I. Main features and development trends of the current international situation

At present, the international environment facing China tends to be relaxed, which provides a period of strategic opportunities for China's development, but it also faces challenges.

1. After the financial crisis, the world economy is facing challenges.

The subprime mortgage crisis, which originated in the United States in 2007, quickly spread to the whole world under the wave of globalization, triggering a global financial crisis. The financial crisis quickly spread from local to global, from developed countries to emerging countries and developing countries, and affected the real economy. The United States, the euro zone, Japan and some emerging market countries have fallen into recession one after another, and the world economic growth has slowed down significantly. In 2008, the world economic growth rate dropped to 2.5%, and in 2009, there was the first negative growth since World War II.

In the face of the crisis, the world's major economies have joined hands to deal with it. The G20, composed of major developed countries and major developing countries, has replaced the original G7 and become an important organization for world economic coordination. Under the active advocacy of the United States and other western developed countries, after the financial crisis, the G-20 held three summits and reached an agreement to formulate an action plan to stimulate world economic growth and domestic economy in response to the global financial crisis. With the global intervention, these measures to deal with the financial crisis have achieved initial results, especially in the second half of 2009. In the third quarter of 2009, the US economy grew by 2.8% and China by 8.9%. As an economic barometer, the international crude oil price rebounded to $80 per barrel in June 2009, setting a new high since the financial crisis. Therefore, the International Monetary Fund predicts that the world economic growth rate will increase from-1. 1% in 2009 to 3. 1%, and the World Bank also predicts that the global GDP growth will reach 2.7% in 20 10.

However, there are still many uncertainties about whether the development of the global economy has completely bottomed out and whether the current recovery can be sustained, and the development of the world economy still faces severe challenges. It is manifested in the following aspects:

First, the uncertainty of the global financial system and the non-performing assets within financial institutions have not been completely solved. According to statistics, the potential losses of global financial institutions in the crisis are as high as $3.6 trillion, half of which have not been exposed. Once all the bad assets in these financial systems are exposed, there will be some troubles in the market, which may deteriorate sharply. In 2009, Dubai World announced that it would delay the payment of more than $3 billion in debt, which immediately affected the global financial market. In addition, the credit of the Greek government was downgraded, and the national debt was downgraded, which also caused fluctuations in the global financial market. All this shows that the global financial system is generally stable, but it is very fragile.

Second, the policy application of countries to deal with the financial crisis is moving towards the limit. The first is the use of fiscal policy. The fiscal deficits of all countries have created the highest records since World War II. The financial situation of Europe, the United States, Japan and all developed economies is very bad. According to the American Moody's Investment Service Company, from 2007 to 20 10, the global public debt will increase by about 15.3 trillion US dollars, of which 80% will come from the Western Group of Seven. At present, the public debt of some EU member states has exceeded 50% of GDP. As of September 25th, 2009, the total global government debt reached a record high, reaching $36.237 trillion, and the growth rate also reached 13.2 1%. Therefore, countries cannot use fiscal policy to stimulate their economies. The second is monetary policy. In order to stimulate economic growth, countries generally adopt the way of reducing interest rates, but at present, the interest rates of countries, especially developed economies, are already very low, for example, the interest rate in the United States has dropped to 0-0.25. So there is little room for monetary policy to stimulate economic development.

Third, the developed economies face a decent high unemployment rate. The unemployment rate in the United States reached 10 and 1 1% in June 2009, the highest level in 26 years. In June, 2065438+00, although the unemployment rate dropped slightly, it was still as high as 9.7%. According to the data released by the US Department of Labor on February 24th, 20 10, as of the week of February 20th, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time increased by 22,000 to 496,000, the highest level since 2009 (1 14), and much higher than the expected decrease of market participants 13000. In addition, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits has also increased. In 2009, the number of unemployed people in the euro zone increased by 1 1 ten thousand, and the total number of unemployed people reached15.7 million. In February 2009, ten years after the establishment of the euro zone, the unemployment rate rose to 10% for the first time. According to the forecast data released by the European Commission from June 5438 to February 2009, the unemployment rate in the 27 EU countries will rise to 10.3% in 20 10, and the total number of unemployed people will reach 28 million. The prospect of solving the unemployment problem in developed countries is not optimistic, especially since this unemployment involves some structural problems. Structural transformation makes the future employment prospects very difficult. Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood, and the sharp rise in unemployment rate will continue to hit consumption in developed countries, aggravate the rise of trade protectionism and make economic recovery more slow and difficult. In other countries in the world, especially some poor countries, high unemployment risks causing social unrest.

