The basic condition for realizing the relative balance of bilateral trade between China and the United States is to promote the free trade of goods, services and investment. Without bilateral free trade, it is impossible to achieve a sustained relative balance of bilateral trade.

Text/Chen Dongqi, Vice President of Macroeconomic Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission

Under the condition of globalization, the imbalance of world trade has become a normal state, and all countries can do is to control the degree of imbalance and achieve relative balance. At present, the trade imbalance between China and the United States is relatively high, which is manifested in the trade surplus of goods and the trade deficit of services and capital investment in China. In the rapid transformation of global industrial chain and division of labor system, although the outdated statistical system of international trade in goods has amplified the imbalance of Sino-US trade in goods, there is still a serious imbalance. The basic condition for realizing the relative balance of bilateral trade between China and the United States is to promote the free trade of goods, services and investment. Without bilateral free trade, it is impossible to achieve a sustained relative balance of bilateral trade.

First of all, look at the current situation of Sino-US trade development from the perspective of globalization.

Trade between countries in the world has never been absolutely balanced. Even if economic globalization has a certain equilibrium effect on the distribution of trade flows among countries, it is impossible to form an absolute equilibrium pattern that all countries are satisfied with at the same time. The imbalance of international trade is a normal state. 1985 by 2005, the import and export trade of goods in major countries in the world increased by 5.8 times, and the annual deficit showed a gradual increase trend, with the total amount increasing from 75.65 billion US dollars to 360 billion US dollars. This shows that globalization has not stopped the unbalanced trend of international trade.

Globalization not only makes the flow of goods trade increase rapidly, but also makes the service trade and capital investment show an unprecedented growth momentum. With the change of global demand structure, the proportion of agriculture and industry that rely on land, minerals and energy resources has gradually decreased, while the proportion that rely on knowledge, skills and other labor services has gradually increased. With the adjustment of global industrial chain and industrial division of labor, the scale of international capital flow is expanding, and the capital flow has changed from one-way (excess capital from developed countries flows into developing countries) to two-way (capital from developed countries flows into developing countries and capital from developing countries flows into developed countries). In this situation, measuring the trade balance between countries can not follow the traditional trade thinking, and can not only look at the changes in the trade flow of goods, but also look at the changes in the trade flow of services and capital.

Since China's entry into WTO, the overall trade pattern between China and the United States has shown the characteristics of "interactive deficit" or "interactive surplus". In other words, neither side is a pure surplus nor a pure deficit, but there are both surpluses and deficits. In terms of trade in goods, China has a surplus and the United States has a deficit; In terms of services and capital investment and trade, the United States has a surplus, while China has a deficit.

Last year, the US trade deficit with China was $232.5 billion. In fact, about 60% of this figure is the products processed and exported by American companies or other third-country (regional) enterprises in China, which is the carrier for American capital to make profits in China. If this part is removed, the actual deficit of American trade in goods with China is only more than $654.38+000 billion. If services and capital investment and trade are taken into account, the "overall trade deficit" of the United States with China in recent years is actually significantly lower than the figures publicized by the American media.

Since the end of the transition period after China's entry into WTO, China has not only expanded the market opening in the fields of industry and agriculture, greatly lowered the threshold for foreign investors to invest in these fields, but also accelerated the development of finance, insurance, scientific and technological information and public utilities (-136.89, -3+). 10089.1000000000103 It is predicted that the trade surplus of American services and capital investment in China will increase substantially this year, and the "overall trade deficit" of the United States with China will further expand.

Second, the rapid growth of China's trade: Who is the contributor? Who is the beneficiary?

In recent 30 years, the growth of China's trade in goods has experienced a cyclical change from deficit to surplus. From 1978 to11988, there was a trade deficit of $40.85 billion. At this stage, import substitution is very fast, and high-priced manufacturing technology and equipment are exchanged at very low prices. The production capacity brought by import substitution is improved, the technological progress is accelerated, the import and export trade structure is gradually improved, the trade system reform increases the vitality of foreign trade, and the factor productivity is improved. Especially during the Asian financial crisis, it was forced to choose the export-oriented strategy, which promoted the import and export trade from deficit to surplus.

