Under the background of economic globalization, the imbalance of international economy will lead to the redistribution of international capital on a global scale. In a sense, the international economic imbalance and the defects of the international monetary system are the preconditions for the outbreak of the financial crisis, while the attack of international hot money is the realization condition for the outbreak of the financial crisis. Judging from the current international situation and China's domestic situation, the preconditions for the outbreak of financial crisis have been met, so preventing international hot money attacks is the primary goal of formulating China's current macroeconomic policy.

Keywords: financial crisis, international economy, international monetary system and international hot money

Whether the financial crisis is caused by external factors or internal factors, there have always been two opposing views in academic circles: conspiracy theory and legal theory. Conspiracy theory holds that the financial crisis is caused by premeditated and planned attacks on the economy and is caused by external factors, especially after the financial crisis in Southeast Asia. Legal theory holds that the financial crisis is the law of the economy itself and is caused by internal factors. The theory of three generations of financial crisis is basically the theory of recognition law. With the improvement of financial supervision technology, the possibility of a country's financial crisis caused by problems in supervision or control becomes smaller; With the increasing trend of economic globalization, the modern financial crisis basically shows that under the condition of international economic imbalance, international capital is driven by interests and the distorted national monetary system leads to the outbreak of regional financial crisis, so in essence, the nature and causes of financial crisis have changed. Based on the existing research, this paper analyzes the causes of the financial crisis from the perspective of international economy.

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International experience and realistic thinking of financial crisis

Abstract: Since 1990s, frequent financial crises have brought great harm to the economies of various countries. Firstly, this paper reviews and summarizes the causes of financial crises in various countries, and summarizes their experiences and lessons. Then, combined with the factors that may induce the crisis in China's financial system, this paper makes a useful discussion on preventing and resisting China's financial crisis, and finally puts forward some suggestions.

Keywords:: realistic thinking about the lessons of the financial crisis

With the economic globalization and the gradual opening of China's financial industry, China's financial system has increasingly become an inseparable part of the world's financial system. However, the frequent financial crises since the 20th century clearly show the dangers of financial crises. Especially for a big country like ours, the financial crisis may be a disastrous result in a sense. Although there has not been a financial crisis in our country so far, this does not mean how sound our economic structure and financial system are, but more can be attributed to our previous closed state. In fact, in recent years, the debate about China's financial crisis has almost never stopped abroad. Like Nicholas? Lardy believes that China's financial crisis has matured, and the only thing lacking is the fuse that triggers a full-scale crisis (Wu Chuanfu, 2003). Far eastern economic review even published an article "China's financial system will be destroyed" in 2002. Although these viewpoints have their own starting points, it is an indisputable fact that there are many factors that induce the financial crisis in China's economic system. Therefore, at present, financial opening has become a trend, and it is more urgent and important to learn from the financial crisis of other countries, prevent financial crisis and enhance the ability to resist financial crisis.

I. Theoretical summary

The authoritative definition of financial crisis is given by Goldsmith (1982), which is the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators-short-term interest rates, asset (assets, securities, real estate, land) prices, the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institution failures. It is characterized by throwing a large number of real estate or long-term financial assets in exchange for money based on the expectation of falling asset prices. Financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis and banking crisis. In recent years, the financial crisis has increasingly presented a mixed crisis form.

(A) Marx's theory of financial crisis

Marx's financial crisis theory was established on the basis of criticizing Ricardo's "proportion" theory and Say's "market equilibrium law". Marx pointed out that the appearance of money makes it possible to separate the sale of goods in time and space, which leads to the uncertainty of the transformation process between money and goods, and the function of money as a means of payment objectively leads to the possibility of debt payment crisis; Therefore, the key to the possibility of financial crisis and economic crisis lies in the different independent movement value characteristics of goods and currencies. As long as commodities and currencies exist, economic crisis is inevitable, and it will be manifested as financial crisis first.

Marx further pointed out that "once the sociality of labor is manifested in the existence of commodity money and something other than real production, it is inevitable that an independent currency crisis or a currency crisis will be sharpened into a real crisis." It can be seen that Marx divided monetary and financial crises into two types: monetary and financial crises accompanied by economic crises and independent monetary and financial crises. The financial crisis accompanying the economic crisis is mainly based on market competition, capital accumulation and credit development, while the independent monetary and financial crisis is the result of disorder within the financial system. At the same time, Marx particularly emphasized the role of bank credit in alleviating and aggravating the financial crisis.

Generally speaking, Marx believes that financial crisis is based on overproduction and financial surplus, which is manifested as liquidity crisis and debt repayment crisis of enterprises and banks, but it is essentially a currency crisis.

