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A Summary of Population Aging Research in China
I. Introduction
At first, people cared about the population of China mainly because of its number, because China is the most populous country in the world. The rapid population growth has brought great pressure to the social and economic development of China, which has affected the speed of social and economic development and hindered the improvement of people's living standards. Therefore, to some extent, China's population policy emphasizes population control in the actual operation process. This prejudice is understandable, because even though China's total fertility rate has dropped to replacement level today, China still faces enormous population pressure due to its huge population base and the inertia of population development. However, when people are discussing how to control the population of China, they are worried about the social and economic impact of the annual increase of100000 people on China, the age structure of China's population is also quietly aging. This makes China face another challenge: the aging population.
China is not only the country with the largest population in the world, but also the country with the largest elderly population. By the end of 1998, China's total population had reached124.8 billion, and the elderly aged 60 and above accounted for about 9.7% of the total population. Compared with other aging countries, China's population aging has two prominent characteristics: first, the speed of population aging and the absolute number of elderly people increase rapidly; Second, the aging population appears before the level of economic development. According to the data of the fourth population census and the medium-term plan, the population of China is predicted. The results show that the age structure of China population is rapidly aging, and the age structure is changing from adulthood to old age, but the aging speed in different periods is very different. The process of population aging in China can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage is 1990 ~ 2000, and the population of China changes from adulthood to old age; The second stage is from 2000 to 2020, and China will become a typical aging country. The third stage is from 2020 to 2050, which will be a serious stage of population aging in China. What is worrying is that while China's population is aging, the elderly population is also aging. According to the demographer's prediction, the average annual growth rate of the elderly population in the first half of the next century will be 5 1‰, while the average annual growth rate of the elderly population over 65 will be 29‰, and the average annual growth rate of the total population may only reach its peak at 7‰. There is no doubt that the elderly are the fastest growing population, and the key and difficult point of aging work lies in the elderly, because most of the elderly aged 60-70 still have the ability to take care of themselves, while the elderly over 80 need care most, and the probability of living with illness or even bedridden is the highest. The huge "middle-aged" and "elderly" population will undoubtedly bring a heavy burden to families and society.
If we examine the aging of population age structure in different regions, this problem is even more urgent. The overall pattern of population aging in China is that rural areas are faster than urban areas, Han areas are faster than ethnic minority areas, and eastern areas are faster than central and western regions. By the end of 1998, the proportion of the elderly population aged 60 and above in nearly half of the provinces and autonomous regions exceeded or approached 10% of the total population of the whole region, taking the lead in becoming the first batch of elderly provinces and autonomous regions in China. Judging from the regional differences of population aging in China, the population aging in China has been developing from east to west, and the speed will be faster and faster. In the near future, this "grey wave" will sweep across the country. From this perspective, the population of China did not suddenly become an elderly population until around 2000, and the problem of the elderly population did not suddenly become serious until some day in the next century. Population aging itself is a dynamic process, and its impact on social economy is also dynamic. As far as the overall situation of China is concerned, the social and economic impact of population aging is not obvious, but as far as the situation in some areas is concerned, the situation is already quite grim. For example, from 65438 to 0993, the population of Shanghai began to grow negatively. At present, the most important population problem in Shanghai is not the fertility level, but people are more concerned about the population structure, especially the aging population.
