WTO and the Prospect of World Trade Liberalization (for reference)

Abstract: GATT has played a great role in promoting world trade liberalization. Nowadays, the WTO, which replaced GATT for more than a year, has made some achievements in maintaining the orderly and legal operation of global trade, but it also faces various tests, such as non-tariff barriers, hegemony of big countries, the relationship between regional trade and global trade, and the relationship between protecting national industries and free trade. We should be soberly aware of the inevitability of free trade and the limitations of WTO capabilities. And we can look at China's entry into WTO objectively.

[Keywords:] International Trade Organization, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, trade liberalization

I progress in GATT and trade liberalization

GATT, which was born in 1947, is a binding multilateral trade contract signed between countries (regions) in the world, and it is a set of multilateral trade principles that systematically manage the trade behavior between countries (regions). Although it is only a trade agreement and has long been institutionalized, it has never been legally recognized as a real international organization. Its main function is to organize multilateral trade negotiations and handle and arbitrate trade disputes between parties. According to its purpose: in international trade, through mutual reduction of tariffs and elimination of non-tariff barriers and discriminatory treatment in international trade, the basic principles of 10, including non-discriminatory trade principles, have been formed, so as to improve living standards, ensure full employment, make full use of world resources and develop the production and exchange of commodities. Principle of tariff protection; The principle of trade stability; The principle of fair competition, the principle of anti-import quantity restriction; The principles of openness and transparency; Principle of immunity and exception; Principles of regional trade; Preferential principle for developing countries; Principles of clothing and textiles, etc. He also presided over eight rounds of global multilateral trade negotiations, including the Uruguay Round, which decided to establish the WTO. As a result, the average tariff rate of world industrial trade dropped from 40% in 1947 to 4% in developed countries and 12% in developing countries. Its contracting parties have developed from 23 countries at the beginning of its establishment to 128 countries and regions before the establishment of WTO; The trade volume of its member countries rose from 25% of the total world trade at first to 90% of the total world trade. Although GATT is only a temporary agreement, its parties still implement tariff protection, especially non-tariff protection, and there are also "grey areas", but in the past half century, as the only multilateral agreement to manage international trade, it has taken a big step forward in world trade liberalization. 195 Global trade increased by 8% on the basis of 9.5% in194, which is inseparable from the promotion of GATT.

Second, the WTO promotes trade liberalization during the transition period.

The concluded Uruguay Round negotiations have produced many important positive results, one of which is to formalize the quasi-international trade organization GATT, and decided to establish the World Trade Organization on New Year's Day 1995.

Compared with GATT, WTO covers not only trade in industrial and agricultural products, but also trade in services and intellectual property rights, and its trade dispute settlement mechanism is more effective.

Since the establishment of the WTO one year ago, it has experienced many difficulties and twists and turns, but basically completed the system construction; At the same time, new members have been added, and more than 20 countries and regions, including China, are applying to join the WTO. The expansion of the WTO shows that it is more attractive to all countries. At present, developing countries and countries with economies in transition in Eastern Europe account for two-thirds of the WTO, which helps developing countries play a greater role in the multilateral trading system. New multilateral trade negotiations have been organized, and we are drawing up our own development blueprint to meet the challenges brought about by the development of the world economy.

As a newly established WTO with permanent legal effect, it faced three major challenges just after its establishment: consolidating the results of the Uruguay Round; Complete the negotiations involved in this round but not yet completed; Study the new topic of international trade. In the face of the Uruguay Round Agreement, which has been implemented for 10 years and is generally applicable to all parties, the difficulty of its implementation is not difficult to imagine. To this end, the WTO has established a set of management institutions on the original basis of GATT, one of which is the trade system review mechanism. The WTO regularly reviews the trade policies of its members to ensure their transparency and consistency with multilateral agreements. A new dispute settlement mechanism has also been established to strengthen the multilateral trading system. Compared with the decentralized dispute settlement mechanism of GATT in the past, this mechanism has higher efficiency and stronger ability to enforce arbitration results. It is stipulated that all disputes must be settled within 18 months at the longest. If the arbitration structure established by this mechanism is not implemented, all parties concerned will be punished. In the year of 1995, more than 20 trade disputes were accepted, more than that accepted by GATT in any year, and six of them were directed against big trading countries by developing countries. Among these disputes, the most striking is the automobile trade dispute between the United States and Japan. Although the case was finally resolved through negotiations between the two sides, it is undeniable that the deterrence of the WTO dispute settlement mechanism promoted the two sides to reach an agreement. In the past, during the GATT period, big trading countries often flouted the ruling made by the organization with impunity, and the interests of weak countries were often not protected. The WTO has made new progress on this issue. For example,1in April, 1995, the United States lifted the restrictions on textiles in Hong Kong after the relevant departments in Hong Kong submitted the case of US restrictions on textiles in Hong Kong to the WTO for adjudication; In July of the same year, Costa Rica and Honduras sued the WTO for restrictive measures taken by the United States on their underwear imports, which led to the cancellation of restrictive measures by the United States again.

