Model essay on world economy: the influence of China's development on world economy
abstract:
Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly and become a world economic power. This chapter points out the stability and influence of China's development on the world economy by analyzing the position of China's economic development in the world and the contribution of China's development to all aspects of the world economy. Looking forward to the future, it is predicted that in the next 10 to 20 years, China will enter the stage of medium and high-speed development, but its share in the world will continue to increase and its influence on the world economy will be strengthened.
Keywords:: analysis of the impact of China's development on the world economy
With the rapid development of economic globalization, China's economy has maintained a long-term and stable economic momentum, and its position in the world economy has continued to rise. The outbreak of the financial crisis has slowed down the economic development of the major developed countries in the world and weakened their influence in the global economy, which has brought new opportunities to the economic rise of developing countries. In recent years, China's economy has achieved new breakthroughs, and its GDP has jumped to the second place in the world, which has become an important force to promote world economic development. China's influence on the world economy is increasingly obvious. With the fierce international competition in the new era, in order to further improve the level of China's economic development and make more and greater contributions to the world economy, we must accurately grasp the contribution of China's development in the world economy and constantly adjust its international strategic positioning.
First, the position of China's economic development in the world.
First of all, China has become one of the global economic powers. According to the data, the International Monetary Fund published the world GDP ranking in April 20 14, 20 14. According to the data, the global GDP in 20 14 was 77.3 trillion US dollars, an increase of 3.3 trillion US dollars over the previous year, and the GDP of the United States in April of 20 14 was 17. China's GDP is 10.380 trillion US dollars, ranking second; Second,? MadeinChina？ Affect the world. On the road to becoming a global economic power, the rise of manufacturing industry is particularly prominent. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 20 13 years, China's industrial added value reached 210.07 trillion yuan, accounting for 20.8% of the world, and the net export of manufacturing industry ranked first in the world. China became the number one in the world? Make a big country? ; Third, China's total trade volume ranks among the top in the world. As early as 1980s, China has become the world's first exporter and second importer. In 20 13, China's total import and export trade surpassed the United States for the first time, ranking first. Fourth, China is a big investor. In 20 15, Zhong Shan, the international trade negotiator and deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, revealed in Beijing that in 20 14, China's foreign direct investment reached 1029 billion US dollars, surpassing 1000 billion US dollars for the first time, with a year-on-year increase of14. The scale of China's foreign investment is huge, which has contributed to the global economic development? China's role? ; Fifth, China has become one of the financial powers. The influence of domestic coins in the world is an important part of strengthening the financial strength of the country. In recent years, China has steadily promoted the internationalization of RMB, and the overseas RMB reserve of 20 15 will continue to increase.
Second, the contribution of China's development to world economic development.
1. China's economy has become the main driving force for world economic growth.
China's economic growth plays an important role in the world economic growth. According to the data of People's Republic of China (PRC) National Bureau of Statistics, from 2005 to 20 14, China's GDP has been rising continuously, showing a steady growth trend. From 20 1 1 to 20 14, China has contributed more than a quarter to the world GDP growth. In the past 30 years, the proportion of China's economic growth in global economic growth has been increasing, from 3.8% in 1980 ~ 1990 to 20.9% in 2000 ~ 20 10, and reached a quarter in the last four years. From the data analysis, we can see three points: first, after the financial crisis broke out in 2008, China's economic growth promoted global economic growth and played an important role in global economic recovery; Second, although the economic growth rate of China has declined in recent years, the total economic output is still rising; Third, the contribution rate of China's economic growth to global economic growth has been rising in the past 30 years, gradually surpassing other developed countries and becoming the first in the world. In addition, China's development in manufacturing, import and export trade, and financial industry has also shown a steady growth trend. As a big manufacturing country, China's manufacturing growth has also become the main force of global manufacturing development.
2. The development of China has promoted the change of global economic structure.
Since World War II, the global economy has emerged? North and South? Pattern, the economic development of developed countries accounts for a relatively large proportion of world economic development. By the 1970s, the proportion of developed and developing countries in global economic development was basically the same. At this time, the GDP of developed countries is three to four times that of developing countries. At the end of the 20th century, the proportion of developed countries in the global economy rose to 85%, while the development of developing countries lagged behind. However, since the 20th century, the rapid economic development of developing countries, especially China, has prompted changes in the global economic structure, and the proportion of developing countries in the world has risen rapidly. It is estimated that by the end of 20 15, the GDP of developing countries will account for 50% of the world. On the other hand, the rapid development of China's economy in recent years has also accelerated the shift of the global economic center of gravity to East Asia. China's economic growth has always been an important part of global economic growth. Especially after China's accession to the World Trade Organization, world capital and industry have obviously shifted to China, which is also an important reason for the continuous development of China's manufacturing industry and rapid economic growth. Generally speaking, on the one hand, the transfer of global economic capital and industry has promoted China's economic growth, on the other hand, China's economic growth has in turn promoted the shift of the global economic center of gravity, and China's economy has become more and more influential in global economic development.
