Time series analysis of 1. regional growth effect
As an important source of funds for social fixed assets investment in the Yangtze River Delta region, foreign direct investment has an important impact on the economic growth in this region. By analyzing the situation in the Yangtze River Delta (Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai in this paper) and the whole country (see table 1), we can see that in the 1980s and 1990s, both the whole country and the Yangtze River Delta maintained a rapid growth rate in attracting foreign direct investment, with Jiangsu ranking first, with an average annual growth rate of1985-1990. Calculating the growth elasticity ratio of GDP and FDI shows that the growth elasticity ratio of the Yangtze River Delta is higher than that of the whole country, which shows that FDI has a strong driving effect on the GDP growth of the Yangtze River Delta. On average, every increase in FDI absorbed by the Yangtze River Delta 1% will increase GDP by 0.49%.
Table1comparison of FDI growth elasticity
attached drawing
Note: Growth elasticity = GDP growth rate /FDI growth rate, which means that GDP will increase by one percentage point for every increase in FDI 1%.
Source: China Statistical Yearbook, Shanghai Statistical Yearbook and Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook (198 1-2000).
Using the method of regression analysis, it is assumed that there is LNGDP=αLNFDI+β between GDP and FDI, that is, GDP=eβFDIα. Its economic meaning is that the input and output (GDP) of FDI elements meet the logarithmic quantitative relationship. α represents the rate of return on factor input, that is, the growth rate of output when FDI input increases 1%; As a constant term, eβ represents the influence of all other factors except FDI, mainly the influence of labor force.
According to the time series of FDI and GDP (calculated by RMB exchange rate in the same period) in two provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta and the whole country, we estimate the above regression coefficients and their parameter values, and the regression results (Table 2) meet the statistical test requirements.
Table 22 Regression Analysis Results of GDP and FDI
attached drawing
Source of resources: same table 1.
From the actual calculation results, there is a relatively stable internal dependence between GDP and FDI in the Yangtze River Delta region. The return rate of FDI investment to GDP in the Yangtze River Delta is 0.364 1, that is, when FDI investment increases 1%, GDP will increase by about 0.364 1%. Comparing the whole country with other provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Delta, the contribution rate of FDI in provinces and cities characterized by abundant labor resources and low prices is lower than the average level, but the effective combination of labor factors in these provinces and cities has a significant impact on the improvement of output efficiency. This feature shows that investment in labor-intensive industries accounts for a large proportion of investment in the Yangtze River Delta. In fact, the Yangtze River Delta still has the typical characteristics of low price of labor factors, and the development of labor-intensive industries has made great contributions to the growth of total output.
2. Analysis of trade growth effect
Generally speaking, the trade effect of FDI is reflected in four aspects: trade substitution effect, trade creation effect, trade supplement effect and market expansion effect. The large-scale entry of foreign capital has promoted the rapid growth of foreign trade in the Yangtze River Delta, and its proportion in the total import and export volume of the country has continued to rise.
In order to measure the trade effect of FDI in the Yangtze River Delta region, we use the data of 1985- 1999 to calculate the correlation coefficients of FDI, accumulated foreign direct investment (FDIC), accumulated foreign direct investment in the previous year (FDIC- 1), EXport (ex) and IMport (im) respectively (see table 3 At the same time, considering the time lag effect, we use EX = α+β (FDIC- 1) and IM = α+β (FDIC- 1)+γ FDI (see Table 4) for regression analysis, and the statistical test shows that the results are effective.
