Keywords: China; Economic development; Late-comer advantage; Labor-intensive; Industry and technology
1. Since the reform and opening up, China's economic development has attracted worldwide attention.
After more than 30 years of rapid development, the economic scale of China has increased by 20.5 times, and the per capita income of 20 10 has reached US$ 4,370, which has crossed the threshold of high school and other income countries and is about four times that of sub-Saharan African countries. At the same time, China has become the "factory of the world", the largest exporter and the second largest economy in the world. People's living standards have really improved a lot, and I personally have a lot of personal experience. 1987 back from Chicago. At that time, the country had many preferential policies to attract talents returning from overseas. According to the preferential policy, I can bring back the "eight big pieces" duty-free. What are the contents of the "Eight Big Pieces"? Television, refrigerator, washing machine (things that were in short supply in China at that time), I brought a water heater and four electric fans, because there are four people in my family, one for each. At that time, I couldn't imagine that every room had such air conditioning. In recent years, not only the quality of life of people in cities has improved a lot, but also the living standards of people in the whole country, including rural areas. According to purchasing power parity, the poverty line of the World Bank is 1 USD per day. By this standard, 600 million people in China have been lifted out of poverty in the past 30 years. This is of great significance, because the United Nations has a Millennium Development Goal, and its first goal is to reduce the number of poor people in the world by half in 20 15 compared with 1990. In fact, only China achieved this goal of the United Nations several years ago.
China has made great achievements in the reform and opening-up, not only contributing to the improvement of people's living standards in China, but also to the world economy.
The most obvious example is the East Asian financial crisis of 1998. At that time, it was generally believed that it would take at least a decade or two for the East Asian economy to recover. The China government has implemented the policy of not devaluing the RMB, which has avoided the competitive devaluation of the surrounding economies. After the impact of the financial crisis, domestic demand and external demand must be started for economic recovery. The economy of East Asia is generally export-oriented, and its products compete with those of China in the international market. In order to recover under the impact of the crisis, it is necessary to increase domestic demand, but it is more important for them to increase external demand. If the RMB depreciates and China products enhance their export competitiveness, they will occupy their market. In order to improve their competitiveness, they may depreciate one after another, leading to the so-called competitive devaluation and aggravating economic turmoil, which is not good for everyone. As a responsible country, China did not devalue the RMB, thus avoiding the adverse consequences of competitive devaluation. At the same time, from 1998 to 2002, China maintained the highest economic growth rate of 8% in the world at that time, which stimulated the economic recovery in East Asia. The East Asian economy recovered to the pre-crisis level two years after the crisis, and the greatest contribution was the rapid economic growth of China and the policy of not devaluing RMB.
Another example is the global financial (economic) crisis that began in 2008. This is the biggest impact since 1929 new york stock market crash triggered the Great Depression of the whole world economy. China government quickly adopted a positive fiscal stimulus policy of 4 trillion yuan, which enabled China's economy to recover in the first quarter of 2009 and maintained a growth rate of 9%~ 10%. China's economy has also become the most important driving force for this global economic recovery, which is also a contribution to people all over the world.
