In 2007, China's economy was overheated. At that time, what everyone needed to solve was the problem of "braking" to prevent inflation; But the situation is changing, and today's global economy is in depression. What impact will the economic crisis have on China's economy, on our enterprises, and how should we deal with it? These are issues that people are generally concerned about. I will focus on these issues, combined with the actual situation of the group, and talk about the focus of the group's work in 2009 and the development ideas in the next one to two years.

The Future Trend of China Economy

1. Optimistically speaking, the future economic trend of China will recover in two to three years, pessimistically speaking, it will recover in three to five years. However, facing the economic situation, we can neither be blindly optimistic nor blindly pessimistic. The recovery curve of China in the future is tubular, and the brakes are easy to start. The bottom may be 2009, but we will grow slowly.

2. Depression rather than recession. The economic situation in China in 2009 is quite grim, but it is still possible to achieve the goals of "eight" and "nine" economic growth. China's economic development will be affected to some extent, which is a decline, but not a recession.

3.2009 is the most difficult time for most enterprises. First of all, it will take some time for people to restore their confidence, and it will also take some time for the central policy to take effect. The 8% growth rate created by these central measures is the concept of GDP growth. The growth of GDP may only be driven by the increase in the number of transactions. In addition, GDP is not always effective. For example, when a house is built and demolished, pushing the house is GDP and building the house is GDP. The growth of effective wealth has yet to be calculated. Simply put, economic growth has both quantitative and qualitative problems.

Secondly, 2009 will be the most serious year of overproduction in history, because many enterprises in China relied on exports a few years ago, and now the situation is that there is an excess of domestic sales, and exports are turned to domestic sales, resulting in a serious overproduction.

4. China remains one of the most dynamic economies, with the greatest space and opportunities. For China, the economic crisis is the biggest opportunity. China's industrialization has just begun, and its level and efficiency are relatively low. The level of urbanization in China is also relatively low, and more farmers will move from Tiankan to cities in the future, creating great demand.

Generally speaking, there will be no major economic problems in China. First of all, it comes from the government's control ability. At present, China's ruling system is relatively perfect, with strong high-level ruling ability, clear thinking and strong economic regulation and control ability; Second, China has a large domestic demand space, and the market space of 654.38+0.3 billion people is very large; The third is that the capital market is relatively closed; The fourth is the patience of China people. The Chinese nation is an industrious nation, and the families in China have maintained social stability. Fifthly, enterprises in China are highly adaptable, while enterprises in China are bright and energetic.

The influence of economic crisis on this group.

1. The economic crisis has an impact on our group, but it is not big.

Our primary business, the feed industry, has little impact. The feed industry has experienced many twists and turns, some of which are cyclical and have great anti-risk ability; In addition, the feed industry solves the problem of people's livelihood. As long as people eat meat, there will be a feed market.

For the retail sector, we have ushered in more opportunities. First of all, the state stimulates domestic demand in order to promote retail. The development of retail industry can open up the production and circulation links, facilitate people to shop and solve the problem of overproduction. This year, the state introduced the policy of the same electricity price and water price for industrial and commercial enterprises, which is great good news for supermarkets; In addition, our retail industry is mainly in the west, and the retail industry in the west is not as good as that in the east, and there is a lot of space; And at this time, the cost of finding a port will be lower. It is difficult to find a port when the market is good. Now is a very good time.

For the education sector, the lowest economic downturn is the most prosperous education. If it is difficult to find employment, it is necessary to upgrade skills, which is an important opportunity for the rapid development of vocational education. In addition, with the rapid depreciation of the Australian dollar and the British pound, studying abroad has once again become a trend. We will run a joint school with Australian universities, and its market will be very large.

The energy and chemical sectors have relatively great influence.

Energy is highly related to the macroeconomic impact, but only the profit level is affected to some extent because the investment is very cautious at first.

The chemical sector has been affected, but the future decline in infrastructure costs, coupled with our cost advantage, has also brought us opportunities. In addition, our chemical products are not ordinary chemical products, but environmental protection products supported by the National Development and Reform Commission. The demand for drinking water, firecrackers, textiles and other industries is very great.

Why is it that the economic crisis has little impact on our group, but has greatly promoted the education and business fields? This is mainly due to the following four reasons:

(1) The industrial layout of the Group is reasonable. In terms of industrial choice, we are not doing backward things, but doing advanced things, which is in line with the general direction of China's economy. What does China lack? Lack of commercial pull, lack of high-quality talents and lack of energy are the main directions for us to choose investment.

Furthermore, the industry we choose also has some characteristics. First, the cash flow is good; Second, the return on investment is high and stable; Third, it can be enlarged.

(2) Group investment decisions are relatively rational. Rational investment is one of the reasons for the stable development of the group. From 2007 to 2008, we gave up many projects, because we firmly believed that the fundamental things could not be given up, and some things could only be obtained without us.

(3) The Group's development strategy is accurate and clear. After many discussions, "2 1 1 project" has adapted to the development of the group and also conforms to the development concept of "active and steady development equals high speed".

(4) The Group has a solid foundation. Our foundation has benefited from the accumulation of President Chen Yuxin for many years. Hope Group has become an evergreen tree of private enterprises, and there are many experiences we need to sum up. At present, we have certain economic strength and brand strength. The economic crisis has little impact on us, but more importantly, it is an opportunity.

