Currency name: spot exchange rate buying rate: cash buying rate

6865438 USD+0.6400 USD 676.438 USD +0.800 USD

Swiss franc 627.4200 6 14. 1900

Singapore dollar Singapore dollar 469.3400 459.4400

Swedish krona SEK 89.2600 87.3800

Danish krone 127.6500

Norwegian krone 106.5200

Japanese yen is 7.65438 US dollars.

Canadian dollar 6 12.0900 599.438+0900

Australian dollar Australian dollar 534.9000 523.6200

950.3800 euros

MOP 85.4200 84.7000

Philippine peso 14.3900

Thai baht 19.8000 19.3900

NZD 42 1.8700

GBP 1, 089. 1300 1, 066.6438+0600.

HKD 87.9200 87.5438+000

Won 0.5 100 won

The exchange rate table data was updated on May 29th, 2009 19: 2 1: 28.

Question 1:

For example: the exchange rate of the US dollar ① The exchange rate rises-the local currency depreciates-the foreign currency appreciates-the selling price of domestic goods in different places falls-the competitiveness improves-it is beneficial to export-it is not conducive to import-the price of this commodity rises in the domestic market; (2) Decline in exchange rate-appreciation of local currency-depreciation of foreign currency-rise in prices of domestic commodities in different places-decline in competitiveness-unfavorable to exports-favorable to imports-decline in commodity prices in the domestic market.

Question 3:

Influence of RMB exchange rate change on China's national economy

Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2002, its foreign trade volume has increased rapidly, its trade surplus has expanded year after year, and its foreign exchange reserves have exceeded one trillion yuan. The RMB is under constant pressure of appreciation. In order to adjust the balance of payments and reduce the pressure of RMB appreciation, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies on July 2, 2005. The RMB exchange rate is no longer pegged to a single dollar, forming a more flexible RMB exchange rate mechanism. The RMB appreciated by 2% against the US dollar today, that is, 1 USD rose to 8. 1 1 RMB to 8.2765 RMB. Two years later, after the exchange rate reform, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar fluctuated upward. By the end of April this year, the cumulative appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar exceeded 7%.

The change of RMB exchange rate has not only attracted the attention of the world, but also the people of China, because 20 years ago, Japan, which was similar to China, was also faced with the pressure of yen appreciation. As a result, the Japanese economy suddenly stagnated for ten years because of the appreciation of the yen. People are worried about whether the change of RMB exchange rate in China will also lead to the Japanese predicament. However, it has been two years since the RMB exchange rate reform, and the RMB has appreciated by 7% as a whole. What impact has the appreciation of RMB brought to China's economy? As we all know, investment, export and consumption are the three troikas that drive China's national economy. Today, we mainly analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China's import and export trade and China residents' consumption.

First, the impact of RMB appreciation on China's imports.

After the appreciation of RMB, the price of imported goods changed from foreign currency to RMB, which reduced the cost of imported goods and the expenses paid in the import process. According to the theory of demand elasticity, the higher the demand elasticity, the greater the adjustment of import volume caused by the change of import price. Due to the differences in price elasticity of different industries, the impact of RMB appreciation on different import industries is also different. The industries with high import dependence in China mainly include oil and gas exploration, paper making, steel, petrochemical, aviation, transportation and power equipment. The appreciation of RMB will reduce the import cost of bulk transactions, thus improving the profitability of related industries, which is of great benefit to China's economic construction.

At present, China is in the development stage of heavy chemical industry, and economic development needs many important strategic materials, such as oil, iron ore and copper. , must be imported. The large increase in demand in China has led to the soaring prices of international related commodities, which greatly increased the construction cost in China. A moderate appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to enhancing our purchasing power of raw materials and reducing the impact of rising oil and raw material prices on the economy. At the same time, enterprises engaged in import trade can get more profits.

The appreciation of RMB will reduce the price of imported goods, which will have an impact on imported substitute industries and domestic similar products, especially those products that still have a big gap with the world advanced level in terms of quality, brand and technical content, which will affect their market price and market share and lead to the deterioration of their profitability. Such industries mainly include transportation equipment manufacturing, electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, etc.

Generally speaking, the appreciation of RMB is beneficial to imports.

Second, the impact of RMB appreciation on China's exports.

For China, a country with a large trade surplus, the negative impact of currency appreciation on many export enterprises is inevitable. From the perspective of industry, it has the greatest negative impact on the textile industry. The appreciation of RMB will lead to the decrease of import price and the increase of export price. China's textile and garment industry has been highly dependent on exports for a long time, and will face the impact of income decline with price as the main means of competition.

Relevant statistics show that the export dependence of cotton textile, wool textile and clothing is 20%, 27% and 60% respectively. Through calculation, for every appreciation of RMB 1%, the profit margins of cotton textile, wool textile and garment industries will decrease by 3. 19%, 2.27% and 6. 18% respectively. The clothing industry is the most affected because it is the most dependent on exports. Although the European Union has published the action guide for special restrictions on China's textiles, and the United States has also launched an investigation on three kinds of textiles in China, the export transactions of clothing and textiles have achieved a certain growth. Therefore, the textile industry that relies on exports is under great pressure. Agriculture is also an industry greatly affected by the appreciation of RMB. Among them, enterprises with a significant proportion of exports are the hardest hit areas.

Third, the impact of RMB appreciation on China residents' consumption.

