Unstable factors in the Middle East: Although the situation in Palestine and Israel has improved since June 5438+ 10, 2005, it still needs careful observation, especially since July 2005, on the eve of Israel's stepping up implementation of the unilateral action plan, the situation in Palestine and Israel has become tense again. Political reconstruction in Iraq continues to advance, but the security situation in Iraq is very bad. Under the high-pressure policy of the United States, Iran and Syria once stepped onto the front desk of the United States, and the development of relations still remains variable. Hot spots in the Middle East will persist for a long time and continue to affect the regional and world situation.
(1) Now the Iranian nuclear issue is tense.
(2) The overall situation in Iraq is relatively stable, but the security situation is extremely grim.
(3) The Arab-Israeli conflict is protracted, and the Palestinian-Israeli dispute is protracted.
(4) Terrorism and religious extremism continue to develop.
(5) Territorial disputes and water disputes are complicated.
The reason why that world pays attention to the middle east are:
(1) Religious disputes in this area are complicated.
(2) The Middle East has an important geographical position and is known as "the land of five seas and three continents".
(3) The Middle East is extremely rich in oil resources, and is known as the "world oil depot" and "oil ocean".
(4) The intervention of colonialism, imperialism and superpowers led to chaos in the Middle East.
(5) The polities of various countries are complex and diverse, the development of modern political systems is incomplete, and the economic and social development is unbalanced.
(6) Water disputes are common in this area, and some scholars call them "water wars".
The situation in the Middle East and its influence: An important event happened in Egypt in A.D. 1990. That is, with the support of the International Monetary Fund and a large amount of dollars, Egypt began economic reform, trying to change the Soviet-style planned economic system established by Nasser and take the road of privatization and marketization.
In all fairness, these reforms still have a good effect on the Egyptian economy. A major change is that high inflation has been contained, from the previous high inflation of almost 25% to 10%. For a long time, it was still around 5%. Economic growth has reached the level of 5-7%.
However, the reforms led by financiers such as Mubarak Jr. rely on losing the original burden of the government. The most important of these are two kinds of subsidies, one is energy and the other is food. This leads to the instability of the government's own system.
Another problem is that Egypt relies mainly on foreign funds, resulting in a high foreign debt.
Before 2008, these two factors were not urgent because of the overall international environment. Because overseas funds are too abundant, they are inexhaustible. Because China's cheap consumer goods swept the world, many poor Egyptians got enough food and clothing.
But once the food price in the international market changes, the inflation in Egypt immediately becomes the fuse.
During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the rare earth industry has great potential.
Institutional funds will flow back 5 billion yuan to compete for four industries, and the press and publication industry will receive 60 billion yuan to support the reform of the "New Third Board", speed-up robots will benefit from the "high-speed communication railway", and four types of companies will benefit [Weibo]. Xu Xiaoyu: How to grasp the annual report market [stocks] and reveal the real intention of the main force [He Xun knows] How to make steady profits in stock trading without losing to Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor? Lieberman said on 16 that two Iranian warships will sail through the Suez Canal and enter the Mediterranean Sea. Iranian media reported that the two warships will carry out anti-piracy escort missions to protect the safety of Iranian cargo ships and oil tankers. Lieberman did not talk about how Israel got this information, but he called Iran's move "provocative."
At the same time, in other countries in the Middle East, protests are still fermenting. It also includes members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries like Libya. 16, Bahraini people protested for the third day. According to foreign media reports, the conflict in Yemen has caused casualties.
London crude oil breakthrough 104 USD.
JPMorgan Chase's latest report points out that the unstable situation in oil-producing areas such as the Middle East has brought high risks to the oil market, and this risk is increasing.
Take the Suez Canal as an example. At present, it is the main international shipping channel connecting Europe, Asia and Africa, connecting the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, and it is an important oil transportation hub in the world. Once the Suez Canal is not running smoothly, it will greatly increase the transportation cost of crude oil and push up the oil price.
Some analysts pointed out that although Bahrain and other countries are not major crude oil producers themselves, they are closely related to oil producers such as Saudi Arabia. Once the situation in these countries deteriorates further, it will not rule out the adverse impact on neighboring oil-producing countries.
