Russia is undoubtedly a world power, and the United States does not want to see the development and rise of such a country as the successor of the former Soviet Union. Putin's coming to power and the abnormal diving of oil prices are all like silent smoke, indicating the degree of confrontation. The fundamental reason is a series of adverse reactions caused by geopolitics promoted by NATO led by the United States after World War II. At present, the whole world is paying close attention to the Ukrainian issue. Whether an agreement can be reached on this issue will have an immeasurable impact on US-Russian relations.
Keywords geopolitics; NATO; Ukraine
I. Tensions between Russia and the United States
Russia has an extraordinary factor of world power. Its symbol is that it has a nuclear arsenal comparable to that of the United States, about 22% of the world's rich resources (only a quarter of the world's fresh water in Lake Baikal) and the world's first territory. Such a big country, especially regarded as the successor country after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, poses an obvious threat to the United States, which has the role of "world policeman" and hegemonic complex.
Putin's words and deeds often shock and disgust the United States. For example, the article "Russia at the turn of the century" clearly stated at the beginning of his tenure that he would not take the road of Europe and the United States; Then he shouted "Give me twenty years and give you back a powerful Russia", and then pointed out that the disintegration of the Soviet Union was the biggest geopolitical tragedy in the 20th century. The United States and some western powers will definitely put Putin on the ground and then quickly.
20 14, 12, 1 1, the unit price of oil in the international market fell below $60, and the exchange rate of ruble against the US dollar fell by 40% since the beginning of the year. The benchmark oil price estimated by the Russian government when determining the budget for 20 14 is $93. Russia suspects that this is a conspiracy of the United States and some Middle Eastern countries-increasing production and lowering prices, and the appreciation of the US dollar will hit the Russian economy, just as Reagan conspired with Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices in order to bring down the Soviet Union.
Second, the source of tension.
US-Russian relations cannot be discussed without a key word-NATO. As we all know, although NATO may no longer be the only statement of the United States, its position in the organization is still very important. The tension between the United States and Russia can be traced back to history. The fundamental reason lies in Europe's strategic interests and strange bedfellows's consideration after the Cold War.
The United States, Europe and Russia have very different ideas about the significance of the end of the Cold War and the post-war pattern. The end of the Cold War is not a "defeated country" in the sense of international law, but both the United States and Europe regard the end of the Cold War as a victory of "defeating autocracy by peaceful means" and have the mentality of treating Russia, the successor of the Soviet Union, as a "loser". Although Russia's internal and external policies and influence are quite different from those of the Soviet Union, NATO regards "* * * share the same values" as the basis for establishing its alliance and the standard for judging its relations with other countries. It doesn't fully agree with Russia, but regards it as an object that can be reformed at most. When talking about the principle of handling relations with Russia after the Cold War, Solana said that he would "help Russia find a suitable position in the new European framework", which seemed to release his goodwill towards Russia. However, the consciousness of "I am the master and you are the slave" and the intention of supervising and regulating Russia are obvious.
Moreover, although Russia's territory and strength have been greatly reduced, its inherent will for independent development has been enhanced in the post-cold war period, and it has not lost its pursuit of great power status. After the establishment of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Russia is committed to developing the Eurasian cooperation mechanism to maintain its traditional influence and has a special right to speak on international hot issues such as the Middle East. It is bent on developing a nuclear arsenal deterrent force that can compete with the United States and does not obey the instructions and arrangements of the West for its political orientation. This greatly violates the western assumption of Russia's status after the Cold War, and the competitive factors in the relationship between the two sides are higher than the possibility of cooperation. It is difficult for NATO and Russia to have real lasting mutual trust and respect, and there is a high probability that differences will turn into contradictions and disputes.
Third, geopolitics.
After the end of the Cold War, most Central and Eastern European countries intended to "return to Europe" and demanded to approach and join NATO and the European Union, opening up a development path different from that of the Cold War. According to this, NATO declared that "the eastward expansion is to respond to the requirements of countries applying for membership", but suppressing Russian strategic forces is also a fundamental purpose of NATO's eastward expansion. In fact, NATO is well aware of the impact of eastward expansion on Russia and its struggle.
At the same time, it is even more difficult to justify that NATO's eastward expansion is only to meet the wishes of the applicant countries and has no other purpose. Recently, the tough measures taken by the United States and Europe against Russia around the Ukrainian crisis have not been fully recognized by some new NATO members, indicating that although these countries are willing to join NATO, they have no intention of using NATO to contain Russia. After the Cold War, Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary, the three earliest NATO countries, were once regarded as models of camp change, but now the Czech Republic and Hungary have kept a distance from NATO in their tough stance on Russia. Czech President Zeman insisted on going to Russia to participate in physiological activities to commemorate World War II, which broke the intention of the West to act in concert to isolate and attack Russia. The American ambassador to the Czech Republic accused him unreasonably and rudely. Zeman retorted that the relationship between the two countries once set off a storm. This shows that NATO does not fully respect the wishes of new members unless they unconditionally agree to boycott Russia.
Fourth, strive for Ukraine.
Ukraine and Georgia are regarded by Russia as the last protective wall against NATO, so they are protected as much as possible. NATO will never stop until the wall is torn down, and the two sides will work together. NATO has listed Ukraine and Georgia as key development targets and made every effort to win them over. Take the relationship with Ukraine as an example. As early as June 5438+July 0997, when NATO expanded its membership for the first time after the Cold War, it set its sights on Ukraine, which was of greater strategic significance to Russia. When establishing relations with Ukraine, NATO signed a high-profile "Charter of Special Partnership", which gave this cooperation a unique meaning. 1in April 1999, NATO and Ukraine held their first summit meeting, issued a joint statement, announced their all-round cooperation and Ukraine's determination to "join the Euro-Atlantic structure", and established permanent cooperation mechanisms such as the NATO-Ukraine Committee. In the name of helping Ukraine reform, NATO has tried its best to win over Ukraine.
2013165438+12 October, then Ukrainian president Yanukovych decided to suspend the signing of the associated country agreement with the European union. Although this move takes into account Russia's requirements, it is far from its long-standing policy of keeping a balance between approaching the EU and maintaining cooperation with Russia. Foreign forces that had already infiltrated Ukraine manipulated domestic pro-western forces to launch fierce protests, and Yanukovych's regime was quickly overthrown by square violence. American senior officials unscrupulously directly intervened in the formation of the new Ukrainian regime and vigorously promoted Ukraine's political development against Russia's westward advancement. Russia will not allow Ukraine, which has great strategic significance, to be marginalized by the West. It has also taken major measures such as supporting eastern Ukraine to rebel against the authorities and recovering Crimea. After the Cold War, the first comprehensive political, military and economic confrontation broke out between the United States, Europe and Russia.