At present, with the rapid development of China's economy and the increasing economic strength, RMB is facing severe appreciation pressure in the international market, and the appreciation of RMB will inevitably have a certain impact on the development of China's foreign trade. On the basis of understanding the background, reasons and process of RMB appreciation, this paper focuses on the positive and negative effects of RMB appreciation on China's foreign trade, and then discusses the countermeasures and measures of RMB appreciation to promote the healthy and orderly development of China's foreign trade.
Keywords: RMB appreciation; Foreign trade; Trade structure
I. Overview of RMB appreciation
(A) the background and reasons for RMB appreciation
Since 2003, China's economy has maintained a high growth rate of more than 10% for five consecutive years, which is very rare in the world. Especially with the continuous expansion of China's huge trade surplus and the continuous growth of foreign exchange reserves, China has been under great pressure from the international community headed by the United States to strongly demand RMB appreciation.
It can be said that RMB exchange rate has not been adjusted for nearly 10 years since 1994, and China's economy and national strength have undergone profound changes in this 10 year. Since 1990s, some authoritative international institutions and trading partners have always believed that RMB is undervalued to varying degrees. At the same time, according to the theory of international economics, the excessive foreign exchange surplus itself indicates that the foreign currency is overpriced and the local currency is underpriced, and the local currency is facing the pressure of appreciation.
Since 200 1, all the major currencies in the world, including those of Southeast Asian countries, have greatly appreciated against the US dollar. Only the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has not been adjusted, that is, the RMB actually depreciates with the US dollar against other currencies. For the United States, the depreciation of the dollar can not only reduce its foreign debt burden, but also reduce the debt of13 every time the dollar depreciates sharply, stimulate its product exports, and pass on its various economic crises, which has become the main form of its exploitation of other countries. However, China's "pegged exchange rate" policy failed to give full play to the positive role of the depreciation of the US dollar, but only "greatly enhanced the export competitiveness of China enterprises and stimulated the export of China products". According to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs of China, the trade surplus between China and the United States reached $654.38+044.26 billion in 2006 and $654.38+063.32 billion in 2007. The huge trade surplus between China and the United States has hit record highs, which makes the United States, the world's number one power, deeply feel the tremendous pressure brought by China's economic growth. As a result, the United States "blackmailed" China on the grounds that China workers robbed American workers of their jobs and the huge trade surplus caused them losses, in an attempt to let the RMB appreciate. In fact, the reasons for the sharp increase in the US foreign trade deficit are various and complicated, not China's own RMB exchange rate policy, such as China's labor price advantage, China's rapid economic development, multinational companies' covetousness of China market, but also the comprehensive effects of various factors such as the adjustment of American industrial structure, the expansion of foreign direct investment, and the growth of personal consumption expenditure. For example, American companies open factories in China and then export finished products to the United States. On the surface, the United States has suffered, but in fact, American companies have really benefited the most. It is not difficult to see that the fundamental purpose of the RMB exchange rate dispute is that the United States hopes to prevent China goods from entering the United States on a large scale through RMB appreciation.
We know that the RMB exchange rate issue is not only a simple economic issue, but also a complex international political issue. Some western countries even echoed the frequent calls of the United States for RMB appreciation. Of course, their purposes are different, some are out of jealousy, some are to divert domestic accusations against the authorities, and some are to win votes from domestic manufacturing industries. They think that the RMB exchange rate is too low, and suggest that the RMB exchange rate should be set at around 1 USD against RMB in 4.2 yuan. China's foreign exchange reserves are too high. Since China joined the WTO, there has been no sharp increase in imports. On the contrary, the trade surplus has greatly increased. China's massive export of cheap goods has been accused of causing deflation in the world. China should let the RMB appreciate and take corresponding responsibilities in the world economy.