Stimulated by the situation in the Middle East and other factors, international oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday, with London oil prices hitting a new high again. London session 17, Brent crude oil futures hovered above 104 USD in April. The day before London closed, the contract rose by $ 2. 14 to $ 103.78, the highest closing level since the end of September 2008. New york WTI crude oil futures, which recently received a large discount, also rose 0.8% to a two-week high of $84.99 on Wednesday.
However, later 17, oil prices fell. Earlier, some local media quoted anonymous sources as saying that the Suez Canal operator had been told that the plan of two Iranian warships passing through the canal had been cancelled.
The price of gold rose for four consecutive days.
Gold is also affected by the situation in the Middle East. The international gold price rose for the third consecutive day, reaching $65,438 +0.375. The price of gold continued to rise on Thursday, once reaching $65,438 +0.380.
At the same time, the situation in the Middle East has also affected regional and even global financial markets. Worried about the conflict between Iran and Israel, the US stock market 16 once fell rapidly at noon, only to rise again driven by more favorable data. In the Middle East, the Egyptian financial market, which was dragged into chaos by politics, continued to shut down this week.
3. In which direction will the "Greater Middle East" situation develop?
(1) The key to many problems in the Middle East is the Arab-Israeli contradiction (that is, the Middle East issue), which is difficult to completely solve in the short term. The Middle East issue includes the Palestinian issue and the dispute between Israel and Arab countries, of which the Palestinian issue is the core. Since 199 1, although some important achievements have been made in the Middle East peace process, the most intractable and crucial issues such as the final status of Jerusalem, refugees, borders, Jewish settlements and water resources are far from being solved. Coupled with the serious conflict that has lasted for more than four years since September 2000, it can be predicted that although the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks have initially achieved a ceasefire, it is difficult to make substantial progress in the short term. The policy of the US government, the instability of the Israeli government, the degree of internal coordination of the Palestinian side and many other issues will all be important factors affecting the peace talks. The instability of the Palestinian-Israeli situation in July 2005 once again illustrates this point. From the historical experience, even if some agreements are reached, the implementation of the agreements is still full of obstacles.
(2) World powers such as the United States, Russia, Britain, France, Germany, Japan and India will continue to compete in this region. Although other big countries in the world are trying to show their influence, the influence of the United States is hard to be replaced. Over the past few years, Bush has changed the policy of "the West promotes peace talks and the East restrains Iran" during the Clinton period, and instead adopted the strategy of "breaking first and then establishing" to promote "anti-terrorism" and "democracy and freedom" in parallel. Bush's new term will start with reforming values and reshaping geopolitics, and comprehensively promote the Greater Middle East strategy. On the basis of stabilizing the situation in Iraq and promoting the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, the United States will comprehensively use unilateral and multilateral, diplomatic and military means to eliminate the anti-American regime, promote western values, and realize its overall leadership position in the Greater Middle East. Because the United States is in a strategic dominant position, its "Greater Middle East Democracy Plan" will make some progress, but the "goal" of the plan is too large and blocked by many parties, and it is expected that it will be difficult to achieve overall results in a long time.
(3) The inherent complexity and long-term nature of religious problems make it impossible to solve them in a short time. Religious culture has relatively tenacious stability and long-term nature. Most contradictions in the Middle East have a long history, and some hot spots will not be weakened, but may even be intensified. It is unrealistic, even unattainable, to give birth to "democracy and freedom" and achieve complete religious integration within a few years. Hot issues involving religion and culture will continue to affect the regional situation for a long time to come, especially the so-called "clash of civilizations" put forward by the United States untimely and without reason and put into practice to some extent, which will lead to long-term civilized opposition and military confrontation between the United States and countries in the region. Under the continuous pressure and impact of the Middle East policy of big countries, especially the United States, the Middle East region will face great transformation, and the transition period will be full of turmoil and variables, which will continue to affect the world situation.