All these achievements are unexpected, because since 1980s, foreign media and academic circles have been predicting when China's economy will collapse. Although by the end of 1990s, China's economy had been growing at a high speed for 20 years, until 200 1, there was a very popular book called On the Collapse of China, which was placed in the most conspicuous position in foreign bookstores and airport bookstores. However, from 200/kloc-0 to the present, the economic growth rate of China has increased instead of falling: from 1978 to 2000, the average annual growth rate was 9.7%, while from 2000 to 20 10, it was 10.5%. In fact, Comrade Deng Xiaoping, the chief architect of the reform and opening-up, did not expect such achievements himself. In the early days of reform and opening up, his goal was to quadruple China's economy in 20 years. At that time, I was a graduate student at Peking University, and I wanted to know the average annual growth of quadrupling in 20 years. At that time, there was no computer, so we had to calculate by hand. It took me a whole afternoon to figure out that the average annual growth rate of quadrupling in 20 years is 7.2%. I think that is an impossible goal, because there is a "natural growth rate theory" in economics. With beautiful mathematical models and historical empirical experience, it is proved that no country can grow at an annual rate of more than 7% for a long time except for economic recovery after the war or natural disasters. At that time, I thought Comrade Deng Xiaoping was a very experienced politician, because there was an old saying in China: "Take the law and stop it; By the way, you will only get the next one. Therefore, if you set a higher goal, you can inspire the whole country to work hard for that goal, even if it is not 7%, it will be good to reach 5% or 6%. But now it is found that Comrade Deng Xiaoping is indeed a great politician, and his goal of 7.2% growth in 20 years has not only been achieved, but also exceeded. Not only did it last for 20 years, but now it has lasted for more than 30 years (with an average annual growth rate of 9.9%). Although the gap between 7.2% and 9.9% does not seem too big, after more than 30 years of accumulation, the gap is very large. If the annual growth rate is 7.2%, the ratio of 1978 will only increase by 9.2 times after 32 years, and now it will increase by 9.9% every year, and it will be 20.5 times after 32 years.
What I want to discuss is: Why has China's economy developed so fast after the reform and opening up? Why didn't China's economy achieve the same results before the reform and opening up? Why didn't other socialist countries and many developing countries achieve the same results after the 1980s? Compared with 1978, China has indeed made a lot of progress. The per capita income of the United States is 50,000 dollars, while that of China is only110, which is only 20% of purchasing power parity, so there is still a considerable gap compared with developed countries. Only by maintaining a high growth rate can we catch up with developed countries. So, how long can this high growth rate last?
About the author: Lin Yifu, a famous economist, senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank, honorary president, professor and doctoral supervisor of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, vice chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and academician of the Third World Academy of Sciences.
Second, why can China's economy develop continuously and rapidly?
Why has China's economy been growing at a rate of 9.9% for more than 30 years since 1978? High-speed growth is a new civilized phenomenon after18th century. Madison, a famous economic historian, believes that in the western world, before18th century, the average annual growth rate of per capita income was only 0.05%, that is, it was necessary to double per capita income 1400 years. It was actually a stagnant society at that time. At that time, a person's life span was only thirty or forty years old, and even if he lived to seventy or eighty years old, he could not see any economic development. After entering the19th century, the growth rate of per capita income suddenly increased by 20 times, from only 0.05% per year to 1% per year, which is an earth-shaking change. At this rate, the per capita income can be doubled in 70 years. That is to say, in the19th century, if a person is lucky enough to live to be 70 years old, on his deathbed, he can see that his income level has doubled compared with that of a child. After entering the 20th century, the growth rate of per capita income doubled again, from only 1% to 2% per year, so the time required to double per capita income was reduced to 35 years. By the 20th century, the average life expectancy in western countries can reach 70 years, which means that people's income can quadruple in their lifetime. From 1400 to 35 years, it is indeed an earth-shaking change. Why is there such a big change, and the speed of this change is still accelerating? The reason is that the industrial revolution appeared in the18th century, which accelerated the speed of technological invention, innovation and upgrading, and the industrial structure also changed from low value-added agriculture to high value-added manufacturing and service industries. Such technological innovation and industrial upgrading have improved labor productivity and become the material basis for increasing per capita income.
Technological change and industrial upgrading after the industrial revolution are the main driving forces for human society to enter modern civilization. China was ahead of the world before18th century, but in less than100th century, China became one of the poorest and backward countries in the world. The reason is not that China has regressed, but that other countries have made rapid progress. After the industrial revolution in the west, technological progress is changing with each passing day, and the economy is advancing by leaps and bounds. However, China is still stuck in the development mode of pre-modern society, and it will take hundreds or even thousands of years to double its economy, so it is backward.
