In the past year, the international situation was complicated and changeable, and the world economy and trade slowed down obviously. Globally, it is estimated that the world economic growth rate in 20065438 is +0.5%, far lower than the level of 4.7% in 2000, while the economic growth rate in the United States in 200 1 year is only1.1%; Japan's economic decline in 200 1 year will be 0.9%; The EU's economic growth rate in 20001year is expected to be 1.7% (predicted by the International Monetary Fund). In sharp contrast with the world economy, driven by the strong expansion of domestic demand, China's economy has maintained a high growth rate. According to the preliminary forecast of authoritative departments, China's GDP exceeded 9 trillion yuan for the first time in 20001year, which was 7.3% higher than the previous year at comparable prices, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.5%, and the total retail sales of the whole society increased by more than 10%. It can be considered that as the first year of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, 200 1 has basically completed all the main indicators, and the national economy as a whole has achieved a good start in the Tenth Five-Year Plan.
In 200 1 year, the overall quality of China's national economic operation has been significantly improved. In the first three quarters, the comprehensive index of economic benefits of industrial enterprises (correlation and quotation) reached 1 19.2 points, 4.4 points higher than that in 2000; The annual profit reached or slightly exceeded last year's 430 billion yuan, and the fiscal revenue in the first three quarters increased by 242%, which was higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. The growth rates of corporate income tax, personal income tax and foreign-related corporate income tax are all above 50%.
200 1 There are some bright spots in China's economic operation. One of the highlights is that the coal industry, which has suffered losses for many years in a row, has turned losses into profits. Among the 14 key industries monitored by the state, only the coal and military industries did not turn losses in 2000. From June 5438 to September this year, the whole coal industry realized a profit of 654.38+72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease in losses and an increase of 2.34 billion yuan. The rapid growth of real estate investment and consumption is the second striking highlight of China's economic operation in 200 1 year. The third bright spot is the sharp increase of net capital inflow caused by the change of world economic environment and the improvement of domestic investment environment. The fourth bright spot is that the comprehensive effect of the western development has begun to appear, which has a positive effect on the growth of capital construction investment, final consumption and international capital inflow. Finally, the system construction of the securities market has made great progress, which has added a lot of color to the economic operation of China. 200 1 A series of regulations and supervision on the behavior of market subjects and changes in market operation rules have laid a solid foundation for the overall opening and internationalization of China's securities market.
1.2 Basic characteristics of economic operation in 20065438+0 years
First, the contribution of financial investment to economic growth and consumer demand has declined.
China's GDP7% growth of 7% in 200 1 year is mainly attributed to the government investment under the active fiscal policy, which is mainly reflected in the growth of capital construction investment and renovation investment. In the first eleven months, the growth rate of capital construction investment supported by financial funds was 10.4%, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In addition, the government has increased its support for technological transformation through treasury bonds, resulting in an increase of 203% in the investment in renovation and transformation in the first 1 1 month, which is 3 1 percentage point higher than the same period last year.
200 1 China's consumer demand is basically growing steadily. It is estimated that the total retail sales of social consumer goods will increase by about 10% year-on-year, which is basically the same as that in 2000. However, compared with the influence of consumption demand on GDP growth last year, its contribution to economic growth decreased in 200 1 year. The Consumer Confidence Monitoring Report of China recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in February 2006, the consumer confidence index, which comprehensively describes consumers' satisfaction with the current economic situation and their expectations for future economic trends, showed an upward trend again after four months of decline, rising from 96.9 points in 1 1 to 97.65438+. This shows that despite the uncertain world economic prospects, consumers still have confidence in the direction of China's economy. The rebound of consumer confidence index should be attributed to the growth of consumers' immediate income and consumers' expectation of future income. The second factor driving the recovery of consumer confidence index is the performance of the overall economy, and the third factor driving the recovery of consumer confidence index is the changes in prices and consumption environment.