(B) Western financial crisis theory

The early influential financial crisis theory is the debt-deflation theory put forward by Fisher (1933). Fisher believes that in the process of economic expansion, the increase of investment is mainly achieved through bank credit. This will lead to an increase in money, which in turn will lead to an increase in prices; However, rising prices are beneficial to debtors, so credit will be further expanded until the state of "excessive debt", that is, current assets are not enough to pay off debts due, resulting in a chain of debt-deflation processes, which often end in large-scale bankruptcy. On the basis of Fisher's theory, Minsky (1963) put forward the theory of "financial instability", Tobin (1980) put forward the theory of "banking system key" and kindleberger (1978) put forward the theory of "excessive trading".

After 1970s, financial crises broke out more and more frequently, and often appeared as independent economic crises. On this basis, the theory of financial crisis has gradually matured. From 1970s to 1990s, it can be roughly divided into three stages. The first stage of the financial crisis model was put forward by P.Krugman( 1979), which was improved and developed by R.Flood and P.Garber. It is believed that the disharmony between macroeconomic policies and exchange rate system is the cause of the financial crisis. The second stage financial crisis model is represented by M.Obstfeld( 1994, 1996), which mainly introduces expected factors, conducts dynamic game analysis between the government and the private sector, and emphasizes the self-promotion nature of expected factors and the important role of economic basic variables in the financial crisis. 1997 after the Asian financial crisis, the financial crisis theory developed to the third stage. Many scholars have jumped out of the traditional macroeconomic analysis scope of monetary policy, exchange rate system, fiscal policy and public policy, and started to analyze the financial crisis from the aspects of financial intermediation and information asymmetry. A representative example is the moral hazard model put forward by Krugman (1998), which emphasizes the core role of moral hazard of financial intermediaries in causing excessive venture capital to form asset bubbles; The liquidity crisis model (J.Sachs, 1998) focuses on explaining the mechanism of financial crisis from the instability of the financial system itself; The Twin Crisis (kaminsky &; Reinhart, 1998), studies the internal relationship between banking crisis and currency crisis from the empirical aspect. Second, the international experience and lessons of the financial crisis

Historically, the early typical financial crises were "tulip mania" in the Netherlands, south sea bubble in Britain, Mississippi bubble in France and 1929 Great Depression in the United States. Due to the limitation of space, this paper only reviews the major financial crises that have occurred since the 1990s, trying to find out the same factors that led to the financial crisis, so as to provide reference for our country to prevent the financial crisis.

(1)1There were five major financial crises in the 1990s, arranged in chronological order as follows:

1.1992-1993 European currency crisis

In the early 1990s, Germany and Germany merged. In order to develop the economy in the eastern region, Germany raised the discount rate to 8.75% in June 1992. As a result, the exchange rate of the mark began to rise, which triggered the turmoil of the European exchange rate mechanism in 1 year. The financial turmoil broke out one after another, and the pound and the Italian lira were forced to withdraw from the European exchange rate mechanism. The European currency crisis emerged in the process of European economic and monetary integration. On the surface, it is caused by Germany increasing the discount rate alone, but its deep-seated reason is that the monetary policies of EU member States are uncoordinated, which fundamentally violates the requirements of the joint floating exchange rate system, and the uncoordinated macroeconomic policies are closely related to the economic development differences of EU member States.

2. 1994- 1995 Mexico financial crisis.

1994,1On February 20th, 1994, Mexico suddenly announced that it would expand the fluctuation range of peso against the US dollar to 15%. Due to the long-term accumulation of contradictions in the economy, this triggered a crisis of market confidence, and as a result, people sold pesos in succession. At the beginning of 1995, the peso depreciated by 30%. Then the stock market also fell. The sharp depreciation of peso caused imported inflation. In this way, in order to stabilize the currency, Mexico sharply raised interest rates, which led to a decrease in domestic demand, a large number of enterprises closed down and a sharp increase in unemployment. With international aid and the efforts of the Mexican government, the financial crisis in Mexico began to ease after 1995. There are three main reasons for Mexico's financial crisis: first, the debt scale is huge and the structure is unbalanced; Second, the current account deficit continues, resulting in insufficient reserve assets and declining solvency; Third, the rigid exchange rate mechanism cannot meet the needs of economic development.

3. 1997- 1998 Asian financial crisis

The Asian financial crisis is a domino effect caused by the sharp depreciation of Thai currency in Asia. The scope, duration and impact of this financial crisis are rare in history, which not only caused the turmoil in the foreign exchange market and stock market of Southeast Asian countries, but also led to the closure of a large number of financial institutions, increased unemployment and economic recession, and also spread to other parts of the world, causing serious impact on the global economy. The Asian financial crisis involves many different countries, and the causes of the crisis vary from country to country. However, the Asian financial crisis is no accident. There are many factors that induce financial crisis in different countries, such as macroeconomic imbalance, fragile financial system, opening and monitoring of capital market, and disharmony between currency convertibility and financial market development (Li Jianjun, Tian Guangning, 1998).