The continued strength of RMB has brought obvious benefits to ordinary people in China. After the appreciation of RMB, the import price of overseas raw materials will be cheaper, the impact of rising oil and raw material prices on the economy will be weakened, and people can share cheaper overseas goods. In addition, with the increasing international purchasing power of RMB, China people can also travel and study abroad at lower cost. For example, in June, 2006, 5438- 10, the appreciation of RMB against Hong Kong dollar reached 0.42%, slightly higher than that of RMB against US dollar. 165438+1On October 23rd, the exchange rate of Hong Kong dollar against RMB fell below the 1.0 1 mark for the first time. The news that the exchange rate between the RMB and the Hong Kong dollar is "upside down" has made the Hong Kong and Macao tour groups in Guangzhou happy. Affected by the appreciation of RMB, people will have more benefits when shopping in Hong Kong, and they can buy more goods with the same amount of RMB. It is expected that Hong Kong will usher in a bigger shopping tide in the future.

In fact, conversely, the appreciation of RMB does not mean that all foreign currencies depreciate. From the trend of major non-US dollar currencies (euro, Japanese yen and Hong Kong dollar) against RMB in June 5438+065438+ 10, 2006, we can see that while the US dollar and Hong Kong dollar fell against RMB, the euro and Japanese yen rose against RMB instead of falling. Under China's current foreign exchange system, when the increase of non-US dollar currencies against the US dollar exceeds the depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB, these currencies (mainly euros, Japanese yen, etc.). ) It will appreciate against the RMB. Hong Kong has implemented the linked exchange rate system for 23 years, and the Hong Kong dollar is actually linked to the US dollar. Therefore, for more than a year, the Hong Kong dollar has been depreciating with the US dollar against the RMB. In this sense, for ordinary people in China, the "preferential treatment" directly enjoyed in the short term is the consumption items denominated in US dollars and Hong Kong dollars under the current situation of continuous appreciation of RMB. When going abroad to Europe or Japan, the level of consumption cost will be affected by the appreciation of regional currencies against the US dollar. Therefore, consumers are advised to choose the United States (or countries and regions that spend in dollars) and Hong Kong as tourism consumption channels to fully enjoy the benefits brought by RMB appreciation.

4. What countermeasures should we take in the face of the impact of RMB appreciation?

Whether RMB appreciation will delay China's economic development cannot be generalized by international experience. Although Japan's national conditions at that time were similar to China's, the yen at that time was obviously overvalued. The change of RMB appreciation has little influence on China's current economic development, which shows that RMB is not overvalued, and there is still a lot of room for appreciation. A certain degree of appreciation will not slow down China's economic development, but may also give China's economic development. Between rising and not rising, we should grasp a degree and do:

1, comprehensively consider the affordability of China's economy, and stabilize the expectation of exchange rate appreciation.

The calculation shows that the rapid appreciation of RMB will bring adverse effects on China's economic growth, employment, agriculture, textile, machinery, electronics and other industries in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate should not appreciate significantly in the short term. In practice, we should steadily push forward the reform of the exchange rate mechanism, moderately control the exchange rate level, and avoid financial market turmoil and major economic fluctuations. Therefore, according to the changes in the balance of payments, we should moderately intervene in the foreign exchange market, maintain the basic stability of the RMB, let the RMB exchange rate form a benign floating state with small fluctuations, and prevent unilateral appreciation to stabilize exchange rate expectations.

2. Improve the exchange rate formation mechanism and continuously improve the degree of marketization.

Implementing exchange rate floating and perfecting exchange rate formation mechanism complement each other and are mutually causal. The exchange rate formation mechanism is not perfect, so it is difficult to form a reasonable and balanced exchange rate level; Without the gradual floating of the exchange rate, it is impossible to breed a perfect exchange rate formation mechanism. With the adjustment of the exchange rate system and level, the People's Bank of China has intensively implemented measures such as allowing non-financial institutions to enter the market and launching derivatives such as forwards and swaps to accelerate the development of the inter-bank foreign exchange market. At the same time, gradually relax foreign exchange control, so that the RMB exchange rate level can more reflect the relationship between market supply and demand. At present, we should pay close attention to the influence of market reaction and exchange rate reform on all aspects, further improve the RMB exchange rate control mechanism, and provide more and better hedging tools for enterprises and banks. Accelerate the development of the foreign exchange market and various foreign exchange derivatives, increase market trading entities, and non-bank financial institutions and foreign trade enterprises gradually enter the inter-bank market to participate in transactions; Improve the market maker system and allow powerful banks to provide sufficient liquidity for the foreign exchange market; Cultivate market intermediaries such as foreign exchange brokers and foreign exchange exchanges, and build a diversified market trading model; Continue to improve the supporting measures for exchange rate reform, further deepen the reform of foreign exchange management system, improve the management of foreign exchange settlement and sale positions of banks, and finally realize the transition from compulsory foreign exchange settlement system to willing foreign exchange settlement system for domestic enterprises; Strengthen supervision of capital projects. For capital projects, we should change the current policy trend of "strict entry and wide exit" and implement the capital management policy of "strict entry and strict exit", which not only prevents hot money without real trade and investment background from entering easily, but also prevents it from flowing smoothly and maximizes its investment cost.

3. Adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand and ease the pressure of RMB appreciation.

Exchange rate changes can correct the trade imbalance, but the history of trade development in the United States, Japan and the United States and Europe also shows that it is difficult to effectively solve the trade imbalance problem only by relying on exchange rate adjustment. Under open conditions, trade imbalance is a direct manifestation of the imbalance between total demand and total supply. Adjusting trade development depends not only on exchange rate adjustment, but also on domestic demand adjustment. Therefore, China should persist in expanding domestic demand and keep investment, consumption, employment and prices relatively stable. By expanding domestic demand, increasing imports, reducing the dependence of national economic development on exports and foreign capital, and maintaining the basic balance of international payments.