Fourth, the tendency of trade protectionism is on the rise. Under the background that the world economy has not recovered, trade protectionism has risen. According to the report of the International Economic and Trade Organization, in a short period of five months from April to August, 2009, G20 introduced 9 1 new potential protectionist measures. According to the statistics of the World Bank, since the outbreak of the financial crisis, 17 countries in the G20 have introduced about 78 protectionist measures, 47 of which have been put into practice. In order to protect their own interests, some developed countries have publicly introduced some protectionist policies. For example, in the $838 billion economic stimulus plan passed in early 2009, it was stipulated that domestic products must be used.

Fifth, the US dollar exchange rate has intensified the turmoil. The United States has been running a debt economy for a long time, issuing a large number of national debt. The social welfare expenditure in the United States consumes a large amount of fiscal revenue, and the government debt has accumulated over time, becoming the champion of debt to other countries in the world today. According to the data released by the U.S. Treasury Department, the total fiscal deficit of the U.S. federal government will reach about 9.05 trillion dollars in the next 10 year. This situation will aggravate the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate, thus affecting the stability of the world financial system.

2. The international security situation has generally eased, but the challenges remain severe.

The report of the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out: "Peace and development are still the themes of the times. Seeking peace, development and cooperation has become an irresistible trend of the times. " In the last century, mankind experienced the catastrophe of two world wars and the confrontation and suffering of the Cold War, and paid a heavy price. People all over the world hate war and are afraid of it. Because people all over the world love and yearn for peace, there has been no new world war on earth for more than 50 years after the war. With the in-depth development of world politics and economy, the danger of world war is further reduced. Especially after the end of the cold war, the United States became the only superpower in the world and lost its opponent to launch a nuclear war, thus reducing the possibility of a world war. At present, with the rapid development of economic globalization and the rapid progress of science and technology, the economies and trade of all countries in the world have infiltrated each other, the mutual demand in the fields of social and military security has increased, the dependence of all countries in the world has increased, and the fields of common interests have expanded. Developing economy, innovating science and technology and improving comprehensive national strength have become the primary goals pursued by all countries, so maintaining world peace and stability has increasingly become the knowledge of all countries, especially big countries. Under the current trend of multipolarization of the international structure, although there are still various differences and conflicts of interest among major powers, they are no longer in the nature of all-round confrontation. Major countries pay more and more attention to communication and exchanges, strengthen cooperation and avoid confrontation, thus maintaining peace and stability of the entire international situation. But the world is still very restless. The factors that threaten world peace and development still exist and have new manifestations. In short, the current factors threatening world peace and development are mainly reflected in the following aspects:

First of all, the widening gap between North and South has affected world security. Under the tide of globalization, the world economy has made great progress, but this income distribution is seriously unbalanced, and the gap between developed and developing countries is getting bigger and bigger, which has seriously affected world peace and development. According to the statistics of American economic historian Madison, since 1820, the world population has increased five times, and the actual output of the world is 50 times. However, these huge gains are unevenly distributed. 1820, the per capita income ratio of the richest and poorest countries in the world is 3: 1, 19 13,1,1950, 35: 65430. 1992 is 72: 1, 1997 is about 74: 1, in 2000 it was nearly 75: 1, and in 2006 it was about141:/. The number of underdeveloped countries in the world has not decreased, but has been increasing, from 36 in 1987 to 49 in 2009. The root of this "digital divide" lies in the unreasonable old international political and economic order. Due to the long-term poverty and backwardness of some developing countries and the influence of various external factors, potential ethnic, religious and social contradictions are constantly intensifying, and conflicts and wars are constantly emerging. If this situation continues, it will not only be detrimental to world development and prosperity, but also threaten world peace and stability.

Second, the interweaving of traditional security and non-traditional security affects world security. Traditional security threats mainly refer to the military threats faced by the country and the military factors that threaten international security. At present, although the international situation is generally stable, hot issues and local conflicts are emerging one after another, and defense expenditure is increasing year by year. In 2006, the global defense expenditure increased by 3.5% compared with 2005. In 2007, the global defense expenditure was 1.339 trillion US dollars, an increase of 6% compared with 2006. In 2008, the global defense expenditure was 1.464 trillion US dollars, accounting for 2.4% of the global GDP. US military spending increased by 9.7% compared with 2007, accounting for 48% of the global total. From 65438 to 2008, the increase of US military expenditure accounted for 58% of the global increase. This situation means that countries still regard military development as an important factor to safeguard their own security, and the threat of war between countries still exists.