But if technological innovation and industrial upgrading are the fundamental driving forces of modern economic development, then backward countries actually have advantages. What are these advantages? After the industrial revolution, the industry and technology of developed countries are in the forefront of the world, and their industrial upgrading and technological innovation must come from their own inventions. Invention requires a lot of investment, but the probability of success is very low. According to some research results, on average, 65,438+000 items were invested in the research and development of cutting-edge technologies, and only five technologies were able to pass the test and apply for patents. Among the patented technologies, there is actually only one that has real commercial value. In other words, if you invest 100, only one can really contribute to production and economic development. Of course, this patent can have a world market, and the return will be very high, but all the 99 patents have been beaten by Shui Piao, and there is no return. However, there is a gap between the technologies and industries adopted by developing countries and developed countries. This gap is a late-developing advantage in economics, because it is innovation that contributes to economic development. The so-called innovation means that the technology used in the next production stage is superior to the existing technology, the productivity is high, and the added value of the entered industry is higher than that of the existing industry. However, innovation is not necessarily the latest invention. If developing countries make good use of the advantages of backwardness, that is, adopt ready-made and mature technologies in the world that are better than what they are using now, the cost of innovation will be very low. Because many of these technologies have passed the patent protection period, even if they are still in the protection period, as long as they exceed 10 years, there is basically no need to pay patent fees. Using these technologies, not only the cost is low, but also the risk is small. If a developing country knows how to take advantage of its late-comer advantage, the cost and speed of innovation will be much faster than that of developed countries.
After World War II, a total of 13 economies (including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, China, Taiwan Province Province of China, China and Hong Kong, and several other countries and regions) made full use of their late-comer advantages and achieved economic growth of more than 7% per year, which lasted for more than 25 years. China became one of them only after the reform and opening up. The main reason why China can grow so fast after the reform and opening up is to make full use of the advantages of backwardness. However, the advantage of backwardness has always existed. Why did China achieve such success after the reform and opening up? This is related to the development strategy.
After the Opium War, China pursued national rejuvenation and overthrew the Manchu government. After the warlords' scuffle and the revolutionary civil war, War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression didn't realize until 1949, when New China was founded, that without military industry, there would be no defense industry, and without it, it would be beaten. Military industry is heavy industry. Therefore, the first five-year plan put forward the priority development of heavy industry from 1953. This goal is great, but there are some problems. First, at that time, heavy industry was the most advanced industry in the world, and the most advanced industries were generally protected by patents, so it was necessary to pay a high patent fee to use them. More importantly, those advanced industries are usually considered to be related to national defense and security. Even if you are willing to pay for them, people may not be willing to sell them. So you have to do research and development yourself, and the cost is at least as high as that of developed countries, because they have a better foundation. Second, these industries are not in line with China's comparative advantages. China was an agricultural society at that time, with relatively scarce capital, and the price of capital was relatively high according to the market. This advanced industry is capital-intensive, and the most important cost is the price of capital (capital). If it is in an open market, these enterprises cannot compete with the heavy industry enterprises in developed countries and have no viability. They need protection and subsidies from the state at low interest rates and low exchange rates to survive. And heavy industry needs large-scale capital investment. At that time, China was a backward agricultural economy country, and most of its production activities were in vast rural areas, with little surplus. Only the government can mobilize to invest in heavy industry through the scissors difference between workers and peasants. This development strategy has its achievements-building an atomic bomb in the 1960s and sending a satellite into the sky in the 1970s-but it has also paid a considerable price: the allocation of resources is seriously misplaced. It should be said that at that time, China had a large labor force and labor-intensive industries had comparative advantages, but it could not get development funds, which was also the reason why there was a large shortage of daily necessities for people's livelihood in the early 1970s and 1980s.
After the reform and opening up, China changed its development strategy, allowing the development of labor-intensive industries with comparative advantages, and soon became a "world factory". For example, high-tech products such as computers and mobile phones are actually labor-intensive processing sectors and belong to labor-intensive industries in China. Labor-intensive industries have comparative advantages and competitiveness; Only when you are competitive can you create profits; If there is profit, you can invest; After the investment, the capital has increased and the comparative advantage has changed-from extremely labor-intensive to relatively capital-intensive. In this process of transformation and upgrading, we can make full use of the advantages of backwardness, which is why China can develop so fast after the reform and opening up, but not before the reform and opening up.
