Present situation and future of international economic situation
After adjustment, economic globalization continues to develop at an unprecedented speed and scale, and the dependence of the global economy continues to rise. The global redistribution of global capital and production technology factors has caused great and profound changes in the global political and economic structure. The current international economic situation has seven characteristics.
(1) The world economy is growing rapidly. The economic development of developed countries such as the United States, euro zone countries and Japan has kept the world economy growing at a high speed, and the economies of developing countries have shown a trend of mutual promotion and step-by-step development.
In 2007, the world economy will still maintain a growth rate of nearly 4%. The American economy has experienced steady ups and downs. In 2006, the export volume of the United States was surpassed by Germany, and the information index was lower than that of Northern Europe. The subprime mortgage crisis has eroded and decomposed the economic advantages of the United States, and its negative impact is still expanding. Major western countries are facing the strongest external competition since industrialization. Eurasia has become the main stage of the world economy. According to the statistics of the World Bank, Eurasia's economic aggregate accounts for 62% of the world's total, and its accumulated wealth is twice that of the United States. In 2006, the gross domestic product of "new Europe" countries almost doubled compared with 2003. At the same time, developing countries, which account for 80% of the world's population, have entered a period of rapid economic growth, strengthened their position in international trade, international investment and international division of labor, further increased their influence on the world economy, and changed the growth pattern of the world economy. The total economic output of developing countries accounts for about 20% of the world, and its contribution rate to world economic growth has risen to 30%.
(2) With the development and promotion of financial innovation, especially financial derivatives, the degree of financial integration has improved, and the global financial industry has experienced explosive growth.
The disorderly flow and speculation of huge international capital not only cause great damage to the economy of developing countries, but also make it difficult for developed countries to be immune to it. According to the latest report of McKinsey & Company, the total core assets of the global financial industry have reached 140 trillion US dollars. The capital market has further become the main body of the global financial market. The proportion of bank assets in the total global financial assets decreased from 42% in 1980 to 27% in 2005, and financial assets were further concentrated in developed countries. The proportion of financial assets in the gross national product of developed countries jumped to 330% on average. On the one hand, the trend of "economic financialization" promotes the effective allocation of global resources, on the other hand, it also increases the instability, speculation and risk of the global economy.
(3) The mobility of international capital market and labor market is enhanced, and the global flow of production factors forms a global market.
The international capital market is more mature, and there are more and more forms of capital flow. The global labor market is increasingly integrated. According to the statistics of the International Labor Organization, 700 million people from developing countries will enter the global labor market in the next 10 year. The formation of the global industrial chain and the rational and irrational allocation of resources are further revealed, and the unbalanced global growth model is shaping a new global economic structure. Generally speaking, the liberalization of international trade and investment financial markets has enabled the flow of production factors to achieve "optimal allocation" on a global scale. From a national perspective, the income distribution and social cost distribution of globalization are seriously unbalanced, the gap between poor and rich countries is widening, and the polarization between losers and winners is intensifying. The rate of return on capital has reached a new high, while the rate of return on labor is getting lower and lower, leading to inequality among countries. Developed countries dominate the current international trade, investment, finance and international division of labor system. In contrast, the population of developing countries accounts for 3/4 of the world, and the total economic output only accounts for 1/4. Black Africa will not succeed in getting rid of poverty until at least 2047. In the northern camp, the United States, Europe and Japan are the three pillars of the international economy, but because the United States pursues economic unilateralism and attempts to monopolize international economic decision-making, conflicts of economic interests among the three parties occur from time to time. The gap between the economic development levels of the southern camps has widened, the basic demands and interests of economic development issues have been greatly divided, and South-South cooperation has shown obvious diversification and high complexity.
(4) Emerging market economies are becoming increasingly concrete, accelerating their integration into the global economic system and injecting new vitality into economic globalization.
