1. Bilateral economic and trade cooperation and development continued to expand.
According to the statistics of China Customs, from June to July, 2002, the trade volume between China and the United States was US$ 5 1 03 1 000, of which US$ 3,629.9 billion was exported, increasing by 1.3% and 2 1.3% respectively.
Imports from the United States reached US$ 65.438+04.733 billion, down 654.38+0.2% year-on-year. Since the beginning of this year, American direct investment in China has maintained rapid growth, and continues to rank first among all countries in terms of investment in China. 1-June, American direct investment in China.
The number of funded projects was 1457, with a contract value of $4.357 billion, and the actual use of US capital was $2.454 billion, increasing by 18.7%, 17.4% and 19.7% respectively over the same period of last year. American investment in China has three remarkable characteristics: first, the actual investment is high; Second, the single investment is high; Third, the investment ratio in manufacturing industry is significant. There are two reasons for the strong trend of American investment in China: China's huge market space, healthy economic development and improvement of investment environment, and American businessmen's good expectations for China after China's entry into WTO.
Second, the unfavorable factors that restrict the development of Sino-US economic and trade relations.
(a) The return of American trade protectionism has strengthened the protection of its domestic industries. Since 200 1 economic growth slowed down, American exports have continued to decline. Although the economy began to recover slowly in 2002, its global trade
The decline has not fundamentally improved. From June 5438 to July, American exports of goods and services decreased by 7.4% year-on-year. In addition, this year's mid-term elections were held in Congress. For the benefit of the party, * * * and the party need to win the support of domestic industries. Therefore, the Bush administration gradually retreated from its trade policy and strengthened the tendency of trade protectionism. The "20 1" clause restricting steel imports has been implemented successively, and a new agricultural subsidy bill has been promulgated. Although this steel safeguard measure is not specifically aimed at China, it also directly affects China's annual steel export of $370 million. There are indications that trade protection in the United States is getting worse, and measures will be taken to add more provisions to protect the rights and interests of domestic workers in future trade agreements, so as to expand the interests of domestic manufacturing sectors such as steel, textiles, automobiles and shipbuilding. The expansion of interest protection in the steel and textile industries in the United States will have a negative impact on our exports.
(2) Putting pressure on China through the inter-agency monitoring procedure and the China performance evaluation report. This year is the first year of China's accession to the WTO, and the US government regards monitoring and urging China to fulfill its WTO commitments as its long-term primary goal of trade policy. At present, an intergovernmental organization coordinated by the Office of the United States Trade Representative and supervised by the Committee of the Bush Administration's Working Group on Trade Policy has been established. This institution includes three levels: working group and Subcommittee; Trade Policy Review Group; National Economic Committee of Congress. Mainly rely on the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Agriculture, the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Labor and the US Patent and Trademark Office to collect information and make an evaluation. In June, 2002, the US-China Security Review Committee published a report on the impact of US-China economic relations on US national security, and concluded that China had delayed and uncoordinated tax rate arrangements, promulgated unscientific laws and regulations on biotechnology that affected trade, failed to strictly abide by the regulations that were beneficial to foreign insurance companies, and had restrictive measures in the field of express delivery services. The United States said yes.
At the end of the year, discussions were put forward in the transitional review mechanism of WTO in China, and it can be predicted that China will face greater pressure in future bilateral economic and trade negotiations.
(c) The US trade deficit with China will continue to be a sensitive issue.
On the issue of trade imbalance, both sides admit that there are differences in trade statistics. In the long run, with the gradual increase of China's imports from the United States, the trade imbalance between China and the United States will be improved. However, in the short term, due to the gradual opening of China market and the reality of high nominal tariff rate and low actual tariff rate, it is unrealistic to expect American goods and services to enter China market in large quantities at once. American exporters are unwilling to face up to this reality, so when the export growth is not as fast as expected, various pressures come one after another and even turn into trade wars. The trade deficit is a sensitive topic in the United States, which has spawned many debates, including questioning the strong dollar policy and so on. Among them, the mainstream is the most serious trade deficit with China, because the China market is not open, and China's exports to the United States should be strictly restricted. According to American statistics, the US trade deficit continued to climb in 2002, reaching $253.338+0.7 billion from June to July, an increase of 5.5% over the same period last year.