3. The development of China has promoted global scientific and technological innovation.
Science and technology play an important role in promoting global economic growth. The development of China has promoted global technological innovation and improved its efficiency. In the past 30 years, China has been relying on the imitation and catch-up of technology to improve its technical efficiency, but its total factor productivity growth rate far exceeds that of other frontier developed countries. Developed countries have always been the leaders of scientific and technological innovation, and their innovative products emerge one after another and are widely used in developing countries. In particular, the expansion of China's foreign trade has provided a broad market for developed countries to disseminate scientific and technological achievements and increased their market size and income. With the in-depth development of China's reform and opening-up policy, China has attracted a large number of foreign multinational companies. China's good infrastructure, abundant human resources and perfect industrial system provide a good platform for technological innovation of developed countries and multinational enterprises, accelerate the industrialization and marketization of innovative technologies, and improve their economic benefits and development efficiency. In recent years, with the development of China's economy, its investment in scientific and technological innovation is also increasing. It is reported that in 20 14, China's research and experimental development (R&; D) Expenditure1331200 million yuan, an increase of 12.4% over the previous year, accounting for 2.09% of GDP. In addition to increasing capital investment, China has now become a major international patent application country. In 20 14, enterprises in China filed 25,539 patent applications under the framework of Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) of the World Intellectual Property Organization, an increase of 18.7% compared with that in 20 13. Enterprises in China have become the largest patent applicants of the World Intellectual Property Organization.
The development of China plays an important role in stabilizing the global economy.
China's cheap labor is conducive to stabilizing the global price level. Since the reform and opening up, China has been in an advantageous position in the world economic competition with its low labor cost. Although the labor cost has increased slightly in recent years, compared with the past and other developed countries, China's labor force is still at a low level, and other factors have kept China's exports at a low price for a long time. Compared with the increase of export prices in other countries, China's long-term low increase is bound to play an important role in controlling global inflation. At the same time, China's economic growth can also reduce the fluctuation of the global economy. The financial crisis that appeared in the last century hit the developed countries' economies hard, but China's economy still maintained its own growth, which played an important role in promoting global economic amplitude, restraining global economic fluctuations and stabilizing global economic growth. With the continuous development of China's economy, its proportion in the global economy is increasing, and this stabilizing effect will become more and more obvious. Some studies have investigated and analyzed the fluctuation degree of economic growth rate in different countries. The research shows that among the ten countries that have increased the scale of global economic development, China has the smallest fluctuation in economic growth, which shows that China's economy is less affected by the global economy and plays an important role in stabilizing the global economy.
Third, the future development of China and the world economy.
1. The proportion of China's development in the world will continue to increase, and its impact on the world economy will be strengthened.
It is predicted that the investment space of China in infrastructure, energy and raw materials industries will decrease in the next 10 to 20 years in China. The advantages of catching up with some technological innovations will be weakened; The aging population and the shortage of surplus labor will lead to an increase in labor costs. In the next ten to twenty years, China's economic growth rate is likely to slow down, China's high-speed economic growth will slow down, and China's economic growth will enter a period of medium and high-speed development. At the same time, the structural contradictions accumulated by developed countries for a long time are still an important factor restricting the economic recovery of developed countries. Developed countries have not made substantial progress on this issue so far, and the global economy has entered a relatively slow development period. Although the growth rate of China will slow down, it will still be higher than the global growth rate. In the future, China's development will account for a huge proportion in the global economy, and its influence on the world economy will be strengthened, and it may surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy in the future.
2. The future direction of China.
Sustainable development is the core interest of our country and the need to promote the development of the world economy. The overall goal of China's strategic positioning is to comprehensively enhance China's international competitiveness, create a mutually beneficial and win-win international environment, promote domestic economic development, and provide positive energy for global economic growth for a long time. Therefore, China needs to make appropriate adjustments to its future positioning: First, China's future positioning will shift from passive opening to active opening to realize economic transformation and upgrading; Secondly, China will change from a big trading country to a powerful trading country, becoming the world's core consumer market and the main supply base of goods and technology; Third, China should change from a capital importing country to a capital exporting country and become an important fund provider in the world. Finally, China should give full play to its advantages as a big country and play a leading role in the process of integration.
Four. conclusion
The Third Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China made an overall plan for building a new open economic system. Considering the impact of China's development on the world economy and the current situation, China's future development strategy must accurately grasp the fundamental direction of China's open economic system construction, rationally allocate China's strategic resources in the global market, improve the comprehensive advantages and overall benefits of utilizing foreign capital, build a mutually beneficial and win-win national cooperation system, and give full play to China's leading role as a big country in the world.
