International law refers to the sum of legal rules applicable between sovereign States and other entities with international personality. International law is also called public international law to distinguish it from private international law or conflict of laws, which deals with differences between domestic laws of different countries. International law is also very different from domestic law. Domestic law is the internal law of a country, which regulates the behavior of individuals and other legal entities within its jurisdiction.
I. Sudden changes on the Korean Peninsula
It is reported that in June 65438+1October 65438+June, 2002, the DPRK representatives admitted that they had a nuclear program in their talks with the US special envoy. When this statement came out, the United States reacted strongly. 1 14 10 14, the United States and North Korea announced that they would stop supplying heavy oil to North Korea on the grounds that they violated the framework agreement between the United States and the DPRK. 165438+1October 17 Radio Pyongyang commented that North Korea has been able to cope with the growing nuclear threat from the United States? Powerful military means, including nuclear weapons? . But the next day, the Korean Central News Agency said, North Korea? Believe in the right to possess nuclear weapons? , neither deny having, also don't admit having. Later, North Korea announced that it would restart the Yongbyon nuclear reactor and expel the permanent inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency. On June 65438+ 10/0 this year, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. On February 12, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency held an emergency meeting in Vienna, holding that North Korea violated the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and decided to refer the North Korean nuclear issue to the UN Security Council for discussion.
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is an international treaty signed by 59 countries including Britain, the United States and the Soviet Union in July 1968 in London, Washington and Moscow respectively. Its purpose is to prevent nuclear proliferation, promote nuclear disarmament and promote international cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The treaty came into force in March 1970. Its main contents include: nuclear-armed countries shall not directly or indirectly transfer nuclear weapons or nuclear explosive devices to any non-nuclear countries, and shall not help non-nuclear countries to manufacture nuclear weapons; Non-nuclear States promise not to develop, accept or seek to acquire nuclear weapons; Stop the nuclear arms race and promote nuclear disarmament; Put peaceful nuclear facilities under the international safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency and provide technical cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. 1In April 1995, the States parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons held a review and extension conference at United Nations Headquarters and decided to extend the Treaty indefinitely. It should be said that the Treaty has played an important role in preventing and limiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons and promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy. At present, 188 countries have signed this treaty, and no country except North Korea has withdrawn lightly. This decision of the International Atomic Energy Agency is tantamount to putting the DPRK nuclear issue? Internationalization? This is what the North Korean side is extremely unwilling to see, and the North Korean side has made a strong reaction. 18 February, North Korea further threatened to withdraw from 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement, and the Korean nuclear crisis further escalated.
North Korea warned that if the United States? Aggressive The behavior has not been stopped, and Washington is unwilling to hold direct negotiations with North Korea on this nuclear crisis. Will it be on the Korean peninsula? Burn to ashes? . The United States, on the other hand, said that it had taken a preemptive strike against the United States in response to North Korea's earlier threats? A strong plan? Including the possibility of taking military action to deal with any accident on the Korean peninsula.
It is reported that North Korea began to carry out related activities with the help of the Soviet Union in the 1950s. Peaceful use of nuclear energy? Research in this field. 1977 north Korea signed an agreement with the international atomic energy agency to allow it to supervise two nuclear reactors in north Korea. 1985 North Korea signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. 199 1 year, the DPRK and the ROK signed the Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. However, according to the intelligence of the United States and South Korea, North Korea's nuclear facilities include a 5 MW nuclear reactor, a warehouse for storing 8,000 used fuel rods, and a factory for reprocessing fuel rods. After treatment, it can extract enough plutonium to make 4 ~ 5 nuclear warheads in a few months. US Defense Secretary Rumsfeld said in Germany on February 9 that most intelligence agencies believe that North Korea already has 1 ~ 2 nuclear weapons. Before May and June, North Korea will have nuclear materials to make 6-8 nuclear weapons, and its missiles may hit the United States.
Second, the root causes of the North Korean nuclear crisis
In fact, the North Korean nuclear crisis is a continuation of the dispute between the United States and North Korea on the nuclear issue. Throughout the debate on the DPRK nuclear issue in the United States, it can be divided into the following stages.
