20 17 on the situation and policies in the middle east, part I "on the shock of the situation in the middle east"
The political changes in the Middle East, which began in Tunisia on February 20th10, spread to Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and other countries, and led to regime changes in many countries, and then the situation in Syria and Yemen became violent. Until 20 12, the domino effect caused by the turmoil in the Middle East continued. In sharp contrast, the reason for the great shock in the Middle East is that China's economy took the lead in getting out of the crisis and achieved sustained, steady and rapid development. In today's world, the international situation is undergoing profound development and changes, and peace and development are still the themes of the times. At the same time, however, the unjust and unreasonable old international political and economic order still exists for a long time, local wars, turmoil and tensions are one after another, and non-traditional security issues such as terrorism are increasingly prominent. Developed countries have a strong anxiety about the increasingly powerful China, and they are always waiting for opportunities to make excuses or make trouble in secret, which has a negative impact on our country.
Keywords: the situation in the Middle East; Peaceful development; China
201114, Tunisia opened the turbulent prelude of the Arab Spring. On February 1 1, Egyptian President Mubarak stepped down; /kloc-in March/April, the situation in Bahrain was turbulent, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were invited to send troops to Bahrain to "maintain stability"; /kloc-in March of 0/9, NATO began air strikes against Libya, which eventually led to the downfall of Gaddafi's regime and his own death. 165438+1On October 23rd, Yemeni President Saleh signed the power transfer agreement.
The Middle East is not a purely geographical concept, but a political geographical concept, which usually refers to the vast areas of West Asia and North Africa, including the fertile crescent zone, the Arabian Peninsula and the vast Arab world extending to the Maghreb, as well as more than 20 countries such as Israel, Iran, Afghanistan, Turkey and Cyprus. Located in Asia, Africa and Europe, in the center of the Eastern Hemisphere. The Middle East is the birthplace of Islam, _ _ _ and Judaism, which has nurtured the Nile River Basin and the Two Rivers Basin among the four major civilizations. At one time, it gave birth to three empires spanning Asia, Africa and Europe: Persian Empire, Arabian Empire and Ottoman Empire, which left a brilliant chapter in the history of human civilization.
I. Causes of turmoil in the Middle East
1. Ethnic contradictions. The main nationalities in the Middle East are Arabs, Persians, Turks, Kurds and Jews. However, the rise and fall of these ethnic groups occurred in different historical periods. In the prosperous period, these ethnic groups tried their best to expand outward and develop their power, imposing their own culture on other ethnic groups, but in the declining period, they were often invaded and oppressed by other ethnic groups, thus causing long-standing contradictions among ethnic groups.
2. Religious disputes. The Middle East is the birthplace of the world's three major religions _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _, Judaism and Islam. Although the three major sects have deep historical roots and many similarities in doctrine, they all advocate their own positions in their respective beliefs, resulting in many conflicts and contradictions. Islam is the largest religion in the Middle East. Because the social development in this region is in a backward state, Islam is not completely divorced from politics like Christ, but closely linked with politics. Many political issues are strongly religious, and religious conflicts and disputes are intertwined with politics, which makes it difficult to straighten out many problems in the Middle East.
3. Border issues. Many people just attribute the Middle East issue to a resource crisis or a clan belief. However, we should also see that any energy source is based on land, and the survival of any clan is also based on land. Especially in the Middle East, there are long-term turmoil and frequent wars, and many wars are caused by border or territorial disputes. The Middle East was once one of the earliest cradles of human civilization. It has nurtured many far-reaching empires, especially the last one: the Ottoman Empire, so the rise and fall of the Ottoman Empire has become one of the important historical roots of the border issue in the Middle East today. During the prosperity of the Ottoman Empire, most of the Middle East belonged to this empire. However, with the gradual decline of the country, although the imperial provinces maintained vassal relations, they no longer obeyed the central government of the empire. After entering modern history, with the development of capitalism, the Middle East has become a place for western colonialism to compete and carve up, thus making the border of the Middle East deeply branded with colonialism. Western powers arbitrarily divided and re-divided the Middle East and imposed slavery laws and regulations. The cruel exploitation of western colonialists aggravated the contradictions among the people in the Middle East. Around the Second World War, the Middle East countries became independent one after another, but these Middle East countries did not divide according to their own borders, but realized independence within the sphere of influence of the colonialists. In addition, the emerging democracy in the Middle East has a short history, and there are still unfinished borders and pan-Arabism, which has caused many disputes and wars.