Table 3 Correlation coefficient between foreign direct investment and import and export
correlation coefficient
FDI FDIC FDIC- 1
Shanghai foreign exchange 0.864 0.99 1 0.976
IM 0.777 0.936 0.937
Zhejiang EX 0.9 13 0.985 0.965
Instant message 0.886 0.968 0.95 1
Jiangsu EX 0.948 0.994 0.984
IM 0.968 0.98 1 0.963
Yangtze river delta EX 0.944 0.989 0.973
Instant message 0.9 13 0.973 0.96 1
Country EX 0.942 0.945 0.923
IM 0.970 0.935 0.906
1. Analysis of investment-driven effect
The influence of FDI on the change of industrial structure in the Yangtze River Delta is first realized by driving the change of fixed assets investment scale and departmental structure of the whole society. Using LNGDZCTZ=αLNFDI+β (see Table 5), this paper makes a regression analysis of the fixed assets investment (GDZCTZ) and FDI in the Yangtze River Delta region, and the results show that FDI has a strong driving effect on the fixed assets investment scale in this region. This shows that the role of foreign capital in the change of industrial structure in this region is not only reflected in the influence of the scale of foreign capital itself on the investment scale of the three industries, but also amplified this influence by stimulating the investment scale. Because most of the foreign capital in the Yangtze River Delta flows to the secondary and tertiary industries, the scale of fixed assets investment in the secondary and tertiary industries in this region has increased. The investment-pulling effect of FDI makes more funds enter the secondary and tertiary industries, and the departmental structure of fixed assets investment in this region is further transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries. This change in departmental structure has led to three changes in the proportion between industries.
Table 5 Regression analysis results of fixed assets investment and foreign direct investment
attached drawing
Source of resources: same table 1.
2. Analysis of industrial structure transformation effect
The relative change of the added value of three industries is the main index to reflect the transformation of industrial structure, and the influence of foreign direct investment on the transformation of industrial structure is finally reflected in the contribution of foreign capital actually used by different industries to its added value. In order to measure the transformation effect of FDI on the industrial structure in the Yangtze River Delta region, we use LNGDP (I) = α LNFDI (I)+β (I =1,2,3, representing the primary, secondary and tertiary industries respectively) for regression analysis, and the results are shown in Table 6.
Table 6 Regression analysis results of added value of three industries and FDI
attached drawing
attached drawing
Source: same table 1.
T-test analysis shows that FDI has little explanatory power to the added value of the primary industry in the Yangtze River Delta, and its influence on the added value of the secondary industry in the Yangtze River Delta is greater than that on the added value of the tertiary industry. This is consistent with the reality we have observed. The secondary industry has always been an important field of foreign investment in the Yangtze River Delta, especially in Jiangsu, where nearly 90% of foreign investment flows into the secondary industry. The α value analysis shows that the contribution of FDI to the added value of the tertiary industry is higher than that of the secondary industry and much higher than that of the primary industry, which shows that FDI is an important factor affecting the rapid decline of the output value of the primary industry and the rise of the output value of the secondary and tertiary industries in the industrial structure transformation in the Yangtze River Delta region. It can be seen that the Yangtze River Delta region can quickly enter the middle and late stage of industrialization from the initial stage of industrialization in just over 20 years, and FDI is one of the most important factors.
3. Analysis of structural optimization effect
Foreign direct investment is not only a capital problem, but also a commercial activity promoted by a "package" of production factors, including capital, technology, research and development capabilities, organizational management skills, human resources development and world trade networks. Therefore, the influence of FDI on the adjustment of industrial structure in the Yangtze River Delta is not only reflected in the changes of three industries, but also reflected in the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure by adjusting the allocation of social resources and promoting technological progress.
This is mainly manifested in four aspects: first, FDI has promoted the development of export-oriented industries in this region, which can be proved by the growth of foreign direct investment in the Yangtze River Delta, the growth of exports of foreign direct investment enterprises and the correlation with the growth of export trade. Second, foreign direct investment has changed the traditional technology and capital-intensive industries in this region, such as chemicals, beverages, cosmetics, detergents, beer and tires. This kind of industry in the Yangtze River Delta has a large production scale, but its technology is backward. Since 1990s, a large number of foreign capitals have entered. Through the transfer of traditional technology and mature technology, it has played an obvious role in improving the technical level and optimizing the product structure of these industries. At present, there is no obvious gap between this kind of industry and foreign countries. Thirdly, FDI has promoted the development of emerging industries in this region, and significantly increased the proportion of technology-intensive and capital-intensive industries, while the ranking of traditional industries and labor-intensive industries has moved backward. In the middle and late 1990s, multinational companies entered the Yangtze River Delta in large numbers, and their investments were mostly capital-intensive and technology-intensive, which made some important industries in the Yangtze River Delta transcend the traditional process experienced by developed countries only with 10 years, such as automobiles, posts and telecommunications, household appliances, computers, electronics, chips and other industries. Fourth, foreign direct investment provides a shortcut for upgrading the industrial structure. Because the Yangtze River Delta has the advantages of good industrial foundation and complete industrial categories, foreign-invested enterprises have promoted the development of upstream industries in the region through a number of supporting production enterprises and localization of intermediate inputs, and brought them into the international market, enabling the region to participate in international division of labor and competition more widely and increase the share of domestic products in the international market, thus providing a shortcut for upgrading the industrial structure.
