How to invest in the bond market in 2023? Foreign public offerings have something to say.

In recent months, wholly foreign-owned public offerings are pouring into China, and the product layout is also expanding. In addition to stock investment, they also have their own unique analytical perspective on bond investment in the coming year.

Some institutions believe that although the bond market in China fluctuated at the end of 2022, bond funds, as a fund with small overall fluctuation, good risk hedging ability and excellent liquidity, can still play the role of "cornerstone" in investors' asset portfolio, and price fluctuations unrelated to fundamentals even gave birth to some investment opportunities. Some institutions also predict that the bond market may still fluctuate this year, but the volatility will be smaller than last year. Investors can use some contrarian trading strategies to enhance their income.

BlackRock Fund: Bond funds are still the "cornerstone" assets.

At the end of 2022, the China bond market fluctuated greatly, which made many investors with low risk preference question the investment value of fixed-income products. In this regard, Liu Xin, director of fixed income investment of BlackRock Fund, believes that from the perspective of institutions and individual investors, fixed income funds are still worthy of allocation, but at the same time, the fluctuating bond market also puts forward higher standards for the active investment ability and risk management of funds.

Specifically, for most institutional investors, because their liabilities have certain requirements on the rate of return and risk, at the current valuation level, institutions will show a certain tendency in the allocation of bond assets.

For individual investors, he believes that bond funds can still be the "cornerstone" assets in investors' asset allocation. First of all, the volatility of debt base is still in a low category in the overall fund; Secondly, bond funds can generally give a better hedging effect during the risk period. Moreover, bond funds actually meet the needs of individual investors for short-and medium-term funds.

When talking about the impact of bond market volatility at the end of 2022, Liu Xin is more optimistic. He said that this fluctuation started from 1 1 in early 2022, and most of it was driven by the technical aspects of wealth management funds. Among them, some price fluctuations unrelated to fundamentals will bring staged investment opportunities.

Liu Xin told China, the brokerage firm, that they were generally cautious about 2023. He believes that the rhythm of China's fiscal policy is crucial to the direction of the bond market next year. In his view, what needs attention at this stage is the signal of economic recovery and real estate support after optimization of prevention and control. In his view, in the short term 1-2 months, the bond market will pay more attention to the recovery of risk appetite, the expectation of returning to work after the peak of the epidemic and the technical financial drag. Financially, in 2022, the expenditure was higher and the income was lower, and further financial efforts were restrained. However, considering that unconventional tools such as policy finance were introduced in 2022 to cooperate with fiscal efforts, there may still be room for fiscal policy in 2023.

Invest in Morgan Fund: This year's bond market may still be a volatile market, and the volatility is smaller than last year.

65438+1October 19 The equity change of Shanghai Morgan Fund was approved by China Securities Regulatory Commission, which officially became the sixth wholly foreign-owned public offering in China and the first public offering institution with joint venture converted into wholly foreign-owned in the New Year. As a new member of wholly foreign-owned public offering, how does Shanghai Shangtou Morgan Fund view the bond market in the new year?

Liu, deputy general manager and director of bond investment of Shanghai Morgan Fund, said that overall, the bond market in 2023 is likely to show a shock market similar to last year, but the fluctuation range may be smaller than last year. Liu suggested that investors can use some contrarian trading strategies to further improve their returns.

Looking forward to the bond market in 2023, he believes that we can focus on three major aspects. First, the development path of the epidemic situation. Second, how to change the driving force of the national economy. He believes that the driving force of the economy may shift from external demand to domestic demand. Third, the balance between growth policy and structural policy, such as whether the previous monetary policy and fiscal policy have withdrawn to a certain extent after the economy has obviously rebounded.

In terms of interest rate bonds, Wen Xueting, a macro researcher at Morgan Stanley, is more optimistic about the first quarter. She believes that in the first half of this year, due to the expiration of a large number of accounts using amortized cost method, it may open the demand for reconfiguration, or it will benefit the three-year CDB. After entering the second quarter, she suggested being relatively cautious about the duration strategy. Based on the judgment of the overall economic fundamentals and social integration data, she believes that the high probability of interest rate bonds this year is still a volatile market, and the upward rate of interest rates may not be too large. If the interest rate rises to a certain extent, it is a good opportunity to allocate interest rate bonds.

Regarding credit bonds, Ren Xiang, the fund manager and director of Morgan Stanley's fixed income research department, believes that after the adjustment of credit bonds at the end of 2022, the credit spread has greatly expanded, and the allocation value of credit quality has greatly improved compared with the previous period. "Although we expect that the credit spread center in 2023 may rise with the recovery of interest rates, the current coupon protection has been greatly improved compared with the previous period. Given that fundamentals and short-term credit risk appetite have not recovered significantly, we will remain cautious. " He said.

Specifically, in terms of urban investment bonds, Ren Xiang thinks that the default probability of urban investment bonds in 2023 may not be high, but some urban investment bonds with weak qualifications need to be treated with caution, beware of tail risks, and the overall investment orientation should still focus on risk control. In terms of real estate debt, with the gradual introduction and implementation of policies, the state and central enterprises may take the lead in stabilizing; If the fundamental improvement is confirmed, the refinancing of some leading private enterprises in the bond market will have the opportunity to gradually recover, or may bring possible investment opportunities.

In terms of industrial liabilities, in 2022, the steel industry was affected by the decline in real estate investment, and its profits fell significantly. Credit spreads are wider than those in other industries, so we still need to pay attention to valuation fluctuations caused by falling profits. In the medium and long term, we can expect some real estate investment recovery and demand repair. Specifically, in terms of coal, it is expected that the domestic coal market will maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in 2023, and the risk exposure of some low-grade issuers should be controlled. It is suggested to pay attention to some influences on valuation; In terms of finance, after the recent adjustment of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds of commercial banks, it has been greatly improved compared with credit bonds. It is suggested to pay attention to the trading opportunities after overshooting and the investment opportunities of new varieties.

Editor: tactical constancy

Proofreading: Gao Yuan