The market economy system of a large number of emerging developing countries is becoming more and more mature. The economies of East Asia, Latin America and the Commonwealth of Independent States have accelerated in an all-round way, while those of Africa and the Middle East have taken off. These countries' domestic capital markets are developing rapidly, their dependence on foreign investment is obviously declining, their awareness of protecting and utilizing their own energy and resources is strengthened, and some export-oriented developing countries are gradually diversifying their trade structure. Emerging developing countries such as "BRIC" and "New Diamond 1 1" continue to lead the economic growth of developing countries, become the strongest economic growth point in the future, and promote the development that affects globalization. In terms of exchange rate, the GDP of India, Russia and Brazil all exceeded the 1 trillion dollar mark this year, and they were promoted to 12 before the world economy. From 200 1 to 2007, the ranking of China, Russian and Indian in global GDP, export, foreign exchange reserves and total stock market value jumped by 4 places on average. The proportion of Asian countries' exports to the United States dropped from 25.5% in 1993 to 6.5% at present.
It is worth noting that the attractiveness of developing countries to international capital continues to increase. Mutual investment among developing countries is growing rapidly, mainly in Asia and Africa. At present, the global foreign exchange reserves total 5.4 trillion US dollars, most of which are in the hands of developing countries. Recently, developing countries began to invest part of their foreign exchange reserves in the form of "sovereign wealth funds", which may be as high as $65,438 +0.5 trillion. The main direction of investment is the securities market of developed countries and transnational mergers and acquisitions, and the related trends will have an important impact on the international capital market.
(5) The development models of North and South countries have increased, multilateral coordination in the economic field has gradually become a trend, emerging powers have accelerated their rise, and economic power has accelerated "multipolarization".
Under the background of economic globalization, developed countries and developing countries use each other, and the relationship between North and South is in a complicated state. The rapid revival of Russia and the accelerated revitalization of India have broken China's unique situation after the Cold War and initially formed the first echelon of emerging powers. Some developing countries have entered or approached the ranks of economic sub-powers, and the need to maintain the stability of the world economic system and trade liberalization is constantly increasing. Their common interests with developed countries have increased and their interdependence has deepened. Therefore, it is increasingly important and urgent to conduct dialogue and cooperation in the economic and financial fields. "G8 +5" has become an important high-end platform to promote North-South dialogue. The Group of Twenty (G20) covers the most important developed and developing countries in the world, and has a strong "North-South" representation. In recent years, it has played an active role in coordinating the positions of developing countries and developed countries in responding to the financial crisis and promoting the stable development of world economy and finance. Canada's initiative to establish a "global summit forum" within the framework of the G-20 further reflects the trend of the international community to strengthen multilateral dialogue and coordination.
(VI) Various regional or bilateral free trade arrangements have developed rapidly, international trade and transnational investment have become active again, and negotiations on free trade areas are in the ascendant. It has become fashionable for emerging powers to form economic alliances with traditional powers through free trade agreements and other forms.
Regional economic cooperation is not only the inevitable product of countries following the trend of the times, but also a reasonable choice for relevant countries to slow down the disorderly impact of economic globalization based on regional development. The trend of regional economic cooperation and regional collectivization is accompanied by the development of economic globalization. This benign economic and trade interaction has promoted benign political development as a whole, and the possibility of a big country restarting the war is almost zero. Regional cooperation in East Asia, Latin America, Africa and other regions, with developing countries as the main body, has flourished. The momentum of regional cooperation among some developing countries has been strengthened and has become an important link connecting cooperation networks in different regions. Brazil, India and South Africa have established a three-country cooperation framework, and the economic ties between Asia and Africa, Asia and Latin America, and Latin America and the Middle East have become increasingly close. All countries are trying to accelerate the construction of regional groups through the mode of strong alliance and complementary advantages, realize the optimal allocation of markets and resources, and seek to occupy a favorable position in the new world economic structure. The United States is fully promoting the establishment of "Free Trade Area of the Americas", the European Union is taking advantage of its eastward expansion to accelerate the integration of finance and services in the region, MERCOSUR and the Andean Community, two major economic organizations in Latin America, have announced the acceleration of free trade negotiations, and East Asia 10+3 and Shanghai Cooperation Organization have developed in depth as two pillar mechanisms in Asia. In the future, international economic relations will gradually shift from contest and competition among countries to competition among regional economic groups, and the struggle and coordination around global economic and trade policies and financial system will mainly be carried out among economic groups.
