2006 is destined to be an unusual year for China's economy. On the one hand, China's economy continues to maintain strong growth. According to estimates, in 2006, China's GDP growth rate reached 10.7%, and its per capita GDP exceeded $2,000, both of which were historical highs. According to the global trade report published by the World Trade Organization, in 2006, China ranked third in the world in terms of the total import and export of goods, only next to the United States and Germany. There are indications that China's economy is becoming one of the main driving forces of global economic growth with strong growth momentum. But in this scene of singing and dancing, some countries can't sit still. He deeply felt the enormous pressure brought by the economic growth of China, the world's largest power. In 2006, the trade surplus between China and the United States reached US$ 6,543.8+US$ 044.26 billion, the highest in history. As a result, the United States "blackmailed" China on the grounds that China workers robbed American workers of their jobs and the huge trade surplus caused them losses, in an attempt to let the RMB appreciate. In order to adjust and ease the trade friction between China and the United States and the upcoming economic "war", in February 2006, China and the United States held the first Sino-US Strategic Economic Dialogue, which was co-chaired by Wu Yi, Vice Premier of the State Council, China, and Paulson, US Treasury Secretary, as special representatives of the two heads of state. As expected before the meeting, RMB appreciation has become the focus of this dialogue. At that time, a senior US Treasury official said that the RMB exchange rate was the core part of this dialogue. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Henry Merritt Paulson said in an interview with American media at that time that a more flexible RMB exchange rate would help China to allocate funds more effectively, and "the whole world will not tolerate China adjusting the RMB exchange rate at such a slow speed".

In fact, the United States Senate has passed a resolution, of course, now it has been postponed. What is its content? Quite simply, if the RMB does not appreciate significantly before this year (2006) 10, all products from China will be subject to a tariff of 27.5%. This is a great event in China. Fortunately, the United States Senate has left some leeway to postpone voting, that is, to leave some time to see China's attitude. This situation is really serious. Why does the United States exert so much pressure? On the surface, RMB foreign exchange is a monetary and financial phenomenon, but RMB appreciation is still a trade deficit problem. From 1982 to now, American foreign trade has been in deficit every year for more than 20 years. From tens of billions of dollars in 1980s to 1000 billion dollars or even 200 billion dollars at the end of 1980s, the annual trade deficit of 2 1 century is as high as 500 billion dollars. Foreign exchange is like cash in one's pocket. You can borrow some from outside at first, but who dares to lend it to you if you keep losing money? But America's trade deficit is so large that it has not collapsed for so many years because of its special position in the world. When so many delicious, usable and wearable things arrive in the United States, it can just print more with the printing machine, and the increase in the circulation of US dollar bills will offset the trade deficit. For more than 20 years, the trade deficit has been so large that everyone has lost confidence in the dollar. The United States is about to face the situation in the 1960s, and everyone regards the US dollar as a hot potato! So in recent years, I feel that this problem must be solved. How to solve it? There is no other way, only one means can be taken. In the past, the United States pursued a strong dollar policy, that is, doing everything possible to build people's confidence in the dollar, and the foreign exchange account of the dollar remained at a high level, making the dollar stronger. However, when the foreign exchange trend of the US dollar is very strong, people will have confidence. With confidence, everyone will cling to the dollar. However, in recent years, there is no way to change the "strong dollar policy" into a "weak dollar policy", and the decline of US dollar foreign exchange will have a foreign exchange dumping effect. When the euro is strong against the US dollar, 1 euro can be exchanged for 0.8 US dollars, while the United States tries to weaken the exchange rate of the US dollar, so it becomes 1 euro convertible for10.3 US dollars, and the US dollar depreciates against the euro. The US Treasury Secretary said that "a weak dollar policy can be adopted to solve the US trade deficit problem", but President George W. Bush never admitted that he was a weak dollar policy, and he always stressed that he was a strong dollar policy. This has an impact on both Japan and the European Union. When the exchange rate of the US dollar falls against the Japanese yen and the euro, the trade deficit with them will be reduced, and even some traded goods may have a surplus. But doing so will have no impact on China. Why? Because before this, China's RMB foreign exchange system was "a single managed floating exchange rate based on market supply and demand", and it was actually pegged to the US dollar in the specific operation process. During the Asian financial crisis, the RMB has been pegged to the US dollar. If the dollar goes up, I will go up. You go down, I'll go down. In order to change the trade deficit, the United States quietly changed its strong dollar policy into a weak dollar policy, but it didn't work for China. No matter how it falls, the renminbi will not change, and the United States is very dissatisfied. Because the biggest trade deficit in the United States now comes from China, and the trade deficit with China is the highest among all the trade deficits in the United States. According to American statistics, China lost160 billion dollars last year. According to this year's forecast, at least 200 billion US dollars, China alone will lose 200 billion US dollars. How to reduce the total trade deficit of 500 billion yuan? This is the most important purpose of the United States to force the RMB to appreciate. The official attitude of the United States is that "the RMB foreign exchange system must show greater flexibility." To put it bluntly, the RMB should stop pegging to the US dollar, otherwise no matter how the US dollar changes, it will have no effect on China! Of course, we will not pay attention to the unwarranted accusations of the United States, nor will we accept the excessive demands of the United States, because there are many complicated reasons for the huge trade deficit between China and the United States, such as China's labor price advantage, China's rapid economic development and multinational companies' drooling over China's market. American companies set up factories in China and export finished products to the United States. On the surface, the United States has suffered, but in fact, American companies have really benefited the most. As the only superpower in the world today, the United States has to make some concessions in order to achieve better development in the future because of its strong economic, military and scientific and technological strength.