In recent years, the discussion about "Asian dollar" has become more and more hot, and who can become the leader of Asian dollar in the future has become an increasingly sensitive topic. As Japan's economy has been in recession for ten years, it is less and less likely that the yen will become the dominant currency in Asia. Due to the rapid economic growth, China has gradually become the "locomotive" of Asian economic development and the "engine" of world economic development. Therefore, the value of RMB is becoming more and more obvious, and the countries around China have begun to form a "RMB zone", which has aroused Japanese anxiety. Against the background of Japan's surplus of $5 billion with China in 2002, Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa proposed a motion to ask the G-7 to adopt "a document similar to the 1985 agreement on the Yen Plaza" to force the appreciation of the RMB, so as to push the global voice of suppressing the appreciation of the RMB to the peak, with the aim of defeating the challenge of the RMB to the yen through the appreciation of the RMB and ensuring the dominant position of the yen in the future.
In order to ensure China's long-term stable and rapid economic development, ease China's increasing external economic friction and create a harmonious international political environment, China has reformed the RMB exchange rate system, and the pace of RMB appreciation has gradually accelerated.
(B) the process of RMB appreciation
On July 2 1 2005, under the strong pressure of the United States, in order to create a good external environment for China's economic development, the China government finally made the decision of RMB appreciation. From 8.27 to 8.28, USD 1 broke through 8.2, 8. 1 and 8.0 successively, and the appreciation rate reached 3% in 2005.
In 2006, the RMB made great strides all the way. On June 4, 2006, the central parity of RMB exchange rate started from 8.0702, and the RMB exchange rate experienced a process from slow upward to rapid operation, and then to "accelerated operation". According to the central parity of the exchange rate of 7.8087 65438 on February 29th, the RMB appreciated by 26 15 basis points this year. The quotation of June 5438+1October 4, 2006 is exactly the same as the last trading day of last year. Since that day, inquiry trading, the international mainstream trading mechanism, has been introduced into China, revealing the major reform of foreign exchange trading mode and RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and the central parity of RMB exchange rate has also been given a more market-oriented formation mode. This year, the RMB exchange rate is bound to operate in a more flexible way. On May 5, 2006, the central parity of RMB exchange rate broke through 1 USD against RMB in 8 yuan for the first time. In the next two months, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated around this important mark. On July 20th, the central parity of RMB exchange rate once again "broke 8", and went down all the way, bidding farewell to this key position. It broke 7.96 on August 30th, 7.90 on September 28th, and/kloc-0 broke 7.88 on October 30th. The following month, the RMB exchange rate broke through 7.87, 7.86, 7.85 and 165438+7.84 on1October 29th, and the central parity of RMB exchange rate broke through 7.83,65438 on February 4th, a new high since the reform. 12 14, on the day of the first China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue, the central parity of RMB exchange rate exceeded 7.82 for the first time. The next day, the central parity of RMB exchange rate reached a new high, at 7.8 185. Judging from the data of the day, the RMB has appreciated by more than 3.72% after the exchange rate reform. 65438+February 29th, the RMB exchange rate reached a new high since the reform of foreign exchange earning, breaking through the 7.8 1 mark for the first time, reaching 7.8074. According to the data of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the monthly average exchange rate of RMB in 2006 has appreciated from 8.0688 in June 5438 to 7.8652 in June 5438 +065438+ 10. Since the second quarter of 2006, the American economic engine has obviously slowed down, and the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has increased, which has led to the overall weakening of the US dollar in the international exchange market, which has led to the continuous rise of the RMB exchange rate. On the other hand, in June, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded 1 trillion US dollars, while the accumulated trade surplus in the previous month of 10 has reached133.6 billion US dollars, all of which have become an important driving factor for RMB appreciation.
At the beginning of 2007, the consensus expectation of the market was that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar would appreciate by about 5% during the year. In fact, as of February 20th, 65438, the appreciation of RMB has reached 6.0 1%. From1October 4th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 65438+7.8073 on the first trading day at the beginning of the year to 7.6 155 on the last trading day in the first half of the year, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by 2.46% in the past six months. On July 2, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.6 1 mark, and the next day it broke through the 7.6 integer mark. 165438+1From October 22nd to 27th, the central parity of RMB exchange rate hit a new high for four consecutive trading days. 65438+February 1 1 to 13 Affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the third China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar broke through 7.38, 7.37 and 7.36 continuously, and the appreciation speed was obviously accelerated. Economic experts believe that the main driving force of RMB's continuous appreciation in 2007 comes from the increasing trade surplus and the strong growth momentum of foreign investment.