At present, the turbulent situation in Iraq, the North Korean nuclear issue, the Iranian nuclear issue and the ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict have seriously affected world peace, stability and development. First of all, the existence of these problems directly affects world peace. Secondly, these hot issues occur in sensitive areas of international geopolitics and geo-economy, which directly or indirectly affect the strategic interests of big countries in these areas, complicate the interests of big countries, increase hidden dangers in the relations between big countries, and even lead to intensified contradictions among big countries in certain circumstances, thus threatening the peace and stability of the whole world.

In addition, the global proliferation of nuclear weapons remains a serious problem. According to the research report of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, as of the beginning of 2007, the number of nuclear warheads that can be launched by missiles or carried by aircraft in the world is about 1 1530. In addition, more and more countries have or are trying to have nuclear weapons, such as India, Pakistan and North Korea. This situation is a big hidden danger to world security.

Non-traditional security threats refer to factors that threaten the survival of sovereign countries and human beings in addition to traditional security threats such as military, political and diplomatic threats, mainly including terrorism, drug trafficking and smuggling, serious infectious diseases, piracy, illegal immigration, environmental security, economic and financial security and information security. Non-traditional security poses a serious threat to world development and human survival, and its harm even exceeds that of war. 9? The "1 1" incident claimed nearly 3,000 lives, exceeding the number of Americans killed in the Pearl Harbor incident. The Indian Ocean tsunami in June 5438+February 2004 claimed nearly 300,000 lives and caused immeasurable economic losses to the countries concerned. Sri Lanka alone reached $654.38+0.3 billion-$654.38+0.5 billion, accounting for 6.5% of its total economy. 1997 the financial crisis in southeast Asia has caused the wealth of many countries to shrink sharply, and even triggered political and social unrest. In recent decades, environmental pollution has caused global greenhouse effect and brought frequent disasters to mankind. All these factors seriously affect the security of the world and the survival of mankind.

Third, the existence and development of hegemonism and power politics affect world security. After the cold war, hegemonism and power politics not only did not quit the historical stage, but intensified, affecting world peace and development.

4. The competition of the world scientific and technological revolution is becoming increasingly fierce.

After World War II, the new scientific and technological revolution marked by the wide application of high and new technologies such as microelectronics, information technology, new material technology, biotechnology, energy technology, space technology and ocean engineering technology is still in the ascendant. In today's world, high-tech industries such as information, biology, materials and energy are developing rapidly. The average contribution rate of science and technology to world economic growth has risen from less than 20% at the beginning of the 20th century to about 80% at present. The development of science and technology, especially strategic high-tech development, has become a decisive force in economic and social development, and the strength of science and technology increasingly determines the competitiveness of a country.

Faced with the rapid development of science and technology and increasingly fierce international competition, countries all over the world have taken countermeasures. Developed countries actively seize the commanding heights of high-tech products and services on the basis of advanced science and technology, and newly industrialized countries and some developing countries are also increasing their investment in science and technology in an attempt to change their unfavorable competitive position in science and technology. At present, the policies adopted by major countries in the world to enhance their scientific and technological competitiveness have the following characteristics:

First, improve the level of decision-making, strengthen macro-control and increase investment in science and technology. More and more countries adopt the practice that heads of government personally lead scientific and technological work, and set up a presidential (prime minister) scientific advisory Committee composed of strategic scientists and economic experts to make suggestions on scientific and technological policies and major scientific and technological plans. The United States, South Korea, India and other countries have established national science and technology committees headed by heads of state or government, which have greatly improved the macro-decision-making ability of national science and technology work. Many governments regard investment in science and technology as a strategic investment with huge returns. On the one hand, we will greatly increase investment in science and technology, on the other hand, we will establish a mechanism conducive to increasing investment in science and technology.

Second, implement an active and effective development strategy for scientific and technological talents. Talent is the basis of competition. Many countries have revised their immigration policies and increased their efforts to attract foreign students and scholars to solve the shortage of skilled personnel. Finland's highest tax rate for high-income foreigners who master advanced technology has been reduced to 58% of the local people; Japan plans to take various measures in the next few years to make the proportion of foreign researchers in the total number of scientific and technological personnel reach 30%; The United States has greatly relaxed the restrictions on immigration of high-tech talents.