Foreign trade is the engine of China's sustained and rapid economic growth. In the past five years, China's import and export trade of goods increased by 28% annually, and its share in world trade increased from 3.6% to 7.7%. The rapid growth of China's foreign trade has provided the world market with cheap and high-quality goods, which has enabled major trading partners such as Europe, America and Japan to achieve achievements similar to "high growth and low inflation" in the 1960s. American companies that moved their factories to China made huge profits by using cheap land, labor, scarce resources and huge demand market. China, on the other hand, earned only a little processing fee and labor fee and a little hard money at the cost of precious resources and environment in the global industrial chain.

In the process of participating in the global industrial division and integrating into the world market system, China not only achieved rapid growth in export trade, but also maintained a sustained and strong growth momentum in import trade. From 200 1 to 2006, China's import volume of goods increased from 243.55 billion US dollars to 79 16 1 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.25 times in five years, with an average annual increase of 27%; The proportion of China's goods imports in the world's total goods imports increased from 3.35% to 6.8 1%. On this basis, the import growth rate in the first four months of this year is still close to 20%. It can be seen that China has not only created a cheap and high-quality supply market for the world, but also created a huge demand market for the world, creating many employment opportunities for the United States and other trading partners. With the rapid growth of foreign trade, China is both a contributor and a beneficiary, while China's trading partners are the bigger beneficiaries.

However, it should be seen objectively that at the peak of labor supply, China, a huge import market, needs a strong export market to support it. If external forces excessively restrict and suppress its export market, it may break the inertia of China's rapid import growth. Therefore, it will harm the interests of China and China's trading partners.

Third, the imbalance of trade in goods between China and the United States is caused by many reasons.

From 2000 to 2005, the proportion of China's goods trade surplus in the global trade deficit rose from 8.83% to 28.33%, while the proportion of German and Japanese goods trade surplus rose from 56.52% to 76.75% in the same period. In fact, Asian economies except Europe and China are the main sources of the trade deficit between the United States and the world.

Ms barshefsky, former US trade representative, and Professor Roach, Morgan Stanley's global chief economist, explained the US trade deficit more realistically. Ms. barshefsky pointed out that the deficit in the United States "is caused by many reasons, not just the exchange rate", and "Americans are too eager to spend" and have no habit of saving. Professor Roach also said: "The real problem of American trade lies in the imbalance between investment and savings", and "the surge in imports is more the product of the special period of excessive domestic consumption in which the United States is located". They agree that Americans' excessive consumption and insufficient savings have caused excessive import and trade deficits.

The reasons for the US trade deficit with China are both external and internal factors, and internal factors play a leading role relative to external factors. This internal cause, in addition to "excessive consumption leads to excessive imports", is also related to "the US market is not open enough and exports are insufficient".

First, in the face of changes in the global industrial structure and global market structure, the United States has not actively adjusted its outdated trade strategy and policies, but pursued "export protectionism" and "market restrictionism", restricted the export of energy resources, high-end technologies and scientific and technological products, and even continued to take some discriminatory measures against China to prohibit sales. As a direct result, countries with more flexible policies, such as Germany, can get more exports to China, and part of American exports to China are obtained by Germany and other countries. This kind of "national seller competition" will undoubtedly have a "crowding out effect" on the United States and reduce the export opportunities of the United States.

Second, in the face of the wave of globalization, the United States is "afraid of competing with poor countries" and "raises access standards and then increases the cost of foreign enterprises, thus weakening the competitiveness of foreign enterprises". For example, in the fields of energy, aviation, agriculture and advanced manufacturing, the United States has more and more restrictions on foreign investment, especially China. As a result, exports decreased, and the relative proportion of the United States in the total global exports decreased.

