Although the Ukrainian crisis is ostensibly a military and political confrontation, it is impossible to fully understand the conflict between the United States and Russia without applying economic theories, especially game theory. The following provides several perspectives for thinking:
Nuclear deterrence: According to the game theory of thomas schelling, winner of the 2005 Nobel Prize in Economics, this conflict can be understood in the framework of nuclear deterrence. 1990 after the disintegration of the Soviet union, Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons inherited from the Soviet union in exchange for territorial integrity, which was signed by Russia and the United States.
(Note: After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited 1 000 nuclear warheads from the Soviet Union and became the third nuclear power in the world at that time. But then Ukraine reached an agreement with the United States and Russia to destroy its nuclear warheads in exchange for their commitment to its territorial integrity. The United States promises to protect Ukrainian territory when it is threatened by Russia. )
At that time, Ukraine seemed to have done the right thing to make the world safer. However, looking back now, if Ukraine was still a nuclear power, it would obviously not appear so powerless in front of Russia.
Critical point: Schelling established a critical point model in his book Micro Motivation and Macro Behavior. This theory applies not only to war, but also to economy, conflicts between neighboring countries and other domestic problems. In the Ukrainian incident, the incident developed from a negotiated settlement to a political conflict. Now, the events in Crimea have further deepened the situation and brought the world to a very dangerous tipping point.
First of all, introduce the background: except for the former Yugoslavia and Georgia, Eastern Europe after the disintegration of the Soviet Union is generally peaceful. The redrawing of borders is more orderly, and political transactions are also based on the rational assessment of national interests by leaders of various countries.
Jay Ulf, a political scientist, recently pointed out in his blog that in the past 25 years, there have been fewer military conflicts around the world than expected. But recently, it has become more and more difficult to resolve conflicts peacefully. This change may be just a statistical random event, but it is more likely that there may be more and more conflicts.