Second, economic restructuring: strive to increase speed.
200 1 the results of economic restructuring are as follows: all key industries are profitable, long-term industries (coal) have successfully turned losses, monopoly industries are about to break the ice, and emerging industries are leading the trend.
The first performance of structural adjustment and optimization is that in 200 1, 14, the national key industries realized the profit of the whole industry, especially the long-term loss-making coal industry finally turned losses into profits. The second performance of structural adjustment and optimization is that the investment projects of enterprise technological transformation have obviously stimulated domestic demand. 1 10 in the month, state-owned and other industrial enterprises completed the renovation and transformation investment of 3160 billion yuan, up 24. 1% year-on-year. Of the 880 national debt technical transformation projects, 604 have been started, and about 290 will be completed and put into operation before the end of the year. After the completion of these projects, it is estimated that the new profits will be 654.38+05.8 billion yuan, the new taxes will be 8.8 billion yuan, and the foreign exchange earned by export will be 654.38+07.5 billion dollars. The third performance of structural adjustment and optimization is that emerging high-tech industries are growing faster than other industries, including mobile communication equipment, computers, program-controlled switches and optical communication equipment industries. Among them, the growth rate of sales revenue of electronic communication equipment manufacturing industry reached 20.5% from 1 to 10, ranking first in all industries and 8 percentage points higher than all industries. knot
The fourth manifestation of structural optimization is that the imbalance of regional economic development has begun to change. With the full implementation of the western development strategy and the strong support of the state finance, the investment environment has been greatly improved, and the investment growth rate is much higher than that of the developed eastern regions and the central regions. The fifth manifestation of structural optimization is that some monopoly industries, including civil aviation and telecommunications, have undergone large-scale industrial restructuring, and at the same time, policy programs to break monopoly and encourage competition have been launched one after another.
Third, the net inflow of capital has replaced exports as a new driving force for economic growth.
In 2000, China's exports showed an extraordinary growth of 27.8%, so this year's exports started on the basis of last year's high base. There are normal factors for the quarterly decline in export growth this year, but the main reason is that the slowdown of the US economy has led to a general downturn in the world economy. The economic scale and import and export trade of the United States account for about a quarter of the world. The slowdown of American economic development has led to further shrinking demand in the international market. Over the past 20 years of reform and opening up, China's economic dependence on foreign countries has reached more than 40%. The decline of foreign trade export will not only affect China's economic growth, but also adversely affect employment and tax revenue. Although China has taken a series of measures to expand exports since the middle of the year, which has slowed down the decline of exports, it is expected that exports will maintain a growth rate of around 4% this year.
200 1 The unexpected increase in the utilization of foreign capital is the only external pulling factor brought to China by the slowdown of world economic development. International capital inflow may even be close to $50 billion, becoming one of the new "Troika" of China's economic growth in 200/KLOC-0. 200 1 While the external investment environment has changed, China has introduced a series of policies and measures, including improving the investment environment, protecting intellectual property rights and new preferential policies, especially revising the Law on Sino-foreign Joint Ventures, the Law on Sino-foreign Cooperative Ventures and the Law on Foreign-funded Enterprises, which has reversed the trend of slowing down the growth rate of foreign capital utilization in China since 1999.
2 Economic growth forecast
2. 1 Engine of economic growth
200 1 China's economic growth mainly depends on the strong investment of the government, which is mainly attributed to the substantial increase in real estate investment and decoration investment. Secondly, the contribution of 200 1 foreign capital growth to economic growth increased significantly, while the contribution of exports and final consumption decreased. Looking forward to the net inflow of investment, export, consumption and capital in 2002, our basic view is that fixed assets investment and net inflow of capital, which are mainly government investment, will still influence the economic growth rate next year, while private investment will still have a small pulling effect on economic growth, and the contribution of export and consumption to economic growth will continue to weaken.
