On the factors affecting the popularization of ecological agriculture

Ecological agriculture is the development direction of modern agriculture, and China is a big agricultural country. How to better promote ecological agriculture has important practical significance. Taking a village in Jiaozuo City, Henan Province as the empirical research object, through investigation and application of multiple linear regression model, it is concluded that infrastructure expenditure and human capital of eco-agriculture are the key factors affecting the development of eco-agriculture in this village, and on this basis, corresponding suggestions are put forward.

Keywords: Suggestions on Multiple Linear Regression Model of Eco-agriculture

I. Introduction

Eco-agriculture is a modern agriculture based on the principles of ecology and economics, which can obtain high economic, ecological and social benefits by using the achievements of modern science and technology and the effective experience of modern management science and traditional agriculture.

As early as the late 1970s, scholars represented by Academician Ma Shijun pointed out that agricultural research and practice should be guided by the concepts and viewpoints of ecological balance and ecosystem. 198 1 year, Mr. Ma Shijun put forward this idea at the symposium on agricultural ecological engineering. Holism, coordination, circulation, regeneration? Principles of ecological engineering construction. 1982 professor ye delivered a speech at Yinchuan agricultural eco-economic seminar? Ecological agriculture? China's Green Revolution in Agriculture? A paper, formally put forward the China? Ecological agriculture? This semester. China is a big agricultural country, and the process of agricultural modernization determines the direction of China's modernization process.

China's agriculture has the characteristics of decentralized development, single agricultural structure and extensive management, which requires the construction of a high-yield, high-quality, low-consumption and sustainable modern ecological agriculture development model according to the concept and laws of ecological agriculture. After 30 years of development, China's eco-agriculture construction has grown from scratch, from small-scale experiments to large-scale implementation, and eco-households, eco-villages, eco-townships and eco-counties in various regions of the country have flourished. At present, the technical system of ecological agriculture has been initially formed, which has effectively promoted the development of traditional agriculture to modern agriculture in China. But at the same time, we should also see many problems, and many scholars have done a lot of related research.

Chen (20 10), right? Financial Support for Ecological Agriculture? The conclusion of the discussion is that it is necessary to increase government support and encourage private capital to actively participate; Innovative financial products; Establish risk compensation mechanism and credit guarantee system, and increase funds; Is zhangyan (20 1 1) there? Technology extension of ecological agriculture? It is considered that a scientific and technological innovation system and a technology extension system should be established to meet the needs of ecological agriculture development. "Research on Ecological Agriculture System" puts forward: speed up the construction of management system, scientific and technological innovation and popularization system and legal system; Wang Jian (2007) proposed to build an agricultural ecological base in the industrialization research of China; Actively promote the agricultural product certification system; Develop ecological agriculture industrial chain, etc. Wang Liqun (20 1 1) drew the conclusion that farmers should be trained in academic education, professional skills, network informationization, policies and regulations. In the field of regionalization research, Liu Yafei (2006) analyzed the present situation and mode of eco-agriculture development in Jiangxi Province, pointed out its restrictive factors, and put forward countermeasures and measures; Summary of Wang Jinshuang and others on the development of ecological agriculture in Panjin City.

However, these studies generally have the following problems: 1, the analysis is too general, mostly theoretical description, and the data analysis and measurement are less; 2. The lack of continuity in research leads to the lack of timeliness of many countermeasures, which are still in several general directions; 3. Ecological agriculture has strong regionality. At present, the research on eco-agriculture is mostly at the national level, and the research on regions is not deep enough, so it is not feasible.

In this paper, the above problems are discussed in depth. Firstly, Ma Shang Village, Baijianfang Township, Shanyang District, Jiaozuo City, Henan Province, was selected for investigation, and the factors affecting the promotion of eco-agriculture in this area were quantified, and the regression analysis was carried out, and the key factors affecting the development of eco-agriculture were obtained, and the corresponding suggestions were given.

The structure of this paper: The first part is the establishment of the model, including index selection and data description, initial model hypothesis, model verification, model modification and model analysis; In the second part, the main conclusions are given, and further discussion is made on this basis.