Just as people care about the population, the reason why people care about the aging of the population age structure comes from the concern about the relationship between population and development. Before the Second World War, people mainly considered the relationship between the change and development of the total population, but paid insufficient attention to the relationship between the change and development of the population structure, especially the age structure. After the Second World War, with the rapid development of science and technology and the appearance of population aging, people gradually realized that the change of population age structure has a greater impact on development than the change of total population, because the aging of population age structure, like population growth, will have a great impact on the whole social and economic development, and the impact of this change on social and economic development is far more complicated than that of population growth. If we only look at the relationship between the total population and social and economic development, we actually regard all people of different ages as "homogeneous" people with the same characteristics, and such an investigation method will erase the different social and economic significance of people of different ages. In fact, people of different ages have different socio-economic characteristics and are "heterogeneous" people. At present, there are about 654.38+0.2 billion elderly people and 320 million minors in China. From the quantitative point of view, it is clear at a glance which is the burden of the elderly and minors who are both consumers. However, if we consider the different socio-economic characteristics of these two different age groups, we will find that the relationship between the elderly population and the minor population is not simple 1:3, and it is not necessarily easier for China to support the current 1 100 million elderly population than to support the 300 million minor population. Therefore, it is a more in-depth study to investigate the relationship between age structure change and socio-economic development, which will enable us to grasp the relationship between population change and socio-economic development more accurately. The fact that the age structure of population in the world and China is aging requires demography, economics and sociology to analyze and study the causes, process, characteristics and socio-economic consequences of population aging, and to seek countermeasures to solve the consequences of population aging on the basis of solid theoretical research. A great deal of research on population aging abroad began after the Second World War. From 65438 to 0956, Population Aging and Its Socio-economic Consequences published by the United Nations summarized the previous research results on population aging, which marked that the research on population aging entered a new period. Since then, due to the increasingly serious problem of population aging in western countries, coupled with the development of population theory and the progress of research methods, the research on population aging has been deepened and the literature on population aging has been enriched. Compared with the research on population aging abroad, the research in this field in China started late, mainly because the revival of demographic research in China began in the late 1970s, when the age structure of China's population had just entered the adult type, and the focus of people's attention was not on population aging, that is, population aging was not a priority topic in the field of demography. Only with the in-depth development of China's demographic research and the objective fact that the speed of population aging is accelerating, more and more scholars begin to pay attention to the problem of population aging.
In recent years, many departments and institutions in China have done some research on the problem of population aging and accumulated some documents and data. However, when we carefully review these data and documents, we will find that the current research on population aging in China mainly focuses on the demographic and sociological effects of population aging, that is to say, there are many discussions on the current situation, characteristics, causes and processes of population aging in China, as well as the demographic and sociological consequences of population aging. But the weakness is that there are many descriptions of the actual situation and few theoretical innovations.
With the inevitable objective reality of aging population structure in China, it is urgent to study the relationship between aging population and social and economic development. A clear understanding of this relationship is of great significance for formulating the social and economic development strategy of China in the next century. For China, which is in the construction stage of socialist market economy, it is very important to correctly understand the causes, movement process, development trend and socio-economic consequences of population aging in China. When China formulates its industrial policy, distribution policy, exchange policy, consumption policy and social security policy for the next century, it must take into account the objective fact of China's aging population in the future. Only in this way can China's social economy develop comprehensively, stably, harmoniously and healthily.
Second, the definition of several basic concepts
(a) the age limit for the elderly, minors and adults
"Old people" refers to people who have reached or exceeded the age limit for the elderly. The key here lies in the age limit of the elderly, because determining this limit is the premise of counting the elderly population. In different periods, different countries or regions, the definition of the age limit for the elderly is different. 1900, Sambad divided the population into different types according to age in his book Population Age Classification and Mortality Study. In fact, he regards 50 as the lower limit of old age; 1956, the United Nations published Population Aging and Its Social and Economic Consequences, and defined 65 as the lower limit of old age. The World Conference on Ageing held in Vienna from 65438 to 0982 set the age limit for the elderly at 60. The reason why the international community changed the age limit of the elderly from 65 years old in 1956 to 60 years old was because the report published by the United Nations in 1956 was mainly aimed at the problem of population aging in developed countries, but at that time, the developing countries could not talk about the problem of population aging, and the definition of 65 years old as the age limit of the elderly was based on the average life expectancy of developed countries at that time. By the early 1980s, population aging was not only a problem in developed countries, but also in developing countries, where the average life expectancy was much lower than that in developed countries. Therefore, considering the average life expectancy in the world, the limit of old age is defined as 60 years old. With the development of social and economic level and the continuous extension of people's life expectancy, the standard of old age should be constantly changing. Generally speaking, the starting point of old age in developed countries should be higher than that in developing countries. China is a developing country. Although the average life expectancy is higher than that of developing countries, it is still far lower than that of developed countries. Therefore, it is a reasonable choice to take 60 years as the limit of old age in China.