1995, WTO also organized four unfinished service trade negotiations in Uruguay Round: financial services, labor mobility, basic telecommunications and maritime negotiations. In the negotiation of financial services, the United States insisted on high asking price, and the negotiations almost broke down. However, at the initiative of the European Union, an interim agreement was finally reached without the participation of the United States, which can be said to be unprecedented. As a result, more than 30 countries promised to improve the openness of their financial markets. In addition, the WTO has set up a committee to study environmental issues, and plans to submit all new topics to 1996, 12, the first ministerial meeting of the WTO held in Singapore in February, so as to prepare for organizing new trade negotiations in the future.

In short, the transition from GATT to WTO was smooth, which laid the foundation for the development of the multilateral trading system. In this year, the efforts made by the WTO to keep global trade on the track of order and legal system are valuable. However, on a series of issues, especially in maintaining the credibility and authority of the WTO, this new organization is still facing a severe test.

Third, the severe test of WTO in the process of promoting trade liberalization.

Theoretically, the purpose of GATT accords with the general principles of international trade theory; Judging from the regulations, it provides an institutionalized guarantee for the operation of WTO; From a practical point of view, although WTO has replaced GATT, its achievements are far from its purpose. Moreover, with the development of world economic integration, some new topics are also placed in front of the WTO, such as trade and trade environment, trade and investment policies, and trade and competition policies of enterprises in various countries.

First of all, among the achievements made by GATT in promoting trade liberalization, tariff reduction is the most prominent, which is one of the main reasons for the increase of world trade volume by 10 times; But at the same time, on the other hand, especially on non-tariff barriers, there is nothing we can do. Countries need protection objectively in economic development, but because of too many tariff concessions, it is not convenient to achieve the purpose of protection, so they turn to a large number of non-tariff barriers. At present, there are more than 2,700 kinds of tariff barriers in the world, which have become the biggest obstacle to trade liberalization. The WTO will still face this difficult problem.

Secondly, the WTO has not eliminated all kinds of drawbacks in the international trade order. One of the most prominent problems is that the situation of big countries still exists. For example, due to the obstruction of a few big trading countries, China, whose trade volume ranks 1 1 in the world, has not yet become a member of the WTO; Due to the intransigence of Europe and the United States, it took nine months to decide on the director-general of WTO; In addition, the United States often takes unilateral trade retaliatory measures, posing a major threat to other countries; Serious unemployment, trade imbalance and other factors lead to the rise of trade protectionism in developed countries. Under the pretext of labor standards and environmental protection, they are pushing new protectionism to developing countries and setting up various obstacles in technology transfer to developing countries. In the past, because major western countries deviated from the purpose of GATT, developing countries had a heavy burden and the gap between the rich and the poor widened, which is still the case today. Not only that, but also trade disputes between developed countries are constantly erupting. These trends have a destructive impact on the WTO. Therefore, the most severe test facing the WTO is whether the major industrialized trading powers are willing to respect the rules of the WTO when they lack competitiveness or their short-term economic interests are threatened, rather than relying on their own economic strength to destroy it.

Third, the "integration" and collectivization of the world economy. In the development of world trade, the proportion of commodity exchange among members of regional trade groups is increasing. By the end of 1994, there were 108 regional trade regulations registered with the GATT secretariat. Regional economic integration has dual effects of trade creation and trade transfer. While promoting trade and economic growth, regional trade groups are inevitably exclusive, which may bring friction among trade groups and even shake the foundation of the multilateral trading system. In the regional trade arrangement of Article 24 of GATT, contracting countries are allowed to establish free trade areas and customs unions without giving equal treatment to non-member countries according to the most-favored-nation treatment clause, which is contrary to the non-discrimination principle of GATT. Although the conditions and purposes of establishing a free trade area and a customs union are stipulated, and the procedures are standardized and restricted, some parties have the opportunity to endanger the trade of other parties, especially developing countries, due to the discriminatory nature of this provision and its legal defects and loopholes (Feng Yushu, page 8 1). The existence and development of evenly matched regional economic groups means the enhancement of mutual competition, confrontation and bargaining power, which weakens the effect of multilateral trade negotiations. Coordinating the relationship between regional trade and global trade has become an unavoidable issue after the establishment of the World Trade Organization. The WTO insists that regional trade and global trade should be complementary rather than competitive, and both should be carried out within the framework of the WTO. To this end, the WTO has set up 69 special working groups to coordinate the relationship between the two. At the initiative of Canada, the WTO decided to set up a committee of regional trade groups in early 1996 to coordinate the relationship between these groups and the multilateral trading system. But its function has yet to be tested in practice.