(VII) The price of international energy resources has risen sharply, and the pace of adjustment of the international energy pattern has accelerated. The competition for strategic resources such as energy has become the biggest uncertain factor affecting international economic relations.
Some resource-rich countries, especially those rich in oil and gas resources, seized the opportunity of rising prices of resource products, not only made huge profits from them, but also enhanced their status and influence in the international economic system. In recent years, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates have advanced by an average of three places in the global GDP and per capita GDP rankings. Some oil-producing countries have strengthened their control over domestic oil resources and reduced the control of developed countries over their own oil resources. Oil-producing countries such as Iran and Venezuela regard energy as the main bargaining chip in the international struggle and openly "challenge" the United States. The United States currently controls nearly 70% of the world's oil resources in Central Asia, the Middle East, West Africa and North America. The global energy strategic pattern is obviously inclined to the United States, but in the world energy market pattern, Russia's influence plays an important role, and the strategic influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can not be underestimated. Japan strives to stabilize traditional oil sources and actively expand new channels. Countries such as the European Union actively increase strategic oil reserves and seek energy cooperation. With the strong recovery and prosperity of the world economy, the dependence of all parties on energy will increase day by day. Around oil and gas resources, transportation pipelines and market prices, big countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan will also launch a fierce international energy battle. At the same time, with the rapid growth of energy demand and the pursuit of energy security in emerging developing countries, related energy enterprises have developed rapidly, breaking the monopoly position of enterprises in developed countries in the international energy industry.
I. Signs of recovery in the world economy
Recently, with the economic recovery of the world's major economies to varying degrees, the worst world economic recession since World War II began to show signs of ending. According to statistics, in the second quarter of 2009, the economies of Germany, France and Japan all resumed positive growth, and the economic decline rate of the United States and Britain also slowed down significantly (see table 1). Among them, the real estate sales in the United States continued to rise, and the decline in the scale of private sector investment and the actual export of goods and services in the second quarter was significantly narrowed. Both net exports and investment contributed positively to GDP. In August, 2009, the confidence index of German service industry reached the highest level since June, 2006, 65438+ 10, and the investor confidence index also reached the best level in more than three years. Japan's GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.7% annually, showing positive growth for the first time in five quarters, which is the fastest among developed countries. In addition, Japan's purchasing managers' index, business environment index and consumer confidence index all stopped falling and rebounded. In the capital market, the GDP of major developed countries has increased by 6. 1% in the second quarter since March 2009. Brazil experienced its strongest rebound since 2003 in the second quarter, with GDP increasing by 6%. In Russia, where the economy contracted 10.9% in the second quarter, the manufacturing industry also showed signs of stopping falling in August. Faced with the gradual improvement of the economy and the continuous improvement of the financial market situation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Asian Development Bank have recently adjusted their previous pessimistic forecasts for world economic growth. Even the Nordic Union Bank's economic forecast report believes that the global economic recession has ended and the world economy will begin to recover. Politicians in major countries also expressed optimistic expectations for future economic growth. The latest World Economic Outlook released by IMF on June 5438+1 October1predicted that the world economy would shrink by 1. 1% IMF 2009 (see Table 2), which will be lower than the previous forecast of 20 10.
Second, the fragility of world economic recovery.
Although there are obvious signs of recovery in the world economy, the situation that the trade of major countries has rebounded sharply has not yet appeared. On the one hand, it shows that although the developed economies have recovered, the global economy will grow slowly in the future even if it recovers, due to the limitations of policy-led recovery, the time needed to restore confidence in financial markets, the obstacles of high unemployment rate to demand recovery, the difficulties brought by the increasing huge government budget deficit to refinancing, and the inflationary pressure and the difficulty of industrial restructuring in the new round of economic recovery. The IMF predicts that the global economic growth rate from 20 10 to 20 14 is only slightly higher than 4.7%, which is lower than the average level in previous years.
