Africa is experiencing an unprecedented population expansion. During the hundreds of years of invasion by western colonists, the growth rate of African population was very slow, even at a standstill for a long time. During the period of 1500 ~ 1900, the total population of the world increased by 2.8 times, while that of Africa was only 1.4 times, so the proportion of Africa in the world population decreased greatly, which fully showed that the invasion of western colonialists was especially serious.
Since the beginning of this century, with the partial improvement of social and economic conditions, the population growth rate in Africa has greatly increased, exceeding the world average, and its proportion in the world population has gradually picked up. In the 1950s and 1960s, a large number of African countries got rid of the shackles of colonialism, won national independence and further improved the overall social and economic environment. At the same time, population growth has reached an unprecedented high speed. Especially since the 1970s, the population growth rate of other continents in the world has gradually slowed down, while the population growth rate of Africa is still rising obviously. The contrast between them is very sharp.
Table 7- 1 Comparison of the average annual population growth rate of each state (‰)
African population reproduction is characterized by high birth rate and high mortality rate, especially high infant mortality rate. From 1950s to 1980s, the birth rate in Africa remained at a high level of 45-48 ‰, which not only greatly exceeded that in other continents, but also remained unchanged. 199 1 year is still as high as 44‰. However, during the above-mentioned period, the mortality rate in Africa dropped from about 25‰ to 1.4‰, with a quite obvious change. To a great extent, this is the result that several acute infectious diseases that were the most harmful in the past were basically controlled. The decline in mortality has led to an increase in the natural population growth rate in Africa. However, compared with other continents, the mortality rate of African population is still obviously high, which offsets the higher birth rate to some extent, otherwise the gap between Africa's population growth rate and other continents will be even greater. For example, 199 1 year, the birth rate in Africa is one thousandth higher than that in Latin America, but the natural growth rate is only nine thousandths higher, which is also the reason why the death rate is over seven thousandths.
At present, Africa is in an unprecedented period of population expansion. 199 1 year, the total population of the whole mainland has reached 677 million, an increase of 1 times compared with 1968, and the total population has doubled in just 23 years. It is now predicted that by 20 16, the population of Africa will double again, reaching13.5 billion. By 2 100, the population of Africa will increase to 2.5 billion, accounting for 25% of the world's total population, while at present it is only 12.6%.
With regard to the future situation of population reproduction in Africa, apart from some social factors, at least two points should be emphasized. First, due to the rapid population growth in the previous stage, Africa's population is particularly young at present, and children below 15 account for 45% of the total population, far exceeding the world average of 33%. Therefore, a large number of people will continue to enter the marriage age and childbearing age, which will inevitably lead to a baby boom that will last for decades. The population of other continents in the world will gradually enter a static or relatively stable stage from 20 10 to 2030, while Africa will be in a few decades. Secondly, the mortality rate in Africa, especially the infant mortality rate, is still obviously high (199 1 year is 102‰, and the world average is 68‰). With the progress of society in the future, this situation will definitely improve gradually, which will offset the decline of birth rate to some extent. To sum up, it can be concluded that the population expansion in Africa is still in the ascendant stage.
The population reproduction in different parts of Africa is different. Compared with sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa has a higher economic and cultural level, so the birth rate and mortality rate are lower. Especially since 1980s, the family planning work in North African countries has achieved initial results. In Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco, 35-50% of married women have taken birth control measures, resulting in a decline in the birth rate. During the period of1981~1991,the total population of the whole region only increased by 28%. In sub-Saharan Africa, except for a few countries such as South Africa, Zimbabwe and Botswana, the birth control rate of married women is extremely low, and the total population of the whole region has soared by 43% during the above-mentioned 10 years.
Except for a few countries, sub-Saharan Africa is a typical example of high birth rate, high mortality rate and high natural growth rate in the world today. 199 1 year, there are 1 1 countries in the world with a birth rate of over 50‰, 10 countries are in Africa, and Malawi and Uganda are as high as 52‰. The population mortality gap between sub-Saharan countries is greater than the birth rate, reflecting different socio-economic environments. Among all countries outside Africa, only one country (Afghanistan) has an annual mortality rate of199/kloc-0 exceeding 20‰, while in sub-Saharan Africa, there are as many as six countries, among which Guinea-Bissau is as high as 23 ‰; In some countries with rapidly improving socio-economic environment, the mortality rate is much lower, such as Kenya and Mauritius, which is only 7‰. Due to the above differences, the natural population growth rate of Guinea-Bissau and other countries is not high, generally only about 20‰. On the contrary, Kenya ranks among the top in the world with 38‰. At present, it is predicted that from 199 1 to 2025, the total population of the world will increase by 0.6 times, the population of Africa will increase by10.4 times, and countries such as Kenya, C? te d 'Ivoire, Rwanda and Zambia will more than double.