As the proactive fiscal policy is expected to continue to be implemented, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society in China will probably maintain steady growth in 2002, and its growth rate is expected to be between 1 1% and 13%, slightly lower than that in 2006 1. Among them, the rapid growth of real estate investment and decoration investment will continue, and the investment growth rate is expected to be around 20% and 18% respectively, while the growth rate of capital construction investment is relatively low, still hovering around 8%.
2002 will be the best time for China to utilize foreign capital, and the favorable factors far outweigh the unfavorable ones. The favorable factors are as follows:1) The international economic environment in 2002 is not optimistic, or even more severe. The most optimistic expectation is that the US economy will start to recover in the second half of 2002 at the earliest, so China will become a good haven for international capital. "... China's macroeconomic stability has also inspired the confidence of overseas investors. According to the survey conducted by the American Global Business Policy Committee in April, 20001,the confidence index of foreign direct investment in China is 1.69, ranking second in the world and one of the most attractive regions in the world. 2)200 1 China's successful accession to the WTO will greatly promote the introduction of foreign capital in 2002. 3) In order to make effective use of international capital to participate in the development of the western region, the state has issued a preferential policy of 10 to attract foreign investment, and comprehensively opened up important projects such as "West-to-East Gas Transmission" to foreign investment. It is predicted that the net capital inflow of China will maintain a strong growth trend in 2002 on the basis of a substantial increase of 200 1. For every one percentage point increase in the rate of foreign direct investment, the GDP growth rate of China will increase by 0.3-0.4 percentage points on average, and the net capital inflow will continue to be one of the main "engines" of economic growth in 2002.
In 2002, because the international environment has not improved and there is limited room for domestic policy adjustment, its contribution to economic growth will continue to decline. In 2000, China's exports increased by 27.8%, but this strong growth obviously stalled in 200 1 year, and it is an indisputable fact that the export growth rate slowed down. It is predicted that the contribution of exports to economic growth will continue to decline in 2002.
It is predicted that consumption will maintain a relatively stable growth level in 2002. The overall forecast is that the total retail sales of social consumer goods will increase by 9.5%- 10%, which is slightly lower than the growth level of 5438+0 in 2006 or basically the same, and its contribution to economic growth is expected to continue to decline. However, because the proportion of final consumption in China's GDP is as high as 6 1.3%, its significance to economic growth cannot be underestimated.
2.2 Forecast of economic growth rate in 2002
The authoritative IMF is optimistic about China's economic growth in 2002. According to its estimation, even if the global economic growth slows down in 2002, China's economy will maintain strong growth this year and next. It is predicted that the annual growth rate will reach 7.5% in 200/kloc-0 and 7. 1% in 2002. The IMF predicts that China will not be affected by the global economic slowdown like other Asian countries, because the export of high-tech products accounts for only a small part of China's gross domestic product (GDP), which is far lower than that of other emerging Asian countries. The most optimistic forecast of other institutions for China's economic growth in 2002 is 7.7%, and the most pessimistic forecast is 6.5%. The following are the forecast data of global authoritative organizations for China's economic growth in 2002:
● Nomura Research Institute: China's GDP increased by 7.7% in 2002.
● Salomon Smith Barney: China's GDP increased by 7.6% in 2002.
● OECD: China's GDP increased by 7.2% in 2002.
● IMF: ● IMF: ●IMF:2002, China's GDP increased by 7. 1%.
● Asian Development Bank: China's GDP increased by 7.0% in 2002.
● Morgan Stanley: In 2002, China's GDP increased by 7.0%.
● World Bank: China's GDP increased by 6.5% in 2002.
The forecast of GDP growth in 2002 by the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center shows that there are three possibilities according to the strength of the national fiscal policy and monetary policy in 2002. The first possibility is that GDP will increase by 7% in the case of additional issuance of national debt (150 billion yuan) and unstable monetary policy; The second possibility is to increase the issuance scale of national debt to180 billion yuan, and at the same time, it is required that the growth of narrow money supply M 1 will not continue to decline, and GDP will increase by 7.5%; The third possibility is that the issuance scale of long-term construction bonds will reach 200 billion yuan, and the monetary policy will be relaxed, with M 1 growth 14.5% and GDP growth rate reaching 8%.
