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the new economic norm in china
At present, China's economy has entered a "new normal" and its economic growth has entered a controllable and relatively balanced operating range. Under the combined effect of weak external demand, declining domestic demand, real estate adjustment and deep-seated structural changes, the downward pressure on the economy has intensified. However, the "new normal" is not only difficulties, challenges and risks. The new normal has not changed the judgment that China's development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities, but has changed the connotation and conditions of the important period of strategic opportunities. It has not changed the fundamentals of China's overall economic development, but only changed the mode of economic development and economic structure. Therefore, the "new normal" of China's economy is pregnant with a great opportunity for a rising country to embrace the new economic system. First, the opportunity for major reform and adjustment. The international financial crisis in 2008 not only exposed the huge structural problems faced by the world economy, but also declared the end of China's traditional growth model embedded in the world economic structure. High energy consumption and pollution caused by high investment, social and economic contradictions caused by income distribution gap, and insufficient innovation caused by excessive regulation have become stumbling blocks for China to achieve national prosperity, people's prosperity and national rejuvenation. People deeply realize that great reform and adjustment are the only choice to reconstruct the cornerstone of China's social and economic development. The formation of this understanding of "great reform" and "great adjustment" is the greatest gift that the "new normal" brings to China's next round of economic development, and it gives China a good opportunity in the tide of global structural reform. Second, big consumption, big market and the opportunity to build a "big country economic effect". While China's GDP ranks second in the world, its market share and consumption scale have also greatly increased. China's demand has become the most important determinant of the world's demand, and the "big country economic effect" has begun to appear in an all-round way. First, there are comprehensive scale effects and scope effects in the market, and the improvement of production efficiency effectively counteracts the rise of various costs, so that China's share in the world market has not declined; Secondly, consumption has started to rise. China's consumption scale is still growing at an average annual rate of 13%, and China has begun to change from a "world factory" to a "world market". Third, China's "world factory" began to connect with China's "world market", which greatly improved the stability of China's economy and its ability to resist world economic fluctuations under the integration of domestic and foreign trade. Third, "great depth" and the opportunity to build a diversified growth pole. Although by the end of 20 14, China's industrial structure indicators have marked the beginning of China's economic transformation to the post-industrialization stage, and the industrialization dividend has begun to fail. However, we must see the depth and breadth of China's economy, that is, although the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin regions have begun to be fully driven by the service industry, the industrialization of the vast central and western regions and Northeast regions is still in the middle stage of rapid development. This not only provides an effective space for industrial upgrading in the east, but also provides an opportunity for accelerating the development of the central and western regions. Therefore, the gradient transfer of China industry not only greatly delayed the decline of industrialization dividend in China, but also made the spatial layout of China more scientific by constructing diversified growth poles. Fourth, "great talents" and the opportunity to build the second demographic dividend. The arrival of lewis turning point and the approach of an aging society mean that the traditional demographic dividend in China begins to fade. However, it must be noted that the current problems of "difficulty in recruiting workers" and "expensive employment" are mainly in the field of migrant workers. The employment pattern in China is that "the difficulty of college students' employment" and "the shortage of migrant workers" coexist. The graduation pressure of more than 7 million college students every year makes the starting salary of college students and the average salary of migrant workers begin to level off. This is precisely the key to China's transition from a populous country to a powerful country in human resources, which shows that a large number of people with higher education have prepared a large number of high-quality and low-cost industrial reserve forces for China's industrial upgrading. The second demographic dividend centered on college students and human resources began to replace the traditional demographic dividend centered on migrant workers and low-end labor. Fifth, "great innovation" and the opportunity to build a technology dividend. Carefully combing the indicators of China's scientific and technological innovation development, we will find that while the extensive development model has come to an end, China's innovative development model has emerged: First, the number of patent applications has increased significantly, reaching 2.577 million in 20 13 years, with a growth rate of 15.9%, accounting for 32. 1% of the world total, ranking first in the world; The second is research and development; D expenditure broke through the low-level threshold, reaching 2.09% of GDP in 20 14 years, and the growth rate reached 12.4%, entering the high-speed and medium-intensity stage; Third, the activity of the technology market has been greatly improved. In 20 13 years, the technology market turnover reached 746.9 billion yuan, with an increase rate of 16%. Fourth, the export of high-tech products has increased substantially, reaching a total of 660.3 billion US dollars, accounting for 30% of the total export; Fifth, the number of scientific papers published abroad in 20 13 was close to 300,000, ranking among the major scientific papers in the world. Sixth, China has the largest number of scientific and technical researchers in the world. These parameters show that as long as we further reform the scientific and technological system and encourage various innovative and entrepreneurial activities, China's scientific and technological innovation dividend will be gradually realized. "Made in China" began to transform into "China Innovation", from labor-intensive manufacturing to knowledge-intensive industries. Sixth, the "big upgrade" and the opportunity to build an upgraded version of China's economy. Under the influence of market, technology and manpower, China's economy began to upgrade in an all-round way: First, when the per capita GDP was close to 8,000 US dollars, consumption began to upgrade sharply, and it began to shift from industrial consumption with food and clothing as the main body in the past 30 years to post-industrial consumption with high-end manufactured goods and services as the main consumption; Second, driven by demand, industry began to shift from manufacturing to service industry, and from labor-intensive industries to knowledge-and technology-intensive industries. The embryonic form of China's upgraded economy began to appear. Seventh, "Great Opening-up" and the opportunity of China's global economic layout. The international financial crisis in 2008 brought about the overall improvement of China's economic strength and the changes in the global economic structure, which gave China unprecedented opportunities for opening up and global distribution. First, China began to shift from "commodity export era" to a more advanced "capital export era", and overseas mergers and acquisitions made rapid progress, with an average growth rate of over 30%. In 20 14 years, the total foreign investment exceeded 1000 billion USD; The second is to comprehensively strengthen the plate effect of China's opening up with the construction of regional free trade zones; The third is to take the "Belt and Road" as the core, realize the comprehensive docking of China's space strategy and opening strategy, and create a new pattern of international cooperation in China through interconnection; Fourth, through the construction of international financial institutions such as BRICS Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Silk Road Fund, the pattern of unifying international finance in Europe and America will be broken. These expansions have effectively expanded the space of China's resource allocation and profit model, and will surely make China's development enter a new stage. Of course, to grasp the above seven opportunities and turn various strategic opportunities into real growth and development, it is necessary not only to effectively solve various problems and challenges faced by the "new normal", but also to build an institutional system suitable for the next round of economic development on the basis of comprehensively deepening reforms.