The process of RMB appreciation

On July 2 1 2005, under the strong pressure of the United States, in order to create a good external environment for China's economic development, the China government finally made the decision of RMB appreciation. From 8.27 to 8.28, USD 1 continuously broke through 8.2, 8. 1 and 8.0, and the appreciation rate in 2005 exceeded 3%. In 2006, the RMB made great strides all the way. On June 4, 2006, the central parity of RMB exchange rate started from 8.0702, and the RMB exchange rate experienced a process from slow upward to rapid operation, and then to "accelerated operation". According to the median price of 7.8087,65438 on February 29th, the RMB appreciated by 26 15 basis points this year.

The quotation of June 5438+1October 4, 2006 is exactly the same as the last trading day of last year. Since that day, inquiry trading, the international mainstream trading mechanism, has been introduced into China, revealing the major reform of foreign exchange trading mode and RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and the central parity of RMB exchange rate has also been given a more market-oriented formation mode. This year, the RMB exchange rate is bound to operate in a more flexible way.

On May 15, the central parity of RMB exchange rate broke through 1 USD against RMB in 8 yuan for the first time. In the next two months, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated around this important mark. On July 20th, the central parity of RMB exchange rate once again "broke 8", and went down all the way, bidding farewell to this key position.

It broke 7.96 on August 30th, 7.90 on September 28th, and/kloc-0 broke 7.88 on October 30th. The following month, the RMB exchange rate broke through 7.87, 7.86, 7.85, 165438+7.84 on October 29th, and the central parity of RMB exchange rate broke through 7.83 again on February 4th, reaching a new high of 7.8240. Since the exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated by more than 3.65%. 12 14, on the day of the first China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue, the central parity of RMB exchange rate exceeded 7.82 for the first time. The next day, the central parity of RMB exchange rate reached a new high, at 7.8 185. Judging from the data of the day, the RMB has appreciated by more than 3.72% after the exchange rate reform. 65438+February 29th, the RMB exchange rate reached a new high since the reform of foreign exchange earning, breaking through the 7.8 1 mark for the first time, reaching 7.8074.

According to the data of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the monthly average exchange rate of RMB in 2006 has appreciated from 8.0688 in June 5438 to 7.8652 in June 5438 +065438+ 10.

Since the second quarter of 2006, the American economic engine has obviously slowed down, and the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has increased, which has led to the overall weakening of the US dollar in the international exchange market, which has led to the continuous rise of the RMB exchange rate. On the other hand, in June, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded 1 trillion US dollars, while the accumulated trade surplus in the previous month of 10 has reached1336 million US dollars, which has become an important driving factor for RMB appreciation.

In 2007. The trend of accelerated appreciation of RMB has become clear. From New Year's Day in 2007 to the beginning of March, RMB has appreciated by 0.898%, 2.5 times that of the same period in 2006. In May 2007, the RMB exchange rate even exceeded 7.7, which made the RMB appreciate by 1.458% in 2007. It can be seen that RMB appreciation has begun to enter the "fast lane". No one can say for sure what the future trend will be, but one thing is certain, that is, there is still a lot of room for RMB appreciation in a period of time.

Impact on China Stock Market

From the historical experience, a country or region's currency appreciation, the stock market will rise. The RMB appreciated by nearly 7%. Although the increase is not large, it also shows that China has opened the "door" for RMB appreciation, and the RMB has entered the appreciation channel. The expectation of RMB appreciation by overseas hot money will inevitably attract the rapid inflow of speculative funds, thus promoting the rapid rise of asset prices in the stock and real estate markets. Japan, Thailand and Taiwan Province Province have all gone through this process.