Second, the establishment of the model

(A) Index selection and data description

1990 selected in this paper? The data in 2006 came from China Statistical Yearbook 2008 and Henan Statistical Yearbook 2008, and the actual collected data were counted, calculated and analyzed. Now explain the relevant variables.

1, actual output value of ecological agriculture Yi

It is known that the proportion of agricultural output value in the I-year in this region to the agricultural output value in Henan is Wi 1, and the proportion of ecological agriculture such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in the corresponding year in this region is Wi2, and the agricultural output value in Henan is ni. Taking the rural consumer price index of 1990 as 100, the consumer price index ci of the corresponding years can be calculated, and the actual output value of eco-agriculture in the first year can be calculated by the following formula.

yi = niwi 1wi 2/ci(I = 1990， 199 1...2006)

2. Expenditure on capital construction of ecological agriculture X 1i

Agricultural capital construction expenditure, that is, all kinds of fixed assets investment directly used by government finance to develop agriculture and serve agricultural production, is the material carrier and basic element of developing agriculture. X 1i is given in the following way:

X 1i = XWi3Wi4/ci

Where X is the capital sequence of Henan's investment in agricultural capital construction, Wi3 is the proportion of investment in this area, and Wi4 is the proportion of investment in ecological agriculture. Ci ditto.

3, the level of human capital 2i

Because the data of human capital stock is not easy to obtain, we give it in the form of proportion. First of all, according to the number of people engaged in agriculture and their education in this area over the years, the human capital stock is calculated by the method of education years. According to the education classification in the local population data, the education level is classified, and the average years of education at all levels are taken as the weight base value and adjusted appropriately to get the stock H:

H 1 =？ Black rice H2 =? dried shrimps

Among them, HEi is the number of people engaged in ecological agriculture at the I-th education level, HAi is the total number of people engaged in agriculture at the I-th education level, and mi is the number of years of education at the I-th education level. Illiteracy and semi-illiteracy m 1 is defined as 0.5 years, primary school m2 is 6 years, junior high school m3 is 9 years, senior high school m4 is 12 years, and university and above m5 is 16 years, X2i =.

4, ecological agriculture science and technology investment X3i

Agricultural science and technology capital investment refers to the expenditure for the introduction, research and popularization of agricultural science and technology. Similarly, X3 is the sequence of scientific and technological investment in Henan Province, Wi5 is the proportion of scientific and technological investment in this region, Wi6 is the proportion of ecological agriculture, and X3W5WI6/c.

5. Eco-agricultural environmental investment X4i

Environmental investment refers to the expenditure on improving the environment, protecting the environment and resisting natural disasters. These data can be obtained directly from the survey or by subtracting the consumer index.

6, other ecological agriculture expenditure X5i

Other eco-agricultural expenditures include all the expenditures related to eco-agriculture except the above, mainly including the investment in improving the detection standard of ecological output, the expenditure on the docking service between output and market, and the corresponding government management system. This project is mainly calculated by residual value method, and adjusted accordingly with the price.

(B) the initial model assumptions

Y = c0+c1x1+c2x2+c3x3+c4x4+c5x5+e The initial model is estimated by OLS, and the results are as follows:

The models R2=0.9742 and 2=0.9625 have high determinable coefficients, and the F test is 83. 147, which is obviously significant, but the coefficients of X 1 and X3 are negative. Contrary to expectations, the T test of the coefficients is not significant, indicating that there may be serious multiple * * linearity.

(3) Model test:

Calculate the correlation coefficient of each explanatory variable and get the following matrix.

From the correlation coefficient matrix, we can see that the correlation coefficient between explanatory variables is high, and there is indeed serious multilinear.

(4) model modification

1. Use the following methods to optimize the model and select the best model (all regression models are listed in the table, among which the univariate regression model only takes the model of y about X2, and the value of t is in brackets):

According to the following criteria:

I coefficient is in line with economic significance and cannot be negative.

All explanatory variables are significant.

The determinable coefficient of III is high, which is greater than 0.93 in this model.

The screened models 2, 3, 7 and 9 match.

2. Perform autocorrelation test (DW test) on modules 2, 3, 7 and 9.

DW3 = 0.809 & ltDL= 1.0 15

DW9 = 0.89 & lt deciliter

The above two models have obvious positive correlation, so they are excluded.

