At present, China's economic development mainly depends on investment, and a large part of it is driven by foreign capital. Foreign capital has created a considerable "China GDP" in China, but its benefits have been transferred to foreign countries through commodity export. The higher the GDP of China, the more benefits it will bring to foreign countries. It is true that in the process of international economic integration, in the cutting of huge DGP cakes, as long as the cakes are made bigger, China will always get some benefits. I just want to remind you that the so-called "China GDP" is not something owned by China itself, nor is it something that benefits everyone in China.
When the cake of economic aggregate is getting bigger and bigger, but the cake distribution is seriously unfair, the bigger the GDP, the stronger the sense of deprivation, and the more social crises are buried. In fact, the polarization between the rich and the poor in China is increasing. From 65438 to 0994, China's Gini coefficient exceeded the internationally recognized warning line by 0.4, and it was as high as 0.48 in 2007. (Note: According to the latest data released by the United Nations in 2007, Japan's Gini coefficient is only 0.25)
Another data can also prove it. In 2006, the World Bank reported that 4% of the population in China owned 70% of the wealth, while 5% of the population in the United States owned 60%. Because of the serious polarization, per capita GDP has become a "false prosperity". If the vast majority of people in China are below the average, such people only cover up the poverty of most people. We don't need total empty happiness, and we don't need empty happiness per capita, but real happiness.
Obviously, as some people say, China is not strong, but fat. Hypertrophy not only has little motivation, but also hides many pathogenic factors. China's economic analysis shows that China's economy is low in gold content, weak in scientific and technological innovation and high in economic growth, which is obtained by selling cheap labor and paying heavy environmental costs. This hidden reason has caused China's diseases to break out one after another, that is, we have paid too high a price for this "hypertrophy", environmental pollution, strange diseases, product quality and safety are frequent, the country is rich but not rich, and the vulnerable groups are struggling to survive. Although the China government has realized this problem and is committed to change, no change can be made overnight.
Therefore, it is blind to simply raise a glass to celebrate "China's GDP surpassed that of Japan this year". If we just indulge in such digital games, then the government can play digital games, inject water into satellites and turn China into an inflatable doll. You know, we have played with satellites, and the yield per mu100000 Jin is endless.
In fact, it is not the first time that China's GDP has surpassed that of Japan this year. In the Qing Dynasty, China's GDP was one of the best in the world, much higher than Japan's, but it was defeated in the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895. The reason is very complicated, and I think it is very important that although China has a high GDP, China is still a poor country, making money from tea porcelain, which is very low-end. Although Japan's GDP is not as good as China's, it is rich in gold, and it is a rich country that makes money by artillery and ships.
It is said that 1949, China's GDP is also higher than that of Japanese. After all, Japan was defeated after World War II, but its technology, advanced system and talents are still there, so it rose rapidly in just 20 years after the war.
From the point of view, GDP that is not based on first-class system, first-class technology and first-class talents can only be fat but not strong and cannot stand the test. The two largest economies in Asia, Japan and China, ended 2009 in competition.
China still maintains a growth rate of 8.7%, which is expected to soon replace Japan as the second largest economy in the world, and Japan has maintained this position for more than 40 years.
Senior strategist of Royal Bank of Canada Hong Kong Branch said that China is likely to surpass Japan in 2009, and even if it does not, it will surpass Japan at 20 10.
65438+1October 2 1, China announced that its nominal GDP in 2009 was 33.5 trillion RMB, or about 4.9 trillion US dollars. Japan's nominal GDP in 2008 was 505. 1 trillion yen, or $5.5 trillion. It is predicted that Japan's economy will shrink by about 6% in 2009, and its nominal GDP may drop to 5.2 trillion US dollars. According to the plan, Japan will release the data on February 15.
According to the chief economist of Japan's DaiichiLifeResearchInstitute, in terms of nominal GDP, the economic aggregates of Japan and China are very close.
Another analyst said that in the third quarter of 2009, China's economy resumed double-digit growth, and it is predicted that it will remain strong in 20 10, while Japan is likely to retreat to the third place in the world in 20 10 due to persistent deflation and population decline. Without China's economic prosperity, Japan's economy would be even more depressed, because China and Japan are important trading partners.
The fluctuation of exchange rate makes the economies of the two countries very complicated. If the yen continues to weaken, it will accelerate the pace of China becoming the second largest economy.
In a recent report, PricewaterhouseCoopers predicted that China may surpass the United States to become the largest economy around 2020, while India will surpass Japan to become the third largest economy in terms of cost in 2030.
Because China has a population of1300 million, its per capita GDP is far lower than that of Japan with a population of1200 million. According to the data of the International Monetary Fund, China's per capita GDP is only $3,259, ranking 104 in the world, while Japanese per capita GDP is as high as $38,457, ranking 23rd.
After World War II, Japan's economy began to recover rapidly. In the 1980s, it was widely predicted that Japan would surpass the United States. However, after the asset price bubble burst in the early 1990s, its economy experienced a stagnation period of 10 years. It was not until the second quarter of 2009 that Japan's economy resumed positive growth. However, due to falling consumer prices, high public debt and sluggish domestic demand, Japan's economy remains weak.
Over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements. Since 1978, the average annual economic growth rate of China has reached 9%, which is three times the world average. Due to the world economic crisis, China's economic development also showed a trend of slowing down in the second half of 2008, but the huge economic stimulus measures introduced by the China government made its economy rebound in the second half of 2009.