. 1998- 1999 Russian financial crisis

Affected by the Southeast Asian financial crisis, the Russian financial market has been in an unstable state since 1997 fell. By May 1998, an unprecedented shock finally broke out, the stock market was in crisis, and the ruble was under severe depreciation pressure. Russia's financial crisis is a comprehensive reflection of Russia's political, economic and social crisis, which is called "Russian syndrome". From the external factors, on the one hand, it is due to the impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, on the other hand, the decline in world oil prices has led to the deterioration of the balance of payments and the decrease in fiscal revenue. But the fundamental reasons are domestic political turmoil, long-term economic depression, imperfect financial system and unreasonable foreign debt structure.

5. 1999-2000 Brazil Financial Crisis

199965438+1On October 7th, minas gerais, Brazil announced that it was unable to repay its debt to the federal government of 154 billion dollars within 90 days due to financial exhaustion. As a result, the Brazilian stock market plummeted by about 6%, the price of Brazilian government bonds plummeted by 4 4%, the real continued to weaken, and the central bank governor changed hands twice in three weeks. The exchange rate of the real against the US dollar fell one after another, and the stock market fell one after another. The "Samba Cyclone" immediately blew to Asia, Europe and North America, directly impacting the capital markets of Latin American countries, Europe and Asia. The external cause of Brazil's financial crisis is mainly the deterioration of the international trade environment caused by the financial crisis in Asia and Russia, while the internal cause is the result of a combination of many factors, such as increasing public debt and deficit, long-term international trade deficit, macroeconomic policy mistakes and so on.

From these financial crises, we can see that the financial crisis is actually like the sword of Damocles, always hanging over the heads of countries, but falling in different countries at different times. It can be said that financial crises of different degrees occur almost every year around the world. In fact, Argentina's financial crisis broke out again in 200 1 year, which shows the frequency of financial crisis.

The typical financial crisis since the 20th century has the following characteristics: (1). Infectious; (2) Suddenness; (3) destructive; (4) frequency. Generally speaking, the outbreak of financial crisis is the result of many factors. Judging from the development trend, the interior of the financial system is increasingly becoming the direct cause of the financial crisis. The imbalance of macroeconomic structure, rigid exchange rate system, fragile financial system and unreasonable foreign debt structure often become the soil for brewing financial crises, which are also the same reasons for these financial crises.

(B) Lessons from the financial crisis

The increasingly frequent financial crisis has provided important experiences and lessons for our country. There are roughly the following points:

1. Implement a flexible exchange rate system. For a country's economy, we can generally choose a floating exchange rate determined by the market or a fixed exchange rate intervened by the central bank. Comparatively speaking, fixed exchange rate has comparative advantages in microeconomic efficiency, but the clear commitment of the central bank to maintain exchange rate stability makes it necessary for the central bank to sacrifice the autonomy of monetary policy, while floating exchange rate enables monetary policy to cope with various shocks, thus leading to better macroeconomic performance. However, the implementation of a fixed exchange rate system does not mean an absolute fixed nominal exchange rate, but a dynamic adjustment to reflect the trend of economic development. Facts have proved that if the pressure of exchange rate changes cannot be resolved in a positive way, it will inevitably be released in a crisis way. In Mexico and Thailand, for example, the rigid exchange rate system cannot reflect the trend of real exchange rate changes, so the pressure to fix the exchange rate is increasing. As a result, under the impact of speculators, foreign exchange reserves will decline and lead to a crisis of market confidence.

It's best not to expect international rescue.

External loan assistance is usually considered as one of the most effective anti-crisis measures. The international monetary fund and other countries' external loan assistance is conducive to stabilizing the currency and restoring economic growth in crisis countries, but its organizational structure determines that its functions need to be based on the interests of very few countries. The difference of IMF's performance in the Mexican financial crisis and the Asian financial crisis illustrates this point, which is actually one of the important reasons for the huge difference in rescue time between the two crises. In addition, the IMF's loan conditions are often harsh, even at the expense of some national interests, accompanied by a long bargaining time, which is extremely unfavorable to countries in crisis. This is actually why Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir would rather live in poverty than ask the IMF for help. Therefore, we should not place too much hope on international rescue after the financial crisis.

3. Appropriate external debt scale and structure

The double-gap model proves that developing countries must resort to foreign capital and foreign debt even if their savings rate is high. In fact, the inflow of foreign capital has played an extremely important role in the economic development of developing countries. However, the scale and structure of foreign debt should be controlled within a reasonable range, especially for the entry and exit of huge short-term funds, in order to reduce the turmoil in the financial market. In the above-mentioned financial crisis, short-term funds almost always play a role in fueling the flames. In addition, the borrowed foreign debt should be used for investment purposes, not for repaying old debts, and it should not be squandered by the privileged class.