Since the beginning of this year, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has further accelerated. According to the latest data released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center authorized by the People's Bank of China, on April 10, 2008, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar "broke 7" for the first time, reaching 6.9920 RMB pairs 1 US dollar. The central parity of RMB against the US dollar reached a new high. Based on the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar of 8.2765 1 before the exchange rate reform in 2005, the cumulative appreciation of RMB against the US dollar now exceeds 18%. In other words, the same exchange of $65,438 +0 can now save RMB 65,438 +0.2845.
No one can say what the future trend will be, but one thing is certain, that is, there is still room for appreciation of the RMB for some time.
Second, the impact of RMB appreciation on China's foreign trade
(A) the positive impact of RMB appreciation on China's foreign trade
1. is conducive to reducing import costs.
With the appreciation of RMB, the prices of foreign energy, raw materials and means of production are relatively cheap, which reduces the procurement cost of introducing foreign advanced technology, equipment and many important strategic materials and enhances purchasing power. In China, the industries with high import dependence mainly include oil, natural gas, aviation and electric equipment. The appreciation of RMB will reduce the import cost of bulk transactions, thus enhancing the profitability of related industries and improving the competitiveness of products.
For a long time, our country has pursued the export-oriented economic development strategy of "making great progress and making great progress, leaving both ends outside". The total processing trade exceeds the general trade volume, and the processing trade surplus has become the most important source of China's foreign trade surplus. In processing trade, the proportion of import cost to product re-export cost is generally between 50%- 100%, which is sensitive to the price of imported goods in the short term. If RMB appreciates, the local currency price of imported goods will decrease, which will lead to lower production cost of processing trade and lower foreign currency price of export goods of processing trade. Therefore, this part of the re-export goods that rely on imported raw materials still have certain international competitiveness. It can be seen that the appreciation of RMB will promote the increase of imports, and imports will drive exports, and the correlation will be strengthened.
2. It is conducive to promoting the optimization and upgrading of the trade structure.
For a long time, China's foreign trade has implemented an export-oriented strategy of "emphasizing exports and neglecting imports". The implementation of this strategy has greatly promoted China's economic growth, but at the same time, it has also produced excessive dependence on exports, which not only exposes China's economic growth and employment to potential risks, but also produces enterprises' excessive dependence on cheap labor to export at a price advantage. The unilateral trade surplus has caused frequent anti-dumping lawsuits in other countries. Low cost and low market access in labor-intensive export industries lead to oversupply of investment and vicious competition among enterprises at low prices; And export trade and employment are easily affected by fluctuations in the international economic situation. These problems and contradictions are caused by only paying attention to prices and ignoring international market demand. It can be seen that this foreign trade structure that relies on export for a long time is very unreasonable. The appreciation of RMB will inevitably lead to a certain degree of export reduction and import increase, which can change the imbalance of China's import and export trade structure.
In China, the growth mode of foreign trade mainly depends on exporting labor-intensive products, while high-tech equipment, intermediate inputs and other production factors that truly reflect the technical level and factor content must be imported from abroad, which has low economic benefits. The appreciation of RMB will encourage export enterprises to rely more on technological progress and increase added value, instead of occupying the market by low-price competition. The appreciation of RMB will make some enterprises that only rely on low-cost competition, low technology content, high pollution and high energy consumption be squeezed out of the market. In the long run, the appreciation of RMB will help China's foreign trade growth mode change from extensive to high-quality, efficient and intensive, and bring about the improvement of export structure, which is in line with the development direction of China's industrial structure transformation. At the same time, the appreciation of RMB will lead to more intense competition in the industry, which will prompt enterprises to improve their international competitiveness through independent research and development and technological innovation. It can be seen that the appreciation of RMB is of great significance to promote the optimization and upgrading of China's foreign trade structure, stimulate independent innovation of domestic enterprises and realize sustainable development.