5%, of which the trade deficit with China was US$ 52.472 billion, up by 17.6% year-on-year, ranking first among countries.
(D) The anti-dumping and countervailing struggles between China and the United States cannot be ignored.
Ignoring the reality of the establishment and perfection of China's socialist market economy system, the United States has been citing the provisions of Article 13 16 of the Comprehensive Trade and Competition Law of the United States for many years, that is, "the conclusion that any foreign country is recognized as a non-market economy country is still valid until the administrative organ makes a decision to cancel it" and "any resolution of the administrative organ is not allowed for judicial consideration" in the investigation. The United States discriminatorily insists that China is a "non-market economy country", which seriously harms the interests of enterprises and products in China. As of September, 20001,the United States has initiated 87 anti-dumping investigations against China, affecting China's exports to the United States by billions of dollars.
As foreign countries can follow the standard of "non-market economy countries" when conducting anti-dumping investigations on China products within 15 years after China's accession to the WTO, the United States regards it as an effective weapon to stop the surge of China's exports and will make full use of it. On the other hand, countervailing will be a new factor affecting Sino-US trade in the future. According to the countervailing duty law of the United States, those who provide subsidies for the production, manufacture or export of any products shipped to the United States will be subject to additional tariffs equivalent to the amount of subsidies, but only in market economy countries. Because the United States regards China as a country with a "non-market economy system", it has never used countervailing measures against China in the past. Once China removes its label as a non-market economy country, countervailing problems will follow, so I have to make preparations in advance.
In fact, in order to prevent the surge of China's exports to the United States due to its accession to the WTO, the United States has now begun to consider amending the relevant provisions on anti-dumping and countervailing. The report of the US-China Security Review Commission suggests that in the future, the Ministry of Commerce should obtain the approval of Congress before deciding to appoint non-market economy countries to obtain market economy status, and suggests amending the US countervailing law to expand the scope to non-market economy countries, which is also applicable to protecting American industries from unfair competition from imports from non-market economy countries.
(5) The United States has strengthened its export control to China.
For a long time, the United States has tried to strike a balance between obtaining market, improving competitiveness and national security when implementing high-tech export control policies to China. In order to compete with the European Union, Japan and other countries, the United States has to relax the export of some high-tech products, but generally it still maintains the Cold War mentality, fearing that China's economic and military strength will pose a threat to it. In 20001year, the United States approved 990 export licenses to China, involving US$ 227 million, accounting for 2.8% of the total approved exports of the United States. Therefore, the proportion of American high-tech exports to China is very small. Since the expiration of the US Export Administration Act, which authorized the implementation of export control in August 20001,the United States has been maintaining the effectiveness of the export control system through emergency authorization. In June 5438+October 2002 10, at the hearing held by the US-China Security Review Committee, many politicians and scholars said that China should keep its technological and economic level 50 years behind that of the United States by controlling China. At present, the US government has urged Congress to pass a new export management law, so as to implement more effective export control measures against the country and protect the national security interests of the United States. Generally speaking, in the future, the United States will further strengthen the control of high-tech exports to China, especially software and high-tech equipment, focusing on
Strengthen the monitoring of China's nuclear technology and missile technology.
(6) Environmental protection and labor standards are under increasing pressure.