Finally, for the sake of economic development, developing countries actually need to protect their national industries to some extent. Even some moderately developed countries and regions have deviated from the principle of free trade to varying degrees for their own interests. For example, on New Year's Day 1996, the WTO Agreement on Government Procurement came into effect. As the largest buyer of all countries, the government's opening to the outside world means that all government procurement contracts exceeding150,000 SDR must be invited for bidding. However, only the United States, Japan, Canada, Israel, South Korea, Norway, Switzerland and other countries 15, less than the Tokyo Round Agreement on Government Procurement, Sweden, Hong Kong and Singapore. Experts call this agreement "plurilateral agreement" to distinguish it from other "multilateral agreements". The Agreement on Government Procurement of WTO has become a "rich club" and a dead end of free trade. The reason is that, on the one hand, developing countries are still far from the opening up of government procurement, and even if some countries have limited opening up, they will give priority to protecting domestic industries. For example, Indonesian legislation requires "government procurement" to buy foreign products at the most favorable price, and the larger the contract amount, the other party must buy domestic non-oil products as a condition; On the other hand, signatory countries are open to each other on the basis of equality. Because of their considerable national strength, no one can suffer losses, but their greater appetite is to compete for government procurement contracts in third countries. For example, in the summer of 1994, American Raytheon Company and French Thomson Electronics Company competed in Brazil for the right to start an Amazon project with1400 million US dollars, and finally they defeated their competitors with the help of the Central Intelligence Agency (wuyue, 1996).

It should be said that the ability of WTO to settle disputes has not been really tested so far. At present, the WTO is dealing with various disputes, and it will be early this year at the earliest. The biggest dispute it accepted-the US-Japan automobile trade dispute-was finally resolved through bilateral negotiations. On major issues, the United States, the world's largest trading country, often abandons multilateral channels and adopts unilateral or bilateral methods to solve problems; Great powers are still trying to manipulate the WTO; ; New trade protectionism poses a threat to trade liberalization. On the issue of China's "re-entry into GATT", the WTO has made some efforts. Unfortunately, due to the exorbitant prices of a few big trading countries, China is still excluded. Obviously, without China's participation, the WTO would not be a complete organization.

In short, with the development of the world economy, international trade relations are more complicated, the scope of trade is wider, and the competition between countries is increasingly fierce, which are doomed to face more severe challenges in the process of promoting world trade liberalization. World trade is gradually moving towards globalization. If we go backwards, it will undoubtedly bring the world into depression.

Four. The inevitability of free trade and the limitation of WTO ability

As far as free trade is concerned, it is inevitable because the development of market economy in the world has become an irreversible historical trend since 1990; Promote the WTO, a powerful trade liberalization organization; In addition, the process of global economic integration provides favorable conditions for the development of free trade. Moreover, more importantly, since the Second World War, the liberalization of international trade is the result of the internationalization of production and capital, the development of international division of labor in depth and breadth, the rapid recovery and development of the world economy, and the emergence of a large number of multinational companies, which reflects the inherent inevitability of the development of the world economy and productive forces.

However, the development of trade liberalization is unbalanced: the trade liberalization between developed countries exceeds that between them and developing countries; Trade liberalization within regional economic groups exceeds that with countries outside the group; As far as commodities are concerned, the degree of trade liberalization of manufactured goods exceeds that of agricultural products; Trade liberalization of machinery and equipment exceeds that of industrial consumer goods, especially "sensitive" labor-intensive products. As a result, selective trade is formed, which is combined with trade protection to some extent. The unbalanced development of trade liberalization also has certain exclusivity. As far as the characteristics of new trade protectionism are concerned, it is mainly developed on the basis of trade liberalization and coexists with developed countries; The focus of countries' "rewarding excellence and restricting entry" has shifted from restricting imports to encouraging exports; Non-tariff barriers are dominant and trade protection measures are diversified; The number of protected commodities is increasing; From trade protection system to more systematic trade management system, government intervention and trade management are emphasized. For example, Clinton mobilized a large number of American government agencies and formulated the first "national export strategy" for American enterprises. In the past three years, the performance of American enterprises has proved his success (wuyue, 1996). For another example, European governments have invested 25 billion marks to develop Airbus, and a large amount of subsidies are given every year to maintain its operation. By 1993, its turnover finally beat Boeing and became the first in the world.

