I once heard that a professional real estate commentator asked a friend privately: Do you think this house price will go up or down? Sounds funny. You are an expert. If you don't know, who knows? Actually, this is normal. The economic forecast is sad, and the weather forecast is well known. Looking through the literature on economic forecasting in previous years, how many forecasts are close? If experts are forced to predict, it is meaningful to grasp only a few major influencing factors and make a general statement. It takes courage to predict an accurate percentage. Predicting house prices is particularly difficult. Inflation factors, technical factors, social psychological changes and changes in government regulation policies will all affect housing prices, and these factors are not easy to grasp.
However, whether the real housing price is high or low, there are two factors worthy of attention. 1. Compared with social conditions, what is the ratio of average house price to average income? Second, which opportunity cost is greater, buying a house or renting a house? If the first factor is difficult to grasp, then the second factor is relatively easy to grasp. Judging from these two factors, the overall housing prices in China are still relatively high. The average price of a decorated house in Beijing 1.20 square meters is about 850,000, which is 1.7 times the average household income. This height is also rare in the world. House prices in many cities are often dozens of times the annual rent of houses. For example, the annual rent of a house is 6,000 yuan, but the house price may be 300,000 yuan, a difference of 50 times. This shows that the opportunity cost of buying a house is higher than that of renting a house, and it also proves that the price of the house is high.
The real market price is reasonable, because it is conducive to the optimal allocation of resources. You can't say that the house price is low just because you sell a house, nor can you say that the house price is high just because you buy a house. This is just a general statement. There are many factors that determine the balance between supply and demand. If some factors are added to form a balanced price that meets the long-term profiteering needs of real estate developers, or meets the wishes of buyers to form a balanced price that makes real estate developers lose money for a long time, then this balanced price is considered as "market failure" or "government failure" because government policies may inappropriately affect market supply and demand.
China's social security system is not perfect, and there are great uncertainties in people's social life, such as worries about providing for the aged, devaluing and the future fate of their children. In this social condition, people will take some investment ways to reduce the risk of life, and the more reliable way is to buy real estate. Therefore, the ownership price of real estate is often high, while the right to use real estate may be low. In many cities in China, considering the management cost of renting a house, this multiple is even higher. This shows that social factors have entered the house price; People pay for the existence of social risks. Our people worry too much, and the important way to relieve their worries is to tighten their belts and buy a house. Once they enter the real estate market, house prices will rise, which will make them want to buy houses more and more. This is not the people's fault!
Many people predict that house prices will rise, and real estate developers are more willing to say so. Their main reason is that the population is growing, but the land resources are not growing. This reason is a bit specious. Japanese, Hongkong and Taiwan Province provinces all had periods of rising real estate prices, but later they also had periods of falling. The newly designated urban planning area in China is actually very large. At the peak of enclosure, the area of development zones designated by the whole country even exceeds the area of existing urban built-up areas. Later, after rectification, most development zones were cancelled, and only a few were really restored to farmland. Another factor is vacant houses in rural areas. Now real estate developers are playing this idea, and many construction land will be "replaced" by some methods, resulting in an increase in land supply. On the other hand, the population growth rate in China is close to the replacement level, and the birth rate in some cities has dropped significantly. If mechanical migration is not considered, the population of many cities is negative. The migration of rural population to cities is a land-saving migration. The average homestead of rural farmers is more than 0.5 mu, and the residential land has been greatly reduced after entering the city. If the national policy is perfect, a considerable number of rural farmers' homesteads can be replaced, which will also lead to an increase in land supply. According to this truth, there are indeed hidden factors in our economic life to curb the rise in housing prices, although these factors need the support of government policies to exert their influence.
Please adopt it.