4. Interference and influence of big powers. The Middle East is the junction of three continents: Asia, Africa and Europe, the bridge and link between the East and the West, and the only way between the continents. Some famous straits and waterways in this region are of great international strategic significance, such as the Black Sea Strait, Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz and Mande Strait. At the same time, the Middle East is the main oil producing area in the world. At present, the total proven oil in the world is about1366.64 billion tons, and natural gas is about/kloc-0 1654.38+0289265.438+00+00 billion cubic meters. The oil reserves in the Middle East account for about 66.42% of the world's total oil reserves, and the natural gas reserves account for 3 1% of the world's reserves, among which the reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran exceed10 billion tons. The Middle East region not only has large oil and gas reserves and concentrated distribution, but also has superior development conditions. Therefore, this region is the most sensitive region in the world's politics, economy and military affairs, and has always been a key region for great powers to compete for. It is precisely because of its extremely important position in the global strategy that the preferred goal of capitalist external expansion is the Middle East. As early as 200-300 years after16th century, when capitalism was established in Europe and western powers stepped up their expansion to the world, they extended the claws of colonialism to the vast Middle East, and the Middle East became the prey of western powers at that time to colonize, expand overseas markets and plunder wealth and resources.
Second, the consequences of conflict and turmoil in the Middle East.
1. The turmoil broke the traditional power pattern in the Middle East, and the Arab world was once again divided and weakened, and its overall strength declined. In this turmoil, differences between Arab countries have deepened and contradictions have intensified. As a whole, the position of the Arab world in the international system has further declined. As the only regional organization in the Arab world, the Arab League has little influence, and its response to the domestic chaos in the member countries in the region has started slowly and there is no countermeasure. Looking back on the 1960s, the Arab League failed to play its due role in many issues concerning the vital interests of the Arab world, such as the Palestinian issue, the Gulf War and the Iraq War. In this Middle East crisis, especially for Libya, the Arab League's attitude towards western military actions is vacillating and powerless. It reflects the decline of the status of the Arab League and the weakening of its status under the influence of western pressure and internal differences of opinion.
2. The traditional ideology in the Middle East is facing new challenges. Mainstream ideologies such as Arab nationalism suffered setbacks and blows, and their representatives withdrew from the Arab political arena with mixed results. At present, countries in the Middle East are in a very important transition period, that is, they are moving towards modern democratic politics after abandoning traditional absolutism. Islam itself is in a relatively backward stage of development, carrying too many non-religious functions, making the relationship between politics and religion complicated. Under the new situation, some countries intend to completely westernize or look for "Islamic substitutes", but the results are disappointing. The middle east society in transition is facing many social contradictions, which are further aggravated by the rulers' mistakes in dealing with various problems. Without thorough religious reform, it is impossible to achieve profound social changes. Therefore, religious reform has become an inherent need and historical necessity for the further development of Middle East society. Islam, baptized by religious reform or religious revolution, will not only further improve itself, but also promote the rapid development of Middle East society.
It will take a long time to establish a stable new regional order in the Middle East. Although many countries in the Middle East are societies of the same nature, the specific problems of each country are different. For example, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria are divided by sectarian disputes, and there are great differences among Libyan tribes, so there is a great possibility of conflict. During the transitional period, due to the unbalanced differences in society, history, culture and development, the political development of countries in the Middle East is not consistent, showing "politics of diversified development". Therefore, Middle Eastern countries will not complete political changes in the same way, and their social transformation will never be completed in isolation. In addition, the interference of various external forces and systems has also aggravated the complexity of contradictions among countries in the Middle East. Therefore, in a short time, it is impossible for the region to realize a stable new order of political pluralism and economic integration.
Third, rational thinking in a chaotic situation.
So far, several countries in the Middle East that have experienced shocks have basically shown the nature of the spontaneous change movement of the people. Although the participation of participants and supporters in a certain aspect of modern technology shows a relatively large scale and organization, most people enter the historical stage under the condition of insufficient preparation for major historical actions. The people's demands are not clear, and they lack constructive goals and symbolic leaders with extraordinary abilities. At the same time, some western countries secretly interfere, using various channels to influence and encourage protesters and anti-government organizations that are still in ignorance, and at the same time secretly interfere in the internal affairs of various countries for various reasons.
The political power of Arab countries "was and is not maintained by the framework of external forces". On the contrary, they can persist for decades, "largely by their own means." The internal affairs of a sovereign country should be solved by the sovereign country itself without interference from other countries, so the ultimate solution to the problem still depends on the people. The final settlement of the Middle East issue also depends on the unity of the Arab world.
Always be alert to the ulterior motives of big countries. Generally speaking, the Obama administration adopted the so-called "selective intervention" realistic policy in the Middle East turmoil. "Obamaism" to some extent reflects a diplomatic dilemma that the United States has been facing since the Iraq war: on the one hand, the United States can't stand incidents that offend American values or threaten American marginal interests overseas, on the other hand, the United States is unwilling to take risks and devote itself to dealing with these incidents. This is partly because the resources of the US military are now almost used to the limit. Of course, there is a more important purpose, which is to shrink the Middle East front and shift the strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region. The United States has a great sense of urgency and crisis about the challenges brought by the development of China and other emerging powers to its international status, global influence and dominance. Especially in recent years, China's influence on the world stage has been increasing, and the United States has begun to worry that China is competing with the United States for global influence. At the same time, the United States also realized that it could no longer handle global economic affairs alone. The recent high-profile participation and promotion of TPP by the United States is obviously due to the strategic intention of balancing China's influence. The purpose is to clearly focus on the strategic deployment in the Asia-Pacific region. At present and for a long time to come, the strategic focus of the United States will undoubtedly point to the Asia-Pacific region.