The reasons for the rapid population growth in Africa and the law of population reproduction mainly depend on people's material production mode, especially the level of productivity development. In addition, some political, social and cultural factors also have an impact. As far as Africa is concerned, the rapid population growth has a similar background to other developing regions, and there are also some special factors on the African continent. To sum up, there are mainly the following aspects.
(1) In terms of economic factors, Africa's economic structure dominated by agriculture and traditional small-scale peasant production methods dominated by manual labor are the main factors leading to rapid population growth. In this situation, the development of productive forces mainly depends on the increase of labor quantity rather than the improvement of quality, which directly stimulates people to marry early and produce more. Due to the backward economy, it is impossible to establish the necessary social welfare and social insurance system, and the support of the old, the weak, the sick and the disabled can only rely on family members, which also urges people to have the concept of having more children and caring for the elderly.
(2) Politically, since the country gained independence, various undertakings have developed significantly, increasing the demand for labor. Many countries hope to have a big population development from the perspective of strengthening their political and military strength.
(3) In terms of social factors, there are not only many ethnic groups and tribes in the vast areas of sub-Saharan Africa, but also tribal or village cooperative systems in rural areas for a long time. Chiefs and leaders hold political and economic power. In order to strengthen the strength of their ethnic groups, tribes and village communities, they also earnestly hope that the population will continue to increase. A typical example is Nigeria. There are more than 250 ethnic groups and tribes in Africa's most populous country, the largest of which is Hausa in the north, Igbo and Yoruba in the south, and there is a tripartite competition between them. 1962 A census was conducted in this country. Some politicians in the south had hoped that the population of the south would exceed that of the huge north, which was conducive to parliamentary elections and income distribution. They were very disappointed when the published figures were contrary to this. And tried to deny the census data. Obviously, in this case, the plan to control population growth will be difficult to advance effectively.
(4) In terms of marriage system and fertility will, influenced by traditional modes of production and religious factors such as Islam, Africa has always been characterized by early marriage, less divorce and extremely high fertility rate. Women are basically married at the age of 16 ~ 20, and then enter the reproductive period of about 30 years. Compared with other continents, especially developed countries, African women's fertility starts early and ends late, so the total fertility rate is very high (6. 1 91,Rwanda's highest, 8. 1. In addition, in Islamic countries, women rarely participate in economic activities, which will inevitably increase their fertility rate.
(5) Africa's backward culture and high illiteracy rate also hinder the development of population growth control. In addition, many countries do not pay attention to the publicity of birth control knowledge, so the contraceptive and birth control rate of married couples is very low. In most sub-Saharan countries, it is still only about 1%, and the fertility rate is actually in a state of spontaneous flow.
(6) The extremely high infant mortality rate in Africa (in sub-Saharan Africa, 1/5 or even 1/3 children will not live beyond 5 years old) has restrained the rapid population growth to some extent, but on the other hand, it has increased the birth rate, because parents have the psychology of having more insurance. For example, in Egypt, demographers have found that the high birth rate is closely related to the high infant mortality rate. In addition, after the death of the baby, the lactation period is interrupted, and the mother will soon become pregnant.
(7) The imbalance between the geographical distribution of population and the demand for labor in Africa has resulted in large-scale population migration without national boundaries, which has objectively reduced the population pressure in some areas, thus reducing the urgency of birth control.
(8) At present, almost all African countries pay attention to strengthening medical care to reduce morbidity and mortality, which is undoubtedly necessary, but it will inevitably lead to higher population growth rate.
The negative impact of rapid population growth on Africa. Most parts of Africa have good conditions for developing production. At present, the population density is not too high in Africa or most countries. As long as the productive forces are developed and rich natural resources are exploited, Africa can not only feed more people than it does now, but also greatly improve its living standards. Judging from the current situation in Africa, the economy and culture are still quite backward, and there are still various contradictions and difficulties in the process of social development. It is also obvious that the main reason for this situation is not the population problem, but its deeper historical and social background. However, we can't think that population is an insignificant factor. On the contrary, we know that there is a close relationship between the population situation and the development of productive forces. When analyzing the population situation, besides the quantity, growth rate and composition, we should also pay attention to physical quality, education level and labor skills. Only in this way can we have a more comprehensive understanding. When a country is still in the development stage, its productivity is relatively backward, and the accumulation of material wealth is still relatively meager, overpopulation, rapid growth and low population quality will inevitably become negative factors for social and economic development, and sometimes even form acute social problems. It should be said that Africa is typical in this respect at present.
