The effective supply of coal is insufficient. The state intensified macro-control, cleaned up coal mine projects under construction and controlled new projects, which restrained the excessive growth of coal investment to a certain extent and effectively restrained the speed of capacity expansion. The unbalanced distribution of railway transportation capacity determines the long-term imbalance between regional coal supply and demand.
The coal price shows a long-term upward trend. For a long time to come, the overall supply and demand of coal will be balanced, and the supply in some areas, some types of coal and individual periods will be tight. It is expected that coal prices will remain high and increase slightly. The rationalization of the composition mechanism of coal price cost leads to the increase of mining production cost of coal enterprises; The price reform of national resource products, energy conservation and environmental protection policies have promoted the rise of coal prices, and institutional factors such as the rise of pricing power of coal enterprises have also promoted the long-term rise of coal prices.
The import and export demand of coal has changed from a net exporter to a net importer. Since July 2004, China's coal export must obtain government quotas, and only enterprises with the right to operate coal export can apply for and obtain coal export quotas. At present, only four enterprises in China have the right to export coal. Due to the adjustment of import and export tariffs, the appreciation of RMB and the rapid growth of coal demand in China, it is expected that the import of thermal coal in China will further increase. The main importing countries and regions of thermal coal in the Asia-Pacific market are Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan Province Province. In recent years, the coal supply capacity in the Asia-Pacific region has maintained a slight growth momentum. However, due to the rapid growth of coal demand in this region, the supply of thermal coal in the Asia-Pacific market has generally increased, but it is still tense, especially high calorific value coal.
According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China recently, in June 2007, the country exported 5.25 million tons of coal, up 18.8% year-on-year. The reporter noted that before 10 this year, only in July and 10, the monthly coal export volume increased year-on-year, and the export volume in July increased by 26.2%. According to customs data, from June 5438+0 to June 5438+0, China exported 43.26 million tons of coal, down 17.6% compared with the same period last year. As of September this year, China has achieved monthly net coal export for three consecutive months. From June 5438 to September this year, China imported 600,000 tons of coal.
According to the forecast of China Coal Industry Association, by 20 10, China's pure coal import will reach1.5-230 million tons, much higher than the previous forecast of 70 million tons. China's coal imports are increasing gradually. 1990 China imported only 2 million tons of coal, compared with 2120,000 tons in 2000, but China imported 35 million tons of coal in 2006 and is expected to reach 50 million tons in 2007, mainly to Guangdong and Fujian provinces.