Third, the Fed has implemented an expansionary monetary policy for a long time, creating excess dollar liquidity by means of low interest rates, thus artificially causing the appreciation of American assets and the "wealth effect". In the case of low loan interest rate, rational Americans are of course willing to spend a lot of money with credit cards; In the case of low financing interest rate of fiscal bonds, the Ministry of Finance will issue bonds without restraint to meet the expenditure needs of the Pentagon. Under the background of hollowing out low-end industries in the United States, the result of this will inevitably be an infinite expansion of the demand for consumer goods and public investment goods in the United States, a large part of which will be met by imports.

Fourth, the United States purchased and hoarded a large number of scarce materials such as oil with excessive US dollar bills, which aggravated the imbalance of domestic and international demand. In recent years, there has been an important cycle in the United States and the global market: the increase of American oil reserves-the rise of global oil prices-the United States hoards more oil ... The increasing oil reserves and rising oil prices will inevitably consume more and more dollars, which will significantly increase the import volume of the United States.

Fifth, the unrestrained foreign war and global expansion have caused the public expenditure of the US government to expand continuously. In fiscal year 2004, the federal fiscal deficit reached an all-time high of $41300 million, and it was still as high as $248.2 billion last year. The expansion of government expenditure will inevitably lead to the expansion of demand for public goods. Under the condition that the domestic supply of general public goods increases to a certain extent, only imports can fill the gap between supply and demand, thus expanding the foreign trade deficit.

When analyzing the causes of trade imbalance between China and the United States, both China and the United States should adopt an objective and rational attitude, pay more attention to the views of pragmatic people such as Ms. barshefsky and Professor Roach, and find proper solutions. Only in this way can we achieve a win-win situation and continue to promote the healthy and rapid growth of Sino-US trade.

4. How do the United States and China solve the Sino-US trade problem?

If the United States simply puts the cause of bilateral trade imbalance on the other side, ignores its own internal factors, does not pay attention to controlling its excessive consumption and excessive import desire, and does not strive to open its market to the outside world and increase exports, it will not only be unfair to the other side, but also make the trade imbalance problem more serious. Therefore, the best way to solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States is that both sides are committed to eliminating the factors that cause these problems and promoting free trade in the bilateral markets.

The United States should control excessive imports and realize free exports. The first measures to control excessive imports are: implementing tight monetary policy to reduce the global supply and liquidity of US dollars; Increase the national savings rate, gradually reverse the imbalance between investment and savings, and limit excessive private consumption under high debt; To tighten the federal government expenditure, especially by changing the global expansion strategy to tighten the US military expenditure in the world, Congress should stop the practice of constantly relaxing the standard of issuing bonds, strictly limit the issuance of government bonds, and reduce the excessive public consumption of the government under high debt. As long as the family deficit and the government deficit are controlled, so that both families and the government can achieve a basic balance of payments and constantly improve the relationship between consumption and savings, it can provide a basic guarantee for solving the trade deficit problem.

In order to expand exports, the United States needs to adjust its trade policies and systems that are inconsistent with globalization and WTO rules, amend outdated domestic trade laws, and expand the opening of industrial and technological markets. Under the background that low-end manufacturing and general processing industries are constantly shifting outward, the advantageous industries in the United States are shrinking at the tip of the "industrial pagoda", such as high-end information technology industry, modern military industry, aerospace and railway transportation, new energy industry, biopharmaceutical industry, environmental protection and modern service industries such as finance and insurance. If the United States fully opens these industries and markets and realizes the liberalization of export trade, it is expected to make a direct contribution to solving American trade problems.

The appreciation of RMB against the US dollar can alleviate the trade problems between China and the US theoretically, but it has little practical effect. From July 2, 2005 to May 25, 2005, the RMB appreciated by more than 8% against the US dollar, but during this period, China's surplus with the US or the US deficit with China did not decrease, which shows that there is no obvious relative relationship between RMB appreciation and surplus reduction. As Roach said, exchange rate adjustment cannot solve the trade imbalance between China, the United States and the world. "Exchange rate is by no means a panacea to solve the current global imbalances."

