At present, with the increasing scale and specialization of China's industrial structure, the wide application of information technology, the rise of e-commerce and the improvement of cost control requirements, the logistics industry has also begun to enter the integration stage, from disorder to order, and various new formats have begun to appear, such as supply chain management and less-than-truckload transportation, and many companies with strong competitiveness and growth ability have emerged.
From the perspective of capital market, excellent companies have been listed at present, so in a sense, excellent investment targets with very high growth are relatively increasing, so we should look at the future development trend of the industry from the perspective of industry driving force and look for companies that can break through in the future among existing companies.
The proportion of logistics expenses in GDP has gradually decreased, and the cost reduction has achieved practical results.
The proportion of logistics cost to GDP is one of the important indexes to measure the overall operation efficiency of logistics industry. Although China's logistics industry has maintained a rapid growth momentum in recent years, the overall operating efficiency is still low. In China, the index dropped from 23.79% of 199 1 to 20 19 16.9%. The proportion of logistics expenses in GDP in the United States and Japan is stable at around 8%, and the difference between China and the United States and Japan is more than 8%.
In 20 18, the total cost of social logistics was 13.3 trillion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20 17. The ratio of the total cost of social logistics to GDP is 14.77%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than that of 20 17.
In June of 20 19, the total cost of social logistics was 12.8 trillion yuan, up by 7. 1% year-on-year, and down by 1.5 percentage points compared with the same period of 20 18, 65,438.
20 1 1-20 19, the quality and efficiency of logistics development have been steadily improved. According to estimates, the proportion of China's total social logistics expenditure in GDP has decreased year by year, from 65,438+07.22% in 2065,438+065,438+0 to 65,438+04.77% in 2065,438+08, and the cost reduction has achieved practical results. As the total cost of social logistics in 20 19 has not been published as of March 2020, it is preliminarily estimated that the total cost of social logistics in China will account for about 14.09% of GDP in 20 19.
The total logistics volume rose steadily, and the total demand slowed down.
According to the statistics of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, in 20 18, the total social logistics in China was 283 1 trillion yuan, which was 6.4% higher than that in 20 17, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage point. Quarterly, the first quarter was 62.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; In the first half of the year, 13 1. 1 trillion yuan, up by 6.9%; In the first three quarters, it was 204 1 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%, and the total demand of social logistics in the whole year showed a trend of slowing down and stabilizing.
20 19,1-1,the total social logistics in China was 27 1.7 trillion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year.
Note: The growth rate in this table is calculated at comparable prices.
Under the background of industrial transformation, cost reduction and policy support, the growth of logistics industry will be better than the overall level of producer services, and the compound growth rate will reach more than 20% from 2020 to 2025. Influenced by the COVID-19 outbreak during the Spring Festival in China in 2020, it was difficult for China logistics enterprises to start work in the first quarter. Due to the epidemic situation, the demand and supply of goods in the logistics industry have decreased, and the shortage of labor and strict inspection on the road may greatly affect the timeliness and profit. As the epidemic situation is gradually controlled, logistics enterprises will gradually return to work, and it is expected that they will gradually pick up and resume growth throughout the year.
—— For the above data sources and analysis, please refer to the Analysis Report on Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning of China Logistics Industry by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.