Looking at the current world economic hotspots, the RMB exchange rate issue is undoubtedly one of the highlights. China as the current
The development of the fastest growing, most potential and most dynamic economy in the world has attracted more and more attention all over the world. As the locomotive of the economy, finance has an extremely important influence on economic development, and the currency exchange rate is the core issue in the financial field. It is the interaction of these factors that has pushed the RMB exchange rate issue to the forefront of public concern.
I. International background of RMB appreciation pressure
Since February 2003, China has experienced four times of pressure from the international community represented by the United States, Japan and Europe on RMB appreciation. Facing the pressure of RMB appreciation from the international community for the first time, it originated from the proposal made by Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa at the meeting of finance ministers of the Group of Seven in February 2003, demanding that the Plaza Agreement of 1985 be followed to let the RMB appreciate. Since then, a game about RMB exchange rate has continued to this day. In September 2003, US Treasury Secretary Si Nuo visited China. Asking the China government to relax the fluctuation range of RMB, he thinks that the best exchange rate policy is to let the currency float freely, let the market set the exchange rate by itself, and the government should minimize intervention. This has opened a new round of pressure on the renminbi. From June 5438 to 10, 2004, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, was invited to attend the G7 meeting for the first time. This is regarded as a feast by some people in the industry. There is also the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Foreign political circles and institutions once again said that China should abandon the exchange rate arrangement pegged to the US dollar. This round of exchange rate game is filled with more gunpowder.
On April 23, 2005, at the ministerial dialogue meeting of Boao Forum for Asia, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, said in response to a reporter's question: "The pace of preparation for the reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism is accelerating, and the steps of exchange rate reform have been established." Sensitive market participants believe that Zhou's statement is a hint of RMB appreciation this year.
Second, the analysis of the reasons why RMB is facing the pressure of appreciation.
At present, the pressure of RMB appreciation is temporary. Fundamentally speaking, the trade surplus factor is always the most important reason for the pressure of RMB appreciation. The pressure of RMB appreciation mainly comes from China's trade surplus and trade friction with Japan, the United States and the European Union. The partial analysis is as follows:
In 2003, China's trade surplus with the United States was $58.6 billion, with a large cumulative surplus. However, this is only a small part of the total American economy and has little impact on the American economy. It will not pose an obstacle to the long-term development of the American economy at all. Therefore, the adjustment of RMB exchange rate has little practical impact on the US economy. The reason why the United States pressured RMB to appreciate is that China's policy of "pegging the exchange rate of the US dollar" failed to give full play to the positive role of the depreciation of the US dollar, but only "greatly enhanced the export competitiveness of China enterprises and stimulated the export of China products". Especially when the US dollar depreciated in 2002, the US foreign trade deficit reached a historical peak of US$ 435.2 billion, and the trade deficit with China reached US$ 65.438+003/kloc-0.0 billion. In fact, the reason for the sharp increase in the US foreign trade deficit is not China's RMB exchange rate policy itself, but the comprehensive effect of many factors such as the adjustment of American industrial structure, the expansion of foreign direct investment, the growth of personal consumption expenditure, and the J-curve effect of dollar depreciation.
The trade balance between China and China is basically balanced, with a deficit of $654.38+048 billion in 2003. Generally speaking, there is basically no trade pressure from the balance of payments. What reason does he have to accuse its export threat? I'm afraid this is a strategic move to force the RMB to appreciate and let Japan compete for the hegemony of the Asian dollar in the future. As Japan's economy has been in the doldrums for more than 10 years, the possibility of the yen acting as the Asian dollar is getting smaller and smaller. China's booming economy has gradually become the leader of Asian economic development, and the value of RMB has become increasingly obvious. Countries around China have begun to form a zone of trust in RMB, which has aroused Japanese concern. Therefore, their demand for RMB appreciation is not for economic reasons, but for the rise of China in Asia. In addition, Japanese companies use RMB to undervalue their investment and set up factories in China, and their products are sold to Europe and America, from which they can reap the benefits of international trade. However, due to a large number of enterprises' foreign investment, Japan has the problems of slow upgrading of industrial structure and increasing employment pressure in recent years, and its economic recovery is slow. The government hopes that the appreciation of RMB will alleviate domestic economic problems.
