, information technology and new materials, continued to accelerate their development and moved towards practicality and industrialization. With the popularization and application of high technology, the deepening of international division of labor, the continuous improvement of product quality and performance, and the continuous change of product types and specifications, the production cycle of products will be greatly shortened. Due to the continuous upgrading of products, the industrial structure and economic structure of countries will be upgraded to a higher level, and the interdependence and penetration between countries will be further deepened, thus promoting the continuous expansion of international commodity scope and trade volume. In this way, the content, form and organization of commodity production will change. The development of international trade is increasingly linked with new technologies, which greatly reduce the density and universality of raw materials in international commodity production and trade, but greatly increase the intensity of technology and knowledge. Due to the diversified development of social consumption demand, intra-industry trade has been promoted through commodity exchange.
(E) the vigorous development of multinational companies
After entering the 1990s, multinational corporations have developed rapidly and are constantly changing the pattern of world commodity production and circulation. At present, there are about 12000 multinational companies in the world, which control 2/3 of the total global export trade, and the internal trade of multinational companies has accounted for 40% of international trade. With the new development of production internationalization, multinational companies will control economic activities such as international trade, international investment and technology transfer to a greater extent. Trade in manufactured goods, especially high-tech trade and capital goods, will also account for an increasing proportion in multinational companies. In the trade of manufactured goods in developed countries, due to the effect of economies of scale, the two-way international commodity flow within the same industry has developed rapidly and become the main source of trade benefits. According to the investigation of 1992, the intra-industry trade of developed countries accounts for about 60% of international trade, and the industries of Singapore, South Korea and Indonesia.
With the development of regional collectivization of the world economy and the prevalence of new trade protectionism, it is more difficult for enterprises to enter foreign markets. In order to bypass the trade barriers of the host country, reduce the cost of research, trial production and production, expand the market and realize complementary advantages, some large multinational companies began to move toward borderless in the 1980s, but it was not until recent years that the work of large enterprises concluding international strategic alliances developed rapidly. Multinational companies can make use of the different advantages of their own countries and other countries, realize the rational allocation of resources on a global scale through the international flow of production factors, obtain the greatest economic benefits and promote the development of international trade.
Three. Great changes have taken place in the structure of international trade.
(A) the booming international trade in services
After entering the 1980s, the growth rate of service trade exceeded that of commodity trade. The international trade in services increased from $405 billion in 1982 to $960 billion in 1987, and further increased to $102 billion, with an increase of 65,438+. From 65438 to 0993, the world merchandise trade volume decreased by 2% compared with the previous year, while the international service trade volume increased by 3%. In the composition of international service trade, the proportion of transportation and tourism service trade is relatively declining, while the proportion of service trade such as communication, insurance, advertising, technology, leasing and management is increasing, especially the added value of high-tech products is increasing, and their goods are becoming more and more service-intensive.
The economy of developed countries is becoming more and more "service-oriented", accounting for about 3/4 of international service trade. The United States is the world's largest exporter of service trade, with obvious advantages in emerging service projects such as telecommunications, data processing, banking and insurance. For the sake of their own economic security, many countries in the world have implemented protectionist policies on service trade and generally built trade barriers, which poses a strong threat to the expansion of American service trade. Therefore, a few years ago, the United States made a request to GATT to solve the problem of service trade. After years of negotiations, the Uruguay Round finally reached a multilateral framework agreement on trade in services, which stipulated the general obligations and disciplines of the contracting parties, including most-favored-nation treatment, transparency, national treatment, gradual participation of developing countries, market access, dispute settlement and other provisions. The establishment of a multilateral framework for trade in services is a major breakthrough of GATT in promoting the development of international trade liberalization, which will enable contracting parties to protect the service market and conduct multilateral negotiations, strengthen personnel exchanges and information circulation, especially the gradual liberalization of trade in services such as intellectual property rights, technology transfer, data processing, consulting and advertising, and help accelerate the development of international trade.
(b) Environmentally friendly products are very popular all over the world.
From 65438 to 0992, the United Nations "Environment and Development Conference" greatly enhanced people's awareness of environmental protection around the world, and the demand for green products such as green food, green refrigerator, green air conditioner, green computer, green car, etc., which was harmless to human health increased significantly, thus promoting the transformation of industrial sectors such as electrical appliances, energy, construction, petrochemical, etc., and forming new huge industries such as pollution prevention, energy saving and information service. Environmental protection technologies in North America and Western Europe have occupied 60% of the international market. According to the survey of seven western industrial countries, the number of people boycotting non-environmental protection products accounts for about 79% of the total number, which shows that green goods have dominated the international market and the market prospect is very broad.
