First, the relatively stable development of relations among major powers is the basis for the sustained relaxation of relations around China.
China's periphery is a place where the interests of great powers meet, and China, the United States, Russia, Japan and India play an important role in the overall development of the region. Although the above-mentioned countries are closely related, their interests are intertwined under the background of globalization, and they strive to maintain cooperation and avoid head-on collision in the competition. Although the United States regards China as its main potential rival and takes measures to prevent and contain China, the two sides share the same interests in the fields of anti-terrorism, North Korea's nuclear issue, maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait, and economic and trade cooperation. The United States still adopts the policy of betting on China on both sides and does not want to confront China. Although the US-Japan alliance has strengthened its side towards China, it is also wary of each other: the United States uses Japan to control China, but it does not want China and Japan to get out of control; It doesn't want to take chestnuts from the beautiful fire when China is made in the United States. Russia, squeezed by American strategy, will remain China's main strategic partner until its national strength is fully restored, and Sino-Russian relations are expected to continue to develop steadily. Although the relationship between India and the United States has developed rapidly, India will not fall to the United States in an all-round way and become a pawn for the United States to contain China. In the foreseeable future, as long as its own strategy is appropriate, China will not become the focus of contradictions among major powers, and there is still ample room for manoeuvre in diplomacy among major powers.
Second, the possibility of hot war in regional hotspots is low.
There are some problems around China, such as the India-Pakistan conflict, the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Province Strait and island disputes in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Due to the continuous easing of India-Pakistan relations, more American involvement in South Asian affairs and mutual nuclear deterrence between India and Pakistan, the possibility of a large-scale military conflict in South Asia has decreased. Due to North Korea's nuclear support, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is facing new complexity. China, South Korea and Russia strongly oppose a military solution to the DPRK nuclear issue, and the United States is trapped in the Middle East and has no time to look east. Therefore, the possibility of a US military strike against North Korea can be basically ruled out in the near future. In the long run, the DPRK nuclear issue may still escalate in turn, but all parties will try their best to control the escalation momentum and avoid war. Regarding the island rights and interests in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, China has been in close consultation with Japanese and South China Sea countries, and all parties hope to solve the problem through negotiations. Although individual occasional conflicts caused by island issues cannot be completely ruled out, it is unlikely to evolve into large-scale armed conflicts. For some time to come, the situation in the Taiwan Strait is still in a period of high risk and increasing uncertainties. Gradually lame, Chen Shui-bian is stepping up the so-called "constitutional reform" to achieve "legal independence of Taiwan Province Province", and does not rule out the possibility that Chen Shui-bian will take further risks. The "Legislative Committee" election in Taiwan Province Province in 2007 and the "General Election" in Taiwan Province Province in 2008 made the situation on the island full of variables. However, as long as the United States adheres to the policy of maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, the anti-"Taiwan independence" forces in Chinese mainland and the island still have the ability to contain Taiwan independence's adventurism. In particular, the core concepts of China's internal affairs and diplomacy pursued by the new central government are: seeking peace from outside, seeking harmony at home, and seeking reconciliation in the situation across the Taiwan Strait. [1] The domestic and foreign policies under the guidance of this concept will help maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Third, non-traditional security issues will become a catalyst for regional security cooperation.
Non-traditional security challenges around China will exist for a long time, and some challenges may become the main security threats of specific countries in a certain period of time. As the international community and regional countries attach importance to non-traditional security issues, regional countries, especially big countries, will take responding to non-traditional security challenges as a channel and opportunity to enhance cooperation and expand their influence, and actively explore and promote cooperation in various frameworks and fields. After the "911"incident, non-proliferation and combating terrorism have become important driving factors for the continuous improvement and strengthening of Sino-US relations. After the Indian Ocean tsunami and South Asia earthquake, major countries made full use of rescue diplomacy, which narrowed the distance with the affected countries and laid the foundation for further developing and consolidating bilateral relations. Under the impetus of the "10+3" mechanism, the cooperation among East Asian countries in the field of non-traditional security has been continuously strengthened. On June+10, 2002, China and ASEAN leaders signed the Joint Declaration on Cooperation between China and ASEAN in Non-traditional Security Field. As a follow-up to the implementation of the Joint Declaration, in June 5438+ 10, 2004, the two sides signed the Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation between China and ASEAN in Non-traditional Security Fields, formulated a medium-and long-term cooperation plan, and carried out more effective cooperation in the fields of counter-terrorism, illegal immigration, drug control, law enforcement and criminal investigation. At the initiative of China, the first ASEAN-China, Japan and South Korea Ministerial Meeting on Combating Transnational Crime was held in Bangkok in June 2004. The meeting adopted the Joint Communiqué of the First ASEAN-China, Japan and South Korea Ministerial Meeting on Combating Transnational Crime, which shows that ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea are determined to strengthen cooperation in combating transnational crime and support the goal of "ASEAN security * * * *". The Shanghai Cooperation Organization takes cracking down on the three forces and maintaining regional security and stability as its primary task. In recent years, cooperation has been gradually strengthened to combat the increasingly serious drug smuggling activities in Central Asia, and the containment and eradication of drug smuggling have been included in the anti-terrorism cooperation framework. Facts show that non-traditional security issues have become the main topic of regional security dialogue and cooperation, and will become a lubricant to improve regional relations and a link to strengthen security and mutual trust.