References:
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World economy model II: the impact of RMB internationalization on the world economy
introduce
Nowadays, with the rapid development of China's social economy, China is playing a more and more crucial role in international trade. The trend of RMB value has remained stable, which has promoted the gradual improvement of RMB international status and the continuous enhancement of its international competitiveness. With the expansion of the international circulation scale of RMB, the internationalization of RMB has attracted great attention of policy makers in China and countries all over the world. Therefore, it is of great theoretical significance to study the impact of RMB internationalization on the world economy.
1. The significance of RMB internationalization
The internationalization of RMB refers to the process that RMB circulates internationally without international restrictions and is further transformed into internationally recognized pricing, settlement and reserve currency. At present, the international circulation of RMB has been carried out in many countries, but this does not fully explain that RMB has been internationalized. With the gradual expansion of the international circulation of RMB, it is believed that it will inevitably promote the internationalization of RMB and make RMB a real world currency. The significance of RMB internationalization can be summarized as the following three aspects: first, RMB needs certain liquidity to enjoy a foundation in international circulation; Two. The main financial products denominated in RMB have been transformed into investment tools of many international financial institutions. As the core content of RMB internationalization, the scale of RMB-denominated financial market should be gradually expanded to promote RMB internationalization. Three. In international trade, the amount of transactions settled in RMB should reach a certain share. The above three standards are mainly used to measure the degree of internationalization of RMB, and the latter two aspects are more important.
2. Current situation of RMB internationalization in China
2. 1 comprehensive economic strength analysis
Over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, the average annual growth rate of China's national economy has exceeded the international average for many years. In the first half of 20 13, the global economy gradually picked up, the downside risks of emerging economies increased, and some countries implemented quantitative easing monetary policy and withdrew from expectations, resulting in further instability in the international financial market. The pressure of capital outflow and currency depreciation is constantly impacting emerging economies. But overall, China's economic development is relatively stable, and all important economic indicators are still in the expected normal range [1].
2.2 The financial environment promotes this process.
After more than 30 years of gradual transformation of the national financial system, China's financial industry has gained extremely rich experience in national financial reform, monetary and foreign exchange policy management and financial risk control. China's financial environment has been systematically and comprehensively improved, including strengthening financial supervision, speeding up the reform of the financial system, promoting the sound development of the domestic financial market and speeding up the construction of an international financial center. Nevertheless, compared with the developed countries in western market economy, there are still obvious deficiencies in China's financial economy and financial market, which will inevitably bring inconvenience to the financing function of China's financial industry and the rapid development of the stock market, and it also means that RMB internationalization should not be rushed.
2.3? Exchange reform? slow down
On July 2, 2005, KLOC-0/,the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism system was reformed, and China fully implemented a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. 20 1 1 Luo Lisha, vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase China fund and securities service department, pointed out that the RMB exchange rate is no longer just the US dollar, but a variety of related currencies are determined according to its own external economic development, and targeted weights are added to form a currency basket. Combined with the financial development inside and outside the market, the RMB exchange rate is regulated and managed, and the RMB exchange rate is basically stable at a scientific and balanced level [2].
3. The impact of RMB internationalization on the world economy
Currency competition is the main form of economic competition among countries at present. If the substitution of RMB against other currencies continues to improve, it will help to strengthen the corresponding seigniorage benefits, change the distribution pattern of reserve currencies in various countries, and have a far-reaching impact on the world economy.
3. 1 is conducive to alleviating the defects of the current international monetary system.
The international monetary system is the product of the Bretton Woods system. On the one hand, it has corresponding congenital defects, on the other hand, it is obviously difficult to present the new characteristics of world economic development, resulting in emerging economies not having the corresponding right to speak in the international monetary system. Due to the economic slowdown in the United States, Japan's economic development has been stagnant for a long time, the euro zone has triggered a sovereign debt crisis, the international financial market has fluctuated, and the reform of the international monetary system is imminent. At present, the international monetary system urgently needs scientific and effective innovation. However, it is extremely difficult for some countries with vested interests to actively participate in the reform of the international monetary system. In view of this, under the influence of RMB internationalization, the reform of the international monetary system has taken a big step forward.