Statistics show that each round of appreciation of the yen in that year corresponds to the continuous rising period of the Japanese stock market. The whole rising process, from 1972 to 1989, lasted 17, and increased by 19 times. During the period of 18 from 1972 to 1989, the yen appreciated in 13 years, with the appreciation rate exceeding 15% in six years. 15 The stock market rose, including six years in which the increase was more than 20%. The year with the biggest increase was 1972, when the fixed exchange rate of the yen was first adjusted from 1: 360 to 1: 30 1, and the Nikkei index rose by 9 1.9 1% that year. Followed by 1986, that is, in the first year after the Plaza Agreement was reached, the Nikkei index rose by 42.6438+0%. Therefore, the initial appreciation of the yen has the greatest positive stimulus to the stock market and the most significant impetus to the index. Looking back at today's China stock market, since the Lunar New Year in 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index has soared almost all the way. Although there have been some ups and downs in the middle, no one can stop the "mad cow" China stock market. Just like the appreciation of RMB at the beginning, the barrier of Shanghai Composite Index has been easily broken through one after another, all the way to the historical "commanding height" of 4300. China bear market, which has been silent for many years, seems to suddenly prosper, and the whole China stock market is prosperous. Countless retail investors have taken out the money originally stored in the bank and invested in the stock market. But think about it carefully, who is the real "banker" of China stock market? Bankers in the traditional sense don't talk about it. The main discussion here is foreign hot money. The appreciation of RMB, like a big cake freshly baked, attracts the appetite of hot money all over the world. The appreciation of RMB means that RMB is more "valuable". Specifically, when the RMB exchange rate was 8.27, 100 USD could only be exchanged for 827 RMB, and now 100 USD can only get around 770 yuan. On the surface, China has taken advantage, but the hot money of foreign speculative groups is not so stupid. Before the China government announced the appreciation of RMB, they exchanged a large amount of dollars (estimated to be hundreds of billions of dollars) into RMB through various channels to bet on the appreciation of RMB. After the hot money enters China, it will invest, mainly in the stock market and real estate, so that the stock market and real estate in China will prosper and countless China funds will follow suit, creating a prosperous scene. Then the RMB really began to appreciate, and foreign speculators were so happy. On the one hand, their investment in China has been rewarded, even if the RMB exchange rate has not changed, according to the normal profit rate of 20% a year, 654.38+000 billion US dollars (according to the exchange rate at that time, it was nearly 654.38+000 billion RMB). On the other hand, when the RMB appreciates to 7.70, the hot money is ready to get away with it. According to this exchange rate, 654.38+00 billion RMB has become 654.38+03 billion US dollars. This one in and one out, foreign speculators made $3 billion in vain! Besides, the real speculative hot money in China is hundreds of billions of dollars! The hot money has been withdrawn. What about China? The loss of huge funds will inevitably lead people to lose confidence in the market, and then the market will collapse, and the people of China will suffer.

Influence on China's foreign trade

It can be said that the appreciation of RMB has the greatest impact on China's export trade. The basis of Sino-US trade friction is China's huge trade surplus with the United States. As soon as the RMB appreciated, China's currency advantage disappeared. Originally, goods with China 100 RMB only cost a little more than 12 dollars in the United States, but now the same goods cost nearly 13 dollars in the United States. Obviously, the appreciation of RMB is unfavorable to China's export trade. On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB also makes China lose its attraction for foreign investors to invest and build factories in the Mainland, because the production cost has increased. The same wages are paid to workers in China. In the past, it was only 108 USD, but now it is 108 USD. China's huge trade surplus with the United States should be eased with the appreciation of RMB, but we can see that the appreciation of RMB is limited after all. At present, the RMB has appreciated by about 7%. The United States hopes that the RMB will appreciate by 10% ~ 40% to solve the trade problem between China and the United States. Experts predict that China's economy can bear the RMB appreciation range of 7% ~ 10%. Therefore, it is unlikely that China will let the RMB appreciate sharply for its own benefit. In fact, foreign capital and joint ventures account for a large part of China's seemingly huge export volume. In 2006, about 60% of China's more than 600 billion exports were exported by foreign-funded enterprises. Real domestic enterprises include state-owned enterprises, collective enterprises and private enterprises. In short, China people own less than 50%. At present, the main vein of Sino-US economic and trade relations has become American investment-made in China-American consumption. To give a simple example, suppose that the cost of producing a pair of Nike shoes in the United States was $20, and now it is $4 offshore in China. Among them, the cost of buying this pair of shoes from abroad in China is $2, and the profit of China enterprises is $0.4. What China earns is the wages of employees and the taxes paid by enterprises. The wage level in China is much lower than that in the United States, and many provinces and cities have preferential tax policies for foreign-funded enterprises, so we have not benefited much from these two things. But it is such a situation that forces our enterprises to move towards high added value. Enterprises with low added value will be eliminated by the market sooner or later, and the appreciation of RMB will undoubtedly accelerate this process.