Enlightenment from the crisis

1. Be prepared for danger in times of peace. The economy will not be good forever, nor will it be bad forever; It will not go up forever, and it is impossible to go down all the time. The economy is cyclical, which requires us to be prepared for danger in times of peace. We must be rational when others are crazy. Stay rational when you are at your best and most confident. Sometimes when you are most confident, you are blind and confident.

2. Money that is too easy to earn will not last long. If making money is too easy, then many people will choose to enter this industry. After many people enter, it is also the time when there are problems in this industry. Don't believe what falls from the sky.

3. Risk management is becoming more and more important. Safety comes first. We say safety is 1, followed by more zeros. If 1 is gone, it is meaningless. This time, we also emphasize the management of enterprises, first of all, we must ensure safety, including investment safety, operation safety and management safety.

4. A moderately conservative fiscal policy is necessary. We see that Li Ka-shing and Buffett are very conservative. If you can't have money when you have the opportunity, something will happen. The moderately conservative financial policy has brought us more opportunities.

5. Cash flow is the blood of an enterprise. Enterprises without cash flow are very dangerous, so we should put the cash flow management of enterprises in the first place, because in today's China market environment, the products are sold but the money is not necessarily yours. In the next step, we will implement centralized management of funds throughout the group to improve the efficiency of fund utilization of the group.

6. Never deviate from the fundamentals of doing business. Now many enterprises don't know why they exist, so we need to know what is the basis of making money. Making money is to provide products and services to customers. If you start a business just for money, there may be problems. Many investors collapsed because they regarded enterprises as products and finally regarded enterprises as playthings. Enterprises should never forget their roots. We often say that we should do "profit under the sun" and "sunshine business". This is the foundation of our enterprise. You can't make money just by focusing on money.

7. We should handle the relationship between earning money by opportunities and sustainable development by competitiveness and management ability. Some enterprises can make money when the market is good and lose money when the market is bad, which is not what we advocate. There is no unprofitable industry, only unprofitable enterprises. Money that is too easy to earn is often risky. Managers who used to do private equity risk will not do it if the return on investment is less than 8 times. Nobody likes doing business, but now they are in crisis.

Next, we must earn money from management and ensure that we can make money at any time through management. Now the agriculture and animal husbandry departments have basically reached this level. No matter how volatile the market is, we can guarantee profitability, which needs to be learned by all sectors. Chairman Chen Yuxin said that agriculture and animal husbandry is our primary business, because it is the "hen" developed by our group, and the formation of our corporate culture comes from agriculture and animal husbandry.

8. Scientific Outlook on Development is very important to enterprises. We should deal with the problems of "good and fast", "strong and big" and "quality and quantity" of development, and simply lay the groundwork instead of relying on investment. Scientific Outlook on Development demands that our growth mode should not be extensive, and we should rely on our core management ability to make money.

9. Good people also need supervision. The United States is a credit country, and they pay special attention to the credit problem. But there is a problem in a country with such good credit, which is the reason for poor supervision. Our group should strengthen supervision.

Through this economic crisis, we deeply feel that it is particularly important to adhere to the core values of enterprises. It is very important to adhere to the basic concept of "people-oriented, continuous innovation", the enterprise spirit of "honesty, intelligence, hard work and pursuit of beauty" and the development concept of "active and steady development equals high speed".

We should adhere to the enterprise spirit of "honesty, intelligence, hard work and pursuit of beauty". Honesty always comes first. If money is evil, we would rather not make it, and we will never leave the foundation of doing business.

Furthermore, we should adhere to the basic concept of "people-oriented, continuous innovation". Leading cadres should regard people as the core wealth of enterprises and let each of us give full play to our subjective initiative and creativity. It's fair, pure and simple, and there's nothing dirty. Innovation is the vitality and vigor of an enterprise.

We must also adhere to the development concept of "active and steady development equals high speed". No matter how fast it develops, if it is unstable, it will bring risks and security problems. It can be seen from this economic crisis that many entrepreneurs have problems because they have made the most fundamental mistakes in doing business. Corporate culture is the key work of every company and must be integrated into everyone's blood. We must remember that the recognition of corporate culture is the first requirement for us to use cadres and personnel.

Look at the crisis correctly

1. Crisis-Opportunity in Danger. Most of the opportunities for successful enterprises are seized in the crisis. When others won't and dare not make moves, we make moves, and the opportunity belongs to us. The key to an opportunity in distress is whether you can find and get it, know what it is, and have the ability to get it after it comes.

2. "I am afraid that others are crazy, and others are afraid that I am greedy." This is the famous saying of Warren Buffett. When you get a sum of money easily and your heart doesn't tremble, then this enterprise is very dangerous. To be an enterprise, you must have a sense of crisis. And "greed" is what others don't want to do and dare not do, but what we can do.

3. Advantages of large enterprises. The crisis has brought more and more opportunities to large enterprises. Crisis is the best opportunity for industrial structure adjustment, as well as market expansion and scale expansion.

4. Asset prices have fallen sharply. The arrival of the economic crisis has led to the decline in asset prices, which has greatly reduced our operating costs.

5. Grasp the best opportunity of internal management. The economic crisis is also the best time for us to slow down our management. There are too many opportunities. Don't be busy collecting gold and relax management. Internal management must always be unremitting. References:

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