3. Conducive to easing trade friction.
According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China's foreign trade surplus reached a record high in 2007, reaching US$ 262.2 billion, up 47.7% from US$177.47 billion in 2006, ranking first in the world. China's total foreign trade exceeded the $2 trillion mark for the first time, reaching $2 1.738 billion, up by 23.5% over 2006. Among them, exports1218 billion USD, up by 25.7% over the previous year; Imports reached US$ 955.8 billion, up by 20.8% over the previous year. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, since China joined the WTO at the end of 20001,the foreign trade of has increased by more than 20% for six consecutive years, and the total value of foreign trade in 2007 was 4.26 times higher than that of 200 1 year. However, the growth rate of China's foreign trade surplus far exceeds the growth rate of the total trade value, and the trade surplus in 2007 increased by 1 1.6 times compared with 2006. The excessive growth of foreign trade surplus has aggravated the trade friction between China and the major trading partners such as the European Union and the United States. In 2007, the EU repeatedly expressed the hope that China would accelerate the appreciation of RMB to reduce the trade surplus between China and Europe. In 2007, the US Congress proposed more than 50 trade protection bills against China. Although most of these bills failed to become law because of the opposition of the US government, they still increased the tension of trade relations between the two countries.
The appreciation of RMB can increase China's total imports and reduce the value of its trade surplus. Appropriately raising the foreign currency price of export products through the appreciation of RMB will help to reduce the low-price dumping litigation of China products by other countries. Low-price competition and export are restricted. Slowing down exports and increasing imports will help to weaken the momentum of expanding China's trade surplus and reduce the excuses for some trading partners to carry out protectionist trade attacks on China. A proper appreciation of RMB will help to ease the relationship between China and its major trading partners, reduce economic and trade disputes, promote the harmonious development of China's economy and trade, and create and maintain a more stable trade environment.
4. Conducive to improving the terms of trade
In international economics, terms of trade = export price index/import price index, and the improvement of terms of trade means that the same amount of goods can be exported in exchange for more imported goods. Although China has a large trade surplus every year, due to the falling prices of export commodities and the continuous deterioration of terms of trade, it needs to export a large number of labor-intensive products in exchange for a small number of foreign high-tech products or scarce resources. After the appreciation of RMB, the price of export products will increase relatively, and less export products can be exchanged for various products that China needs. Increasing export profits can improve China's current terms of trade. At the same time, the appreciation of RMB will also reduce the prices of imported products, especially the prices of raw materials and high-tech equipment. Enterprises will speed up the introduction of technology, improve production efficiency and realize the dynamic comparison and upgrading of products. At the same time, because most of the imported products are used for re-export, with the improvement of enterprise productivity, the quality of export products will be improved, which will help China enterprises to extend from the low end of the product industrial chain to the high end and improve the terms of trade.
5. It is beneficial for China enterprises to "go global".
The appreciation of RMB means that the cost of overseas investment of China enterprises is relatively reduced, which enables them to invest and set up factories abroad and engage in transnational operations at a lower cost. According to the location advantage of the investment place, make full use of global resources, reduce production and transaction costs, realize economies of scale and establish a global production and sales network. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB is beneficial for those powerful China enterprises to "go global", realize the global development strategy and build truly internationally competitive multinational companies in China.
(B) the negative impact of RMB appreciation on China's foreign trade
1. Weakening the international competitiveness of China's export commodities is not conducive to the growth of China's foreign trade exports.
The appreciation of RMB will increase the foreign currency price of China's export commodities and directly weaken the price competitive advantage of China's export. After the appreciation of RMB, in order to maintain a certain profit, export enterprises must raise the selling price of commodities in foreign markets, which will inevitably weaken the international competitiveness of China's export commodities and is not conducive to the continuous expansion of exports and the improvement of its share in the international market. In particular, China's exports are mainly labor-intensive commodities with low scientific and technological content and added value. Once the price of export commodities in foreign markets increases, the low-price advantage of these low-end products will be lost and easily replaced by some Southeast Asian countries, thus affecting the expansion of export scale. However, if the international market price of export commodities remains unchanged, it will inevitably squeeze the profit space of export enterprises, and the reduction of export profits will seriously hit the enthusiasm of domestic export enterprises, leading to a decrease in the number of exports, which will have a certain impact on China's foreign trade exports. However, the impact of RMB appreciation on China's exports is limited, because it is also restricted by some other external factors, such as domestic and international economic situation, export commodity structure and trade mode.