Third, the industrial agglomeration effect.
Marshall, a British economist, has long found that centralized manufacturers are more efficient than single isolated manufacturers. This kind of economies of scale effect that exists in the industry rather than individual manufacturers is called externality. Generally speaking, industrial agglomeration can promote the formation of specialized suppliers, create a perfect and highly specialized labor market, and reduce the transaction costs of enterprises in the region; The geographical concentration of manufacturers contributes to the informal exchange of creative ideas and technical secrets among individuals, that is, knowledge spillover, thus promoting innovation; Industrial agglomeration is the catalyst for the birth of new enterprises. Where there is industrial agglomeration, the concentrated customer base reduces the investment risk of setting up new enterprises, and it is easy for investors to find market opportunities and entrepreneurs to find gaps in products or services. In addition, the entry threshold of industrial cluster area is lower than that of other areas, and the required equipment, technology, inputs and employees can be solved in the area, so it is much easier to start a new enterprise than in other areas. Industrial agglomeration intensifies competition, living in the same place, comparing with each other in the same industry, and having the scale of performance evaluation brings competitive pressure to enterprises. Enterprises with good performance can get the honor of success from it, while enterprises with poor or mediocre performance will feel pressure. Constant comparison generates constant encouragement. Industrial agglomeration enhances competition, and competition also enhances the competitiveness of industrial agglomeration areas, making enterprises in the region have stronger competitive advantages than those scattered around the country, and it is easier to enter the forefront of this industry.
When there is no foreign investment, it is difficult for backward areas to form internationally competitive industrial clusters, especially in technology-intensive industries. This was the case in the Yangtze River Delta before the reform and opening up, and the industrial structure was characterized by "small and complete, small and scattered, small and weak". In the past 20 years, large-scale continuous entry of foreign capital has played an important role in industrial agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta. Especially since the 1990s, a large number of multinational companies have entered, which has led to the continuous gathering of various factors of production in this region, the new layout of productive forces is gradually taking shape, and the regional competitiveness is constantly improving. Analyzing the industrial agglomeration caused by foreign direct investment in the Yangtze River Delta, we find that:
(1) The industrial agglomeration induced by FDI in the Yangtze River Delta mainly occurred in the 1990s, in technology and capital-intensive industries, mainly in automobiles, auto parts, chemicals, electronics, instrumentation and other industries, making the Yangtze River Delta gradually become the processing and manufacturing center of the global equipment industry.
(2) Within the Yangtze River Delta, the industrial agglomeration induced by FDI is mainly concentrated in the surrounding areas of Shanghai. Take Suzhou as an example. Suzhou is one of the areas with the most intensive utilization of foreign capital in China, and it is also one of the areas with the most intensive utilization of Taiwanese capital. Since 1992, the annual import contract value of Suzhou's Taiwanese investment is about 10 billion US dollars. Taiwanese investment industries are mostly concentrated in the electronic information industry, with high industrial relevance, and enterprise clusters are formed around leading enterprises, such as IT industrial clusters with BenQ computers, Quanyou computers and Huayu computers as the core. At present, Suzhou has established many large-scale production bases such as mouse, color display, liquid crystal display and ultramicro semiconductor. Most products keep pace with international advanced technology, and many products have occupied a large share in domestic and foreign markets.
The industrial agglomeration induced by FDI in the Yangtze River Delta has gradually formed high-tech communities in this area. At present, the Yangtze River Delta has become an important base for many high-tech industries in China, such as electronic communication, biomedicine and new materials. And high-tech industries represented by microelectronics, optical fiber communication, bioengineering, ocean engineering and new materials. It also occupies a leading position in China.
(4) The industrial agglomeration induced by FDI in the Yangtze River Delta has not formed an industrial "enclave". Because of its strong industrial support ability, it can solve the localization problem of intermediate inputs, and FDI has a very obvious driving effect on the upper and middle reaches of the region.
