It is called ultra-marginal decision, which is different from the marginal decision that determines the buying and selling volume. Over-marginal decision-making is a kind of "yes" and "no"
decision-making
Marginal decision-making is the decision to decide the activity level after choosing "Yes" for an activity, or about
"
The decision of "more" and "less"
An inappropriate example is that a woman decides whether to marry a man or divorce her husband.
Decision-making is a decision beyond the margin, just deciding whether to marry him or not to divorce, and doing a good job in the relationship between husband and wife.
tie
Decision making. When a person chooses a major in a university, it is also an out-of-bounds decision. When he made this decision, he said to a professional (such as economics)
"
Yes ",say" no "to other majors (such as chemistry and physics). This decision of all students determines a university.
about
Professional network structure, so it is determined by the network. Traditional marginal analysis is not applicable to this kind of decision-making, but needs
should do
Use ultra-marginal analysis. After he chooses the economics major and the courses he wants to study, he will spend limited time on all the selected courses.
The space between/between/between/rooms.
The decision of allocation is called marginal decision of resource allocation.
Traditional marginal analysis can be used for this kind of decision. In marginal analysis, all decision variables take interior point values, which are decision variables.
quantity
The value between the possible maximum and minimum.
This marginal analysis is a classical mathematical programming, which only allows interior point solutions. Ultra-marginal analysis allows interior point and corner point solutions, as well as angles.
main points
The solution is that some decision variables take their maximum or minimum possible values. Ultra-marginal analysis uses marginal points for each corner and internal point.
analyse
Methods The objective function is maximized at a given corner or interior point, and then all comparisons are made by the total cost-benefit analysis method.
corner
Point. The local optimal objective function value in the interior point solution is used to select the global optimal solution. This ultra-marginal analysis is 1950.
hair
Nonlinear programming and other non-classical mathematical programming.
Network decision-making can only use ultra-marginal analysis, and traditional marginal analysis is not enough to deal with network decision-making problems.
Because network decision-making affects the topological nature of social division of labor network, it is also called topological decision-making, and a given network mode is selected.
choose
Trading volume belongs to the non-topological nature of choosing economic organizations, so marginal decision-making is also called non-topological decision-making Topological attributes include
close
Whether there is an economic organization characteristic of connection between every two individuals has nothing to do with the connection mode and the connection flow. net
Netted object
Effect means that everyone's network decision not only affects their own productivity, but also affects the market of other people's products, because
but
Affect the productivity of others. Therefore, everyone's productivity is not only related to his efforts, but also related to the number of people who participate in the network (net).
Netted object
Scale), which is determined by everyone's network. Everyone has chosen a career and choice.
buy
The decision of which products or self-sufficient products is a typical network decision, which determines the division of labor network of the whole society.
that
The resulting network effect is called "one plus one is greater than two effect" by Rosen (1977).
Network decision-making is divided into two categories, one is called countermeasure network decision-making, which means that decision-makers have monopoly power in their production industries and can
control
There is a direct interaction between pricing or network decision. The other is impersonal network decision-making, which refers to information integration.
basis
When it is very high or there are many product providers, people make online decisions based on impersonal prices, rather than directly making online decisions for others.
work
Reaction. The interaction between objective network decisions is indirectly realized through market prices. In the western free world, with
electric current
Most decisions related to sub-commerce are impersonal online decisions, and there are thousands of e-mail services or information search services.
kind
Just like suppliers, no one can manipulate prices. Buyers and sellers don't care who is the buyer and who is the seller, but only care whether they are with someone.
one
Class professional electronic service provider connection. Let's give an example to illustrate the network effect. When automobiles were invented and commercialized,
such as
If we don't consider the network effect, we will foresee that cars will replace the past activities of walking to buy things, so the market for cars will be low.
location
Is limited. Therefore, the predicted automobile output is small and the cost is high, which further limits its market. If you're like Ford,
this
Some entrepreneurs realize that low car prices can reduce transaction costs, so the benefits of division of labor to promote productivity outweigh them.
raise
Coupled with transaction costs, many occupations that did not make money in the past can make money because of the appearance of cheap cars, such as
no
When there is a car, the big supermarket loses money. After the popularity of cars, the profits of this shopping center rolled in. Therefore, the popularity of automobiles.
and
Make the level of division of labor rise, the productivity of various industries rise, and the income rise, thus further increasing the demand for automobiles, so that
automobile
The cost has dropped, so cars are really popular. This is Ford's low price of $65,438+0,000.