2. Seriously impact the export industries with low technology content and low price.
Obviously, the export industries that rely too much on export trade, have low export price elasticity and low technology content will be greatly impacted in the process of RMB appreciation, and may even be eliminated in the fierce market competition if they are not prepared in advance. China's major export-oriented industries, such as textiles, clothing, household appliances, chemicals, and electronic machinery manufacturing, all belong to this type. Among them, the textile and clothing industry is highly dependent on export trade, and its added value and export price elasticity are very small, so it is most affected by the appreciation of RMB. According to public information, for every appreciation of RMB 1%, the profit margins of cotton textile, wool textile and garment industries will decrease by 3. 19%, 2.27% and 6. 18% respectively. Take the clothing industry as an example. At present, the gross profit of most foreign trade clothing orders is 0.5 yuan RMB, that is, the products exported by 1 USD are 0.5 yuan RMB. If the RMB appreciates slightly by 2% against the US dollar, it means that the gross profit of foreign trade enterprises will lose 0. 1 USD per product exported. It can be seen that it is of great significance to accelerate the optimization and upgrading of China's foreign trade export structure.
3. The increase of foreign commodity imports and the intensification of competition are not conducive to the development of domestic enterprises.
After the appreciation of RMB, the domestic sales price of imported goods will decrease, and domestic consumers can buy more imported goods with the same currency. This will seriously affect the survival and development of domestic related production enterprises, especially those that are still far behind the world advanced level in terms of quality, brand and technical content, and may even be eliminated in fierce market competition, which is not conducive to the economic growth and market share of domestic enterprises in the short term, but in the long run, competition is conducive to the rapid development of domestic enterprises.
4. Increase the domestic employment pressure in China.
At present, most of China's export commodities are labor-intensive products with low technology content and low added value. With the appreciation of RMB, the export of labor-intensive products is weakened, which leads to the decline of profits of processing and export enterprises that can absorb a large number of labor. After these enterprises invest in technology or capital-intensive industries, many employees with low quality will inevitably face unemployment crisis. At present, most of the new employment opportunities in China are provided by export and foreign trade enterprises. The appreciation of RMB affects exports and foreign direct investment, which in turn has a certain impact on the improvement of the current employment environment. At present, in China, labor resources have not been transformed into human resources, and only skilled workers have advantages. Therefore, developing processing trade, focusing on improving industrial level and processing depth, enhancing domestic supporting capacity, and relying on the advantages of China's labor force to develop processing trade will remain China's long-term economic content.
Three. Strategies and measures for RMB appreciation
In view of the impact of RMB appreciation on China's foreign trade, we should take corresponding measures to strengthen and expand the positive impact of RMB appreciation on China's foreign trade development and mitigate and reduce its negative impact.
(1) Gradually promote and improve the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.
Before the reform of RMB exchange rate, the undervalued RMB exchange rate led to the distortion of domestic and foreign commodity prices, low export prices and high import prices, which led to the increase of China's export volume and trade surplus for a long time, resulting in huge trade surplus year after year and frequent trade frictions with trading partners.
Since July 2, 2005, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and with reference to a basket of currencies. This new exchange rate formation mechanism will have a certain impact on economic growth and employment in the short term. But overall, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. We should actively and steadily promote the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and gradually improve the marketization of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, so as to make RMB exchange rate fluctuations more flexible and reflect market supply and demand changes better. Strengthen the coordination of local and foreign currency policies, give full play to the role of exchange rate in balancing international payments and resisting the impact of international capital flows, and meet the requirements of opening up and the development of market economy. In a word, the RMB exchange rate reform should proceed from China's economic needs, consider the trade with trading partners and the economic interests of both sides, and achieve a win-win situation.
(2) Actively expand domestic market demand and reduce dependence on foreign trade and exports.