There is not much trade surplus between China and Europe. In recent years, the trade surplus has a tendency to expand. For example, in 2003, the trade surplus was 1, 9 1 billion US dollars, a certain increase over the previous year. However, due to the impact of the appreciation of the euro, we are worried about strengthening the trade surplus trend between China and Europe, so we also demand the appreciation of the RMB. Therefore, the pressure from the United States is real, while the pressure from Japan and the European Union is not real. It can be seen that the pressure of RMB appreciation first comes from the market pressure of foreign exchange transactions between countries; Secondly, the game between governments to safeguard their own interests, that is, political pressure.
Of course, the pressure also comes from the imperfection of China's exchange rate mechanism. At present, China implements a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, but so far, RMB has not been freely convertible under capital. Realizing full convertibility of RMB is the inevitable trend of China's long-term economic development. In the long run, China should establish a flexible RMB exchange rate adjustment mechanism to realize the free convertibility of RMB. This is not only the requirement of the long-term development of China's market economy, but also the objective requirement of economic globalization.
China needs a flexible exchange rate system to adapt to the open economy. This exchange rate system should flexibly reflect the changes in the world economy, be conducive to foreign trade, foreign investment and foreign investment, and make the national economy competitive without causing interest outflows. Because the exchange rate level and exchange rate system of a country's currency is not only a problem of exchange rate policy itself, but an integral part of the overall strategy of open economy. Exchange rate policies and institutions should be consistent with the national global strategy, rather than just serving trade and exports. Therefore, in the near future, China should explore how to adjust its trade policy and foreign exchange management system in order to achieve a more reasonable exchange rate level and obtain greater benefits; In the long run, China should devote itself to establishing a flexible exchange rate mechanism.
Third, the impact analysis of RMB appreciation.
Exchange rate fluctuation is a "double-edged sword", which will always affect a country's economy from both positive and negative aspects. The appreciation of RMB has a certain positive role and necessity in a specific historical period. It reduces the local currency price of imported equipment and raw materials, and helps to reduce the production cost of domestic industries. At the same time, we will lower the prices of agricultural products, turn some agricultural surplus products into industrial accumulation, and transfer agricultural labor to industrial sectors. However, the negative impact of appreciation on domestic and world trade cannot be ignored.
1. will have a serious negative impact on China's foreign trade export growth.
The appreciation of RMB will increase the foreign currency price of China's commodities and directly weaken the price competitive advantage of China's export commodities. Although it is emphasized that China's goods enter the world market not by RMB exchange rate, but mainly by cheap production costs (low raw materials and labor). However, it is undeniable that the appreciation of RMB will inevitably affect the export of our products and the competitiveness in the international market. It will affect the transfer effect and comparative advantage of China during the depreciation of the US dollar, make it more difficult for China to explore the international market, and is not conducive to the steady growth of China's economy.
2. It is not conducive to the steady growth of trade and economy in Asia and the world.
During the depreciation of the US dollar in 2002, the currencies of Asian countries remained relatively stable. The stability of Asian currencies is conducive to the stable growth of Asian export-oriented economy. If RMB appreciates, it may break the stability of Asian currencies and affect the pattern of Asian economic growth.
3. It is not conducive to attracting foreign investment and upgrading the processing trade industry.
The appreciation of RMB will weaken China's efforts to attract foreign investment and may slow down the growth of foreign direct investment in China. It will also affect the scale of investment and profit reinvestment of foreign-invested enterprises and the process of industrial localization, which is not conducive to the sustainable development and industrial upgrading of China's processing trade.
4. It is not conducive to alleviating deflation in China.
The appreciation of RMB will increase its purchasing power, thus aggravating deflation. This will affect the effectiveness of China's policy of cultivating and stimulating domestic demand, and may increase the difficulty for China enterprises to make profits, which will eventually aggravate the problems faced by state-owned banks.
5. It is not conducive to alleviating the domestic employment pressure.
At present, foreign trade and economic cooperation has provided more than 70 million jobs, and many new jobs have also been provided by domestic and foreign-funded enterprises. The impact of RMB appreciation on export industries and foreign direct investment will eventually deepen the unemployment problem.
This will lead to rampant speculation and financial chaos.
The appreciation of RMB will attract a lot of hot money into China, leading to the climax of stock market and real estate, the development of bubble economy and the continuation of polarization; This will lead to financial crisis, foreign exchange crisis and currency crisis. By then, deflation will turn into hyperinflation, which will eventually lead to a sharp depreciation of the RMB. At present, as the international community generally expects the RMB to appreciate in the near future, a large amount of hot money has entered China to wait for arbitrage. Although safe has introduced relevant control measures, the effect is not obvious. If we rashly appreciate the RMB exchange rate at this time, these hot money will inevitably flee after arbitrage, causing huge economic losses to our country.