According to the forecast of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the State Planning Commission, China's economy can still achieve a growth rate of around 7% while maintaining the continuity, stability and necessary strength of the policy of expanding domestic demand. If the world economic situation rapidly turns to recovery, the negative impact of China's entry into WTO can be minimized, and the economic growth rate is expected to reach 200 1. On the contrary, the economic growth rate may be slightly lower than 200 1.
On the basis of comprehensive analysis of many favorable and unfavorable factors affecting economic growth in 2002, considering some uncertain factors, we predict that the GDP growth in 2002 is expected to remain at the level of 200 1, and the fluctuation range around the growth rate of 7% is estimated to be less than 0.5 percentage point, while the possibility of downward fluctuation is greater than that of upward fluctuation.
2.3 favorable factors for economic growth in 2002
1) As there are great uncertainties in the economic recovery of the United States and the prospects of the world economy, the continuous deterioration of the international investment environment will be very beneficial for China to attract foreign investment.
2) China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, and the domestic macroeconomic policy environment is conducive to economic growth. Judging from the national macro-policy, we will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy in 2002 to promote the stable growth of the national economy.
3) The implementation of the western development strategy is conducive to the growth of investment in fixed assets. At present, the strategy of developing the western region has entered the stage of substantive implementation, and the specific preferential policies formulated by the state for developing the western region are being gradually implemented. Combined with the tenth five-year plan of the country, key projects for the development of the western region, such as "West-to-East Gas Transmission", "West-to-East Power Transmission" and "South-to-North Water Transfer", have started. At the same time, the western region has also introduced some preferential policies with local characteristics to attract domestic and foreign investment, which will help promote the growth of investment in the western region.
4) The steady growth of final consumption will provide the basis of domestic demand for economic growth in 2002. The state's adjustment of residents' income policy is conducive to expanding residents' consumption, reducing rural fees and taxes, and increasing financial poverty alleviation expenditures and transfer payments are expected to increase farmers' income; Raising the basic salary of administrative institutions and increasing income, and establishing the minimum wage guarantee system in various provinces and cities will have a positive impact on the final consumption in 2002. At the same time, a series of tax policies and price policies issued by the state in 20001will show results in 2002. In addition, some consumption highlights gradually formed in recent years, such as holiday economy and residential consumption, will still be a positive force to stimulate consumption in 2002.
2.4 unfavorable factors of economic growth in 2002
1) The continuous decline of the world economy will have a negative impact on China's export trade. As China's dependence on foreign trade has reached a very high level, approaching 23. 1% last year, and nearly a quarter of its economic activities are related to the international market, the recession and instability of the global economy will make China's export trade situation extremely severe in 2002.
The forecast made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in mid-June 1 shows that the global economic growth rate of 5438+0 in 2006 is only 2.4%, while a report published by the United Nations in June 10 thinks that the global economic growth rate of 5438+0 in 2006 will be only1. The prospect of global economy in 2002 will mainly depend on the operation of major western economies, especially the American economy, which plays an important role in the world economy. At present, the American economic recession shows signs of slowing down. As the degree of economic recession is still moderate, the continuous 1 1 interest rate cut in the United States will gradually stimulate the economy, and it is more likely that the American economy will start to recover around the middle of next year. Many economists believe that favorable factors such as falling world oil prices, rising US consumer spending, enterprise inventory adjustment and the success of the war in Afghanistan will make it possible for the US economy to start to rebound in the coming months. While the American economy is experiencing economic recession, the economies of almost all regions in the world have experienced the most serious simultaneous decline in 20 years. According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the economic growth rate of the United States this year is 1%, and it will drop to 0.7% next year. This year, the EU's economic growth rate is 1.7%, and will slow down to 1.3% next year. Japan's economy fell by 0.4% this year and by 1% next year.