Third, build a national innovation system and promote the combination of science and technology and economy. Facing the challenge of knowledge economy and technological innovation, institutional innovation is highly valued by all countries. The national innovation system is a network and a systematic project. The knowledge flow among people, enterprises and institutions is the key to the innovation system, and industry, academia, finance and government are indispensable organic components of this system. In such a national innovation system, enterprises are the main body of technological innovation, scientific research institutions and universities are the scientific and technological support and knowledge source of technological innovation of enterprises, intermediaries are the bridge of knowledge diffusion and transfer, the government is the policy maker and the creator of development environment, and finance is an indispensable and important condition for fully realizing the market value of innovation.

Second, the impact of the current international situation on China.

To analyze the current international situation, the most important issue is how to understand the influence of the international environment on the important strategic opportunity period faced by China in the process of building a well-off society in an all-round way. This involves not only the judgment of the current situation, but also the understanding of some deep-seated problems in the long-term changing trend of the world today.

1. After the financial crisis, China will face increasingly fierce economic competition.

In this wave of financial crisis, although China's economy has also been impacted and affected, its economic development speed is still outstanding, maintaining an 8% growth rate, and its economic aggregate is approaching Japan. This situation makes more countries, especially developed countries, regard China as their competitors and put pressure on China in various fields of economic development to guard against China.

First of all, Europe and the United States jointly put pressure on the RMB exchange rate issue, demanding RMB appreciation. In February, 2003, at the meeting of finance ministers of the Group of Seven, Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa proposed to follow the Plaza Accord of 1985 to let the RMB appreciate. A game about RMB exchange rate has continued since then. After the financial crisis, world trade has shrunk severely, and the trade deficit of developed economies, especially the United States, is serious. These countries blame this on the undervaluation of the renminbi. Therefore, after the crisis, Europe and the United States joined forces to force the RMB to appreciate, and increased the accusation of the RMB exchange rate. 1 1 in March this year, when US President Barack Obama delivered a trade policy speech at the annual meeting of the Export-Import Bank of the United States, he called for further transition of RMB to a "market-oriented exchange rate mechanism". He also said that the US government will decide whether to designate China as a "currency manipulator" in the semi-annual report of the Ministry of Finance released on April 15. Once China is positioned as a "currency manipulator", the United States can impose trade sanctions on China. China's export growth accounts for more than 30% of the total economic growth. If the sharp appreciation of RMB will inevitably weaken the competitiveness of exports, then the reduction of exports will lead to the slowdown of economic growth and the reduction of employment opportunities.

Secondly, the stability of the domestic financial market is challenged by the turmoil in the international financial market. At present, countries have put delisting on the agenda, which shows that the impact of the financial crisis has weakened, but it may trigger another turmoil in the international financial market in the short term, including a large number of international "hot money" flowing out of China. Once a large amount of hot money flows out in a short period of time, the impact on China's capital market cannot be underestimated.

Third, China will face more and more serious trade protectionism. Since the second half of 2009, the economies of various countries have shown signs of recovery. As countries get out of the financial crisis and achieve economic recovery, the central topic of the crisis is no longer to discuss how to get out of recession, but how to maintain fiscal sustainability and ensure domestic employment. In order to alleviate the pressure of economic growth, finance and employment and the political pressure of domestic people, trade protectionism will become the choice of many governments. In 2009, China surpassed Germany to become the world's largest exporter, accounting for more than 9% of the global export share. However, while China's export competitiveness has increased, China is also facing more trade frictions. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, 70% of global protectionist measures in 2009 were related to China's export trade. By the end of 2009, China has been the country with the largest number of anti-dumping investigations in the world for 15 years and the country with the largest number of countervailing investigations in the world for 4 years. Among them, from June 2006 to October 2009 10, especially since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the United States launched ***23 "double opposition" investigations against China. In 2009 alone, the United States launched 10 "double opposition" investigations against China. Therefore, under the background of the slow development of the world economy and the increasing protectionism, China will face increasingly fierce economic competition.

2. The security environment in China is facing challenges.

From the perspective of traditional security, there are still hidden dangers in the international security environment facing China. At present, the world military security situation is beginning to undergo profound adjustments and changes. The world's major military forces, especially the United States and its allies, have entered a new round of military expansion.