Four. Expectation of RMB appreciation
Based on the above analysis, the recent appreciation of RMB will have a huge negative impact on China's economic development, so China should keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable in the short term. However, in the long run, with the continuous development of China's economy, the further improvement of the market economic system, the deepening of China's economic integration into the world economic system, and the improvement of economic strength, the overall quality and competitiveness of the national economy, the international status of RMB will be enhanced and it will become an international convertible currency. Therefore, the free floating of RMB exchange rate has its objective inevitability. The nominal exchange rate of RMB will also tend to the real exchange rate, and the appreciation will be inevitable.
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The Impact of RMB Appreciation on China's Import and Export Trade
In order to solve the crux of China's macro-economy in recent years, a new RMB exchange rate system was introduced on July 2, 2005, which changed the previous exchange rate system that was actually pegged to the US dollar and implemented a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB appreciated accordingly. With China's foreign exchange reserves reaching a record high and its foreign exchange income increasing, the appreciation of RMB can prompt China enterprises to make structural adjustment, change the structure of export commodities, improve the terms of trade, reduce the impact of international economic turmoil on China's economy, and maintain the healthy economic growth of China.
Keywords: foreign exchange reserve exchange rate reform, import and export structure adjustment
On July 2, 2005, the People's Bank of China introduced a new RMB exchange rate system: a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies, thus changing the exchange rate system that was actually pegged to the US dollar in the past. And adjust the transaction price of USD to RMB to USD 65,438+0 to USD 8.65,438+065,438+0 yuan RMB. This marks a crucial historic step for China to move towards a truly flexible and floating exchange rate system. After the announcement of this policy, the RMB continued to appreciate slightly, approaching 1 USD to 8.06 RMB in June 2005. So, what is the impact of RMB appreciation on China's foreign trade? Let's take a look at the current situation of China's foreign trade.
First, the current situation of China's foreign trade
In 2004, the total foreign trade volume of China was 1154.74 billion US dollars, which exceeded the medium-and long-term target of1trillion US dollars six years ahead of schedule. In 2004, China's foreign trade increased by 35.7% year-on-year, equivalent to 2.3 times of the total trade volume of 200 1 year. In the three years since China joined the World Trade Organization, the total foreign trade volume has more than doubled. In 2004, China's foreign trade accounted for 12% of the world's total, making it the third largest trading country in the world after the United States and Germany. In the first three quarters of 2005, China's exports increased by 3 1.3%, while imports increased by 16%, which was lower than the export growth rate of 15.3 percentage points. The balance of import and export, the surplus increased from $3.9 billion in the same period in 2004 to $68.3 billion. The rapid development of China's foreign trade import and export promoted China's trade ranking and export status, but it also had a negative impact. Although China's exports, especially those of labor-intensive commodities, are growing rapidly, China's overall terms of trade are deteriorating.
The proportion of China People's Bank's foreign exchange assets in its total assets has also increased year by year, from 1993 to 10.5% to 59.70% in 2004. The proportion of total import and export trade to GDP, that is, the dependence on foreign trade, is increasing year by year. China's dependence on foreign trade was 5 1% in 2002, 60% in 2003 and over 70% in 2004. For three consecutive years, the annual growth rate is nearly 10 percentage point. China's trade is mainly processing trade, which can only strengthen but not weaken the fact that China's dependence on foreign trade is too high. Excessive dependence on foreign trade increases the uncertainty of economic development, thus increasing the potential risks of economic development.
Second, the impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation on China's foreign trade
(1) A small appreciation has little effect on the import and export scale of China.
According to the simulation analysis of exchange rate appreciation by National Information Center, it is concluded that for every 2% appreciation of RMB, the export growth rate will decrease by 1.5 percentage points, and the import growth rate will increase by 0.2 percentage points. According to the data of 2004, it is equivalent to a decrease of $9 1 billion in exports, an increase of $654,380+0.2 billion in imports, a decrease in trade surplus from $32 billion to $210.7 billion, and a decrease in net export demand of RMB 85.2 billion, which will affect the GDP growth rate in that year (the GDP calculated by expenditure method in that year was1. It can be seen that the import and export elasticity of RMB exchange rate is very small, which is related to China's unique trade structure. At present, feed processing and assembly trade, feed processing trade and imported foreign machinery and equipment account for nearly 60% of all imports. If we consider the import of raw materials and investment products in general trade, there is still a lot of room for improvement. Earning a fixed labor fee in processing and assembly trade has little to do with exchange rate changes; The situation of feed processing trade is slightly complicated, depending on the proportion of imported intermediate products and raw materials. After the appreciation of RMB, due to the improvement of purchasing power of RMB, the appreciation of RMB was alleviated to some extent, which led to the price increase of these products in the international market. According to the Trade and Development Report of the United Nations Trade and Development Committee in 2002, among the seven important sample countries, China has the lowest unit labor wage, which is 2.5-47.8 times that of China. Even considering the productivity of unit labor, the cost of 17 sample country is higher than that of China, so the labor force caused by the exchange rate rise.
