At the beginning of economic recovery, the demand for corporate loans was weak. In the early stage of economic recovery, the financing needs of enterprises are generally solved through their own funds, not through bank channels. Therefore, contrary to the relaxation of bank loan standards, corporate loan demand has been declining since February 2008, but the downward trend slowed down in June. Since June, the decline in demand for commercial real estate loans has not slowed down.
Credit card default rate and mortgage default rate are still rising. While the unemployment rate is still rising, the credit card default rate and mortgage default rate are still rising.
It will take the banking industry at least three years to absorb most of the mortgage losses. As we said in the monthly report in May, according to the results of stress tests, the total losses that major banks in the United States may suffer in the next two years may be as high as $599.2 billion. However, Bank of America earned $654.38+084.6 billion before provision in 2008 and $654.38+069.2 billion before provision in 2007. According to the profit level of Bank of America before provision in 2007 and 2008, it will take Bank of America at least three years to absorb most of the mortgage losses.
We believe that the worst period of American banking has passed, and there will still be huge securities losses in the future, but the asset impairment will be carried out at a predictable speed, and the recovery of the banking industry will be a slow process.
(2) It takes a long time to repair the damaged personal balance sheet.
From the quarter of/kloc-0 in 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2008, the ratio of American household net worth to disposable personal income has dropped from 6.3 times to 4.8 times. The huge wealth loss of American families in the financial tsunami has changed consumers' behavior patterns, and the personal savings rate has risen sharply from near zero before the crisis to 5.7% at present, and there are signs of further increase. At the same time, in the stage of economic recovery, enterprises are very cautious about adding new manpower, so after economic recovery, the unemployment rate may remain at a high level for some time. It is predicted that the unemployment rate will remain at the level of 10% in 20 10. In the case of high unemployment rate, it is difficult for residents' consumption to increase significantly.
This will make it impossible for consumption, which accounts for more than 70% of US GDP, to extend its contribution rate to US GDP growth by 2% for four consecutive years from 2004 to 2007. In 2008, the contribution rate of this part to GDP growth has dropped to 0. 16%. The financial crisis has changed the traditional consumption pattern of Americans, and it will take a long time to repair the damaged personal balance sheet.
At present, the financial crisis in the United States has come to an end, housing prices have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding, and the credit market has gradually resumed its lending function. However, the impact of the financial crisis on the real economy will continue, manifested in high unemployment rate, declining consumption power of residents and insufficient investment confidence of enterprises. At present, the American economy is still in the process of bottoming out, and it will take a long time to repair the damaged balance sheets of banks and individuals in the future.