(A) the limitations of policy recovery
In the face of the worst economic recession since World War II, most governments in major developed countries have taken fiscal stimulus measures, with obvious results. This practice of relying on government policy means to save the crisis or stimulate future recovery has obvious characteristics of policy recovery. The consequence of policy recovery is that it is difficult for the government to seize the opportunity to go out, while enterprises and markets rely on government policies. In the long run, the market is distorted and it is difficult to restore the new market order. How and how the government withdraws from the market has become an important factor in the future economic trend. Deepening government intervention, too late withdrawal may lead to hyperinflation; If the government withdraws prematurely, the implementation of the previous stimulus plan will be discounted, which will affect the economic recovery. How to strike a balance between promoting economic recovery and curbing hyperinflation means that effective government withdrawal will become an important factor for future economic recovery. At present, major economies have temporarily reached a consensus on whether to continue to support the market, but it does not mean that there will be no contradictions in the future, nor does it mean that one party may withdraw from the market alone.
(B) the complexity of financial sector repair
This economic recession originated from the financial crisis, so the financial industry was hit the hardest. First, the bubble burst and wealth decreased. Second, the deleveraging in the financial sector, the relative reduction of funds, the future repair is very difficult and takes time; Third, the trend of financial bankruptcy, declining profits, and declining investment and employment has not been reversed. Even considering that some financial institutions have begun to repay the government's bailout funds, the "healing process" of financial institutions still takes time. Therefore, at present, the main source of funds to stimulate the economy still comes from the government's expanded expenditure, and the financial sector's reluctance to lend is still serious and may last for a certain period of time. At present, the difficulty of trade financing has become one of the obstacles to curb trade growth.
(3) Difficulties in solving the high unemployment rate
The financial crisis has cast a huge shadow on the employment situation in various countries. Since the unemployment rate rose rapidly in 2008, the global employment situation has been deteriorating since 2009 (see table 7). The lessons of previous financial crises show that after the economic recovery, it usually takes 4-5 years for the unemployment rate to gradually return to the pre-crisis level. The United Nations report predicts that in 2009-20 10, the number of unemployed people in the world will reach 50 million. The unemployment rate in developed economies will be higher than 10% by 20 10. In view of the fact that the most optimistic global international economic situation is estimated to start to improve in 20 10, and most countries can achieve accelerated economic growth only in 201-2015, so as to alleviate the unemployment problem caused by the financial crisis. The International Labour Organization predicts that it will take four to five years for the employment rate to return to the pre-crisis level. This means that the world may face a crisis of employment and social security lasting for 6-8 years. If large-scale employment growth cannot be resumed, the real growth of consumption is only a wish, and the driving force of economic growth is obviously restricted.
(D) the difficulty of government refinancing
Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, in order to get rid of recession and restore economic growth as soon as possible, major countries have issued a series of rescue plans, including increasing government financial arrangements, which has led to a rapid increase in government expenditure and a rising fiscal deficit. According to the U.S. government's forecast, in the next 10 year, the total fiscal deficit of the U.S. government will reach 7. 1 trillion dollars. In the next few years, the proportion of government debt in GDP in the euro zone and the European Union will rise from 69.3% and 6 1.5% in 2008 to 77.7% and 72.6% respectively, far exceeding the upper limit of 60%. Japan's national debt is already the highest among developed countries. With the economic crisis and large-scale fiscal stimulus measures leading to tax reduction, it is expected that Japan's financial situation will further deteriorate in the next few years. It is quite difficult to continue financing.
(e) The protracted nature of the new round of global inflation
After the financial crisis broke out, central banks around the world implemented loose monetary policy, printed a lot of money and relaxed credit. This undoubtedly laid a curse for the new round of inflation. The Federal Reserve has released and promised $65,438+02 trillion to save the financial system, accounting for about 83% of US GDP. If this large amount of money supply cannot be recovered in time, it will lead to hyperinflation. On the other hand, the long-term low interest rate policy stimulates the economy, which undoubtedly makes the liquidity flood and lays the foundation for a new round of global inflation. As predicted by a large number of research institutions, in the short term, the world economy will see a decline in growth and an increase in inflation. However, this decline in growth and the rise in inflation is not a temporary short-term performance, but a very profound cyclical adjustment. After 2009, the core characteristics of the world economy are likely to be slow recovery of economic growth and rising inflation.