If China's rapid economic development is due to its comparative advantage after the reform and opening up, why can't other countries in transition, such as the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, Latin American countries and many African countries, achieve the same result? The root of their problems is actually the same. Socialist countries all implement the "Stalin model" and the planned economic system that gives priority to the development of heavy industry, all of which develop modern industries under relatively backward mechanisms. Therefore, the problems arising from their planning and configuration are the same as those in China.
After World War II, even the developing countries in the capitalist camp promoted the priority development of heavy industry according to the mainstream thought of development economics at that time. Development economics, as a discipline, appeared after 1940s. At that time, development economics only saw the gap between developed and developing countries in industrial structure, that is, advanced heavy industry was the dominant industry in developed countries, while backward agriculture and natural resources industries were the dominant industries in developing countries. Therefore, it is suggested that developing countries should give priority to the development of heavy industry. In this case, their problems are the same as those in China, with many distortions, government intervention, inefficient resource allocation and suppressed enthusiasm.
China began to reform from 1979, and other socialist countries and developing countries began to reform and open up in the 1980s. But in 2000, looking back at the development of these countries from 1960 to 1980 and 1980 to 2000, we can find that their economic growth rate in the next 20 years is 1980 to 2000. Why did China achieve rapid growth for more than 30 years in the reform and opening up, but their economic growth rate was slower and crises were more frequent? This is actually related to their promotion of the so-called "Washington knowledge". At that time, there were many distortions between socialist countries and developing countries, similar to the idea that development economics suggested developing countries to establish industrial structures in developed countries. "Washington Knowledge" suggests that developing countries implement the system of developed countries, which is an ideal market economy system, including: all privatization and privatization of all state-owned enterprises; Liberalization and open free trade; Marketization, resources are allocated by the market and prices are determined by the market; Stability, that is, the government budget should be balanced, adopt a stable macro policy, and no longer subsidize enterprises that do not have the ability to survive in industries that do not meet comparative advantages.
Promoting "Washington knowledge" is counterproductive, because "Washington knowledge" only sees the distortion that is common in the economy, but does not see what the root cause of the distortion is. As mentioned earlier, after the 1950s, so many planned interventions and distortions in China's economy were aimed at protecting those enterprises that were unable to survive in the heavy industry system that gave priority to development. If the protection and subsidies achieved through distortion are cancelled immediately, all these enterprises will go bankrupt. However, there are many workers in those enterprises. If they all close down, there will be a lot of unemployment and social and political instability. Of course, there will be no development without stability. The vast majority of countries that promote "Washington knowledge" on the one hand are to avoid such socio-economic consequences, but also believe that these industries are advanced and needed by national modernization, so most politicians and people are unwilling to let them go bankrupt. Therefore, after the implementation of the "Washington" reform, these countries introduced many other more subtle distortions, protections and subsidies. In many cases, these measures cost more money than the original measures. For example, Russia's heavy industry is now controlled by eight oligarchs, and the protection and subsidies for these eight oligarchs are more than before the implementation of the transformation policy in the early 1990s.
Why? In the early 1990s, I argued with many economists at home and abroad, because those industries did not conform to comparative advantages and enterprises did not have the viability. After privatization, private bosses will never subsidize them out of their own pockets for the sake of national prosperity. Private capitalists only seek profits and don't do things that don't make money. After privatization, private capitalists will ask the state to protect subsidies on the pretext that these enterprises cannot survive. When it was state-owned property, the managers were all civil servants, whether it was a ministerial unit or a bureau-level unit. Civil servants can ask for protection subsidies on this ground, but they can't put money into their own pockets, otherwise it will be corrupt and illegal. But after privatization, the more you want it, put it in your pocket.
& ltDIV & gt It is natural to have more money, so there will be more protection subsidies after privatization than during the state-owned period. At that time, it was only theoretical derivation, but now a lot of practice has proved my point of view is correct.