The story of Model T making a fortune by using the network effect. Ford set the price of the car at a level much lower than the current market price.
no
Using marginal analysis, but using ultra-marginal analysis, it is predicted that the expansion of the division of labor network will greatly reduce the price of automobiles.
time
Make profits rise sharply.
Today, when we analyze the electronic network with ultra-margin, we should also see that many industries are losing money or many people are unpredictable.
see
With the expansion of electronic network and the sharp drop of communication cost, our industry may become a profitable industry. The emergence of many such industries.
can
The division of labor network has been greatly expanded, resulting in a significant network effect.
The following e-commerce phenomenon is based on this network effect. This phenomenon is that many companies related to e-commerce
department
The P/E ratio greatly exceeds the level predicted by marginal analysis in any traditional financial theory. According to the traditional theory
If the market winning rate reflecting the ratio of stock price to profit is higher than 10, the company must go bankrupt. But many of them are related to electrons.
business
The market winning rate of business-related companies is often as high as 700,800, even 1000. Many people point out that this is anti-Internet.
Netted object
Based on the reasonable expectation of the effect. This statement is only half right. Yes, if many industries that are unpredictable at present will be affected by electricity.
son
The network and the division of labor network expand and make money, so the reasonable expectation of this unforeseen thing should be right.
electric current
The stock price valuation related to the sub-business is very high, at least higher than the reasonable valuation indicated by the current marginal analysis.
But this explanation fails to see that the profits of most companies related to e-commerce are declining (or losing money).
Last/better/previous/last name
l)。 Rational expectation can't go against the actual trend. The decline in profits of e-commerce companies is not only due to the increase in expenses.
guide
Also because more and more e-commerce services tend to be provided free of charge. For example, in a few years, personal computers developed on the Internet.
country
Home will be completely free. As more and more services cannot be charged, the losses of e-commerce companies will naturally only increase.
ask
The question is why under this trend, the share price and market winning rate of e-commerce companies remain high.
Recently, Yang Xiaokai and Keyong Li's ultra-marginal analysis and Yang Xiaokai and Huang Youguang's indirect pricing theory have found the answer to this question.
situation
Although many e-commerce companies have created positive network effects, they can't make this network work by charging directly.
fruit
Incorporate into the company's income. Therefore, many e-commerce companies come to purchase electricity through companies by means of package pricing.
son
Commercial services and tangible property are sold together, which transforms the network effect into tangible income. Let's give the following example.
bright
This indirect pricing theory.
If Ford sells tangible cars, then the service of selling cars can be carried out through electronic networks, and customers can go online.
Click here and there with the mouse to buy a car with low transaction cost. But this kind of service is not easy to charge.
wrong
If an e-commerce company solves the technical problems of these services and establishes a web page related to automobiles,
suck
Attracted enough clicks. At this time, Ford can buy this e-commerce and ask the customer.
supply
Free e-commerce car purchase service. As long as this service saves enough customer transaction costs, the company can buy it.
buy
The cost of operating this electronic service is included in the car price. If the price of a car increases a little, it is much lower than the price of every car.
visitor
With the transaction cost saved by electronic services, Ford will surpass other car companies that do not provide free electronic services.
have
Market competitiveness. Under the pressure of market competition, all auto companies will be forced to provide free electronic car purchase services.
