The risk of real estate investment involves policy risk, social risk, technical risk, natural risk and international risk, among which economic risk is the main risk that has great influence on real estate investment and can be predicted and avoided. Economic risks mainly include market interest rate risk, capital realization risk and purchasing power risk.
1, interest rate risk
The risk of interest rate changes in the real estate market refers to the impact of interest rate changes on the real estate market and the possible losses to investors.
When the interest rate rises, the capital cost of real estate developers and operators will increase, and consumers' desire to buy will decrease. Therefore, the whole real estate market will form, on the one hand, the production cost will increase; On the other hand, the market demand has decreased. This will undoubtedly bring losses to investors and operators.
2. capital settlement risk
The risk of realizing capital is to convert non-monetary assets or securities into money. The difficulty of converting assets or securities into money is different. Generally speaking, the liquidity of savings deposits and checks is the best, followed by stock foreign exchange, futures and bond investment, and the liquidity of real estate investment is poor. The risk of realizing real estate funds mainly refers to the fact that real estate commodities can't be converted into currency or delayed to be converted into currency due to changes in the entrance and mode of realizing in the transaction process, thus bringing losses to real estate operators.
3. Purchasing power risk
Purchasing power risk mainly refers to the change of consumers' purchasing power in the market, which leads to real estate products can not be digested according to the market and causes economic losses. Purchasing power risk is a kind of demand risk, and demand is a very uncertain factor in the market economy system. Because the purchasing power of consumers is constantly changing, affected by the working environment, living environment, social environment and consumption structure, if the overall market demand drops, it will bring losses to real estate investors and operators.
Second, the real estate investment risk prevention strategy
The prevention and treatment of real estate investment risks is to take corresponding measures and methods according to different types, different probabilities and different scales, so as to avoid real estate investment risks or minimize the risks in the process of real estate investment.
1, investment diversification strategy
Diversification of real estate investment is to reduce risks through diversification of development structure, which generally includes diversification of investment fields, diversification of investment time and homogenization of investment. The regional decentralization of real estate investment is to disperse real estate investment to different regions, so as to avoid the impact of economic recession investment in specific regions and achieve the purpose of reducing risks. The purpose of real estate investment time dispersion is to determine a reasonable investment time interval, so as to avoid losses caused by market changes. For example, when the leading indicators of real estate, such as economic growth rate, per capita income and implied amount, change obviously, the loan interest rate drops from the peak, and the land use right granted by the state starts to rise from the trough, which indicates that the real estate industry cycle will enter the expansion stage. This is the best time to invest, so you can concentrate on investing. * * * Joint investment is also a common way to spread risks. * * * The partners who are required to invest in development * * * will invest in real estate development, sharing benefits and risks, fully mobilizing the enthusiasm of all investors, giving full play to their respective advantages and avoiding risks. For example, cooperation with financial departments and consortia can make use of its financial advantages to eliminate the risk of real estate financing; Alliances with foreign investors can not only introduce advanced technology and management experience, but also obtain preferential policies for real estate investment and development.
2. Portfolio and insurance
It is very necessary for real estate investors to buy insurance, which is one of the main ways to transfer or reduce the risk of real estate investment. Insurance is of great significance to reduce or make up for the losses of real estate investors, realize the circulation of funds, ensure the profits of real estate investors, especially improve the reputation of real estate investors and promote the development of real estate business activities. Generally speaking, the real estate insurance business mainly includes home insurance, property rights insurance, mortgage insurance and real estate entrusted insurance. When buying insurance, real estate investors should consider the types of insurance that rebellious real estate investors need, determine the appropriate amount of insurance, rationally divide risk units and determine rates, and choose insurance companies with good reputation.
Real estate portfolio strategy is a real estate investment strategy that investors invest in different types of real estate according to the risk degree and annual profitability of real estate investment and certain principles. For example, real estate developers can invest part of their money in ordinary houses and part in high-grade office buildings. Because different types of real estate have different investment risks and different returns. On the basis of high-risk investment, the rate of return is relatively high, and on the basis of low-return investment, the risk is relatively low. If the funds are invested in different real estate development, the overall investment risk will be reduced. Its essence is to make up for the loss of low-yield real estate with the income of personal real estate investment, and finally get a more average income. The key of real estate portfolio is how to scientifically determine the reasonable proportion of funds invested in different types of real estate.
III. Overall situation and changing trend of real estate investment risks in China.
In recent years, with the gradual transition of China's economic system and the introduction of a series of national macroeconomic policies, the risk of real estate investment has generally changed as follows.
1, reducing economic risks and increasing technical content.
The economic risk of real estate investment refers to the risk brought by a series of uncertain factors related to economic development. With the development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of the overall economic environment, the economic risks of real estate investment will be reduced. First of all, economic development has increased children's income and improved their purchasing power. The characteristic is that after China's entry into WTO, its economic strength will leap forward, and the demand of ordinary residents to improve their living environment will be very urgent. In addition, the influx of overseas personnel and institutions has created a more favorable economic environment for China's real estate industry. At the same time, the deposit and loan interest rates were lowered, the forms of mortgage loans were diversified, and the term was relaxed. Otherwise, it will stimulate demand and reduce financing costs. The technical risk of real estate investment is mainly manifested in the developer's mastery of room design, functional requirements and intelligent technical content. With the deepening of China's real estate marketization, real estate development will face diversified consumer groups, which requires real estate development enterprises to have strong technical strength, be able to master advanced industry technology in time, and accurately judge the requirements of the current real estate market at different levels for science and technology, so as to meet more stringent and changeable consumer demand in time. The policy risk of real estate investment mainly refers to the policy behavior of China real estate market, especially the policy "rescue" behavior demanded by some real estate investors at this stage. The essence of this behavior is to increase the policy risk of real estate investors who are still in good operating conditions, which is not conducive to the "survival of the fittest" in the real estate market.
2. Investment risk signals are increasingly abundant.
At present, China's monthly economic prosperity analysis report has become an important reference for China's current economic situation and real estate investment decision. At the same time, the introduction of China Housing Index is helpful for real estate investors to directly understand the differences between cities under the current real estate development situation, and is conducive to the implementation of risk-averse decision-making of spatial combination; The establishment of real estate trading centers around the country has reduced the private transactions of real estate, and also improved the authenticity and accuracy of real estate market signals, making the measurement and control of real estate investment risks gradually feasible. The incisive analysis and prediction of industry experts also provide a multi-channel scientific judgment basis for real estate development. All these have laid a good foundation for developers to invest in the real estate market.
3. Reduce the regional differences of real estate investment risks.
The narrowing of regional differences in real estate investment risks mainly refers to the adjustment of the central and eastern regions, the recovery of the central region and the start of the western region in the development of China's real estate industry. The reasons are as follows: (1) In the past few years, the real estate development fever in China was mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas, and vacant buildings were also mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas. Compared with the eastern coastal areas, the development of the real estate market in the central and western regions is relatively backward, the vacancy rate of commercial housing is relatively low, and the time for digestion and adjustment is shorter than that in the east. (2) The catch-up phenomenon in the central and western regions caused by the implementation of the western development strategy and the "flying geese principle" of economic development began to appear. The return on investment in the central and western regions is not lower than that in the eastern region, and even some industries are higher than that in the eastern region. Therefore, the narrowing of the economic gap between the central and western regions and the eastern region will lead to the narrowing of the real estate development gap. (3) With the introduction of housing industry as a new economic growth point policy and the approach of China's formal accession to the WTO, China will further narrow the differences in real estate policies between regions and gradually implement a fully convenient multi-level opening policy, thus gradually diluting the regional risks of real estate investment.