From the root of the growth of new trade protectionism in developed countries, it is mainly due to the contradiction between the adjustment of world industrial structure and interest groups; Depression and unstable growth of the world economy; The unbalanced development of international trade and balance of payments. Here, due to the existence of many countries with different levels of development, the adjustment of industrial structure will continue, and the cyclical development of the world economy will continue. In addition, the unbalanced development of the international economy will not only exist between developed countries, but also between developing countries and between developing countries and developed countries, which will provide the soil for the existence of trade protection.

Moreover, it should be acknowledged that the result of the Uruguay Round is still unbalanced, and its trade liberalization measures are gradually implemented, and the impact on countries will gradually occur and manifest. Developed countries, especially Europe, America and Japan, will be the main beneficiaries, because most of the world trade is conducted between them. Some newly industrialized countries will benefit from the elimination of non-tariff barriers to textiles and clothing imports in developing countries within 10 years, while some developing countries with relatively backward economic development will face more severe tests. The key problem is that the principle of trade liberalization advocated by WTO cannot solve the gap between countries' economic and technological levels. In this way, all kinds of exceptions under the premise of its principles may make different types of countries use relevant provisions to build new trade barriers on the basis of recognizing its principles.

It is undeniable that developed countries such as the United States will still dominate the WTO. They control the WTO by virtue of their own economic strength. From the Clinton administration's advocacy that the government should actively participate in foreign trade affairs, changing the "free trade" policy into a "fair trade" policy, and starting to implement a strategic trade policy, to the Kirchner administration's series of trade actions (including obstructing China's re-entry into GATT) and attitudes, it also reminds us that once the relevant provisions of the WTO are unfavorable to it, it is difficult to guarantee that it will not be trampled. After all, in the international economy, national interests are still paramount. As an economic "United Nations", its role will probably not be much stronger than that of the United Nations. Although it can restrain power to a certain extent, it cannot guarantee that it will not be used by power.

In view of this, China should make good preparations for joining the WTO. The WTO is only an international organization, which is essentially the result of the balance and distribution of interests among member States. It can't be built into a supranational organization, so it can't balance internal or external shocks. In addition, it must be flexible to deal with the realistic international political changes, otherwise it cannot survive. Although WTO can promote trade liberalization, trade protection is by no means temporary. In the process of world trade liberalization, it will coexist with free trade. The WTO does not guarantee that member countries will automatically enjoy the benefits of the WTO, but only provides an opportunity to participate in competition. Joining the WTO is not only to obtain stable MFN treatment and other benefits stipulated by the WTO, but more importantly, by joining the WTO, the rules and norms prevailing in international trade will be applied to China's foreign economic and trade, and higher standards of international competition pressure and motivation will be introduced to promote the comprehensive reform of foreign trade and its supporting economic system, and an open market mechanism and a set of corresponding norms and macro-control means will be established. So that domestic production and foreign trade can be handled in accordance with economic laws and international practices, thus promoting economic development, enhancing economic strength and international competitiveness, and gradually moving towards free trade.

Obviously, even after China's entry into the WTO, China's national conditions do not allow it to achieve free trade in one step, so it can only adopt a transitional trade policy. In other words, in order to properly grasp the process of trade, we should also properly protect infant industries. This policy should not only conform to the national conditions, make international competition within the range that China can bear at present, but also be conducive to the development of China's productive forces, give full play to the role of domestic market mechanism in improving production efficiency and resource allocation efficiency, and keep organic contact with international market mechanism. Gradually move closer to the international norms required by WTO. During this period, we should unite with most developing countries and wage unremitting struggle against the powers of major trading countries, so as to safeguard the credibility and rights of the WTO and ensure that the interests of developing countries are not or less infringed.

In short, despite the promotion of WTO, world economic development and trade liberalization will be the mainstream, but trade protection will not die out, and may even go hand in hand. The process of world trade liberalization will be slow and tortuous, and it may repeat itself.

refer to

Wuyue: "Government Procurement: A Minefield of Free Trade", International Business Daily, 1997, 1.5.

Yang Guangzhi: I've tried the WTO at the age of one. Economic Daily199565438+February 15.

Ban Wei: "One year of WTO stumbling" China Business Times199565438+February 13.

Ren Lie: Theoretical Research on Trade Protection, Doctoral Dissertation of Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 1995.

Feng Yushu: GATT and China under the International Trading System, Foreign Economic Relations and Trade Press, 1992.

If you think it is impossible, you can post it, then mark my screen name on the link or send it to me, and I will help you think about it.