Affected by the demographic structure, including Cai? Some scholars have suggested that in about 20 13 years, the dependency ratio in China will drop to a low point, and the demographic dividend will disappear. Borrowing the economic data of previous years, we take the "population dependency ratio" as the indicator of demographic dividend, and the total assets of industrial enterprises above designated size as the proxy indicator of capital accumulation. Through the comparison of data in different years, we can see the deceleration trend of dependency ratio decline and the acceleration trend of capital accumulation, thus the demographic dividend decreases. What I want to share with you today is the related papers on the impact analysis of population and economic growth in China. The details are as follows, welcome to read and refer to:

Analysis on the Influence of Population and Economic Growth in China?

There are many factors that affect economic growth. For a specific economy, a suitable institutional environment is an important guarantee to promote its economic growth. Because the system is endogenous, and population density is an important factor affecting the formation of the system. Secondly, material capital and labor force are the most basic factors of production and the main source of sustained economic growth. Third, the increase and improvement of human capital stock is not only the goal of economic growth, but also an important condition to ensure the sustainability of economic growth. Therefore, among the main factors affecting economic growth, it is closely related to population. ?

First, the current economy and society of China

Not long ago, the central bank officially announced that China's broad money quantity ***M2*** exceeded the trillion yuan mark for the first time. As an economic indicator to measure the sum of cash in circulation plus current and fixed bank deposits of enterprises and residents, from less than 13 trillion in 2000 to the billion-dollar mark today, it must be said that China has indeed made remarkable economic achievements in the last decade. With the continuous improvement of per capita disposable income in urban and rural areas, the steady progress of urbanization and the continuous emergence of small and medium-sized enterprises in various places, the "China model" which has never been mentioned for thousands of years has appeared in major economic newspapers and periodicals at home and abroad.

In the past, no matter what goods you bought, you had to buy them by ticket. Panda and Sakura brand products can occupy the whole market in China, and even the whole village get together to watch a 10 inch black-and-white color TV. Nowadays, there are a wide range of goods in the shopping malls and a rising national shopping frenzy. From the consumption of national income by western economics alone, we can get a glimpse of the situation in China for decades. Many people are exploring what makes China achieve such great economic achievements. According to Professor Zhang Wuchang, at least China has done something right to achieve such rapid growth. Therefore, arguments such as "China Model Theory" and "Local Competition Theory" are endless.

After the reform and opening up, China's economy has sustained rapid growth for decades. In recent years, despite the increasing upward pressure on the economy, the factors driving China's economic growth have not fundamentally changed. The per capita disposable income in urban and rural areas is increasing, and the social security system is also improving. Through the macro view of "micro * * *", the state keeps China's economy in a healthy state, while the domestic investment enthusiasm is not diminished, which also drives the economy to maintain high growth. However, there are many factors, including economic environment and policy environment, from everyone's desire to go to the coastal gold rush to the emergence of the phenomenon of "fleeing north to south" today. This paper analyzes the economic growth in recent years from the perspective of population. ?

Second, demographic dividend and economic growth.

In Malthus' theory of population economy, he proposed that the relationship between population and economy can be attributed to the relationship between population and means of production, and the relationship between population growth and per capita income. The former plays a role as an endogenous variable. Evolved to the later endogenous growth model, by relaxing the hypothesis of neoclassical theory, technological progress and population factors were regarded as endogenous variables, and the source of economic growth was demonstrated by constructing production function.

In recent years, the rapid economic development in China has attracted the attention of many economists. Many scholars have pointed out that in the process of population structure transformation, the economy and society will enter a "golden age" which is very beneficial to social and economic development, with a high proportion of working-age population and a low proportion of elderly and young people dependent on the population. The so-called "demographic dividend", as a huge thrust of economic development, not only escorted the sustained economic growth of China, but also freed China's economy from the repeated threat of economic bubbles through its huge consumption capacity.

Affected by the demographic structure, including Cai? Some scholars have suggested that in about 20 13 years, the dependency ratio in China will drop to a low point, and the demographic dividend will disappear. Borrowing the economic data of previous years, we take the "population dependency ratio" as the indicator of demographic dividend, and the total assets of industrial enterprises above designated size as the proxy indicator of capital accumulation. Through the comparison of data in different years, we can see the deceleration trend of dependency ratio decline and the acceleration trend of capital accumulation, thus the demographic dividend decreases. Although this observation is not absolutely reliable, we can draw a preliminary conclusion that China's economy has probably surpassed the development stage of making maximum use of the demographic dividend. The reason why China's economy has not been more energetic in recent years is not because the demographic dividend will last for many years, but because the essence of demographic dividend is that sufficient labor supply can prevent the phenomenon of diminishing capital returns, so it can rely on capital investment to maintain high-speed economic growth recently. ?

Three. Population migration and economic growth

Foreign media recently conducted a survey on "the fastest growing city in the world", and Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, was unanimously regarded as "the fastest growing big city in the world". The survey also selected the most populous city in the world, with Tokyo ranking first with an astonishing population of 36.7 million, and China ranked seventh. In this survey data, only Tokyo and new york are in the traditional first world ranks, and most other cities are in Southeast Asia and South America. The excessive concentration of population not only makes great contributions to urbanization, but also brings many disadvantages. The use of urban public resources is close to the limit, and a series of social problems such as public transportation and public security are extremely prominent.

China has been carrying out reform and opening up for more than 30 years. With the influx of workers into cities, many cities, including Beishangguang, have now become internationally recognized "megacities". The rising of urban floating population makes the urban consumer market expand continuously, and the emergence of many commercial centers is the best example. At the same time, labor-intensive industries such as construction and industry are also booming. With years of cheap labor and abundant mineral resources, China has become a recognized "world factory".

However, there is a certain contradiction between the limited urban resources and the growing urban population. The large concentration of population has increased the employment pressure, so that a large number of floating population have not benefited from the economic benefits brought by immigration. However, due to their low level of education, their work is also at a low level in cities, and the gap between the rich and the poor in cities is also widening, thus aggravating social instability.

Therefore, we should see that the massive migration of population has made great contributions to the gradual urbanization of China, and the industrial output value and per capita income level have gradually entered the ranks of medium-sized countries. However, with the continuous effect of population migration, the economic benefits brought by population migration are gradually decreasing due to urban accommodation. However, urban ills are getting worse and worse. High housing prices in many cities, including Beijing, have gradually reduced the radiation capacity of cities, which has brought certain tests to the future sustainable development of cities. Therefore, under the favorable and unfavorable economic growth mode, we should start to consider reasonably guiding domestic population migration.