Environmental protection and labor standards are one of the important contents of American trade policy facing 2 1 century. In 2000, the United States adopted the Guiding Principles for Environmental Review of Trade Agreements, and made a detailed analysis and evaluation on whether each trade agreement meets the environmental protection requirements in the future. On August 1 this year, the US Senate passed the Trade Act of 2002, and one of its core contents was to grant the President the Trade Promotion Authorization (TPA) to sign foreign trade agreements. At present, the bilateral free trade agreement signed by the United States and Jordan already includes labor and environmental standards, and the United States may use this as a model to pressure its trading partners to submit. For China, the biggest impact mainly comes from the pressure of environmental protection and labor standards in the United States. At the same time, as Congress strengthens its intervention right in the signing of government trade agreements, Congress will exert greater influence on trade with China.
Three. prospect
In the field of trade, the United States has always regarded China as a big emerging market, and its economic interests are closely linked with its trade relations with China. No matter from the perspective of "integrating China into the world economy" or from the perspective of regional security strategy, it will not harm its trade with China unscrupulously. Trade is the link between the two countries, and it is also an effective sanction weapon to achieve a certain political goal when necessary. As China's second largest trading partner and the largest export market, the important position of the United States is irreplaceable by other countries. Therefore, there is no doubt that developing and stabilizing Sino-US economic and trade relations is the consensus reached by the two great powers.
First of all, China and the United States are important trading partners. After China's accession to the WTO, it will reduce tariff and non-tariff measures in accordance with WTO rules, which will greatly increase the import of American products and gradually reduce China's trade surplus with the United States. Due to the surge in imports and the impact of anti-dumping measures in the United States, it is unlikely that there will be a major breakthrough in exports in the short term. By 2005, the annual growth rate of Sino-US trade will remain at around 13%.
Secondly, Sino-US trade largely depends on the US trade policy towards China. According to the analysis of the United States, the three factors that will affect the US trade policy towards China in the future are: trade deficit with China, domestic unemployment in the United States and domestic unemployment in China.
China fulfills the WTO agreement. In carrying out its trade policy, the United States will use the China-US WTO accession agreement to increase exports to the China market to prevent China.
More competitive products will impact its domestic industries, the United States will launch anti-dumping investigation procedures more frequently, and trade sanctions such as "30 1" clause will restrict China's products exported to the United States. The United States may also use its domestic legislation to undermine WTO rules and pester me. However, sanctions are a double-edged sword, and the tense trade relations between the two sides are unfavorable to the United States in the long run, and the United States is also cautious about this. The United States has the following views on handling trade frictions with China:
(1) Being too harsh on China will affect the United States' support for efforts to promote China, and will also endanger its broader foreign relations and security issues. Not strict with the requirements will also encourage China's non-compliance tendency and face protectionist pressure in domestic trade. Therefore, in the initial stage, it is not appropriate to be too picky about specific issues. What is more important is to push China to fulfill its commitments such as implementing rules and obtaining national treatment, instead of clinging to individual tariff issues or separate market access issues.
(2) Don't highlight the China market too much, because the trade rules of WTO will also safeguard the interests of China.
(3) Use irregular places, or bilaterally, or establish a brand-new mechanism to resolve trade disputes, instead of resorting to the WTO Dispute Settlement Center too much.
(4) We should avoid isolation and cooperate with other countries. In 1980s, the United States and Australia joined forces to fight against Japan's auto parts export, and achieved good results. The United States believes that China should adopt corresponding policies after its entry into WTO.
Ideological differences determine that American trade policy toward China is very complicated, and economic issues are often intertwined with political issues. Recently, China's trade dependence on the United States is stronger than that of the United States on China, which determines that China is at a disadvantage in trade frictions and negotiations, and must handle its economic and trade relations with the United States with caution. Although there will be many problems on the way forward, the foundation of Sino-US economic and trade development is good. In particular, the signing of the Sino-US WTO bilateral agreement and the confirmation of China's status of permanent normal trade relations have eliminated the major obstacles that have hindered the improvement of Sino-US relations and the economic and trade development between China and the United States for a long time, and will play a great role in promoting the economic and trade development between China and the United States in the future. As long as the two sides make joint efforts to enhance mutual understanding and trust by strengthening effective mechanisms such as high-level dialogue and bilateral consultations, the prospects for Sino-US trade are bright.