4. Macroeconomic imbalance is often an important cause of financial crisis.

Summarizing these financial crises, we can see that macroeconomic imbalance is often a prerequisite for the outbreak of financial crises. In particular, the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis coincided with the "East Asian miracle" attracting the world's attention. So the reason is worth pondering. In fact, under the cover of the halo of high growth, the Asian economy driven by high input and high export has already had serious structural problems. Failure to adjust the economic structure in time aggravated the economic imbalance and became the basic condition for the outbreak of the financial crisis. Third, China's realistic thinking on preventing the financial crisis

So far, there has been no financial crisis in China, which can be attributed to the stable macroeconomic environment, good balance of payments, prudent financial liberalization and non-convertibility under capital account. However, although it has not been directly impacted by the financial crisis, it does not mean how safe China's current financial system is. In fact, the deep-seated contradictions accumulated in China's gradual reform have become the potential factors inducing the financial crisis. This is generally manifested in the following aspects: 1. Reform of state-owned enterprises; 2. Illegal operation and excessive speculation in the securities market; 3. Reform of state-owned commercial banks.

After the Asian financial crisis, the IMF summarized the preventive measures for the financial crisis, mainly focusing on the following five aspects: 1. Encourage the government to implement healthy macroeconomic policies; 2. The Bank for International Settlements will formulate a series of standards to encourage emerging markets to abide by these standards; 3. Establish an automatic assistance mechanism in the IMF to automatically provide assistance to countries that meet the standards in case of financial crisis; 4.IMF actively encourages emerging markets to use price instruments to limit inappropriate and excessive short-term capital inflows; People's attention has shifted from restricting short-term loans to letting lending institutions take more risks. For our country, besides the five points summarized by IMF, it is more important to solve the factors that induce financial crisis in our economy. Starting from the prevention of financial crisis, we should build a perfect financial system and an effective supervision system to enhance our ability to resist financial crisis.

1. Strengthen the prudential supervision system. The fragility of prudential supervision system is an important reason for the financial crisis in many countries. Without effective supervision, a country's financial system will lose its security barrier. Without a strong and effective prudential supervision system, there will be a lot of moral hazard in the banking system due to the existence of explicit or potential deposit insurance and information asymmetry. In this way, the expectation of deposit insurance or government guarantee in the event of a crisis will induce financial institutions to take excessive risks, which will lead to a greater probability of financial crisis (Lebao, 1989). According to the current situation of China's supervision, we should improve the supervision system from the system, eliminate the loopholes in supervision, and promote the efficient operation of China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Insurance Regulatory Commission. Cultivate the micro-financial foundation for the operation of financial supervision system; Effectively combine the internal control of the financial system with external supervision; Improve and perfect the means of supervision; Supervise supervisors, balance and restrict the rights and obligations of supervisors.

2. Improve and stabilize the financial system. Traditional economic theory holds that the market-oriented financial system is superior to the bank-led financial system, but the latest research shows that the two financial systems have their own advantages and disadvantages. For a country, which mode to choose should be considered more from its social, historical and cultural background. However, most economists come to the conclusion that a "good" financial system should have an effective legal system, good accounting standards, a transparent financial system, an effective capital market and standardized corporate governance. Practice has proved that a sound financial system will play a crucial role in resisting the financial crisis.

3. Reform the inefficient state-owned banking system. At present, the inefficient operation of the state-owned banking system has become an important factor affecting the stability of the financial system. The historical bad debts accumulated over the years and the inefficient bank governance structure have increased the fragility of China's financial system. Goldman Sachs pointed out in the research report of June 5438+February 2002 that the most worrying thing about China's banking system is not the devastating collapse trend of the banking industry in Southeast Asian countries in the Southeast Asian financial crisis, but the financial system like Japan, because the delay in launching a thorough financial reform not only caused the banking system to collapse, but also seriously restricted the recovery and growth potential of Japan's economy. In addition, China should introduce private banks to form a moderately competitive banking system. Practice in various countries has proved that marketization is the fundamental way to improve the operational efficiency of the banking system.

4. Prudently pursue financial liberalization. After 1970s, under the guidance of McKinnon and Xiao's financial liberalization theory, many countries set off a wave of financial liberalization. However, the performance of financial liberalization in different countries is quite different. Improper financial liberalization in many countries has led to a serious financial crisis. For China, financial liberalization has become a realistic choice. It is important to create good initial conditions for financial liberalization and prudently advance the process of financial liberalization.

5. Establish a financial crisis early warning system. Financial crisis is often the result of the accumulation of financial risks, so it is extremely important to monitor and control financial risks in advance and resolve financial crises before they occur. Risk factors in the financial system, especially the potential factors leading to financial crisis, such as inflation, exchange rate, banking system risk and debt risk, should be included in the early warning system of financial crisis.

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