The automobile industry has a long chain and a high degree of globalization, and one link is blocked, which is likely to hinder the orderly development of the entire industrial chain.

Since February, the COVID-19 epidemic has blocked the production and logistics of China's automobile supply chain, and affected automobile factories in many countries in the world, such as Japan and South Korea, forcing them to stop production. In order to maintain production, some overseas manufacturers pack parts made in China in suitcases and fly them to their destinations regardless of transportation costs.

In March, the epidemic began to spread rapidly overseas, and overseas automobile-related manufacturing industries had to press the pause button. Faced with the risk of overseas supply failure, many domestic enterprises recently told us that the crisis is still under control. However, under the crisis, the shortcomings of China's automobile supply chain are increasingly exposed, and some vulnerable groups may face the test of survival.

The crisis of "no supply" is still controllable.

The "supply cut-off" caused by the global epidemic is a real risk faced by China automobile industry chain, and there are many controllable means. In addition to their own stable inventory, it is a common practice for most enterprises to actively seek alternative supplier channels.

Taking Geely Automobile as an example, it is understood that in terms of spare parts inventory and effective reserve of Japanese and Korean suppliers, the model of three-month warehouse demand and 1 month demand on the way can basically be realized. "Don't panic when there is food in the warehouse," said Geely Automobile.

Ensuring safety stock is industry knowledge, but the length of time is slightly different. At present, overseas OEMs generally require local suppliers to ensure five-day safe spare parts inventory. For overseas suppliers, considering the transportation cycle, a month's safety stock is needed.

"Affected by overseas epidemics, the supply of spare parts is under great pressure. For vehicle manufacturers, reserving spare parts in advance will not affect the normal production and sales of enterprises in a short time, "Yutong Bus, the largest manufacturer of pure electric buses in China, said, but at the same time, it also said that in order to avoid the intensification of global supply chain outages caused by overseas epidemics, it is actively looking for alternative supplier channels to ensure the sustainability of its production and sales links.

Coincidentally, Chery Jaguar Land Rover also believes that although the current inventory of imported and domestic parts can meet the recent production demand, considering the impact of overseas epidemic on the potential supply risk of imported parts, it is necessary to make preparations in advance, including continuous evaluation of replacement parts, replacement of secondary parts and raw materials, mold transfer and logistics emergency plan.

Facing the crisis of "supply chain rupture", Weimar Automobile, a new force in automobile manufacturing, also put forward the same plan: open to all qualified suppliers and suppliers who meet Weimar's quality standards, technical requirements, delivery cycle and cost requirements.

It is also known that because 20 suppliers in Europe and America stop production, involving 50-60 kinds of imported parts (including parts imported by domestic suppliers for the second time), there are supply risks, and Dongfeng Nissan is actively looking for localization alternatives.

Technical blank "short board" exposure

However, it is not easy to find domestic substitutes.

As far as the automobile supply chain is concerned, the export volume of overseas epidemic areas accounts for more than 50% of the world. European and American countries have obvious advantages in the fields of chips, computing platforms and precision parts, while Japan and South Korea have strong advantages in the fields of automotive electronics, optical instruments and integrated circuits. Many key parts and equipment of China automobile come from these areas.

The core components are heavily dependent on imports, and the core technology is almost blank in China, which is an increasingly exposed industry "short board" under the overseas epidemic.

A person from a domestic mainstream parts enterprise bluntly said in an interview with Gaspar: "The research and development cycle of automobile core parts generally takes 2-3 years. At present, China's technical fields such as high-speed bearings and control chips are still blank. There are very few domestic power electronic components that can get on the bus, and many times we have to rely on foreign suppliers. "

At present, the core components of domestic smart car products, such as SOC/MCU/ memory, are mainly imported from overseas. In this regard, Grubo Science and Technology Co., Ltd. believes that in the past two years, although a considerable number of new companies have appeared in the core components of smart cars, such as Sandian, ADAS and Chassis by Wire, there is still no real "unicorn" in the field of core technology components.

As a large domestic automobile electronics enterprise, the relevant staff of Desai Siwei revealed that automobile electronic products cannot be separated from some foreign raw materials, such as semiconductors. Domestic semiconductors are still in their infancy, and most auto parts companies still rely on semiconductor manufacturers in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea. It is understood that most of the factories of European and American semiconductor manufacturers are located in East Asia and Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia and the Philippines closed their doors due to the epidemic, requiring all enterprises to stop work and isolate, resulting in limited production of most raw materials and serious impact on logistics and transportation.

The imbalance of business forms is the "aftershock" of the epidemic.

However, the outbreak of overseas epidemic not only led to "supply cut-off", but also brought a series of chain reactions.

According to the survey of gaston Automobile, the relationship between whole and zero may deteriorate during the extraordinary epidemic period, and some vehicle manufacturers may lower prices or cancel orders and delay payment. The reduction of overseas orders will directly affect the sales of suppliers, and the supply of other receivables and raw materials will be more difficult. At the same time, under the overseas epidemic, the rising prices of imported raw materials and spare parts have become a major thorny issue in the current industry.

In this regard, Grupo related people believe that the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain is objective and actual, and some OEMs will launch corresponding solutions in a special period. However, the supply chain itself also needs to strike while the iron is hot. Under this premise, opportunity is opportunity, otherwise it can only be an opportunity of "others' home".

It is reported that Grubo provides the core components of the drive-by-wire chassis, including ABS, ESC, EPB, IBC, EBS, one-box, etc., as well as the overall solution of the drive-by-wire chassis. The automobile control chips involved in the products are imported from abroad, and the motor and other parts are purchased at home. At present, although Grupo overseas buyers have not cancelled orders, there is no continuous plan for orders in the second quarter.

According to the recent survey of domestic auto parts enterprises, most enterprises still believe that the state or local government should introduce some supporting policies, such as site use fees, talent subsidies, tax relief and so on. In addition, they also suggest that the state can gradually increase some policies to promote the development of this industry. They believe that the recovery of the automobile market needs a series of continuous promotion.

"Without policy support, some private enterprises, especially small and medium-sized private enterprises, will face capital chain breakage or even bankruptcy." A domestic mainstream parts company said.

Once the first fallen domino appears in the automobile supply chain, the ecological balance of the whole industry will be affected and impacted in the short term.

Adjust the layout to avoid risks

How to avoid or minimize the impact of epidemic globalization on supply chain industry? The industry has thought.

According to the judgment of Zhang Zuqiu, general manager of Baolong Technology, after the epidemic, downstream customers will re-examine the security of the supply chain and consider diversifying supply chain risks more, such as further enhancing the global layout of the supply chain or having a complete supply chain system locally.

If the Sino-US trade war wakes us up and makes the whole industry realize that we should firmly hold the core technology in our own hands; Then the global epidemic has once again awakened us, and we should have a plan B at any time. "Whether in the field of new energy or in the field of traditional automobiles, the supply chain is facing bottlenecks. Enterprises must have a backup plan and do it themselves. " ? Huang Yonghe, director of the China Automotive Strategy and Policy Research Center, believes that "this requires two aspects of cooperation. One is the support of special government funds, and the other is that the OEM should consider the adjustment of the entire supply chain, especially the stuck neck project."

Under the aftershock of the epidemic, it is time for China automobile supply chain to re-examine the industrial structure.

"Car Trends" is an industry focus observation column jointly created by China electric vehicle committee of 100 and Gaspar. Focus on the electrification and intelligence of automobiles, and provide industry development trends and interpretations of policies, markets and enterprises related to automobile supply chain, so as to contribute to the development of automobile industry.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.