An official of the Trump administration said that the tariff exemption of relevant countries will lead to tariff increase in other countries to maintain the 80% capacity utilization target of domestic producers (steel and aluminum) in the United States.
Directly speaking, this policy has limited impact on China's steel industry and aluminum industry, especially on the steel industry.
The United States is the largest steel importer in the world. According to the data of American Iron and Steel Association, in 20 17 years, the United States imported 38 12 10000 tons of steel, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. Among them, the finished steel was 29.558 million tons, up 65.438+02.2% year-on-year. In the ranking of finished steel imports, China ranks seventh, with imports of 810.3 million tons, 5.7% lower than that of 20 16, accounting for 2.75% of the total imports of finished steel in the United States.
China's steel production accounts for about half of the world's total output, and its export volume also ranks first in the world. Since 20 1 1, China's steel exports have maintained double-digit growth year after year, and the export volume reached a peak of1.1.200 million tons in 20 15 years. After 20 15, influenced by international trade protectionism and domestic supply-side reform, steel exports entered the downward channel. 20 16 exports10.8 million tons, down 3.5% year-on-year. In 20 17, the export was 754 100 tons, down 30% year-on-year.
What is the impact of the United States imposing a 25% tariff on China's steel exports?
(Source: Xinhua News Agency)
Although the total export volume has been rising, China's steel exports to the United States are decreasing year by year. According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Research Center, a third-party market research institution, in 2006, China exported 5.4 million tons of steel to the United States, accounting for 12.56% of China's total steel exports that year. By 20 17, China will export US steel1180,000 tons, accounting for only 1.56% of China's total steel exports. In the ranking of steel exporters in China, the United States dropped from the second place in 2006 to the eighth place in 20 17.
China's shrinking steel exports to the United States are influenced by frequent trade investigations in the United States.
The United States is the country that initiated the most anti-dumping and countervailing actions against China's steel products. According to the data of the US Department of Commerce, by the end of 20 18, there were 169 anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties against steel products in the United States, of which 29 were against China. At the same time, the United States initiated a number of safeguard measures or special safeguard investigations on China's steel products, and restricted the export of China's steel products to the United States with various forms of tariffs.
Wang Guoqing, director of Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, told Caijing that from the overall export scale of China's steel products, China's steel production capacity involved in US tariff protection is not large, but China's steel exports to the United States may shrink further.
China's aluminum exports account for about 10% of the annual output. In 20 17, exports to the United States accounted for about 14% of China's total exports of aluminum products. Due to the sharp rise in international aluminum prices, the competitiveness of China aluminum products suppressed by double-reverse tariffs in the United States has been enhanced. From June 5438 to February this year, China exported 8 1.7 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products to the United States, a year-on-year increase of 26%.
The Trump administration's tariff on aluminum is much lower than that on steel. On February 27th this year, the U.S. Department of Commerce made a final ruling on the anti-dumping and countervailing investigation of aluminum foil products exported from China, and the aluminum enterprises in China involved faced the highest 1.86% double-reverse tax rate. In contrast, the new tariff of 10% is not a priority for China Aluminum.
Chi Jingdong, vice president of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, told Caijing that he was more worried that the protective tariffs of the United States would have a bad demonstration effect, set off a new trend of trade protection around the world, and further affected China's steel exports to other countries.
American trade measures often cause other countries to follow suit. Take the photovoltaic industry as an example. On 20 1 1, 1 1, the US Department of Commerce launched a double-reverse investigation on China's photovoltaic products, and one year later, the EU followed up with a double-reverse investigation on China's photovoltaic products. In the steel industry, China is also frequently subjected to double-reverse investigations by the European Union.
Due to the double protective tariffs in Europe and America, the focus of China's steel export has shifted to countries outside the European Union and the United States. In 20 16, China exported 69,092,900 tons of steel to ASEAN, the Middle East and South Korea, an increase of 3,956110,000 tons, an increase of 6.07%, accounting for 63.69% of the total export.
ASEAN is the main region of China's steel export. In 20 16, China exported 38,937,500 tons of steel to ASEAN, up by 12.62% year-on-year, accounting for 35.89% of the total export, up by 5. 13 percentage points compared with 20 15. In 20 16, China's top five steel exporters were Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia.
On April 20 17, the U.S. department of commerce launched the "232 investigation" on imported steel and aluminum products respectively (which means that the U.S. department of commerce filed an investigation on whether the import of specific products threatened the national security of the United States according to Article 232 of the Trade Expansion Act 1962). On February 16 this year, the US Department of Commerce released an investigation report saying that imported steel products seriously damaged domestic industries and threatened national security.
The U.S. Department of Commerce proposes three sanctions in the steel field: 1, and all steel exporting countries entering the United States will levy a unified import tariff of 24%; 2. Impose a tariff of at least 53% on specific countries or regions (Brazil, China, Costa Rica, Egypt, India, Malaysia, South Korea, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam), and other countries implement the same import quota as 20 17; 3. Implement a quota system equivalent to 63% of the import volume of 20 17 for all steel importing countries.
Trump finally chose the first option and raised the tax rate to 25%. The tariff protection policy triggered the rise of American steel prices. According to the data of Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, taking hot-rolled steel coils as an example, the ex-factory price of steel mills in the midwest of the United States was 7 18 USD/ton in early February, and it has risen to 789 USD/ton at the end of the month; Rebar was $606/ton at the beginning of the month and has risen to $694/ton at the end of the month.
On March 9th, the share prices of China's largest steel exporters all fell slightly. Shagang shares (002075. SZ), which ranked first for many years, is in suspension. Opening price of Benxi steel plate (00076 1. SZ) was 5. 10 yuan, closing at 5.08 yuan, down 0.59%. TISCO stainless steel (000825. SZ) opened at 6.7 1 yuan and closed at 6.59 yuan, down 2.37%; Baoshan iron and steel (6000 19. SH) It opened at 9.42 yuan and closed at 9. 10 yuan, down 2.99%. Angang Steel (000898. SZ) opened at 6.75 yuan and closed at 6.62 yuan, down 2.07%.