The World Bank's forecast of global economic growth is cautiously optimistic. Although the global economy is expected to start to recover in 2002, and the growth rate of developing countries is expected to increase from 2.9% of 200 1 to 3.7% in 2002, with the repeated interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus measures by the US Federal Reserve, American consumer spending will resume, while the European Union will cut interest rates and oil prices will fall. The world economy will grow at a rate of 1.6% in 2002, but the World Bank obviously lacks confidence in the recovery of the global economy. It believes that under the unstable global economic situation, any unexpected impact will be amplified, which may push the world economy into recession.
2) The institutional obstacles restricting the rebound of private investment have not been effectively solved. In 200 1 year, the government launched a series of measures to start private investment, but the results were not significant. 200 1 The growth rate of collective investment and individual investment in the first three quarters lags behind that of the state-owned economy, and is far lower than that of other economic types, especially the joint-stock economy. It is still doubtful whether several major problems affecting private investment in 2002 can be solved. The first is the investment system and mechanism, including the entry threshold of special industries, financing mechanism and tax system. The second is the unfavorable investment environment caused by the imbalance of economic structure. The imbalance of infrastructure investment structure, consumer goods investment structure and investment products investment structure has long restricted private investment.
3) It is possible to face the pressure of deflation again in 2002. Deflation is a macro-economic operation problem that has plagued China in recent years. After the deflation in 2000 and the first half of 20001year, since the fourth quarter of 20001year, the trend of various price indexes has dropped again. As the leading indicators of inflation, the price index of means of production and the ex-factory price index of industrial products turned from positive to negative in May and June of 200 1, which indicates that China's economic growth may encounter deflation again in 2002.
4) Other factors that have a negative impact on economic growth in 2002 include: unbalanced economic development between urban and rural areas and widening income gap between urban and rural areas; The pressure of laid-off workers is increasing, which affects residents' income expectation and consumer confidence. The current institutional reform of public institutions and local governments has made the problem of laid-off workers more prominent. Bad social atmosphere and corruption generally seriously affect the normal economic operation, and some deep-seated problems will restrict the economic growth in 2002 to some extent; The internal vitality and innovation ability of enterprise development are insufficient, and the micro-foundation of sustained and rapid economic growth is not perfect.
2.5 Uncertainties of economic growth in 2002
In 2002, there were at least the following uncertainties affecting China's economic growth: First, the world economic downturn had a double impact on China's economic growth. It will have a negative impact on China's exports, but it may accelerate China's net capital inflow. Second, after China's accession to the WTO, China's macroeconomic policies will be adjusted to conform to WTO rules. Because policy adjustment takes time, it is difficult to judge what impact this possible policy adjustment will have on China's economic growth. Third, after China's accession to the WTO, the trade between trade members and China will have a favorable impact on China's economy in the long run, but in the short run, China's accession to the WTO has both positive and negative effects, and it is difficult to judge which is the greater. Fourth, the process of marketization has been accelerated. It is difficult to predict whether the various factor markets can completely walk out of the traditional economic model in 2002 and whether the resource allocation can be truly marketized.
3 Macroeconomic policies
3. 1 As far as fiscal policy is concerned, the proactive fiscal policy continued to play an important role in 200 1 and achieved remarkable results. In 2002, it was still the most important driving force for economic growth, although its influence tended to weaken. At the same time, the necessity of active fiscal policy structure adjustment began to appear.