The first stage: In the early 1990s, the United States suspected that North Korea had facilities to develop nuclear weapons based on satellite photos, and threatened to inspect North Korea's nuclear facilities. North Korea has repeatedly stated that it has no intention or ability to manufacture nuclear weapons, and accused the United States of deploying nuclear weapons in South Korea to threaten its security. Since North Korea and South Korea signed the Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in 199 1, signed a security agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency and agreed to accept verification, the tension on the Korean Peninsula has been eased.
The third stage: June 5438+last year1October, the North Korean nuclear crisis broke out again, and the contest between the United States and North Korea was completely open and heated. North Korea's announcement of its withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is also a continuation of the last nuclear crisis.
3. Why did North Korea admit its nuclear program at this time?
First, force the United States to change its policy toward the DPRK. Judging from years of experience in dealing with the United States, North Korea has realized that if it does not improve its relations with the United States, other relations will be difficult to break through. Since the Korean War in 1950s, the western countries led by the United States have always adopted a policy of blockade and high-pressure hostility towards North Korea. The international situation of North Korea is very isolated. At the beginning of 200 1, the bush administration came to power and drastically adjusted the us policy toward the DPRK. The dialogue between the DPRK and the United States was interrupted and relations between the two countries cooled sharply. ? 9? 1 1? After the incident, the United States took combating international terrorism and preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction as two major tasks to maintain security. North Korea is worried about becoming the United States? Preemptive strike? , especially? Change the dynasty? The next goal of the policy. North Korea has been on the defensive and has repeatedly threatened that if there is a war, Seoul will become a sea of fire and Japan will not be safe. Seoul, the capital of South Korea, is only 45 kilometers away from the demilitarized zone between the two sides, with a population of 10 million. According to relevant reports, if there is a war, North Korea will attack South Korea with 654.38+100,000 standing troops and 654.38+100,000 cannons in a short time, and more than 37,000 US troops stationed in South Korea will also fall into war.
Secondly, there is time to consider. At present, the United States needs to fully deal with Iraq, ignoring North Korea, and it is unlikely to fight both sides. Therefore, announcing the nuclear program at this time can alleviate the impact on the international community. The fundamental purpose of North Korea's nuclear facilities is to force the United States to change its policy toward North Korea, gain certain economic benefits, and maintain the survival and development of the domestic economic and political system, but it does not really want to confront the United States. Nuclear card? It has always been a tool of North Korea's diplomacy, not an end.
Third, when the South Korean leadership changed, North Korea tried to influence the new South Korean leader's policy toward North Korea. For a long time, the United States is the most critical external force that determines the future of the peninsula, and South Korea has been following the United States. However, since Kim Dae-jung took office in February 1998, he began to adjust his policy toward the DPRK. President Kim Dae-jung stopped speaking in his policy address? North threat? And then what? North-South reunification? , but? We will improve North-South relations on the basis of peace, reconciliation and cooperation? And establish three principles: 1. Do not allow any act of destroying peace by force; 2. Do not seek unilateral absorption and unification; 3. Actively promote reconciliation and cooperation between the North and the South. In June 2000, Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong Il held a historic meeting and issued the Declaration on North-South Reunification. In the second half of the year, the two sides held ministerial talks, and the North-South Red Cross successfully arranged for separated families to meet and repair the crossing? Bitch? A number of economic and trade cooperation projects have been launched on the railway line, and trade has grown rapidly. Is this directed at North Korea by President Kim Dae-jung? Sunshine policy? .
Fourth, there are many security considerations. What does Kim Jong Il pursue? Powerful country? Policy, which includes ideological strength, military strength and economic strength. Is this written by Kim Il Sung? Theme? Thought, that is, political (ideological) autonomy, national defense and economic self-reliance, developed. However, due to natural and man-made disasters, North Korea faces a serious food shortage. For North Korea, which is facing a grain shortage of 6.5438 million tons, self-help is really powerless, and ensuring survival is the top priority. In order to survive, we need international assistance and a safe surrounding environment, and the policy orientation of the United States towards North Korea will have an important impact on this.