North Africa: North Africa is the northern part of the African continent, traditionally a vast area north of the Sahara Desert. It covers an area of 8.37 million square kilometers. Population10.50 billion (199 1), more than 70% are Arabs. Arab culture and Islam are important human characteristics in North Africa. Mineral resources include oil, phosphate and natural gas. Agricultural products include cotton, gum Arabic, cork, olives, figs, dates and so on. Produce camels. Even from the natural and cultural characteristics of North Africa, the similarity is similar to that of West Asia. For the convenience of research, people sometimes put it together with West Asia. The most representative country in North Africa is Egypt and the city is Cairo, the capital of Egypt. Because it is the representative of the desert, it is called the star of the desert.
The instability in North Africa has triggered a new market structure.
Recently, the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, represented by Libya, has not only attracted the attention of the whole world, but also caused great turmoil in the global oil market and national economies. In view of the influence of oil, this "political crisis" may turn into an "oil crisis". The recent turmoil in the Arab region reflects the ghost of geopolitical and energy strategy games.
First of all, the interests of the EU bear the brunt.
First of all, the EU is a major investor in Libya's oil economy. In 20 10, Libya's output was10.6 million barrels per day, of which 72% was mainly concentrated in the hands of overseas oil companies led by Eni Group of Italy, Wintershire Oil Company of Germany and Total Company of France. The turbulent situation forced these overseas oil companies to evacuate their personnel and stop production in whole or in part, resulting in huge losses. However, China mainly built projects in Libya, with less direct investment and limited losses.
Secondly, the continued turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa will inevitably push up oil prices and easily lead to global inflation, and the EU economy may bear the brunt of the global inflation wave. Because the United States has a high strategic crude oil reserve, Britain is located in Brent Oilfield, and China has huge foreign exchange reserves, if the international oil price continues to climb, the EU economy, which is troubled by the debt crisis and inflation, will begin to appear and will suffer a major blow.
Finally, the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa will force refugees to flood into European neighbors, which will have a certain impact on local economic and social stability.
Second, the United States has the initiative.
Tunisia and Egypt in North Africa took the lead in the outbreak of unrest, which had profound social and political roots, but the direct trigger was their own high inflation. Looking around the world, only Gome, the world's largest agricultural production reserve, has the strength to manipulate international food prices.
On the one hand, as early as George W. Bush's term, the United States launched a plan to replace oil with corn ethanol gasoline, which not only reduced America's dependence on oil, but also pushed up international food prices; On the other hand, after the Obama administration came to power, the United States further liberalized offshore oil exploration. Thus, by February 20 10, 10, the United States had actually changed from an oil importer to a net exporter.
In other words, the rise in oil prices has little impact on the United States. However, the United States may stay out of the "oil crisis", seize the strategic initiative, and strive to gain the greatest benefits from regional turmoil: First, use imported inflation to curb the economic development of China and the European Union; Second, it is difficult for Arab countries to protect themselves through turmoil, thus relieving the worries of attacking Iran; Third, take advantage of the chaos, continue to increase the right to speak in the Middle East and North Africa and strive for more oil interests for the United States.
Third, under the game of all parties, the situation is still unclear.
The continuous rise in oil prices is definitely not in the fundamental interests of the imprisoned EU economy. Therefore, the EU strongly urges Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi not to suppress the people by force, lest military repression lead Libya into civil war, further worsen the situation and push up oil prices. At the same time, in 20 10, China's dependence on foreign oil has increased to 53%, and Middle East oil accounts for about half of its imported oil. If the unrest continues, there will be a shortage of oil in China and the price will skyrocket, which will lead to high inflation and restrict the rapid economic development. Therefore, China is paying close attention to the latest development of the situation. Although the rise in oil prices is in line with the global strategic interests of the United States to a certain extent, it is not what the United States wants to see that Libya has become a hotbed of terrorism because of the turbulent situation. Moreover, excessively weakening other Arab countries will benefit Iran.
At present, the turbulent situation continues to spread, making Saudi Arabia, the world's most important oil exporter, restless. If there is a big turmoil in Saudi Arabia, the international oil price will break through the historical high of 147 USD/barrel just around the corner. This will be a fatal blow to the world economy.