Different periods, different countries or regions have different age limits for minors, ranging from 15 to 20 years old. Generally speaking, the age limit for minors in developed countries is higher than that in developing countries. In the world, 15 years old is generally defined as the dividing line of minors, that is, people aged 0 ~ 14 are minors. Given the age limits of the elderly and minors, we can easily determine the age limit of adults, that is, the age limit of adults is 15 ~ 59 years old.
(2) Divide the age structure of the population into young people, adults and the elderly.
Just like the definition of the age boundaries of the elderly, minors and adults, the classification of the age structure types of the population also varies from place to place. From 65438 to 0956, in Population Aging and Its Socio-economic Consequences published by the United Nations, the types of population age structure were classified as follows:
Young people aged 65 and over.
The proportion of the elderly population is less than 4%, 4% ~ 7%, and more than 7%.
Then, with the further aging of the world population, especially in developed countries, some new methods of division have been put forward abroad. For example, 1975 can be divided into the following ways:
Age structure type: young type, adult type, old type, 0 ~ 14 years old population: above 40%, below 30% ~ 40%, below 30%.
The population aged 65 and above is less than 5% and 5% ~ 10% and 10% and above.
The ratio of old people to young people is below 15% and above 15% ~ 30%.
The median age is under 20 years old, 20 ~ 30 years old and over 30 years old.
After the World Assembly on Ageing held in Vienna from 65438 to 0982 set the age limit for the elderly at 60, countries adopted the following classification methods:
Young and middle-aged elderly type
60 years old and 60 years old
The proportion of the elderly population is less than 5%, 5- 10% and 10%.
It is subjective, not objective, to divide the age structure of the population into young people, adults and old people. With the development of social and economic level and the continuous extension of people's life expectancy, especially with the constant change of the age standard of the elderly, the division of population age structure types should also change accordingly. Generally speaking, the definition of the elderly population is that the proportion of the elderly population aged 60 and above is above 10%, or the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above is above 7%.
(3) population aging and population aging
For the population of a country or region, the age structure of the population is constantly changing due to the birth, death and migration of the population, that is, the proportion of minors, adults and the elderly in the total population is constantly changing. In the total population, if the proportion of the elderly population is increasing while the proportion of other age groups is decreasing, we call this dynamic process population aging; On the other hand, if the proportion of the elderly population is declining and the proportion of other age groups is rising, we call this dynamic process population rejuvenation. For a country or region, the population may be aging or younger, and the aging and younger population are reversible; It is irreversible for an individual to enter the aging process from birth. The problem of population aging refers to the social and economic adjustment brought about by the dynamic process of increasing the proportion of the elderly population and decreasing the proportion of other age groups in the total population. Because the population of all ages is changing in the process of population aging, the problem of population aging has not only the adaptation problems brought by the elderly population, but also the adaptation problems brought by adults and minors. The problem of the elderly population refers to the problems brought by this special group of the elderly population. No matter whether the population is aging or younger in a country or region, there will be the problem of the elderly population, that is, the problem of the elderly population does not necessarily exist, but it does exist.
Thirdly, the main viewpoints of population aging research are summarized.
The early research on population aging abroad is mostly about the characteristics of the elderly population, mainly to answer the practical problems faced by the elderly population. However, the study of practical problems cannot be separated from some basic theoretical assumptions. Different scholars have put forward different theoretical assumptions under certain conditions, which have evolved and developed for later generations, thus forming some theories of population aging. A great deal of research on population aging abroad began after the Second World War. From 65438 to 0956, Population Aging and Its Socio-economic Consequences published by the United Nations summarized the previous research results on population aging, which marked that the research on population aging entered a new period. Since then, due to the increasingly serious problem of population aging in western countries, coupled with the development of population theory and the progress of research methods, the research on population aging has been deepened and the literature on population aging has been enriched. From 65438 to 0969, at the 24th Congress, Malta took the lead in raising the issue of aging, calling on the international community and governments to pay attention to the rapid growth trend of the elderly population and some problems that followed.