Fourth, the enlightenment to China.
The unrest in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and other countries triggered the interference of countries such as Britain, the United States and France. Some countries in West Asia and North Africa have experienced violent turmoil and suffered great disasters. In sharp contrast, China's economy took the lead out of the crisis and achieved sustained, stable and rapid development. It is a clear grasp of this so-called "big environment". In today's world, the international situation is undergoing profound development and changes, and peace and development are still the themes of the times. At the same time, however, the unjust and unreasonable old international political and economic order still exists for a long time, local wars, turmoil and tensions are one after another, and non-traditional security issues such as terrorism are increasingly prominent. Developed countries have a strong anxiety about the increasingly powerful China, and they are always waiting for opportunities to make excuses or make trouble in secret, which has a negative impact on our country. As far as China is concerned, during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, we should pay more attention to people's livelihood, economic restructuring and corruption. Actively and steadily push forward the reform of the political system, change the mode of economic growth, and continue to strengthen the construction of the social security system. Only to achieve development is the last word. Only by concentrating on construction and handling various contradictions in the transitional period can we truly realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
References:
[1] Stone, Tang. The recent turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East and its enlightenment to China [J]. Mao Zedong Deng Xiaoping Theory Studies, 20 1 1, (1 1).
[2] Wang. Analysis of the causes and consequences of the turmoil in the Middle East [J]. Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University, 20 1 1, (8).
20 17 on the situation and policies in the middle east, part ii, analysis of the turbulent situation in the middle east.
This paper briefly analyzes the related problems of the Middle East turmoil and puts forward relevant viewpoints.
Keywords: Middle East turmoil
As we all know, the world situation has been turbulent recently, especially in the Middle East. This has had a great impact on China and even the world.
Because the Middle East issue involves the interests of many countries, it has not been resolved for a long time, which has brought great instability to the international community. In recent years, due to Israel's tough policy and the biased policy of the US government, the Palestinian-Israeli issue has reached a new deadlock, and the situation in the Middle East remains turbulent. Since Abbas took office, the Middle East issue has not changed substantially. Today, the slightly calm situation in the Middle East still contains hidden worries and the prospects are not very optimistic.
There are many factors contributing to the status quo of the Middle East issue, but most of them closely revolve around religious conflicts and territorial conflicts. On the Middle East issue, the policies of the United States and Israel play a major role in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process:
Israel: The Israeli right-wing forces, represented by Sharon's government, are deeply influenced by Zionism, religion and national chauvinism, and have long pursued the policy of "iron blood". The direct cause of the intensification of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is the bloody policy pursued by the hawkish Sharon after he took office. Israel's religious chauvinism stifled the cause of Palestinian national liberation and led to the collapse of the Middle East peace process. From Israel's point of view, the reason for the current situation is the tough policy of the right-wing government with profound ideological roots, and the support of the people is the reason why this policy can stand in a bad national security environment. This has become an important factor that the Middle East issue cannot be solved at present.
United States: In addition to the United States, members of the international community involved in coordinating the Palestinian-Israeli issue include the United Nations, the European Union and Russia. But in essence, the United States, which gives Israel political, economic and military support, is the only key external factor affecting the Palestinian-Israeli issue. The United States has great interests in the Middle East, and it is in the interest of the United States to support Israel, a democratic non-Islamic country. To some extent, Israel can survive and develop in the Arab world with the support of the United States, and Israel is highly dependent on the United States. So almost only the United States can influence Israel from the outside. However, the United States' attitude of favoring Israel on the Middle East issue is obviously unfair. As a result, it not only failed to propose a reasonable solution, but also sowed the seeds of hatred in the Arab and Islamic worlds.
Generally speaking, although the governments of the United States and Israel are more likely to have an impact on the current situation. However, in the past experience, due to many factors such as religious territory, even if there is easing, there are still many sharp struggles and problems in front of all parties. In the future, Zionist ideology will still have a great influence on the Israeli political situation. The United States will not fundamentally change its policy of supporting and favoring Israel, and Palestine will not be supported by powerful forces. Therefore, the future of the Middle East issue as a whole is bleak, and it is impossible to get a fundamental solution soon. Only by contrasting and changing international forces and balancing various forces can we get satisfactory answers from all sides. It is possible to better promote the development of the Middle East peace process and reopen the door to Palestinian-Israeli peace talks. Therefore, the road to peace in the Middle East is rather complicated and long, and the prospects are rather bleak.
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