Putin's presidential campaign triggered a voting storm.

The presidential election on March 4th should be a piece of cake for Vladimir Putin. He should be in charge of the Kremlin for another six years, maybe even 65,438+02 years. However, the alleged fraud in the Russian Duma election on February 4th, 65438 aroused public indignation, which not only triggered the largest street protest in Russia since the early 1990s, but also made Putin face the biggest threat since he took office 12 years ago.

Opposition leaders vowed to run with Putin on the same stage, but there are very few candidates on the ballot at present, because according to the election regulations, there is no time to register new presidential candidates after voting in the Duma election in June 5438+February last year. Russian billionaire prokhorov decided to participate in the presidential election, but he denied the widespread suspicion of his collusion with the Kremlin. The opposition hopes that if Putin fails to win an absolute majority in the first round of voting in March this year, he will at least take part in another decisive election, which will be the first time in Putin's political career.

Afghanistan

The withdrawal of American troops prompted Afghanistan to seek foreign aid.

About one-third of the 65,438+10,000 troops stationed in the United States plan to leave the country before September this year. It is expected that this year will be a transitional year for the United States to gradually reduce its military presence in Afghanistan.

After seizing control of Taliban strongholds in southern Afghanistan, American-led troops began to turn their attention to the mountainous areas in eastern Afghanistan bordering Pakistan, where insurgents can still target the interests of Afghanistan and the United States. In addition, Afghan and American forces are currently accelerating the process of handing over security responsibilities to Afghanistan.

At the same time, American and Afghan negotiators will work together to resume peace talks with the Taliban. Last autumn, a so-called Taliban peace envoy killed Afghanistan's chief negotiator, which led to the breakdown of the talks.

As the United States and its allies drastically reduce the aid funds that once supported Afghanistan's economy, Afghan leaders will strive for long-term overseas support at the NATO summit in Chicago from May 20 to 2/KLOC-0 and the international donor conference in Japan in July this year.

In addition, the second term of Afghan President Hamid Karzai will end in 20 14, and the potential successor is preparing to run for the presidency, or preparing to break out a civil war that will split the country after the withdrawal of western troops, which will be the worst case.

Africa

Old leaders and the needs of young people

In Africa, the old leaders rule the country made up of young people. The average age of the population in these countries is only 19 years old. For this continent, 20 12 may be an eventful autumn.

In West Africa, Senegal's 85-year-old President Abdoulaye Wade is seeking re-election in February after a year of rare protests caused by power shortage. In East Africa, 72-year-old Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni still won a new term, although runaway inflation brought the most severe challenge to his 25-year rule. In southern Africa, 87-year-old Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe called for general elections this year to end the flawed temporary alliance. After the election riots in 2008, the national economy hardly recovered, and hyperinflation gave birth to Zimbabwe's currency with a face value of 100 trillion.

In South Africa, the largest economy on the African continent, 69-year-old President Jacob Zuma intends to win support for winning the next term at an important political meeting of the ruling African National Congress in February, but he still faces fierce opposition from young leaders. These leaders say they are the spokesmen of the unemployed army in this country.

All kinds of tensions in Africa point to the same reality: the demographic factors that once made the young and ambitious middle class rise are injecting new uncertainty into African politics.

20 1 1 year, an uprising led by young people overthrew a series of dictatorships in north Africa. If we can't stimulate economic growth, control inflation and create jobs for the restless young people in the country now, the leaders of sub-Saharan Africa will face similar results.

Mexico

No suitable presidential candidate can be found before the general election in July.

Mexicans will vote for the successor of current Mexican President Felipe Calderon on July 1 day. During his six-year tenure, Calderon fought head-to-head with the drug cartels in the country. By the time Calderon leaves office, the death toll in this war is expected to exceed 60,000.

This is a difficult choice for many voters. Will they follow a ruling party that looks less corrupt but inefficient, or will they please return to the former ruling party that looks more corrupt but more efficient? Or are they willing to bet on Andres Manuel Manuel Lopez Obrador, a leftist who believes that the social system will be completely changed? Six years ago, Obrador narrowly defeated Calderon, who triggered protests that lasted for months.

Many people may choose "none of the above"

So far, the winner is Enrique Pena Nieto, a 45-year-old candidate of the Mexican Revolutionary Institutional Party. Before 2000, the party had quietly and continuously ruled Mexico for 7 1 year. The photogenic former governor of Mexico's most populous state made many mistakes recently: at the book fair, he couldn't name three books that influenced him. In addition, in an interview, he could not answer the price of tortillas, the main food of millions of poor people in Mexico. But his party has powerful machines and the support of major Mexican television networks.

At this time, Calderon's National Action Party has not yet elected a candidate, and it is currently at least 20 percentage points behind the Revolutionary Institutional Party.

No matter which side wins, it will face arduous challenges. This country with weak economic growth will face oil shortage in the next six years. In addition, the new president must effectively control the violence, corrupt police force and judicial system in Mexico.

Venezuela

Chavez fought for his life and political future.

Hugo Chá vez of Venezuela served in the army, and his most famous action was the coup d' é tat in 1992, which failed. But this year, the former officer faced three difficult battles, and even the most military-minded people will be tested in front of these battles.

Chavez must first fight for his life. The 57-year-old president is fighting cancer. Although he himself said that there is no cancer now, the accurate prognosis is a state secret of Venezuela. Many intelligence agencies report that Chavez may not survive 20 12, while his supporters claim that "El Comandante Presidente" will defeat cancer.

At the same time, in the election of June 5438+1October 7, Chavez faced the most severe political struggle since he took office. Venezuela's economy is recovering from recession, the crime rate is rising sharply and the inflation rate is considered to be the highest in the world. The opposition party is uniting and preparing to pick the only candidate to compete with Chavez in February's 12 primary election. Chavez responded by desperately increasing public spending.

His third campaign goal is to prevent Venezuela's finances from getting out of control. It is estimated that Venezuela's budget deficit this year will reach 15% of its annual economic output value. As long as oil prices remain high, Chavez can keep printing money and accumulating debts. If oil prices fall, the Venezuelan authorities may follow in the footsteps of the Greek government.

Myanmar/North Korea

The changes in two isolated countries have attracted attention.

World leaders will pay close attention to whether Myanmar will expand its recent measures to reform its political system and open its economy, and whether the death of dictator Kim Jong Il will bring about similar opening up in northern China, another secret ally of South Korea.

The United States and Europe have long imposed sanctions on these two countries to punish their leaders for human rights violations and suspected development of nuclear weapons.

In the past year, Myanmar officials relaxed their control over the media, released some political prisoners and promised to reform the economic system mainly controlled by the government. Burmese officials also said that they were not involved in North Korea's nuclear proliferation.

The improvement of relations between Myanmar and the United States and Europe makes people suspect that western leaders may relax sanctions on 20 12. In this way, with the influx of oil and gas companies, consumer goods companies and infrastructure giants, Myanmar with a population of 55 million and rich resources may become a hot investment theme.

At present, there are fewer signs of reform in North Korea than in Myanmar. Since Kim Jong Il's death in February 17, the official media in North Korea have always stressed that Kim Jong Il's son and designated successor, Kim Jong-un, will strive to realize his father's last wish-his greatest wish is to unify the Korean Peninsula under Pyongyang's rule.