Third, the seriousness of international trade competition.
Because the pace of economic recovery will not be too fast, the growth of import demand will not be obvious. At the same time, at present, not only emerging markets hope to ensure their own economic growth by resuming exports as soon as possible, but also developed economies try to expand or maintain economic recovery by increasing exports to external markets. Therefore, the current international trade environment is more severe than in the past, and the market competition is more intense. Both developed economies, emerging markets and developing countries, trade deficit countries and traditional trade surplus countries still hope that trade is the breakthrough of economic growth.
Source: Customs statistics of various countries show a warming trend, but the decline still maintains double digits. The WTO predicts that global trade will shrink by 10% in 2009 (excluding the influence of price and exchange rate), with developed countries shrinking by 14% and developing countries shrinking by 7%. The IMF predicts that world trade will decline by 1 1.9% in 2009, in which the actual import and export of developed countries will decrease by 13.7% and 13.6% respectively, and the emerging markets and developing countries will decrease by 9.5% and 7.2% respectively. 20 10 will resume growth, whether it is import or export, whether it is developed countries, emerging markets or developing countries.
Fourth, trade protectionism is the biggest scourge.
IT is worth noting that, like the IT revolution in the 1990s and the real estate boom in the early 20th century, the Obama administration has also put forward the view that new energy, environmental protection and other emerging industries will drive a new round of economic growth. At present, many countries have begun to attach importance to the development of green economy and low-carbon economy, giving priority to the development of new energy and environmental protection industries, and it seems that new energy is regarded as the lifeline. However, research and reality show that new energy technologies are still in the development stage, which is far from the complete marketization of emerging industries. Under the pressure that "ensuring growth" is still the theme of the current world economy, the policies of all countries are basically quick success and instant benefit, and there is no determination and action to fully establish a new economic growth model. At present, the most effective task of the policy is to seize the opportunity of recovery, expand exports and sell things to others. When every country does the same thing and just wants to sell things, when the new market demand is still limited and the economic recovery is slow and very fragile, it becomes instinct to defend its own market. Recently, various protectionist measures have appeared, all of which indicate the rampant trade protectionism.
5. China's challenges are still severe.
As a country with a persistent surplus, China's export trade has also faced unprecedented challenges since 2009. This is the biggest decline that China's foreign trade has not experienced for many years. At the same time, despite the signs of recovery in the world economy, consumption in developed markets dominated by the United States is still shrinking, and the savings rate is still rising, which indicates that "deleveraging" in the consumption field continues, which means that the motivation for China's export improvement is limited. More importantly, the recovery of the global economy will make liquidity more active, and excess liquidity will push up international commodity prices, which will not only worsen China's terms of trade, but also increase the cost pressure of domestic manufacturing. According to IMF data, the terms of trade of developed countries have been improving since 2009, while the terms of trade of developing countries and emerging markets have gradually deteriorated.
At present, the world economy is in the rising period of a new economic cycle. In the next five years ~ 10, the world economy will develop faster than in the 1980s and 1990s. The rise of developing powers such as China, Indian, Russian and Brazil will accelerate the adjustment of international economic relations and the evolution of the pattern, and the trend of multipolarization will become increasingly obvious. The "twin deficits" of American economy makes the development of world economy unbalanced. The depreciation of the US dollar and soaring oil prices have increased global economic risks, but the overall trend of the world economy is still improving.
Last year, the world economy grew by 5%, the best in nearly 30 years. This year, due to the weak economies of the euro zone and Japan, the global output growth rate will slow down.
The American economy is still the engine of the world economy. International institutions and economists generally believe that the US economy will continue to expand steadily. Despite the impact of high oil prices and the "twin deficits" of financial trade, the US economy is endogenous and its growth momentum will not change. The reason is: 1 Corporate investment recovered strongly and household consumption continued to grow. 2. Although the era of low interest rates has ended, the macro environment is still relaxed. Although the "new economy" lacks new impetus, its vitality reappears. In addition, the Bush administration's continued tax cuts, the weak dollar and the moderate decline in oil prices are all conducive to the continued expansion of the US economy.