For a long time in the past, due to the relative undervaluation of RMB exchange rate, China's foreign trade continued to have a huge surplus. Many enterprises are eager for export trade, which leads to a large influx of production factors such as capital and labor into the export field, and social resources cannot be optimally allocated according to the market, thus causing the situation that China's economic domestic demand is insufficient but it relies too much on foreign trade exports, which is very unfavorable to the long-term stable and sustainable development of China's economy. China has a population of 654.38+0.3 billion, and there is a huge domestic consumer market behind the huge population. To truly realize the sustainable development of China's economy, it is necessary to adjust the economic structure, reduce the dependence on foreign trade exports, realize the transformation from "export-oriented" economic development strategy to "domestic demand-oriented" sustainable development strategy as soon as possible, and establish a correct and scientific development concept. At the same time, the government should take effective measures to carry out various supporting reforms, actively cultivate and expand the domestic consumer market, encourage investment, especially private investment, and focus on supporting enterprises with core competitiveness.
(3) Optimize and upgrade China's foreign trade structure, and improve the technical content and added value of export products.
For a long time, labor and resource-intensive products with low added value and low technology content have dominated China's export products. Because most of China's export enterprises are engaged in processing trade with low technical content and added value, and workers are also engaged in repetitive and skilled labor, the profit margin is greatly limited. With the appreciation of RMB, it is difficult for China's comparative advantage of low labor price to play, and it is difficult for export enterprises to explore overseas markets simply by relying on the low labor force and low exchange rate policy formulated by the state. For the rapid development of China's foreign trade and the sustained growth of China's economy, we must adjust the foreign trade structure and promote the optimization and upgrading of China's foreign trade structure by improving the technical content and added value of export products. According to some data, many European and American multinational companies have incorporated technological innovation and R&D into their enterprise development strategies, have their own complete R&D centers, and invested a lot of R&D funds. However, in China, many enterprises don't even have the consciousness of independent research and development and technological innovation. Their so-called core technologies and equipment are basically imported from abroad.
It can be said that the reform of exchange rate mechanism and the appreciation of RMB have put some pressure on export enterprises. As an export enterprise, it should actively adjust its business philosophy and export strategy, intensify independent research and development and technological innovation, and carry out product concept innovation, product function innovation, product form innovation, product packaging innovation and product application innovation. Take the appreciation of RMB as an opportunity to improve the technical content and added value of export products. Accelerate the upgrading of products, improve the grade of export products, enhance the brand connotation and design ability of products, and build the brand advantage of export products, so as to establish the core competitiveness of enterprises, raise the price of export products, actively respond to the appreciation of RMB, and win the initiative in foreign trade. At the same time, export enterprises should attach importance to developing new products, introducing new technologies and importing new equipment, speed up the absorption, digestion and re-innovation of imported technologies, reduce their dependence on high-tech new products such as optics, medical care and precision instruments and equipment, adjust China's trade structure through import and export efforts, and reduce the adverse impact of RMB appreciation on China's trade.
(D) The government should strengthen the policy guidance and support for China's import and export enterprises.
Under the background of RMB appreciation, China government should further optimize the structure of export commodities, curb the excessive growth of foreign trade surplus, and promote the upgrading of industrial structure in China. Mainly reflected in the policy of properly guiding and supporting import and export enterprises. For example, in 2007, the government adopted a series of adjustment measures, including imposing export tariffs and reducing export tax rebates on products with "high energy consumption, high pollution and resource-based", lowering the provisional import tax rate, and canceling automatic import license management to encourage imports; Take certain export subsidies within the scope permitted by WTO rules, mainly including subsidies to encourage research and development, subsidies to support backward areas and subsidies for environmental protection projects; Improve the export credit insurance system, such as export credit, export credit guarantee and export credit insurance and other export public support; Specialized agencies can also be set up to provide domestic export enterprises with various information and consulting services, including international market conditions, market research, potential trade targets and investment environment, and help domestic export enterprises explore the international market. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the research and application of green trade barriers and technical trade barriers, so as to prevent foreign products with high pollution and low quality from entering China and impacting similar products in China.