(5) In the IT industry cluster induced by FDI, the characteristics of "cluster" caused by leading enterprises are very obvious. The IT agency industry in Taiwan Province Province believes that the wage level of production line operators in the Yangtze River Delta is only 1/20 of that in Taiwan Province Province, and enterprises moving here can gain a cost advantage, while those who do not move will face a survival crisis. In addition, geographical proximity is also an important factor for foreign businessmen to move their production capacity to this point. Foreign businessmen who are gradually transforming into domestic sales hope to transport the products of the Yangtze River Delta to the provinces in the shortest distance according to the control of the hinterland in the south of the Yangtze River, so as to achieve the purpose of selling the market nearby. Now, along the Shanghai-Nanjing high-speed economic belt, the cohesive effect of the industrial chain is attracting IT vendors to "cluster" in Jiangsu like migratory birds. The manufacture of computer motherboards, notebook computers, monitors, keyboards, mice, UPS power supplies, communications, hard disks, scanners, microprocessors and many other products has become a climate.
Four. conclusion and suggestion
The empirical analysis and econometric test results show that foreign investment has played an irreplaceable role in making up the shortage of funds, promoting rapid and sustainable economic development, upgrading industrial structure, accelerating industrial accumulation, increasing employment, promoting technological progress, accelerating trade growth and industrialization. At the same time, it also shows that capital is still the most scarce factor in the development of the Yangtze River Delta. To maintain rapid and steady economic growth, we must actively use foreign capital and accelerate capital formation.
According to Chenery and others' criteria for dividing economic development stages, the Yangtze River Delta is in the middle and late stage of industrialization. According to the standard of Deng Ning's "investment cycle theory", it is in the transition stage from the second level (per capita GNP of 400-1500 USD) to the third level (per capita GNP of 2000-4750 USD). According to international experience, at this stage of development, in addition to maintaining the scale of utilizing foreign capital to solve the problems of capital shortage and employment, it is also necessary to consider using foreign capital to introduce advanced technology and management to improve the international competitiveness of industries.
After China's entry into WTO, the utilization of foreign capital in the Yangtze River Delta region has been competed by Southeast Asian countries at the high end and squeezed by the central and western regions at the low end. In order to maintain the advantage of utilizing foreign capital, the strategic orientation of foreign investment policy in the future should focus on: first, based on the characteristics of regional industries, implement a foreign investment policy coordinated with industrial policies, promote the height of industrial structure, and strive to change from mainly engaged in the production of labor-intensive products and some capital-intensive products to mainly engaged in the production of capital-intensive products and some technology-intensive products. Second, actively attract multinational companies to invest, take advantage of the adjustment of international division of labor brought about by globalization, strive to rise from vertical division of labor to horizontal division of labor in some fields, and continue to maintain dynamic comparative advantages.
[date of receipt] April, 2002-18
refer to
McDowell. G.D.A， 1960，returnandcostofreingprivate investment，Economic，V0 1.36。
Li Lanqing, editor-in-chief: Basic Knowledge of Foreign Capital Utilization in China, Beijing, Central Party School Press, China Foreign Economic and Trade Press, 1995.
Comparative Study on Industrialization and Economic Growth, Shanghai People's Publishing House, 1988.
Edited by Zhao Jinping. Utilization of Foreign Capital and Economic Growth in China, Beijing, People's Publishing House, 200 1.
Liu Enzhuan: Analysis of Trade Effects of Foreign Direct Investment, Paper of China International Trade Conference, 1998.
He Jie, Xu Rodin: An Empirical Study on the Spillover Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on China's Industrial Sector, World Economic Papers, No.2, 1999.
He Jie: Further Accurate Quantification of the Spillover Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on China's Industrial Sector, World Economy,No. 12, 2000.
Zhou Mou,: The Present Situation and Prospects of Multinational Corporations' Investment in wuxi new district, No.4 Wuxi Economic Reference, 200 1.
Study on the Countermeasures of Attracting Multinational Corporations to Invest in Zhejiang, Planning Project of Zhejiang Foreign Investment Administration-Research Group on the Countermeasures of Attracting Multinational Corporations to Invest in Zhejiang,1September, 999.
[10] Shen Kunrong: "Foreign direct investment and China's economic growth", in Management World, No.5, 1999.