(2) Moderate appreciation of RMB is beneficial to the harmonious development of China's economy and international trade.
According to the traditional exchange rate theory, the exchange rate has a strong regulatory effect on the economy, and its mechanism is that the exchange rate of the local currency affects the export of domestic products, thus affecting domestic production and GDP growth. When the local currency exchange rate is high and the foreign currency exchange rate is low, the cost of domestic products will increase, and the price will become relatively expensive in the international market, which will naturally affect domestic production and GDP growth. When the local currency exchange rate is low and the foreign currency exchange rate is high, the cost of domestic products will be reduced and the price will become relatively cheap in the international market, which will enhance the price competitiveness of products, help expand the market and naturally promote domestic production.
When a country's economy has been relatively strong and its currency is seriously undervalued, the appreciation of returning to its true value will not only adversely affect its economy, but also make international trade develop more harmoniously, which in turn will promote the further development of its economy. The foreign exchange reserves of more than 700 billion dollars show the world that China already has such conditions. Throughout the world, the currencies of economic powers are relatively strong, and there is no conclusion that they have withdrawn from the stage of economic powers because of their strong currencies.
(C) A moderate appreciation of the RMB is conducive to the adjustment of the product cost structure in China.
The increased cost of RMB appreciation is labor cost. In China, the labor cost is very low, accounting for only 65,438+00% of the product cost, which is a cost factor with low sensitivity. If RMB appreciates by 10%, the product cost will only increase by 1%, which will not have a substantial impact on the product cost, so it is impossible to have a substantial impact on the export product price. Moreover, in China's export products, foreign-funded enterprises account for a large proportion of income, and usually need to import a large number of equipment and raw materials from abroad. The appreciation of RMB reduces the cost of equipment and raw materials purchased abroad, and the cost of these enterprises with foreign investment background will not increase, but will decrease.
(D) A moderate appreciation of RMB can better straighten out various trade relations.
The exchange rate is the price of the two currencies. Under the gold standard, the ratio of the value of the two currencies is simply expressed as the ratio of their gold content, which is called coinage parity. In the early paper currency circulation system, countries generally stipulated that the gold parity of paper currency was gold content, and paper currency still performed the function of metal currency. The exchange rate basis of the two countries is still the gold parity hidden behind the paper money. However, with the evolution of the paper currency circulation system, the gold parity of paper currency is out of touch with the actual gold content represented by paper currency, and it is difficult to determine the actual gold content represented by paper currency. It seems a bit complicated to determine the exchange rate of paper money, but one thing should be certain, that is, the basis of paper money exchange rate should be purchasing power. Parity purchasing power is another kind of gold content. Compared with another country's currency, the increase in purchasing power shows that the inflation rate of this country is lower than that of another country, and it also shows that this country's economic strength is increasing. A country with enhanced economic strength will naturally enhance the confidence of its trading partners. So as to promote the healthy development of domestic trade, which itself is an intangible trade resource. 1998 after the Asian financial crisis, the currencies of countries around China depreciated seriously. It is reported that after the financial crisis, the exchange rates of Thai baht, Korean won and Singapore dollar fell by 39%, 36% and 6 1% respectively. At this time, in order to stabilize Asian finance, China government indicated that the RMB would not depreciate, the RMB's reputation exchange rate would remain unchanged, and the real exchange rate would actually appreciate with the depreciation of neighboring countries' currencies. However, the trade situation of China in recent years shows that China's foreign trade has not been seriously affected, but continues to show a strong growth momentum. This fully illustrates the positive significance of a strong currency to trade promotion, and also reveals a law to us, that is, the exchange rate is only an external manifestation, and it is the internal quality and economic strength of a country's economy that play a decisive role.