Since the independence of many countries in the 1950s and 1960s, Africa has made many achievements in social and economic development. However, on the other hand, the contradiction between the population situation and it is becoming more and more acute. In some countries, this problem is particularly serious, and we must also pay enough attention to it. 1984 65438+ 10, at the second African population conference, then UN Secretary-General Pé rez de Cuellar said in his speech: "Unlimited population growth in Africa will undermine all efforts made in economic and social development." I pointed out this problem very clearly.
One of the main problems related to Africa's overpopulation and rapid growth is food shortage and serious food shortage. It should be admitted that in the past two or three decades, the situation of agricultural production in Africa, especially grain production, is not satisfactory. Although most countries have developed, they cannot keep up with the growth rate of population and food demand, and even the absolute output of a few countries tends to decline. As a result, the per capita food in Africa has been decreasing for many years. In the first half of 1960s, Africa accounted for 5.2 1% of the world's total grain output, which was significantly higher than that during the colonial period (4.6 1934 ~ 1938+0%). However, since then, due to various reasons, the development speed has slowed down, with 197 1 year being 4.96% and 1979 ~ 198 1 year being 4.47%. Since 1982, the rare drought for many years has dealt a devastating blow to agricultural production in many African countries. During the period from1983 to1984, the proportion of grain output in the world actually dropped to 3.8%. Comparing this figure with the proportion of Africa in the world population 1 1%, we can see the disparity. In recent years, agricultural production in Africa has recovered after the disaster, but during the period of 1988 ~ 1990, the grain output only accounted for 4.90% of the world.
In terms of per capita grain output, 1962 is 186 kg in Africa, with 0.5 kg per person per day, which basically meets the demand. At this time, of the 55 countries and regions in the whole continent, 25 are self-sufficient in grain. 1970, the per capita grain output in Africa decreased to 169 kg, 15 1 kg, and the number of countries and regions that were self-sufficient in grain also decreased to 10. In the early 1970s, the average daily intake of nutrients in Africa was lower than the physiological requirement 10 ~ 20%, and reached 30 ~ 40% in the late 1970s. By the time of 1984, the per capita grain output in Africa had dropped to 1 17 kg, which was 69 kg or 37% lower than that in 1962, resulting in 40% of the population in the whole continent falling into food shortage and millions of people starving to death. Without massive emergency assistance from the international community, the situation would be even more serious. From 1988 to 1990, the per capita grain output in Africa was 138 kg, only 40% of the world average.
It should be pointed out that the whole agricultural production in Africa, including grain, has gradually increased in the past two or three decades. Compared with the average levels of 1990 and 19 1 ~ 1965, the grain production index of the whole continent has increased by 76.3%, which is not much different from the world average growth rate. However, during the same period, Africa's total population soared by more than 1.20%, resulting in a 20% drop in per capita grain production index. On the contrary, the per capita grain production index of the world has increased by 16.4% in the same period, and the gap with Africa is getting bigger and bigger. The speed of population growth is one of the key factors.
From the perspective of countries, many situations are even more serious. Comparing 1990 and 1960, among 48 African countries with comparable statistical data, the per capita commodity grain production index decreased in 36 countries; In some countries, such as Sao Tome and Principe, Botswana, Angola, Gambia, Lesotho, Mozambique, Senegal, Sudan, Uganda and so on. The decline actually reached 1/3 or even 2/3; Considering that the original consumption or nutrition level is not high, the problem is even more serious after such a continuous and substantial decline.
In order to alleviate the urgent need, African countries have to import a large amount of all kinds of grain without foreign exchange, of which the total grain import has soared from 4.3 million tons in the 1960s to 6.5438+0.88 million tons in the year of 654.38+0.980, even reaching 30.62 million tons in the year of 654.38+0.984, and still reaching 6.5438+0.989. Many countries are heavily in debt, which is closely related to this (1989).
At present, Africa's population is still expanding rapidly, but due to insufficient investment and frequent natural disasters, it is difficult to fundamentally improve agricultural production for a while. Therefore, it is expected that the food problem in Africa will continue to exist, in which the self-sufficiency rate of food has dropped from 97% to 75% in the early 1960s to1989 (only 74% at the harvest time of1985), and it is expected to further drop to 50% by the end of this century.