Japan's economy is struggling to recover from an unexpected recession. Last year, international institutions were generally optimistic about the Japanese economy. Japan's economy will be at a standstill in the first half of this year and may resume growth in the second half. However, Japan's economic recovery depends not on domestic demand, but on foreign trade. Because, at present, it is still difficult to support Japan's economic recovery only by domestic demand. It can be seen that the current Japanese economic foundation is still fragile. First, the impact of soaring oil prices on the economy began to appear; Second, domestic demand is still not strong; Third, economic development depends heavily on exports.
Economic growth in the euro zone is slow, but the recovery momentum can be maintained. After two consecutive years of downturn, the euro zone economy grew by 2% last year. Although it is lower than the IMF's estimated 2.2%, it is still the best passive continuous appreciation of the euro in the past four years. High oil prices have begun to affect the economic recovery in the euro zone.
Asia's economic growth has peaked, but it is still the fastest growing region in the world. The macro-economy in this region is basically stable, the effect of intra-regional cooperation is prominent, and a mutually beneficial and win-win pattern is taking shape. The development trend is: East Asia will continue to grow rapidly, while the "four little dragons" will expand moderately; Southeast Asia's economy will recover steadily, and Vietnam and Thailand will be the best; South Asia's economic growth momentum is not weak, and India has become a regional leader; Central Asia's economy is growing rapidly, but the risks of resource-based economy will increase. In the next few years, Asia will maintain the high growth of the global economy and remain the growth center of the world economy.
The economy of developing countries will enter a period of steady growth. International institutions are generally optimistic about the medium and long-term economic prospects of developing countries. At present, developing countries have gained unprecedented opportunities for development: 1. Overall, the macroeconomic environment has improved. 2. The price of international raw materials continues to rise. 3. South-South economic and trade cooperation has been significantly strengthened. The acceleration of regional cooperation between Asia and Latin America, Asia and Africa, Asia and Latin America has promoted the vigorous development of pan-regional, regional and bilateral cooperation among developing countries. 4. Developing countries such as China, Indian, Russian, Brazil and South Africa have accelerated their economic development and played an unprecedented demonstration effect and leading role in the regional economy.
The current world economic situation and its influence on China
1. The world economy keeps growing, but the foreign trade market space in China is still relatively large. 2. The unbalanced development of the world economy has a great impact on China's processing trade, and the general trade has maintained rapid growth. . 3. The high unemployment rate in major economies aggravates the risk of world economic friction, and most of the trade frictions initiated by countries such as Europe and America are initiated by the unemployment sector. 4. High oil prices have aggravated the import cost of China, which may lead to cost-driven inflation. 5. Adjust the focus of foreign investment policy according to the trend of foreign direct investment in the world. We will shift the focus to the directional development of some service industries, give priority to the development of service trade of productive services, and focus on the development of export-oriented service industries such as transportation and commercial distribution services related to trade in goods.
There are five outstanding problems in the current economic operation.
-There are still many constraints to further increase grain output and farmers' income. There is limited room for the grain purchase price to continue to rise. The prices of agricultural materials such as chemical fertilizers remain high. It is prone to floods.
-There are still many new projects in fixed assets investment, and the investment structure is still unreasonable. Because the institutional reasons for investment expansion have not been fundamentally eliminated, investment growth in some places is still too fast.
-the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises has declined. The benefits of the industry have been clearly differentiated. The profits of coal, oil exploitation, ferrous and nonferrous metals and other extractive industries increased rapidly, while the profits of building materials, petroleum processing, transportation equipment, chemical fiber and other industries declined more.
-The overall situation of coal, electricity and oil transportation is still tight. Because the growth mode has not changed fundamentally, the utilization rate of resources is low and the waste is serious, the contradiction between energy and resource constraints is still outstanding.
-The situation of production safety is still grim. The phenomenon of illegal production against the wind still exists, with frequent serious accidents and frequent accidents such as road traffic and dangerous chemicals.
Energy conservation is the fundamental way to solve the energy problem in China.
