At present, the logic of rising wind power sector lies in demand. According to the statistics of the national power industry during the period of1-August released by the National Energy Administration, during the period of 20021-August, the installed capacity of domestic wind power increased by 14.63GW, up by 4.59GW year-on-year. In August, the new grid-connected scale of wind power was 2.06GW, a year-on-year increase of 39%. On the one hand, the construction of clean energy base and offshore wind power base+wind power going to the countryside+13th Five-Year Plan boosted the expectation of wind power installation in the post-subsidy era. On the other hand, considering the promotion of carbon neutrality, it is more likely that the annual installed capacity will remain above 50GW during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period.
Comparing the valuation of various sectors such as power equipment and new energy, the valuation of fans and parts manufacturers is relatively low. With the valuation of photovoltaic, energy storage and lithium battery in the middle and high-end level, the overall valuation of wind power is being repaired under the catalysis of demand-related policies, and the gap with photovoltaic valuation scissors is expected to narrow. From the performance point of view, due to the factors of order delivery cycle, the performance of the whole machine manufacturer this year more reflects the situation of high-priced orders last year, and the gross profit margin is better. The performance of parts manufacturers reflects the impact of current purchase orders, and the current performance is under pressure due to the cost pressure of upstream steel prices.
Everbright Securities believes that the biggest stock price elasticity of the wind power industry should come from the decline of the cost side, and the trend judgment of economic data and steel prices is the core. On September 15, the National Energy Administration announced the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in August, which was 3.6% overall and 0.6% in the secondary industry. Previously, PPI was also at a high level. After the "Golden September and Silver 10", although the supply side has some support due to the production restriction policy of the Winter Olympics, the steel price continues to rise or is under pressure. If steel prices fall, the profits of wind power component manufacturers will be reversed, which will be more flexible in 2022. The orders of the whole machine manufacturer 202 1 are full, but the gross profit margin may be slightly affected by the low-priced orders this year, so priority should be given to the leading manufacturers with fast growth or high gross profit margin.
In terms of specific investment targets, Everbright Securities suggested that investment opportunities should be grasped from the aspects of wind power parts and complete machines, and the wind power parts sector suggested focusing on Daikin Heavy Industry, Jin Lei, Taisheng Wind Energy, Zhenjiang, Riyue and Tianshun Wind Energy. It is suggested to pay attention to the whole wind power sector: Sany Heavy Industry (to be listed), Dayun, Goldwind Technology (A+H) and Yangming Intelligent.