The appreciation of RMB is a great blow to China's exports, but we should also see its benefits. I think the biggest advantage of RMB appreciation is that it partially calms the anger of the United States. Let's not discuss whether it is right or wrong for the United States to blame the RMB exchange rate for its trade deficit with China. Relying only on the economic strength and global influence of the United States, we have to look him in the eye. 40% of our annual exports go to the United States, which is a market highly dependent on China. If we cling to the RMB exchange rate and "confront the United States", I believe China will eventually suffer big losses. A flexible exchange rate policy is our goal. We can neither blindly obey the United States, nor be arrogant and "play for real" with him. After all, our strength is not enough. The flexible response to American censure is to buy more time for China's modernization. Another advantage is that it is conducive to China's economic restructuring. On the surface, China's huge surplus is perfect, but there is still a crisis lurking behind it. The general trade surplus shows the strength of a country's exports, commodity advantages and economic strength. But the huge surplus shows that the country is too dependent on foreign markets. For example, in 2006, our foreign trade export volume was $969 1 billion, accounting for more than 30% of the total GDP. The huge surplus represents the corresponding huge production capacity. If one day China and the United States oppose each other and the United States restricts the import of goods from China, who will our products be sold to? Can we digest so many commodities with our current sluggish domestic demand? This will inevitably lead to the bankruptcy of some export-oriented enterprises and the unemployment of employees. Isn't it still China's loss? Now an appropriate appreciation of the renminbi will ease the pressure in this regard.

Impact on various industries

1. Foreign exchange liabilities will benefit obviously, mainly including aviation, trade and other industries. Because these industries have more foreign exchange liabilities (especially US dollar liabilities), the appreciation of RMB will bring exchange gains and losses to these industries, especially airlines, which often have huge US dollar liabilities, so they benefit obviously.

2. Import-oriented industries of raw materials or parts will also benefit, mainly including papermaking (pulp import), steel (iron ore import), automobile (some important parts import), petrochemical (crude oil import), chemical fiber plastics (raw materials import), aviation (aviation equipment import), clothing (high-grade fabrics import) and other industries. Because these industries need to import related raw materials and parts every year, the appreciation of RMB will reduce the costs of these industries to some extent. For example, 70% of the pulp cost in China's paper industry, and 38% of the pulp is imported. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB will obviously reduce the cost of the paper industry, thus obviously improving the profitability of the paper industry.

3. Investment products industries will also be sought after by certain funds, mainly including real estate with land value, park development and other industries, and coal and non-ferrous metals with resource value. Due to the small appreciation, overseas funds may gain appreciation gains by investing in land or real estate owned by companies in these industries, thus increasing the attractiveness of funds to these investment products industries, thus triggering price increases.

4. Traditional export-oriented industries are directly impacted, including textiles and clothing, household appliances, machinery and other products. Due to the rising cost brought by RMB appreciation, the profit rate of these industries will be reduced, but we think that only 2% appreciation will have little impact. Companies in these industries, especially leading enterprises, will have strong anti-risk ability through cost reduction and appropriate price transfer.

5. Industries with international pricing will be affected to some extent, including non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, steel, electronic components and other industries with international pricing. Because the prices of products in these industries are greatly influenced by international prices, in the case of RMB pricing, the appreciation of RMB will reduce its selling price, which will lead to a decline in profits.

6. Industries replaced by imported products will also be adversely affected to a certain extent, including automobiles, construction machinery, steel and household appliances. The products of these industries are fiercely competitive with imported products. The appreciation of RMB will lead to the decline of RMB quotation of imported products, which will reduce the competitiveness of local products to a certain extent and further affect the profitability of these industries.

7. Foreign trade service industry may be indirectly damaged. Because the appreciation of RMB may bring some adverse effects to China's foreign trade, especially exports, and may bring some adverse effects to ports, airports and shipping, but the appreciation may also stimulate the increase of imports to a certain extent, so its impact is relatively small.

The impact of RMB appreciation on various industries is complex and multi-angle, and it is often a combination of negative and positive. Summary analysis, combined with the change analysis of profitability of key companies in various industries under the circumstance of RMB appreciation of 2%, shows that RMB appreciation is good for aviation, paper making, park development, real estate, communication operation, communication equipment and other industries, but it is not good for other industries except aviation, and has some negative effects on steel, audio-visual equipment, oil exploitation, textiles and clothing, components and other industries. However, judging from the performance changes of key companies we track, other industries are generally relatively neutral.