Recently, the exchange of fire between the Ukrainian authorities and the eastern anti-government civilian armed forces has become the norm, and the "Minsk ceasefire agreement" has been broken again. Ukrainian President poroshenko announced the escalation of the situation and issued a presidential decree to allow government troops to open fire. Affected by the situation in Syria, the focus of the international community has gradually turned to the Middle East, and the Ukrainian crisis will face a long-term trend.
The ceasefire agreement was broken again.
In February this year, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France reached an agreement in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, on comprehensive measures for a long-term political solution to the Ukrainian crisis and a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. Since then, sporadic conflicts have continued in eastern Ukraine, and both sides of the conflict have accused each other of undermining the Minsk ceasefire agreement.
654381October 2, the leaders of the four countries held peace talks on Ukraine in Paris. After the meeting, Uzbek President poroshenko announced that weapons and equipment near the contact zone would be withdrawn on1October 3. Since then, the two sides have successively withdrawn their weapons from the contact zone and achieved a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.
However, since 5438+0 1 in early June, the exchange of fire incidents has obviously increased. Both sides publicly stated that the situation in the east may worsen and accused the other side of violating the ceasefire agreement.
Turchinov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Committee of Ukraine, said in Kiev on June 1 1 that the peace process in eastern Ukraine was on the verge of being destroyed. Turchinov accused the anti-government civilian armed forces in eastern Ukraine of sabotaging the peace process, saying that the short-lived peace in eastern Ukraine may be broken at any time and the peace situation is very fragile. Anti-government civilian armed forces in eastern Ukraine denied the above allegations, saying that the responsibility for the current situation lies with Ukrainian government forces.
Ukrainian President poroshenko issued a presidential decree on June 1 1, allowing Ukrainian government forces to fire when their lives were threatened. At the same time, he said that the risks and threats to Ukraine's national security and territorial integrity have risen sharply. On June 5438+05, poroshenko officially announced the escalation of the situation in eastern Ukraine, saying that Ukrainian government forces were ready to fight back.
According to Ukrainian media reports, the meeting of the Tripartite Contact Group on Ukraine will be held in Minsk on June 5438+07. Earlier, Denis Pushilin, a representative of the "Donetsk Republic", said that the situation escalated because some Ukrainian government forces started a dispute. These soldiers refused to accept the management of Kiev and took the lead in shooting.
101On October 25th, Ukraine held local elections according to the new version of the Local Election Law. The election work has been basically completed and the results have been released recently. However, the eastern cities of Mali, upor and Kla Si Nuo Almisk, which should have held elections according to law, cancelled their voting for some reason. These two eastern cities have important strategic significance. In response, Uzbek President poroshenko signed a law on holding local elections specifically for these two cities, stipulating that elections will be held in these two cities on the 29th of this month.
Analysts believe that the escalation of the situation in Ukraine is closely related to the sudden change in the situation in Syria. Since Russia launched an anti-terrorism air strike in Syria on September 30, a new round of game between the United States, Europe and Russia has begun. The Ukrainian crisis, the European refugee problem and the fight against the "Islamic State" have formed a linkage effect. The balance and understanding established by all parties on the Ukrainian crisis have been broken, and then all parties will surely launch a new round of bargaining around the Ukrainian issue.
It is reported on the website of Ukrainian President 13 that US Vice President Biden will visit Ukraine again in early June of 5438+02, when he will meet with Ukrainian President poroshenko, Prime Minister Yazenuk, Verkhovna Rada and representatives of social organizations. This will be Biden's fifth visit to Ukraine since he took office.
The Ukrainian-Russian debt problem needs to be solved urgently.
During the reign of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych, Russia purchased 3 billion US dollars of national debt from Ukraine, which will expire in June 5438+February this year. 165438+1On October 9, the finance ministers of Russia and Ukraine held talks on Ukraine's repayment of Russia's $3 billion debt, but no debt restructuring agreement was reached. The Ukrainian authorities expressed their inability to repay the debt, calling it a commercial debt, and proposed debt restructuring within the framework of the agreement. Russia said that this is a national debt, and it must be paid off within a time limit, otherwise Ukraine will be declared to default.
The Russian authorities said that once Ukraine defaults, it will take Ukraine to court. Russian Finance Minister Antony Lu Si Anoff said that if Ukraine could not pay off its debts in June+February, 5438, Russia was prepared to resort to the International Arbitration Court and the International Monetary Fund. The last time Ukraine paid the loan interest was in June 20 15. Now Russia expects Ukraine to fully pay off the loan on June 20 12 this year.
Sergei Stolchak, deputy finance minister of Russia (month165438+1month 10) said: "We finally hope to solve the problem, and we don't want Ukraine, a potential borrower in the financial market, to bear major consequences. They should not always rely on loans from international financial organizations. " He also pointed out: "This is a choice, either paying off the loan on schedule,