The proactive fiscal policy, which began at 1998, is a special policy adopted by China in a special period and an attempt of the government's counter-cyclical adjustment under the condition of market economy. Practice shows that this proactive fiscal policy has achieved great success. In order to consolidate the policy effect in the first three years, maintain the stability of economic policies and promote the sustained and healthy development of the national economy, China government continued to implement a proactive fiscal policy on 200 1. The main policy contents in 20001year include: issuing10 billion yuan construction bonds to make up for the lack of follow-up funds for infrastructure projects under construction in the early stage, and generally not starting new projects; Issue 50 billion yuan of special treasury bonds to support the development of the western region, mainly for major infrastructure construction such as west-to-east gas transmission, west-to-east electricity transmission, Qinghai-Tibet railway, South-to-North water transfer and ecological construction; We will continue to adjust the income distribution policy and raise the wages of employees in government agencies and institutions and pensions for retirees.
The proactive fiscal policy has played a vital role in maintaining China's economic growth rate above GDP, but at the same time, the proactive fiscal policy has also begun to be criticized. Criticism mainly focuses on two aspects. First, as a short-term policy, the proactive fiscal policy has been extended, and the positive effects of the policy of issuing additional treasury bonds have begun to weaken. According to the calculation of relevant persons (Zhang), in the second half of 1998, 65,438+100 billion construction bonds were issued, which boosted the GDP growth of that year by 1.5 percentage points; 1999 issued 1 1000 billion construction bonds, which boosted GDP growth by 2 percentage points in that year; In 2000, 654.38+050 billion construction bonds were issued, which only boosted the GDP growth of that year by 654.38+0.7 percentage points. Secondly, the tax policy aimed at increasing fiscal revenue began to have a negative impact on private investment and consumer demand. In recent years, the growth of fiscal revenue in China has greatly exceeded the growth of GDP. From October to September, 2002, the fiscal revenue reached11872.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%, which was more than three times the GDP. This extraordinary fiscal revenue growth is reasonable in the counter-cyclical policy, but it brings a heavy tax burden to enterprises, especially non-state-owned economies and farmers, and as a result, it directly reduces private investment and rural consumption.
Therefore, whether it is necessary to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy in 2002 is controversial in theoretical circles. Our view is that the proactive fiscal policy needs structural adjustment, but it should not be abolished. The international economic situation faced by China's economy in 2002 is not optimistic, which will lead to the grim export situation of China, and the growth of investment and consumption will also be restricted by many factors. It is difficult to maintain a high economic growth rate by relying on exports, private investment and final consumption, especially the trend of 200 1 China's economic growth, which shows that the proactive fiscal policy is still the key factor to achieve GDP growth of more than 7% in 2002 and should not be cancelled. The structural adjustment of active fiscal policy should mainly focus on two aspects. First, on the premise of maintaining a relatively high total scale of long-term construction bonds (6543.8+00 billion-6543.8+05 billion), adjust the investment direction of construction bonds, appropriately reduce infrastructure investment, and increase investment in enterprise technological transformation projects while ensuring the capital demand of projects under construction and necessary new infrastructure projects. Second, adjust and improve the current tax system, expand the pilot scope of rural tax and fee reform, effectively reduce farmers' tax burden, increase farmers' income, and stimulate rural consumption growth; Continue to promote the transformation of value-added tax from production to consumption, unify the income tax of domestic and foreign-funded enterprises, and mobilize the enthusiasm of enterprises for investment and consumption.
3.2 As far as financial policy is concerned, strengthening supervision, risk prevention and system construction are the main tone of China's financial policy in 20001year, among which the system construction of securities market and consumer credit policy are the highlights of this year's financial policy. The fiscal policy in 2002 should focus on three aspects: reforming the banking system, dredging the monetary transmission mechanism, appropriately increasing the money supply, and carefully formulating the policy of reducing and circulating state-owned shares.