Why did China not only avoid the collapse like the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, but also maintain social stability and rapid economic growth? The main reason is that China has adopted a gradual dual-track transformation model. For the heavy industry departments left over from the original planned economy era, knowing that they have no viability and need protection and subsidies, we should also acknowledge this reality and continue to give necessary protection and subsidies, and at the same time introduce profit retention, contract responsibility system and joint-stock system that can improve production enthusiasm. As long as the business is good, the income can be higher. In rural areas, the household contract responsibility system is implemented to improve the enthusiasm of farmers. In addition, we will implement an open policy for labor-intensive industries that have comparative advantages and were previously suppressed, and encourage private economy and foreign-funded economy to enter. Because these new sectors are in line with comparative advantages and develop rapidly, capital accumulation is also rapid. With the accumulation of capital, the comparative advantage has been brought into play, and many industries that did not meet the comparative advantage in the 1950s and 1960s have been able to sustain themselves and compete with industries in other countries. At the same time, the rapid development after the reform has created a lot of resources for the country, which can be used to subsidize those whose interests have been damaged in the reform and make the whole economy smoothly and gradually transform into a socialist market economy.
3. How long will China's rapid economic development last?
The most important question now is, how long can China's rapid growth last? What is the potential? From the previous analysis, it depends on the technological gap, that is, how big the backward advantage is. The technological gap itself shows that China is relatively backward, but it is also a resource. How to measure this gap? A good measure is the per capita income level, especially the per capita income level calculated by purchasing power parity. Because the per capita income level represents the level of labor productivity, and labor productivity reflects the use of technology and capital. At present, the latest data that can be used for the study of transnational history is the data of Professor Madison in 2008. In 2008, China's per capita income was 2 1% of that of the United States, Japan was 195 1, Taiwan Province Province of China was 1975, and South Korea was 2 1% of that of the United States.
During the 20 years from 195 1 to 197 1, Japan's average annual economic growth was 9.2%. During the 20 years from 1975 to 1995, the average annual economic growth in Taiwan Province Province of China was 8.3%. During the 20 years from 1977 to 1997, the Korean economy grew at an average annual rate of 7.6%. They all give full play to their comparative advantages and make full use of their late-comer advantages. After the reform and opening up, China has also adopted this economic development model. If Japan can maintain a growth rate of 9.2% for 20 years, China and Taiwan Province Province can maintain a growth rate of 8.3%, and South Korea can maintain a growth rate of 7.6%, China should have the potential to maintain an average annual economic growth rate of 8% for another 20 years after 2008. In other words, we can continue to emancipate our minds, seek truth from facts, keep pace with the times, constantly improve China's industrial and technological level according to Scientific Outlook on Development, make full use of the technological gap with developed countries, give full play to the advantages of backwardness, and maintain an average annual growth rate of 8% for another 20 years. After 20 years of rapid growth, Japanese per capita income has changed from 2 1% in the United States to 65.6%, Taiwan Province Province in China to 54.2% in the United States and South Korea to 50% in the United States. That is to say, if China makes full use of its late-comer advantage and maintains an annual growth rate of 8%, its per capita income at purchasing power parity should reach at least 50% of that of the United States by 2030, because the population of China is more than four times that of the United States. If the per capita income is half that of the United States by 2030, the overall size of China's economy will be twice that of the United States and it will become the largest economy in the world. If calculated at the market exchange rate, it may be lower. If converted at the current level of 2:/kloc-0:, by 2030, the overall size of China's economy will be at least equivalent to that of the United States.
What will China's economic development be like after 2030? Compared with the United States, which represents the most advanced country, China can continue to take advantage of its latecomer to maintain a high economic growth. Of course, reaching half of the per capita income of the United States is equivalent to the gap between South Korea and the United States. At that time, many industries reached the advanced level in the world. By then, China needs more independent research and development, which is a transition from introduction to independent research and development. Generally speaking, the prospect of China's economic development is promising.
Take the lead
China is a big agricultural country, with rural population accounting for more than 2/3 of the total population, and rural elderly populatio