Another prominent problem related to Africa's overpopulation and rapid growth is the deterioration of ecological balance. Although the ecological balance is affected by some natural factors, the pressure brought by the rapid population growth is one of the important reasons. The deterioration of ecological balance in Africa is mainly manifested in the destruction of natural vegetation, soil erosion, fertility depletion, desert expansion and the intensification of natural disasters. Among them, the destruction of natural vegetation is the main crux, and its direct cause lies in excessive population pressure and improper development and utilization, which leads to over-reclamation, overgrazing and deforestation. Restricted by the level of productivity, the migratory farming system has always prevailed in sub-Saharan areas. For every 1 hectare of land actually cultivated, there will be 1 ~ 5 times or even 15 ~ 20 times of abandoned farmland for rotation, which is a serious waste and destruction of land resources. When the population density increases, on the one hand, the leisure period of each land has to be shortened, and its natural vegetation and natural fertility cannot be restored; On the other hand, we have to expand the area of cultivated land as much as possible, at the cost of the destruction of forests and grasslands. Due to the needs of population growth, herders also strive to expand their herds, which leads to overgrazing, degradation and even desertification of grasslands. Grazing animals can only eat shrub trees (mainly Robinia pseudoacacia), which leads to the destruction of trees. In addition, sub-Saharan Africa has always been based on fuelwood, accounting for nearly 90% of the total timber logging (less than half of the world average), and forest destruction is also very serious, which has led to a sharp decline in forest area in Africa. According to statistics, in some countries, such as C? te d 'Ivoire, Togo, Gambia and Niger, the forest area decreased by about 1974 ~ 1989. If this trend continues, by the end of this century, there will be few forests left in vast areas of West Africa and East Africa, and the consequences will be unimaginable.
As a result of the above process, desertification in Africa has become increasingly serious, devouring a large number of farmland and grasslands (650,000 square kilometers in the half century from 1930s to 1970s), forcing thousands of farmers and herdsmen to lose their homes and have to move to foreign lands, further aggravating the population pressure in other regions. A typical example is Mauritania. During 1960 ~ 199 1 year, its population soared from 950,000 to 2 1 10,000, and the proportion of desert and semi-desert in the total land area rose from 2/3 to 98%. At present, there is no water in other parts of the country except a corner of the capital Nouakchott.
The aggravation of natural disasters is also closely related to vegetation destruction, especially drought. Since the beginning of this century, Africa has experienced three severe droughts that have lasted for many years. The first time was 1907 ~ 19 16, the second time was 1940 ~ 1949, and the third time began with 1968. In the third drought, the annual precipitation in the Sahel region of West Africa decreased by 30% compared with the normal year in 1968, and reached 45% in 1972. By the time the drought reached its peak in 1984, the precipitation in Ethiopia had actually decreased by 60%, which showed that the disaster situation was getting more and more serious. Ecological deterioration is an important reason why some areas in Africa have repeatedly caused serious food shortages that shocked the whole world.
The excessive and rapid population growth in Africa has caused many other negative effects on the social and economic environment. For example, in order to meet the needs of a large number of new population, the accumulation of development funds and the investment in expanding reproduction have been reduced, which has affected the development speed of the national economy and the improvement of people's living standards, and is also very unfavorable to improving the quality of the population. The excessive expansion of urban population has caused particularly difficult problems in many aspects, such as supply, employment, housing, health and public safety. Such problems are common in developing China countries, so I won't go into details here.
General situation of political development in Africa
Historically, Africa suffered from the crazy aggression and plunder of capitalism. Since 1950s and 1960s, African countries have achieved political independence and experienced three stages: democratic politics, one-party system and democratic movement. Especially since the 1990s, with the constant pressure from the international community and the gradual awakening of domestic democratic consciousness, the multi-party democratization movement in African countries has been developing, the freedom of democracy has been improving and the regional scope has been gradually expanded. The development of multi-party democracy has gradually become the knowledge of all countries, and Africa's position in the international political arena has gradually improved.
At present, the main characteristics of African politics are: first, unity and self-imposed development. In resolving national conflicts, the AU has actively intervened to solve regional security problems on its own. In the direction of political development, strengthening governance and promoting good governance have been widely recognized. The establishment of mutual inspection mechanism in Africa has, to a certain extent, improved the ruling ability of countries and provided a guarantee for African economic growth. Second, the international status and role are constantly improving. Fifty-three African countries account for half of the members of the Non-Aligned Movement, hold nearly13 seats in the United Nations and play an important role in United Nations diplomacy. "9? After the "1 1" incident, Africa's position in the foreign policy of the United States and other western powers has been continuously improved; The tight supply and demand of international oil resources has further enhanced Africa's international status. Third, the political and security situation is constantly improving. The new Somali parliament elected an interim president and the political situation gradually stabilized; Liberia has formed a transitional government, and the security situation has become increasingly stable; The Sudanese government signed a peace agreement with the rebels in the south, clearing the way for ending the civil war that lasted for more than 20 years.