3.2 It is conducive to multipolarization of the world economy and diversification of international currencies.
In the process of the reform of the international monetary system at this stage, it is obviously impossible to restrict the US dollar substantially and return to the gold standard or the gold exchange standard. A more reasonable means is to use the external constraints of international currency diversification and international currency competition to balance the US dollar. In the process of RMB internationalization, it will inevitably lead to the emergence of a series of international currencies, which can effectively promote the development of the world economy, especially in developing countries. In the process of RMB internationalization, China can conduct different kinds of financial and monetary exchanges with neighboring countries in Asia, and explore the establishment of a regional exchange rate stability system and regional currency, thus laying a good foundation for the formation of the Asian dollar in the future [3]. As far as the economic development in Asia and the world is concerned, it can not only provide effective convenience for China's trade and investment, but also promote China's economic exchanges with neighboring countries or foreign countries on a larger scale; On the premise of RMB appreciation or stability, it is cost-effective for other countries to reserve RMB, which promotes the preservation and appreciation of assets and provides another option for currency reserves in the context of the continuous depreciation of the US dollar.
3.3 Conducive to international settlement
The internationalization of RMB will make RMB have the characteristics of sovereignty, credit, stability, availability and convenience. RMB holders can buy any goods made in China that are competitive in the market through RMB. Now many countries have bought RMB as their foreign exchange reserves, which shows that the nationalization of RMB has achieved remarkable results. In short, the impact of RMB internationalization on the world economy is just like that of consumers shopping in department stores. If there is only one commodity for consumers to choose from, they will naturally spend more money. If there are multiple choices, market forces will create opportunities for them to reduce costs. The internationalization of RMB will provide another choice for global currency consumers, including developed economies such as the United States and Japan. The internationalization of RMB brings opportunities for the development of world economy.
4. RMB internationalization development strategy
4. 1 Building a comprehensive risk management system
The internationalization of RMB should strengthen the understanding of the importance of building a comprehensive risk management system, and take a series of strategies to improve and avoid comprehensive risks in combination with the actual situation of RMB internationalization, including: effectively using exchange rate hedging means to settle foreign exchange at the first time; Conduct various businesses in different currencies; Enhance cooperation with financial institutions, and effectively avoid risks in an all-round way with the help of relevant products and services provided by financial institutions, such as foreign exchange option products, foreign exchange futures products, information consulting and financial advisory services [4]. It is necessary to fully understand the functional attributes of the comprehensive risk management system, choose the corresponding means to avoid RMB internationalization in combination with its own risk tolerance and expected rate of return, pay attention to choosing the right trading opportunity, and provide sufficient guarantee for maintaining and increasing value through foreign exchange investment.
4.2 Construction of offshore financial market
The construction of offshore RMB financial markets in London, Hong Kong, Singapore and Shanghai has different advantages and characteristics. In view of this, in the development planning, we should also give full play to their respective advantages and complement each other to ensure the effective realization of the offshore financial market group of RMB. We should further rely on the geographical and volume advantages of London as an international financial center, enrich the types of RMB products, expand the scale of offshore RMB financial business, and expand offshore RMB business to Europe and the world with London as the center; Highlight the role of Hong Kong as the largest RMB cross-border settlement market and strengthen economic and trade cooperation between Hong Kong and the Mainland and Southeast Asia from the perspective of serving the real economy; Fully promote the formation of the pricing power of RMB in Singapore's offshore financial market, show the radiation advantage of Singapore's offshore financial market, and enhance the use and trading of RMB in ASEAN; Standardize the offshore RMB financial market mechanism in Shanghai, expand the market scale, introduce more financial products, and improve the RMB pricing ability based on domestic economic development, thus transforming into a RMB product pricing center [5].
4.3 orderly opening of capital projects
The deepening of RMB internationalization has put forward higher requirements for capital projects and gradually liberalized them. They complement each other and promote each other. In view of this, it is necessary to realize the orderly development of capital projects: 1. Promote the gradual opening of capital projects, ensure the stability of the economic and financial order during the opening period, effectively adapt to China's national conditions and the requirements of the international comprehensive environment, and at the same time prevent the increase of regulatory costs and the decrease of efficiency due to excessive caution, clarify the appropriate opening order and content, and realize the effective cross-border flow of RMB. Two. The order and content of capital account opening, standardize the construction of financial market, give priority to opening the issuance market and domestic transactions of non-residents, then open the circulation market and overseas transactions, and adopt steady and flexible adjustment measures to promote the completion of capital account management objectives centered on price control [6].
5. Concluding remarks
In a word, RMB internationalization is a complex systematic project, which needs the cooperation of many factors. In order to achieve the development effect of RMB internationalization, relevant personnel must constantly learn and sum up experience, clearly understand the meaning of RMB internationalization, and comprehensively analyze the current situation of RMB internationalization in China. Build a comprehensive risk management system? 、? Building an offshore financial market? 、? Is the capital account open and orderly? Wait a minute. Actively promote the orderly and healthy development of China's foreign trade, promote the in-depth development of China's RMB internationalization, and promote China's social and economic sustainable development and mutually beneficial and harmonious economic relations with international trade.
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