In order to solve the trade-related environmental problems, the Uruguay Round Trade Negotiating Committee adopted a resolution on "Trade and Environment" at its meeting in February, 2005 1993 15, and decided to draft a work plan on trade and environment, formulate rules to strengthen the interaction between trade and environmental measures, and supervise trade measures for environmental purposes and trade-related environmental measures. With the enhancement of environmental awareness in the international community, environmental protection projects have attracted much attention in international aid and investment. At present, many countries have not only promulgated strict environmental protection laws and regulations, but also formulated the principle of "giving priority to environmental protection products" in import and export trade, regardless of industrial countries or "emerging industrial countries". President Clinton of the United States clearly proposed to formulate preferential export policies for environmentally friendly products; The EU has formulated a "green investment" policy; Asean countries decided to impose low tariffs on environmentally friendly products; This will have a far-reaching impact on the development of international trade.
Four. The way of international trade is changing.
(A) paperless trade is becoming increasingly popular.
Paperless trade (EDI) refers to the use of electronic data exchange instead of traditional paper documents for trade activities, and the transmission and processing of standard economic information between business partners' computers through communication networks to achieve the purpose of trading between buyers and sellers. Using EDI in international trade activities can greatly reduce or even eliminate all kinds of paper documents and bills in the traditional trade process, avoid repeated data input, simplify working procedures, not only speed up information feedback, but also get a lot of business information in time, reduce errors, reduce costs, improve efficiency and facilitate management. In the fierce market competition, it can also provide more favorable trade opportunities and conditions for enterprises.
Paperless trade began in the 1960s, but it was not until 1980s that it gradually extended to the field of international trade. Since 1992, the United States has adopted EDI for import and export trade declaration; Japan developed "Strategic Information System (SIS)" with EDI. South Korea has also established an EDI service system-Korea Trade Network (KT-NET); The China Municipal Government established the "China Coordinating Committee for Promoting EDI Application", which is responsible for promoting the application of EDI; In 2000, the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) was formulating international laws on the application of electronic data interchange, which created conditions for the universal use of electronic data interchange.
(B) the rapid development of management trade.
Specifically, managing trade refers to the administrative management and intervention of a country's foreign trade activities based on the national macroeconomic interests and domestic and foreign policy needs. For international economic organizations, it is the coordinated management of the international economy.
After entering the 1990s, due to the fierce competition in the international market, the struggle for market share in industrial countries intensified, which had a strong impact on the capitalist world economic system. Because of the correlation of economic interests, all countries concerned are aware of the necessity of strengthening international economic coordination. Developing countries have effectively promoted economic development by adjusting industrial and economic structures and implementing reform and opening-up policies. South Korea, Singapore, Hongkong and Taiwan Province Province and other newly industrialized countries and regions began to compete with developed countries for international market share, and developed countries adopted many trade management measures to protect the development of traditional industries. With the further strengthening of the trend of regional grouping in the world economy, in order to protect the local market, regional economic groups are gradually removing various obstacles that hinder the free flow of goods and production factors, and at the same time rejecting foreign countries, which makes new trade protectionism rise, unfair monopoly competition and contradictions among groups intensify, and non-member countries also feel that their trade space is shrinking. In order to expand exports and protect the market, we must strengthen the unilateral management of trade and the coordinated management of trade groups; With the new development of production internationalization, multinational companies need to adopt free trade to eliminate all restrictions on foreign economic expansion, and at the same time, they need to improve their competitiveness through state intervention in foreign trade to protect certain industries from foreign monopoly organizations. Therefore, management trade will develop rapidly in the 1990s.
Five, some thoughts on the development of foreign trade
In 1990s, the general trend of international trade development brought opportunities and challenges to the development of China's export trade.
Its opportunities are mainly: 1. Conducive to expanding exports. The sustained growth of international trade marks the steady expansion of international market demand, which provides a more favorable international environment for the development of China's export trade and is conducive to expanding exports. 2. It is conducive to adjusting the structure of export commodities. In international trade, the proportion of manufactured goods, especially capital goods (electrical appliances, non-electrical machinery and transportation equipment) and high-tech, information and intelligent "software trade" will continue to rise, which will help China adjust its export commodity structure and accelerate the development of manufactured goods exports.
The main challenges are as follows: 1. It has increased the obstacles to China's export trade, and the labor-intensive products exported will face more intense international market competition. This makes it more difficult for China to introduce foreign capital and advanced technology, and CIS and Eastern European countries may become our competitors in the near future.
In order to turn opportunities into reality and make full use of favorable factors in the international environment, China should take the following measures:
1. Implement the global information strategy. Establish and improve the global marketing network. Look for market opportunities around the world to promote foreign trade activities.
2. Adjust the industrial structure according to the international market demand. In particular, products with great market development potential such as pollution-free, high added value, light weight and multifunction should be cultivated and treated as strategic industries for economic development.
3. Actively carry out transnational operations. China enterprises should jump out of the single product production framework of traditional industries, actively set foot in other new fields, carry out diversified operations and actively participate in cross-industry competition. In order to bypass each other's trade barriers, enterprises can export labor services, contract projects, replace commodity exports with capital exports, conduct transnational and trans-regional operations, and adopt measures such as investing in the host country (region) to set up factories, establishing joint ventures, taking shares and merging to produce and sell locally. Encourage qualified large enterprises to develop transnational strategic alliances.
4. Further open the market, strengthen the legal system and improve the investment environment.