4. Will there be war on the Korean Peninsula?
The Korean Peninsula is the legacy of the Cold War in Northeast Asia. This region has a unique geostrategic position and is at the intersection of strategic interests of China, the United States, Russia and Japan. The development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula is related to the great cause of peace and development in Northeast Asia and even the Asia-Pacific region. Now the United States is launching a global war on terrorism. Some people worry that the United States will move eastward against North Korea after cleaning up Iraq. So, will the United States launch a new Korean War?
In the early 1990s, during the first North Korean nuclear crisis, did the United States consider going to North Korea? Surgery? , but soon discovered the disastrous consequences of doing so. First, South Korea will become the first? Buried with him? . Second, North Korea's military capability is very strong, and exchange of fire with it will cause heavy losses. North Korea's military strength should not be underestimated. 1994 may 18, U.S. secretary of defense Perry provided Clinton with a report: in the first 90 days, there will be 50,000 casualties and 490,000 soldiers may die, and the U.S. financial expenditure will exceed 6 100 billion dollars. Moreover, the Korean War is also a big shadow hanging over the hearts of Americans. Americans realize that China and Russia will not allow their neighbors to go to war.
In the short term, the possibility of war is greatly limited. Is the real purpose of North Korea to pass? Nuclear card? Improving relations with the United States is not really about provoking a crisis. The nuclear card is just a diplomatic tool of North Korea. From the perspective of the United States, neither war nor economic sanctions are the best options, and we cannot take a wait-and-see attitude and tolerate North Korea's nuclear test. We can only adopt the policy of consulting with North Korea and bringing it into the international community. This is an inevitable choice for the United States and a solution to the problem actively supported by its allies. This also includes: Is the US war against Iraq smooth, and to what extent is the relationship between North Korea and the United States? Work hard? Going on, the attitude of Korea and Japan, especially the attitude of South Korea, the attitude and position of China and Russia. It should be said that there is still a lot of room for a political solution to the North Korean nuclear crisis. Although the words of both sides are fierce, there is room for both sides; The attitude of the United States is strong and weak, because there is no * * * knowledge within the United States; The international community is making great efforts to mediate: five plus five (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Europe and Australia) or six-party talks (North Korea, South Korea, China, the United States, Japan and Russia) are emerging one after another.
However, it is difficult for the DPRK nuclear issue to surface in the near future. For example, if the United States strikes Iraq, it may strengthen its military defense forces on the Korean peninsula. In North Korea's view, this will be a threat and provocation to its security. Meanwhile, since the DPRK nuclear issue has been submitted to the United Nations by the International Atomic Energy Agency, what is the intention of the United States? Multilateral means? Put pressure on the DPRK or even take it? Economic sanctions? . The New York Times revealed that the Bush administration has prepared a comprehensive plan to strengthen economic sanctions and political pressure on North Korea. If North Korea does not give up its efforts in nuclear weapons research, the United States will force North Korea's economy to collapse. U.S. government officials said that giving any benefits to North Korea would be tantamount to compromising North Korea's threats and making it impossible to fulfill its past commitments. According to the plan, the United States is prepared to put pressure on North Korea's neighbors (mainly South Korea and Japan) to reduce their economic ties with North Korea; The United Nations Security Council imposed economic sanctions on North Korea; In addition, the US military will also intercept North Korea's ships exporting missiles to cut off its important economic sources. But, what about this? Special containment plan? Difficult to implement. Because if the United States imposes severe economic sanctions on North Korea, it may lead to the collapse of the North Korean economy. If the economically collapsed North Korea adopts a desperate foreign policy, it will pose a great threat to South Korea and neighboring Japan. Even if the North Korean government collapses as expected by Bush, and it cannot adopt an adventurous policy, tens of thousands of refugees and hasty reunification are unbearable for South Korea. Therefore, South Korea and Japan will not agree to impose severe economic sanctions on North Korea.