The autocorrelation of the other 2 and 7 models cannot be judged, and DW is between DU and DL.

3,2,7 heteroscedasticity test (White test)

The results are as follows:

Model 2

R2 = 0.25643 1，P = 0.597552

Model 7

R2 = 0.40225 1，P = 0.27 19 13

It can be seen that there is no heteroscedasticity in the two models, but the smaller the p value, the better. Comprehensive analysis shows that model 2 is better.

4. The best model

y =-2.54455 1+23.38843 x 1+39.75376 x 2

T value (8.322649) (8.802230)

R2 = 0.97，2 = 0.967

5. Model analysis:

Simulation degree analysis: from the simulation results, the simulation results of the final model are satisfactory and the fitting degree is high, which shows that the final model has good prediction effect.

Analysis of economic significance:

According to the forecast results, the output value of eco-agriculture will increase by 23.39 units per unit of capital expenditure and 39.75 units per unit of human capital level. Obviously, capital construction and human capital have an important impact on output value.

Third, extension.

From the process of statistical data, there are few specific direct data about ecological agriculture, which also increases the difficulty of data acquisition. Fortunately, the investigation area is small and the population is relatively small. The author is very familiar with this area, so he has obtained first-hand information. From the Y value, the output value of eco-agriculture is increasing year by year, and the ratio is rising constantly, which shows that eco-agriculture is gradually being popularized, but from the relative value, there is still a lot of room for development. According to the simulated regression equation in this area, the investment in fixed assets is not strong enough and the scale is not large enough. The investment in agricultural infrastructure construction is still insufficient and the proportion is not high. The main driving force to promote the rapid development of agricultural economy needs to be further reflected. At the same time, farmers' education level is not high, which seriously affects the promotion of eco-agriculture. The scarcity of learning channels and training opportunities makes the promotion more difficult.

Although the other three factors are not reflected in the model equation, they do not represent secondary importance. As can be seen from the figure below

The investment in ecological science and technology is becoming more and more influential, but the investment in this area is relatively small every year. Fortunately, the annual growth rate is rising, and it can be predicted that it will become the main force to promote the development of ecological agriculture in the future 10 to 20 years. Because of its strong regionality and timeliness, ecological agriculture is the fundamental factor in this region, but not necessarily in other regions. And from the current situation, the above two points are the key, but with the further promotion and development of eco-agriculture, other factors are likely to become the key, so people who pay more attention to the development of eco-agriculture need to make empirical analysis and give targeted and feasible suggestions. This is also the purpose and significance of this paper. I hope to stimulate more quantitative research on ecological agriculture and innovate better econometric models.

In the promotion of ecological agriculture, it is very important to establish a good financing environment. From the main point of view, the government, as the main body of capital construction expenditure, increases the investment in infrastructure that farmers really need and establishes a series of supervision mechanisms to ensure the efficiency of the use of funds. However, the government's annual financial expenditure is limited, and the areas of investment are relatively unlimited. We can't rely on the government to solve everything; Therefore, enterprises can enter the field of eco-agriculture with the help of the powerful force of market economy, which requires the inclination of policies, the real formation of agricultural industrialization, and the creation of famous brands of agricultural products. At the same time, it is necessary to establish corresponding monitoring standards for eco-products and regularly publish testing rankings through the media; On the other hand, as the main body of eco-agriculture, farmers can expand financing channels through preferential loans for eco-agriculture and the insurance system of their own funds; Finally, it is necessary to establish and improve financing laws and regulations to reduce financing loopholes.

For the problem of rural human capital, on the one hand, farmers can be re-educated, but it is obvious that the traditional education model has not adapted to the current rural situation, and the literacy rate, time, energy and interest all lead to the high opportunity cost of farmers' traditional learning; Therefore, it is necessary to innovate farmers' education mode and carry out professional skills training, but the training methods need to be considered. According to the past historical experience and the author's life experience, the typical demonstration effect will play a great role in rural areas; On the other hand, it can increase the existing human capital in rural areas, guide college students to return to their hometowns for development through government policies, and make contributions to rural development; We can also skillfully guide college students correctly and reasonably through the focus of university education.

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