In recent years, due to the undervaluation of RMB, international trade frictions related to China's export products are also increasing. The dumping of some products at low prices has worsened the international trade environment and affected the smooth circulation of China products in the international market to some extent. International trade promotes each other. The theory of international trade tells us that only when the economies of all trading partners can develop well can international trade be smoother and promote the economic development of all countries. Therefore, the reasonable value of RMB will return to appreciation, trade friction with trading partners will be reduced, various trade relations will be straightened out, international trade will be smoother and mutually promoted, the trade interests of relevant trading countries will be maximized, and China will also gain greater benefits in this process.
(5) The appreciation of RMB is conducive to the adjustment and upgrading of China's industrial structure.
Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, especially since the 1990s, with an annual growth rate of almost 8%. However, we must see that China's economic growth has long been at the expense of high energy consumption, low efficiency, low technology content and even ecological destruction. In international trade competition, undervaluing RMB mainly encourages the production and export of labor-intensive products and resource-based products. Although a lot of foreign exchange has been earned, the value of return is not very high, and capital accumulation is quite difficult. The competition of labor-intensive products in the international market is very fierce. A large number of third world countries have developed similar industries, which has put great pressure on China. Generally speaking, China is a resource-poor country, and its economic development continues to stay in the growth mode of high resource consumption, which will seriously affect the sustainable development of China's economy. With the rapid development of science and technology in the world, the application of various new technologies, new methods, new processes and new materials plays a key role in a country's economic development. As a big country, China is still a developing country, but after more than ten years of reform and opening up, its economy, technology and management have accumulated to some extent, which is the basis for China to develop into a higher technical field and a higher industrial level.
The benefits of industrial restructuring and industrial upgrading are manifold, which can greatly improve production efficiency, reduce product costs, improve product quality and value content, produce products with higher technical requirements, expand market space, make full use of resources, enhance the commodity value of resources, develop various raw material substitutes, reduce resource consumption and reduce environmental damage. Only industrial upgrading can fundamentally change China's economic growth mode and China's trade situation. Therefore, China's future competitive advantage must be transferred to the road of industrial upgrading. It not only meets the requirements of Scientific Outlook on Development, but also meets the requirements of social and economic development. In China's industrial structure, the proportion of traditional industries is relatively large, and emerging industries can only be said to be in their infancy. It is an urgent need for international competition in the future to vigorously develop emerging industries, transform traditional industries and accelerate the upgrading of China's industrial structure. Industrial upgrading needs a lot of capital investment, especially foreign exchange capital investment. Now there is pressure for RMB appreciation, which should be a good opportunity. After the appreciation of RMB, less equipment with the same dollar price will be converted into RMB, and the cost of introducing investment products will become relatively low. For the same patented technology and the same advanced equipment, it only needs to pay a relatively low cost, which will greatly mobilize the enthusiasm of enterprises to introduce advanced equipment and buy new technology patents, and will eventually accelerate the pace of technological upgrading in China, thus accelerating the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure and product improvement. What is certain is that China will certainly open up a new world in the international market by making good use of the favorable opportunity of RMB appreciation, accelerating the upgrading of traditional industries, accelerating the rapid development of emerging industries and promoting product upgrading.
Three. conclusion
The appreciation of RMB is one of the important problems facing the government at present. As a rapidly developing economy, if China has been implementing a fixed exchange rate policy, it is likely to mean that the currency gradually deviates from its value. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the flexibility of RMB exchange rate to ensure the stable and rapid development of China's economy and finance. Strengthen the supervision of RMB circulation in the international market, speed up the reform of the banking system and improve the management level of the banking system. The People's Bank of China should also use various means such as supervision and open market business to strive for the initiative to control the change of RMB exchange rate, so that the RMB can truly reflect its intrinsic value under the premise of stable economic development.
In the case that China's foreign trade balance keeps growing, reaching a record high, foreign exchange reserves exceed 800 billion, foreign trade product structure has some problems, and trade disputes are caused by excessive trade balance with some countries and regions, the implementation of a new exchange rate system and a small appreciation of RMB will not only have a great impact on China's foreign trade import and export, but also improve some unfavorable factors in China's foreign trade import and export. Improving China's overall terms of trade, making foreign trade a healthy engine to promote China's economic growth, can also prompt enterprises to adjust the structure of foreign trade products, change the phenomenon that labor-intensive industries such as processing trade have been pulling exports, promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure, and truly enhance China's position in international trade. With the appreciation of the exchange rate, enterprises pay more attention to the domestic market and domestic demand, reduce the dependence of national economic growth on foreign trade, and weaken the impact of the ups and downs of the world economy on China's economy, thus making China's economy develop more healthily.
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