In 200 1 year, China's monetary policy continued to implement the policy of expanding domestic demand, and remained relatively flexible while maintaining stability, which was manifested in the flexible use of various monetary policy tools to maintain a moderate increase in the money supply. However, the overall performance is more than enough, and its effect on 200 1 economic growth is not ideal. In terms of interest rate policy, the People's Bank of China raised the rediscount rate from 2. 16% to 2.97%, and the interest rate on foreign currency deposits has been lowered for nine consecutive times since 2000. From/KLOC-0 to-August this year, the foreign currency deposit interest rate has been adjusted seven times, and the one-year US dollar deposit interest rate has been lowered from 5% to 2%, which is 0.25 percentage points lower than the one-year RMB deposit interest rate. Another important performance of interest rate policy is that the open market operates the bidding rate to become currency. The outstanding performance of credit policy is to increase the support for consumer credit, which makes consumer credit develop rapidly at 200 1. By the end of August, the balance of consumer credit had reached 611500 million yuan, a cumulative increase of188 billion yuan, an increase of 58.3 billion yuan year-on-year.
It is necessary to reflect and adjust the gains and losses of monetary policy in 200 1. In the case that the reform of state-owned enterprises has not been completed, financial supervision is ahead of the adjustment of China's economic structure, and it overemphasizes financial risks, which leads to the failure of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and the serious shortage of money supply, which cannot meet the needs of current economic growth. Monetary policy in 2002 faced at least two challenges. First, there is a lack of coordination between monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy. The pressure of deflation still exists, which leads to the high real interest rate, which seriously inhibits the rapid growth of private investment and limits the driving force and influence of government investment on social funds. From the perspective of capital supply and demand, the deposit-loan gap of 200 1 has further widened, and the growth rate of money supply at all levels has slowed down. In particular, the growth rate of MI has dropped significantly compared with the same period of last year. 200 1 10, M0 increased by 66%, which was 33 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, and M 1 growth 123% was 37 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, and neither index reached the target value set at the beginning of the year. Second, since September 20065438 and June 200 10/0, it has been difficult for banks to lend money and the money supply has declined. 1 1 At the end of the year, the loan balance of all financial institutions was 1 1 trillion yuan, only increasing by10.9% according to comparable caliber; From June to September, the monetary liquidity ratio (M 1/m2) was 37.2%, which was lower than that at the beginning of the year, indicating that the monetary liquidity was weakening. Since the low interest rate policy of RMB has been maintained for quite a long time, there is little room for interest rate reduction policy in 2002, which may even lead to interest rate falling into a "liquidity trap".
We believe that the focus of monetary policy in 2002 should be to continue to promote the reform of the commercial bank system, promote the marketization of interest rates and play its macro-control role. It is suggested to relax financial supervision moderately and actively dredge the monetary transmission mechanism. Because the reform of the banking system is related to the normal operation of the monetary transmission mechanism, it is necessary to solve the problems of non-performing assets and more deposits and less loans in commercial banks through the reform of the internal banking system and the reconstruction of the operational mechanism. In terms of interest rate policy, in 2002, when there is limited room for lowering the loan interest rate, we should greatly increase the money supply and reduce the real interest rate, so as to create conditions for the start and growth of social private investment.
Compared with the mediocre performance of monetary policy, 200 1 financial policy has achieved remarkable results in the institutional construction of capital market. In 200 1 year, the securities market successively issued a series of major policies and measures, including opening the B-share market to domestic investors, making the B-share market an attractive investment place again and restoring its function of raising capital; The implementation of the transformation from examination and approval system to approval system has made the securities market take a revolutionary step from a market with strong planned economy to marketization; However, the delisting system of listed companies, the introduction of open-end funds, the strengthening of supervision and crackdown on the behavior of market participants and the implementation of the policy of reducing state-owned shares have made the securities market change from micro-system to market rules in an all-round way, thus laying the foundation for the internationalization of the securities market.
In 2002, the policy of the securities market will focus on supervision and pay attention to the stability of the market. Among them, the reduction of state-owned shares and the circulation policy will have a wide and far-reaching impact on the securities market in 2002, and we are cautiously optimistic about this.