As a world-class logistics consulting and research institution, IML in Hof, Flawn, Germany, has summarized the planning methodology of MSFLB logistics park based on demand-driven, competition-driven and best practice-driven.
The MSFLB planning method should be implemented through five steps, also known as "five steps". MSFUB is the abbreviation of the first letter of these five steps, which are: market research, market analysis, strategic positioning, functional design, layout design and business plan. The specific content of each step is shown in figure 1.
I. Market analysis
In order to deeply understand the economic development, market demand, infrastructure and service competition around the regional logistics park, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive investigation and study on the macro-economy, industry and micro-environment of the radiation area of the logistics park, and determine the long-term and short-term construction scale of the logistics park according to the long-term and short-term logistics volume.
The research methods and tools used in the process of data collection and investigation and analysis include: second-hand data collection and analysis, first-hand data collection and analysis. Among them, the collection and analysis of first-hand information includes in-depth interviews, telephone interviews, questionnaires and other methods.
After the first-hand and second-hand data collection is completed, all the data will be collected into a planning database, followed by data processing and analysis. We suggest to use SCP model for qualitative analysis (see Figure 2) and REA model for quantitative analysis.
SCP model was founded by Bain, scherer and others who are authoritative in industrial economics of Harvard University. The model provides an industrial analysis framework of market structure-market behavior-market performance, which can not only go deep into specific links, but also have a systematic logical system. Then, how to deduce the actual and potential demand for transportation, storage and processing of logistics parks from the turnover, output, cargo turnover and inventory demand of pillar/key industries? Using the empirical model formula of REA (demand estimation method) specially designed by IML Fraunhofer Association, we can easily calculate the transportation volume, warehouse operation area, value-added processing zone operation area and corresponding occupied area of each industry.
Every industry can get the total production (or consumption) of a certain area and the freight volume passing through the logistics park in this area from the market survey, and estimate the proportion of goods that may be stored in the logistics park, including the storage demand in bonded and non-bonded storage. The turnover rate and stacking method of products produced by each industry in the warehouse are different. According to the survey and empirical data, we can get how many goods can be stored per square meter of warehouse area every year, and then divide it by the annual storage volume of this industry, and we can get the area demand of bonded (non-bonded) warehouses. After knowing the proportion of simple logistics processing, medium logistics processing and complex logistics processing in different industries in the regional logistics park, we can also calculate the working area of bonded (non-bonded) warehouses for value-added services. Then, according to the technical and economic index required by China-warehouse building density, the required floor space of bonded (non-bonded) warehouses is obtained respectively. The main flow of demand analysis and calculation is shown in table 1.
Then refer to the growth rate of GDP in recent years and the expected growth rate in the next few years, and take this data as the annual growth rate of logistics operation in the regional logistics park.
In order to get the forecast data of logistics volume in the future 10- 15 years. In the process of calculation, different forecasting models can be established, such as exponential regression analysis and grey GM (1, 1) model, so that the forecast value is closer to the actual situation of the future development of regional logistics.
Second, the strategic positioning
After the detailed qualitative and quantitative market analysis, the planner must analyze the overall strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the logistics park (that is, SWOT analysis). If some services, such as airports, seaports and road freight stations, occupy a large proportion in the whole park, a special SWOT analysis must be carried out. These analyses are mainly to help the top management decision-makers in the park understand the internal and external environment, put forward the mission, long-term goal and winning strategy of developing the logistics park, so as to make accurate strategic positioning and help realize its strategic goals. The winning strategy here refers to the plan to beat the existing and potential competitors, including a series of measures to improve the level of logistics services, the "value scheme" of strategic selection of logistics parks and implementation steps. These strategies should be strictly restricted to internal use.
The typical winning strategies of logistics park are: making full use of the function of bonded logistics center to realize the high efficiency of import and export customs clearance and administrative management; Make full use of and expand the existing logistics information system to build a powerful international logistics information platform; Make full use of the international trade policies of WTO and CEPA, establish special European and American goods distribution centers, and expand international logistics business; Make full use of the advantages of existing enterprises and the characteristics of logistics demand in the park, enhance the competitiveness of industry supply chain, gather industry logistics, and realize the formation and optimization of industrial chain; In accordance with the development requirements of circular economy, with the goal of creating an ecological logistics park, we will firmly establish Scientific Outlook on Development, adhere to equal emphasis on economic development and ecological protection, and devote ourselves to the cultivation and promotion of the ecological environment.
Third, functional design.
The functional design of the logistics park mainly adopts the top-down method, that is, after determining the planning principles of the logistics park, the core elements involved in the logistics function planning are enumerated and analyzed, and then the most suitable experience for the domestic logistics park is summarized by collecting and sorting out a series of the most advanced international logistics park cases. Subsequently, the whole logistics park will be divided into several functional areas, such as logistics industrial zone and management service zone. The planner will name, define and allocate corresponding areas for each functional area from two aspects: international best practice experience and actual demand obtained from market research, and introduce related facilities, equipment and IT systems. The last step of functional planning is to define and describe the core process of logistics park. These processes include: container service. The supply and distribution of raw materials for production, the procurement and distribution of living materials, the operation of bonded logistics and the logistics service of airports, seaports and railways.
Fourth, the layout design
The facility planning and layout design of the logistics park refers to the most appropriate distribution and effective combination of the space needed by personnel, equipment and materials in a certain space according to the strategic positioning and business objectives of the logistics park and the whole process from the entry, assembly and processing of goods to the delivery of goods, so as to obtain the greatest economic benefits.
At present, there are not many cases that can be referenced in the layout planning of domestic logistics parks. The best practice cases of European logistics parks (see Table 2) can make the layout of domestic logistics parks have many experiences worth learning: the design concept of the park, the division of different functional areas; Arrange related industries according to the close relationship between logistics and airports, seaports and land transportation; The planned area of the plot can meet the flexible demand and has optional expansion space; Facilities planning of multimodal transport such as waterway, railway, highway and aviation; Logistics enterprises that maintain industrial processing and high added value
Reasonable distribution ratio between them; Fully consider the geographical and ecological environment, beautiful design, and consider the reserved land for environmental protection.
The location and planning of various building facilities in logistics park should adopt scientific quantitative methods, such as some optimal location methods, shortest path method, minimum cost and maximum flow method in operational research. Effective material entry and exit table method, handling system analysis method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in fuzzy theory, optimal decision method, etc. The rationality of logistics park planning and facility layout can also be tested by animation simulation. German Logistics Research Institute has mature software and models in logistics park simulation, which can easily help customers optimize the planning results.
Verb (abbreviation for verb) business plan
The business plan includes the organizational structure and responsibilities of the logistics park management company, the business model of the logistics park, revenue forecast, customer analysis, park sales, marketing strategy, investment income and other financial summary analysis.
The development of logistics parks is generally carried out in stages. The phased implementation will be easier than the whole one-step development. In the later stage, we can learn from the experience of the previous stage and further adjust and optimize the marketing strategy and other details in the next step. The typical business model of logistics park includes: property support, construction support, financial support, human resource support, environmental support, safety support, quality support, equipment support and other services.
In the marketing of logistics park, it is suggested to adopt integrated marketing methods such as brochures, user magazines, participation in promotion meetings and trade fairs, visual image design, internet, investment guides and advertisements to achieve the expected results.