The study of population aging abroad and the experience of aging cause provide reference for the study of population aging in China. However, China's population has its particularity, and the background of China's population aging is different from other developing countries, even more different from developed countries. Therefore, although foreign experience can be used for reference, it is difficult to adapt to China's national conditions. Our problems should be solved by ourselves, and the scientific research of population aging in China should be explored by ourselves.
From 65438 to 0982, the World Congress on Ageing held in Vienna kicked off the cause of aging in China. With the in-depth development of China's demographic research and the objective fact that the speed of population aging is increasing rapidly, more and more scholars begin to care about the problem of population aging. In recent years, relevant departments and institutions in China have done some research on the problem of population aging and accumulated some documents and data. Among them, the representative works are China's Elderly Population Research edited by Peking University Population Institute, China's Elderly Population edited by Tian Xueyuan of China Academy of Social Sciences, China's Elderly Population Economy, China's Elderly Population Society, China's Elderly Population Research edited by Qu Haibo of Jilin University's Population Research Institute, and Population Aging and Elderly Population Research edited by Xu of Wuhan University's Population Research Institute. Gerontology and aging, edited by Xiong Bijun, Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Du Peng, Renmin University of China; Yu Xuejun, China Population Information Research Center; Economics of aging in China; Wang Aizhu of Fudan University; A Sample Survey of the Elderly in Nine Cities of China from 65438 to 0988 by Tianjin Scholars: The Reform of Rural Endowment Insurance System in Shanghai by Shanghai Scholars. These works have made a comprehensive study on the problem of population aging in China from different angles. In addition, a large number of relevant survey data provide an accurate basis for the study of population aging, such as "Sampling survey data of elderly people over 60 in China" organized by China Social Science Population Organization 1987, and "Survey data of support system for the elderly in China" organized by China Aging Science Research Center 1992. These documents and data have laid a good foundation for further study of population aging in China.
Prediction of population aging trend in China in the first half of the next century
The theory and practice of population aging prove that the speed and degree of population aging mainly depend on the fertility level and death level of population, but in different stages of population aging, the influence of fertility level and death level on population aging is different. In the early stage of population aging, fertility level plays a leading role; In the later period of population aging, the death level plays a leading role. In any case, fertility level and death level are the two most important parameters for population prediction. Based on the declining trend of fertility level in China in 1970s and 1980s, people generally tend to be optimistic that the fertility level in China will decline rapidly when making population forecasts. It is predicted that by the year 2000, the total fertility rate in China will drop to 65,438 0.8 or even 65,438 0.5. The parameter assumption of a very common prediction scheme is that the total fertility rate will be from 2.63 of 198 1 to 1.8 in 2000, and then remain unchanged until 2050; The average life expectancy at birth has increased from 67.88 years in 198 1 year to 80.20 years in 2050. In fact, in recent years, China's fertility rate did not continue to drop sharply along the trend in the late 1970s, but fluctuated in the 1980s. The total fertility rate in China dropped to a low level of 2.24 in 1980, and then rose to a high level of 2.86 in 1982. 1985 fell to 2.20 again, and 1987 rose to 2.59 again; Since 1987, the total fertility rate has dropped rapidly. The results of the "380,000 population sampling survey" conducted by the Planning Department of the National Family Planning Commission in June, 5438+0992+00 are controversial at home and abroad. Most people think that this result is low, while a few people think that the actual result may be lower. People have different views on the current total fertility rate, ranging from 1.3 to 2.3. Therefore, both academic circles and practical departments are at a loss, which has caused some difficulties in population planning and socio-economic development planning, and also caused confusion in academic circles.