China should take measures from both inside and outside. Internally, it is mainly to gradually adjust the policies and systems of national wealth distribution, especially to increase the proportion of urban and rural residents' income, wages and farmers' income in GDP, improve the relationship between consumption and investment and savings, gradually change the reality that wage growth is slower than profit growth, government tax revenue growth and GDP growth, reduce taxes for low-and middle-income people, gradually reduce the national savings rate, and promote the sustained and rapid growth of consumer demand in the whole society. Externally, it is mainly to appropriately expand imports, reasonably control exports, and promote the gradual improvement of the RMB exchange rate to achieve a reasonable balance. The focus of expanding imports is to increase government procurement and increase the import of resources and technical products that are conducive to alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic energy resources, improving the economic structure and promoting independent innovation. The key point of reasonable export control is to further adjust the export-oriented policy, continue to substantially reduce the export tax rebate rate for products with high energy consumption, high pollution and resource processing, strengthen the management of export qualifications, and strictly limit the momentum of export expansion. Since the beginning of this year, in order to achieve the goal of "reducing the surplus", the China Municipal Government has sent purchasing delegations to the United States several times to directly purchase goods and technical equipment and increase immediate imports; Implement the policy of encouraging technology introduction to 8 1 industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and coal mining, and expand long-term imports; Reduce the export tax rebate rate or increase the tariff rate for industries with high energy consumption, high pollution and overcapacity, and limit excessive export. Judging from the latest changes in coal import and export trade, the effects of these measures are gradually emerging.

With the continuous improvement of people's consumption power in China, the scale of high-end commodity market in China will expand rapidly in the future, and services such as finance, insurance and information will enter the "fast lane". The expansion of energy-saving and environmental protection industries requires the introduction of advanced technologies, and the United States has obvious advantages in these areas. You can catch the "express train" in China and increase your exports to China. However, to achieve this goal, the United States should further open its export market to China, cancel all discriminatory clauses in its export trade with China, especially the restrictions on exporting high-tech products to China.

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and America, economic and trade relations have developed rapidly. At present, the United States is China's second largest trading partner and China's largest export market, while China is the fourth largest trading partner of the United States. According to American statistics, China's exports to the United States in 2003 reached 654.38+063.25 billion US dollars. According to Chinese statistics, this figure also reached 92.47 billion US dollars, compared with 88.5438 billion US dollars in the first nine months of 2004. According to the statistics of the US Department of Commerce, the US trade deficit with China in 2003 was 1, 24 1 billion US dollars, accounting for about 25% of the total US foreign trade deficit. According to Chinese statistics, the US trade deficit with China also accounts for about 20% of the total US foreign trade deficit, which has remained basically unchanged in recent years.

The trade imbalance between China and the United States will persist for a long time. The main reasons are as follows.

First, the difference in savings rates between the two countries. Generally speaking, if a country's savings exceed its investment, it is characterized by a positive net export or a trade surplus; If a country's savings are less than its investment, it means that its net exports are negative or its trade deficit is negative. China's high savings rate leads to a high trade surplus; The reason why the United States has a large trade deficit is mainly due to its low savings rate and the soaring domestic investment gap caused by huge military expenditure, government tax reduction plan and low interest rate policy.

Second, the asymmetry of consumer demand between the two countries caused by the difference in income level. Generally speaking, people's consumption choices are closely related to their income levels. With the gradual improvement of income level, people's consumption structure will gradually upgrade and transform. When the income level is low, people's expenditure is mostly concentrated on necessities such as food, and the Engel coefficient is very high at this time; When people's income level is high, in addition to buying necessities, they can also buy high-end products to improve their welfare level. Obviously, no matter what people's income level is, necessities of life must be purchased. China has a strong cost advantage in producing labor-intensive products, most of which are necessities of life, which inevitably leads to the United States importing a large number of labor-intensive products produced in China; High-tech products produced in America belong to high-end products. Due to the low income level of China residents, the demand for high-end products produced in the United States is very low. This asymmetry in the demand for trade products between the two countries caused by the huge difference in income levels is a long-term factor that causes the trade imbalance between the two countries.

