Analyze the countermeasures to solve the problems of unemployment and inflation in China at present.
Inflation in China is not demand-driven inflation caused by overheating, so it should not be dealt with by a sharp economic slowdown. The reason for the high unemployment rate in China is that China's labor market is imperfect, and the labor force's viability is poor, which can't keep up with the pace of technological progress. In addition, the current social security mechanism in China is not perfect, which makes it less likely for the labor force to find a job that matches their own abilities. Therefore, we can't simply consider economic growth to deal with unemployment. 4. 1 The government's short-term response policies should focus on monetary tightening, RMB appreciation and food subsidies. First of all, RMB appreciation should be used to deal with imported inflation. In the international market, the prices of commodities, soybeans and other imported products on which China depends are soaring. In the case of significant imported inflation, RMB appreciation is one of the important tools to deal with inflation, and appreciation itself is also a means of monetary tightening. Our empirical analysis shows that every appreciation of RMB 10% can reduce inflation by 0.8 percentage points in the short term and 3.2 percentage points in the long term, while other conditions remain unchanged. Secondly, fiscal policy should deal with food inflation, including food subsidies to consumers and subsidies to grain farmers. In order to cope with food inflation, we should not only subsidize urban consumers, but also subsidize farmers to grow grain, including subsidies for pesticides, farm tools and fertilizers, encourage them to grow grain and improve food supply. This is the correct way to solve the pressure of rising grain prices in the medium and long term. Third, the monetary tightening policy. Controlling loans, further increasing the deposit reserve ratio and strengthening hedging will be the main tightening measures, and the space for raising interest rates is restricted by the increasingly relaxed international monetary environment. Finally, import food to solve the short-term supply problem. At present, except the price of wheat, the prices of corn, soybeans and other grains in the world are obviously lower than those in China. In the short term, China can increase imports and sell them to the domestic market at subsidized prices to curb short-term inflation expectations. These are short-term policies. In the long run, the government should improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism as soon as possible to give full play to the macro-control effect of monetary policy. Levy property tax, straighten out the financial relationship between the central and local governments, and effectively curb the rise of land prices; Continue to subsidize grain production. Of course, the dollar will bottom out in the future, commodity prices are expected to fall, and the pressure of imported inflation will be eased. In addition, we don't think that inflation in China is demand-driven inflation caused by economic overheating. Some people suggested that China should significantly slow down the economy, slow down the demand and control inflation by "braking" the economy, but we think it is not advisable. China should not take excessive administrative control and economic slowdown to deal with inflation, especially considering that the external environment will obviously be unfavorable to China's exports. Finally, some current price controls are expedient measures. Price control may make the inflation rate lower than our forecast, so the possibility of raising interest rates under price control is also reduced. But price control may lead to supply shortages and black market transactions. In addition, it is very important that who will pay for price control? Business or government? Energy producers damaged by price control will receive government subsidies, otherwise it will lead to supply shortage. And the shortage is more serious inflation. 4.2 To solve the unemployment problem in the long run, we must first speed up the pace of development, intensify reform, and solve the unemployment problem in the process of reform by means of development. Paying equal attention to economic growth and employment growth is the fundamental policy to expand employment. Secondly, appropriately reduce the labor supply, overcome the current peak of institutional unemployment, appropriately control the population, and reduce the labor participation rate; Third, vigorously develop basic education and vocational training to improve the quality of workers in an all-round way. Finally, develop labor-intensive industries and non-public economy to promote the sustained growth of employment. In the short term, efforts should be made to advocate flexible and diverse forms of employment; Coordinating urban and rural employment, developing rural economy and weakening the impact of rural surplus labor on urban employment; Continue to take advantage of the favorable opportunity to deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises and the marketization of labor and employment, and implement the merger of the laid-off system and the unemployment relief system; Strengthen the reform of the employment system for college graduates and the higher education system, eliminate the institutional and policy obstacles that affect the employment of college students, and promote the employment of college students. Finally, improve the macro-management of the labor market, and establish an employment management index system and an unemployment early warning system that adapt to the national conditions and international experience.