Therefore, e-commerce entrepreneurs can sell the company and finally earn all the money it lost. As long as it can create
about
If the network effect is large enough, the market winning rate is high enough, so that the income of the sales company can offset the losses for many years. real
boundary
Many e-commerce companies in the world live like this. The most famous case is the merger of AOL and Warner Corporation.
Generally, the salary of employees in e-commerce companies is not high, and considerable remuneration comes from the company's share allotment, which is often prepaid.
period
The company can sell a good price as the basis, because the company itself may have been losing money and it is impossible to make money.
There are three main points in this story. First of all, this kind of network decision is an objective network decision, not a confrontational network decision.
If the market is monopolized, companies can manipulate the price of e-commerce, and there will be no free e-commerce service.
press
Force. Second, why can't Ford set up a department to develop e-commerce instead of buying another one?
electric current
What about the subsidiary companies? This is because e-commerce is a high-risk industry, and Ford will not be able to hire people to do it.
adequately
The motivation to take risks, so you can't make successful innovations. So successful innovation is created by private venture capital firms.
small
Starting a company together can't be done by a department under a successful big company, let alone.
can
A company jointly run by state-owned companies and officials and businessmen. Even private venture capital companies in Boston, USA, are also due to local
protect
Keep the atmosphere, there can be no big innovation. It is California's very free and flexible institutional environment that allows private enterprises to compete freely.
appropriate
E-commerce entrepreneurship.
At this point, the author has to point out that China is developing e-commerce in the form of state-owned or government-business joint venture today.
affairs
It is impossible to achieve anything. Shanghai Pudong New Area develops high-tech such as e-commerce through state-owned venture capital companies.
It's also a sloping door ramp. This will not only produce the advantage of backwardness, but also replace the system reform with imitating new technologies, leading to
After ...
Create disadvantages. The correct way is to cancel the government's monopoly and protection of financial industry, banking industry and electronic network.
private
People's enterprises have the right to start and operate freely in these fields, and the restrictions on the listing and business license of private enterprises are lifted.
manufacture
With these institutional conditions, China's network economy and e-commerce can develop, otherwise e-commerce will exist.
say
"The advantage of backwardness" will become a historical joke like the slogan of 1959 "Catch up with Britain and Catch Up with America". China's banking industry today and
electric current
The state monopoly of the information industry makes it impossible to popularize personal checks, credit cards and electronic credit. Where should we start?
rely on
What about the great development of e-commerce in China? Third, indirect pricing combined with reasonable expectations of network effects, the stock market will be interested in those
main points
Websites with high click-through rates are also priced quite high. Wall Street has a fixed pricing formula for a certain number of clicks. thigh
city
The network effect can be priced, which explains the theory that the market can't take advantage of the network effect in traditional marginal analysis.
no
Yes, on the other hand, the expected price is based on speculation, so the risk is extremely high.
Two other interesting phenomena in the new network economy are that the proportion of network transaction cost to income will be affected by the efficiency of network communication.
about
If it is improved, the overall reliability of the network will decline due to the improvement of network communication efficiency, network expansion, or overall cooperation of the network.
adjust
Therefore, the risk of failure will increase. These two phenomena cannot be predicted by traditional marginal analysis and must be overused.
edge
You can learn international analysis. Liu Mengqi of National Taiwan University, excellent doctoral thesis, 1997.
minute
This paper analyzes and predicts these two kinds of network economic phenomena. In the overall equilibrium of his endogenous network scale and overall network reliability.
model
Type, each transaction has the risk of coordination failure, when the division of labor network expands, the whole network coordination failure.
wind
Dangerous geometric progression increases. However, as long as the positive network benefits of division of labor on overall productivity exceed the unfavorable factors of increased risks,
rule
Due to the improvement of transaction efficiency, productivity, network scale and overall coordination failure risk will increase at the same time. In the process
middle
The proportion of total transaction costs of network connection and coordination in revenue will also increase. The benefits of increased productivity outweigh this.
grow
When the disadvantages increase, the total risk of coordination failure will be efficient. The increase of total transaction risk is also effective.
speed
Result.