China has a large population and relatively insufficient energy resources, and its per capita possession is far below the world average. The per capita remaining recoverable reserves of coal, oil and natural gas are only 58.6%, 7.69% and 7.05% of the world average respectively. At present, China is in an important stage of accelerating industrialization and urbanization. The consumption intensity of energy resources is high, the consumption scale is expanding, and the contradiction between energy supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent. In the future, with the further expansion of economic scale, energy demand will continue to grow rapidly.
Therefore, energy is a prominent bottleneck restricting China's economic and social development at present and for a long time to come, which is directly related to the smooth realization of the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.
Energy conservation is the essential requirement of Scientific Outlook on Development.
China is rich in coal but short of oil. Among the fossil resources that replace oil, coal can meet the demand matching with the shortage of oil in the near and medium term10 million tons, that is, synthesizing oil by liquefied coal is one of the most practical and feasible ways to realize the basic self-sufficiency of petroleum products in China. Coal can be converted into gasoline and diesel by direct or indirect liquefaction. Direct coal liquefaction has harsh operating conditions and strong dependence on coal types. Indirect liquefaction of coal is to make syngas from coal gasification first, and then convert it into gasoline and diesel oil through catalytic synthesis. The operating conditions of indirect coal liquefaction are mild, which is almost independent of coal type.
The utilization of nuclear fission energy is more and more extensive, and the related technology is improving day by day, which is a feasible and reliable scheme to solve the energy shortage problem in the next century. The construction, operation and maintenance of nuclear fission power stations, the exploitation of nuclear materials and the disposal of nuclear waste will form a huge industrial chain in the next century. The utilization of nuclear fission energy is limited by the limited reserves of nuclear materials on the earth and the difficulties and dangers of human nuclear waste disposal. Using nuclear fusion energy may be the most important way for mankind to finally solve the energy problem. Sunlight is the energy released by nuclear fusion of hydrogen in the sun. The main raw material of nuclear fusion is inexhaustible deuterium contained in the vast sea water, and its product is inert gas helium. Therefore, there is neither shortage of raw materials nor pollution problems such as nuclear waste or nuclear leakage in nuclear fusion.
The international environment is complex and changeable. At present, the international environment is complex and changeable, and peace and development are the mainstream, but the factors that affect peaceful development still exist, such as power politics, hegemonism, terrorism, regional conflicts, nuclear weapons proliferation, natural disasters, transnational crimes, diseases, smuggling and drug trafficking, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen international cooperation.
It is of great significance for China's diplomacy to judge the current international situation and communicate with big countries. At present, the competition of comprehensive national strength among countries is becoming increasingly fierce, and the relationship between countries is cooperation and competition, dependence and containment. The overall stability of the international situation provides opportunities for the development of China, but hegemonism and power politics still exist, and China still faces severe challenges. China should properly handle its relations with big countries, especially with the United States, Russia, the European Union and Japan. The unilateral policy of the United States has been frustrated and it actively seeks international cooperation, but the strategy of the United States to dominate the world has not changed. On the one hand, China should expand cooperation and increase the positive factors in the diplomacy between the two countries; On the other hand, we must adhere to principles and safeguard interests. The continuous eastward expansion of NATO has seriously affected Russia's expansion in Europe, and Russia has turned its attention to Asia. At the same time, Russia is rich in natural resources, which is of great significance to China in terms of energy supply and border issues.
The EU is actively strengthening its strategic cooperation with the United States, strengthening its dialogue with China, and seeking cooperation with China on major power issues. At the same time, we also saw the huge market brought by the rapid economic development in China. ? Because Japan can't face historical issues correctly, it actively expands and establishes its status as a big country, and actively cooperates with the United States to contain China. The opposition between China and Japan is obvious, and it is not easy to handle Sino-Japanese relations well, but the long-term rigidity of Sino-Japanese relations will not be conducive to the development of China. ? At the same time, we should properly handle the relations with neighboring countries and create a more favorable external environment for China's economic development and social progress.
Abstract: In this paper, the extraction and chromatographic analysis of effective chemical components of Solanum