Fourth, unexpected analysis-the situation in North Africa and the Middle East, international oil prices, RMB internationalization, and US Treasury bonds
The recent instability in the Middle East and North Africa has led to an increase in international oil, which has aroused great concern in the market. How the situation in the Middle East and North Africa evolves has a great influence on oil, but there are many uncertain factors, and waiting and waiting is the mainstream attitude. Guangzhou Bandung. Com believes that the instability in North Africa and the Middle East has many domestic factors, such as economy and religion, which are difficult to solve in the short term. From the external factors, the United States, which has a strong voice in the situation in North Africa and the Middle East, faces some challenges in this process, but it is generally the beneficiary of the current situation. Therefore, in the short term, the instability of the situation in North Africa and the Middle East will keep the market worried about rising oil prices and high inflationary pressures, and this expectation will put pressure on the market in the short term. But in the medium and long term, domestic high-level officials will probably take effective measures to form a balance with the United States in order to change their passive position in oil. For example, using huge foreign exchange reserves and US Treasury bonds to gain greater voice; Promote the internationalization of RMB in a timely manner, enhance the status of RMB as an international reserve currency, and change the pattern dominated by the US dollar. If the latter advances beyond expectations, such as the RMB IPO in Hong Kong, it will have a positive impact on A shares, at least changing the valuation correction of AH's stock price upside down.
The Influence of Middle East and North Africa Turbulence on Oil Supply
2065 438+00- 12 The political situation in some Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa was obviously turbulent, and the international crude oil price hit a new high in two years. Based on the comparative analysis of previous oil supply shocks in the Middle East or North Africa, and combined with the judgment of current economic fundamentals, the author believes that this round of turmoil in parts of the Middle East and North Africa has limited impact on global crude oil production and economic growth, and oil prices will fluctuate greatly in the short term, but it is unlikely to continue to rise rapidly. However, with the sustained economic recovery of developed countries such as the United States and the rapid economic growth of emerging market countries, it is more likely that international oil prices will continue to climb slowly in the medium and long term.
1. The current turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa has limited direct impact on the global crude oil supply.
First of all, the share of oil production and reserves in countries with obvious turmoil in the world is relatively small, and other oil-producing countries or regions can quickly make up for the decline in production by using idle capacity.
Secondly, the current global crude oil inventory level is still high.
Third, the transfer of power in Egypt is relatively smooth, and important energy channels remain unblocked.
Second, the influence of the political crisis and military conflict in the Middle East on the world crude oil supply and price is gradually weakening.
From the historical experience, since 1970s, there have been five major political crises or military conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, which have had a great impact on the world oil supply. These five crises are: 1973 OPEC oil embargo, 1978- 1979 Iranian Islamic revolution,1980-198/Iran-Iraq war,1. During the crisis, the proportion of oil production of directly affected regions or countries in the world decreased significantly, with a decrease range of 3.5%-8.8%. The analysis of the above five crises can provide a reference scenario and help to quantitatively evaluate the impact and sustainability of the latest crisis on oil supply and oil prices. Comparing the above five crises, we can see that the degree and persistence of its influence are mainly manifested in the following three trends:
The impact of oil supply changes in the Middle East and North Africa on world crude oil production has weakened, and the impact duration has gradually shortened.
2. In the short term, the oil supply shock can lead to obvious fluctuations in the world oil price, but the durability of this impact is gradually weakening.
3. The overall impact of oil supply shock on economic growth is gradually weakening.
By the end of February of 20 1 1, the oil production of countries or regions with obviously unstable situation in the Middle East and North Africa accounted for 6.8% of the global total output, among which Libya, which was greatly affected, reduced its production by 800,000-900,000 barrels per day, accounting for less than 1% of the global total output. Generally speaking, the impact of this crisis on global oil production so far is lighter than that of the past five crises. Considering that the situation in Saudi Arabia and Iran is relatively stable at present, according to the experience of several crises in the Middle East or North Africa, it is estimated that global oil production can fill this gap in about three months, and it is unlikely that international crude oil prices will continue to rise rapidly.
Third, it is more likely that the international oil price will continue to climb slowly in the medium and long term.
First of all, the economies of emerging market countries such as China have maintained rapid growth.
Second, the economy of developed economies, especially the United States, is gradually recovering. Continued loose monetary policy may fuel inflation expectations and push up crude oil prices. At present, the level of economic growth in the United States is close to the level before the crisis.
Third, oil has the dual attributes of resources and finance, and its price fluctuation will inevitably be affected by international speculative funds.