5. What about China?
First of all, we should prevent wars from happening around our country. China's modernization needs a peaceful and stable surrounding environment, and the change of the situation on the Korean Peninsula will be related to China's important strategic opportunity period. It is not in China's long-term interest for the situation on the Korean Peninsula to remain tense and the crisis to escalate. It should be emphasized that China is a major member of the World Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. China opposes nuclear proliferation and supports the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Second, give full play to the role of South Korea and maintain the stability of the situation on the peninsula. South Korea's leading role in the Korean nuclear crisis is positive and should be supported. Roh Moo-hyun, the new president of South Korea, delivered an inaugural speech entitled "The Era of Peace, Prosperity and Leap" at the inauguration ceremony on February 25th, expounding the new government's? Peace and prosperity policy? . The main contents of the four principles of its policy toward the DPRK are: 1. Resolving disputes through dialogue; 2. Trust and reciprocity; 3. Focus on relevant countries and international cooperation; 4. State participation and non-partisan cooperation. At the same time, Roh Moo-hyun stressed that North Korea's nuclear development will never be accepted, but the issue should be resolved through dialogue. Roh Moo-hyun made it clear that South Korea does not agree to impose economic sanctions on North Korea and advocates solving the North Korean nuclear issue through dialogue. Because a collapsed North Korea will have an immeasurable negative impact on neighboring countries. President Roh Moo-hyun's special envoy frequently visited China, Russian Federation, the United States, Japan and other countries to coordinate their positions. At the same time, Han still kept in touch with North Korea and held the 9th ministerial meeting in Seoul. South Korea recognizes that the solution of the peninsula problem ultimately depends on the joint efforts of the North and the South, and the reunion of separated families is an example. Therefore, it firmly advocates solving the North Korean nuclear crisis through dialogue. In this case, if the United States is too high-handed, it may damage South Korea-US relations.
Third, strengthen coordination with the international community and strive to open up space for political settlement. Generally speaking, dealing with the DPRK nuclear issue requires a high degree of wisdom and superb diplomatic skills. China will play a constructive role in its own unique way, such as promoting peace through various channels, actively supporting all efforts that are conducive to easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula, facilitating US-DPRK talks, and supporting North Korea's opening up and construction of special zones. It is imperative that the United States and North Korea start direct negotiations as soon as possible to avoid further expansion of the situation.
1May 1992 to1February 1993, North Korea accepted six unscheduled inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, but the two sides held different opinions on the inspection objects and results. 1In February, 1993, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency imposed compulsory measures on North Korea's nuclear facilities? Special inspection? At the same time, the United States and South Korea resumed suspension at 1992? Cooperation spirit? Joint military exercises. In March of the same year 12, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which 1985 joined, and the situation on the peninsula was once again tense. Under this circumstance, the United States and North Korea held two rounds of talks at the vice foreign minister level, and reached an agreement on assisting North Korea to transform its nuclear facilities, while North Korea announced that it would not withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons for the time being. 1994 In late February, North Korea reached a compromise with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United States: North Korea agreed to inspect its seven nuclear facilities, the United States and South Korea agreed to stop the joint military exercise 1994, and the United States agreed to hold the third high-level talks with North Korea.
The second stage:1994101October 2 1 day. After more than three weeks of negotiations, North Korea and the United States signed the United States-North Korea Nuclear Framework Agreement in Geneva. According to this agreement, North Korea agreed to freeze its existing nuclear program, that is, it agreed not to add nuclear fuel to a 5 MW nuclear reactor, stop building two graphite deceleration reactors, close its nuclear fuel processing plant, and finally dismantle these nuclear facilities. According to the regulations, the United States set up an international consortium (KEDO) to build two light water nuclear power plants for North Korea (about 4.6 billion US dollars), that is, to build a 2000 MW or two 1000 MW light water reactors for North Korea in 2003. Before that, the United States will cooperate with other countries to provide North Korea with 50 tons of heavy oil every year as compensation.