Third, the restrictions on American technology exports to China. The economies of China and the United States are complementary. The comparative advantage of the United States lies in high-tech, knowledge-intensive equipment and products, while the comparative advantage of China lies in labor-intensive products. The control of American technology export to China tends to be stricter, and the approval rate of American companies' technology export applications to China declines, which inhibits the full play of American comparative advantages and further increases the imbalance of Sino-US trade.

Fourth, the reorganization of the pattern of international division of labor. China has a good labor quality and low wages. Developed economies and newly industrialized economies moved their factories to China for production and still sold them to the United States through the original trade channels, which increased China's trade surplus with the United States. In fact, China's trade surplus with the United States is the trade surplus of the whole East Asian region with the United States, that is, the industrial transfer of East Asian countries to China has also transferred the trade surplus of East Asian countries with the United States to China. Therefore, this trade gap between China and the United States caused by the economic restructuring in East Asia cannot disappear in a short time.

5. Differences in rules of origin. Due to the differences in rules of origin, many products are labeled as "Made in China", which increases the surplus figure of China. Roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley, a well-known economic research institution, said that from 1994 to mid-2003, China's exports increased from 12 10 billion to 365.4 billion dollars, of which foreign-invested companies or joint ventures contributed 65% of the export growth. With the development of economic globalization and integration, the economic boundaries of countries are becoming more and more blurred, especially the global strategy of multinational corporations, which has completely deviated from the traditional model of dividing international trade by national boundaries. The previous statistical methods can not objectively reflect the trade relations between countries, so it is impossible to judge a country's competitiveness simply by the so-called trade surplus or deficit.

Sixth, American export statistics are inaccurate. According to the American Business Weekly, due to inaccurate export statistics, about 10% of export commodities are not declared to the Ministry of Commerce every year, and the Ministry of Commerce has done a good job in import audit, resulting in the excessive foreign trade deficit calculated by the government. Take Microsoft as an example, it has sold nearly 1000 billion dollars of software products to the whole world, but it does not produce CDs in the United States according to the traditional export method of goods and commodities, and sells them globally after labeling, but produces them at the place of sale, sends the sales income back to China or sells products on the Internet, and collects payment electronically. In the traditional balance of payments, these sales revenues are not included in export revenues.

It can be seen that the trade imbalance between China and the United States is caused by the globalization of the world economy and the trade strategy of the United States in the economic development stage of the two countries. From the perspective of rational economics, the trade imbalance between China and the United States is not a big problem. But why is the trade imbalance between China and the United States really the main reason for the long-term political and economic friction between the two sides?

1. According to Keynes's foreign trade multiplier theory, the greater a country's trade surplus, the greater its role in increasing national income and solving unemployment and crisis problems; The bigger the trade deficit is, it is often accompanied by economic recession and rising unemployment rate. Based on this basic theory, American policymakers are very concerned about the bilateral trade balance, and China, as the largest source of trade deficit in the United States, is bound to bear the brunt.

Second, from the reality of American economic development, according to the statistics of the Office of the United States Trade Representative, 20% of American economic growth from 1990 to 2000 was attributed to the increase in exports. It is generally believed that the US trade deficit of $010 billion is equivalent to the loss of 2,000 jobs. According to official figures released by the United States, the trade deficit with China in 2003 reached US$ 654.38+034.8 billion, equivalent to the loss of 274,000 jobs. Therefore, it is quite natural for the United States to blame China's trade deficit for domestic problems such as unemployment.

3. America's political and economic ability and negotiation ability are the strongest in the world. It is an important means for the United States to achieve "economic hegemony" and "political hegemony" by causing trade friction between China and the United States under the pretext of trade deficit.

In fact, through the huge trade deficit, the United States not only successfully implemented the globalization strategy and gained global benefits, but also closely tied the fluctuations of the global economy with the United States, making it increasingly difficult for the world economy to get rid of its dependence on the American economy. The "economic hegemony" and "political hegemony" of the United States can promote each other, and it is difficult for other countries to have effective countermeasures in the short term. ......