First of all, it is reflected in the increasing military spending of various countries. Even after the financial crisis, although the global economy showed an overall downward trend, world military spending still showed a large-scale growth. If this situation continues, there may be an arms race among major powers and world peace and security will be threatened.

Secondly, major countries, especially the United States, are stepping up the adjustment and reform of military strategy. The focus of US military preparations has changed from winning two large-scale regional wars at the same time to a "all-round" war, including the so-called "national war" in which the comprehensive strength of the country and even its allies is used to deal with "potential global competitors". To this end, the US military has begun a series of practical military preparations and deployments. In the adjustment of American military strategy, there are more and more factors involving China, and China has become a "potential military competitor" in the imagination of forces such as the United States and Japan. According to the US military website, at present, the United States has set up 5 1 military bases around China, from Japan and South Korea to Guam, from Australia to the Indian Ocean to Central Asia. The density of American bases around China is even denser than that of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In addition, the United States actively develops military relations with India to make up for the weakness of the US military in the southwest of China, which makes the US-India military cooperation have some very positive "strategic implications". The United States indicated that as a means to deal with China, it is necessary to improve the US military's combat capability in the Western Pacific. According to foreign media reports, the United States is strengthening its strategic strength in the Pacific Ocean, transferring some strategic nuclear submarines from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, and improving nuclear warheads.

The security risks brought by the surrounding environment in China should not be underestimated. First of all, the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula may deteriorate at any time. Once the situation on the Korean Peninsula deteriorates, China will bear the brunt of the impact. Japanese, Indian and other neighboring countries continue to strengthen military expansion, which will also pose a challenge to China's security environment; The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction also poses a security threat to our country. India and Pakistan crossed the nuclear threshold and completed the actual deployment of nuclear weapons. North Korea exploded a nuclear weapon in September 2006, and Iran is actively developing nuclear weapons. The monopoly of nuclear weapons has been broken, and the world has entered a period of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, which poses a serious threat to the survival and development of human society. Especially in China, there are real nuclear threats in both east and west directions, which make our national security face severe challenges.

From the perspective of non-traditional security, China is also facing threats. Global environmental pollution, such as global warming, cross-border crimes and financial crisis, will affect the security environment of China.

3. China's position in the multipolar structure is increasing day by day, and it is also facing unipolar pressure.

Under the trend of multipolarization in the world, China is facing good opportunities for development. With the rapid development of China's economy, China's influence in all aspects of the world is increasing day by day, and China is active in more and more international places. However, judging from the current development trend, the United States increasingly regards China as its main competitor and exerts increasing pressure on China in various fields.

After the Cold War, especially since the beginning of 2 1 century, the nature of Sino-US strategic relations has changed from cooperation to opposition. As the United States is the only superpower after the Cold War, and has indicated that it wants to dominate the world order, facing the increasingly powerful China, the United States has stepped up its defense against China. This intention has been clearly stated in the four-year defense report of the US Department of Defense from 65438 to 0997. The national defense strategy report of the United States in 2008 paid more attention to China, and its "dual policy" towards China became clearer. In the 2005 edition of the National Defense Report, although China was listed as a "key country" that the United States needs to focus on, it was explicitly mentioned only once; In this report in 2008, China was mentioned as many as 17 times, and all parts put China-related content before Russia, which reflects that China is playing an increasingly important role in the global strategic layout of the United States.

H Greenway, an American scholar, predicts that by 2025, China will become the world's "largest economy" and the United States will rank second. When China's GDP is equal to or greater than that of the United States, the United States will not be able to dominate the world. Therefore, under the background of the resurgence of American conservatism, the United States proposed that China was a "potential rival" or a "strategic competitor" of the United States. Pessimists even think that there may be a military conflict between China and the United States.

4. China is facing the competition of the world scientific and technological revolution.

The competitiveness of science and technology directly affects the level of economic development. Compared with the development history of science and technology in developed countries for hundreds of years, the truly stable and rapid development of science and technology has only been more than 20 years since the reform and opening up, and the foundation is still quite weak, and the continuous accumulation is very insufficient; The scientific and technological system is still in the transitional stage of continuous adjustment and improvement; As a large developing country, on the one hand, economic and social development faces many problems that need to be solved urgently, on the other hand, its disposable financial resources are limited. Judging from the current situation, China, South Korea, the representative of newly industrialized countries, and Russia and India, which are big countries in science and technology, are at a medium level of development. Therefore, there is still a long way to go to narrow the gap between China and developed countries in scientific and technological development.