By using quantitative analysis methods such as correlation analysis, this paper deeply analyzes the situation of China's real estate market after the implementation of urban land reserve system, and draws the conclusion that the land reserve system has little negative impact on China's real estate market. The paper also puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to further improve China's land reserve system from the aspects of land reserve quantity, land supply structure, land reserve laws and regulations, land reserve management and land reserve organization system.
Keywords: land reserve system, real estate market countermeasures and suggestions
The Rise of Land Reserve System in China
On the whole, China's land reserve system was first implemented in Shenzhen and Shanghai, where the market economy is relatively developed. Since then, Hangzhou, Xiamen, Nanjing, Qingdao, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou and other cities have also set up land reserve institutions to carry out land reserve work. At present, nearly half of cities and counties in China have established land reserve system. The meaning of China's land reserve system is that, according to the urban land use planning and annual land use plan, the specialized agencies entrusted or established by the city government develop, sort out and reserve the land acquired by means of recovery, acquisition, replacement and requisition, and put the reserved land on the market in a planned way by means of bidding, auction and hanging, so as to supply and regulate the demand for various types of urban construction land.
Application of Urban Land Reserve System
In recent years, the operation of land reserve system in some cities in China has achieved great results, and its advantages in perfecting land market, controlling land supply, promoting urban industrial structure adjustment and infrastructure construction have gradually emerged. However, with the deepening of land reserve practice, people have many questions about the impact of this system on the real estate market.
Land prices are rising, and the starting point for developing the market is unfair.
In cities that have established a land reserve system, the land transfer price has risen sharply, and the price of commercial housing has also risen accordingly. Take Hangzhou as an example. In recent years, the land price and house price in this city are rising. At the same time, compared with the current land transfer price, the urban land transfer price in China was very low before the implementation of the land reserve system, and the land price was very different before and after the implementation of the system. Because of the difference of land cost, the starting line of two projects in adjacent plots is unfair. How to balance the price difference in the primary market before and after the implementation of the system, and how to find a balance between history and reality, are urgent problems that plague many city governments in China.
The market structure is unbalanced, and multi-level demand is difficult to meet.
The purpose of China's real estate reform policy is to meet the housing needs of urban residents at different levels through various channels. Some people think that the implementation of land reserve has affected the realization of this goal to a certain extent, leading to the intensification and monopoly of real estate development, and the market is gradually occupied by some powerful development enterprises, and the weak development enterprises are eliminated. At present, powerful development enterprises focus on high-grade and high-return development and sell to high-income groups. Even the development of affordable housing for ordinary working-class people has a high development grade and market price, which is unbearable for some consumers. The imbalance of real estate market structure makes the multi-level housing demand can not be effectively met, and also leads to the contradiction between supply and demand of high-grade commercial housing.
Analysis on the Influence of Land Reserve System on Real Estate Market
As one of the allocation methods of land resources, the implementation of the land reserve system will inevitably have an impact on the real estate market and the land capital market. However, whether this system is the main reason for the rise of urban land price needs further study, which is directly related to the development and improvement of China's future urban land reserve system.
Analysis of urban land price rise
Correcting distorted land price is the direct reason for the rise of urban land price. China's land reserve system was established when the real value of land was suppressed and the land price was seriously distorted. The reasonable increase of land price brought by bidding, auction and hanging is the true embodiment of land value. In the previous irregular land market, the low land price or transaction price is the result that the hidden land market does not pay attention to price leverage, and on the other hand, the gray transaction has caused serious losses to the national interests. According to estimates, China's land assets are 25 trillion yuan. Due to various reasons, at present, the national land assets lose nearly 654.38+000 billion yuan every year. The implementation of the land reserve system and the operation of the land market on a fair and open platform will inevitably lead to the rise of land prices, the essence of which is the embodiment of the state as the land owner's right to land income.
The disorderly speculation in the land market is an important reason for the rise in land prices. At present, in the cities where the land reserve system has been established, the land sold by bidding, auction and hanging has seen an abnormal increase in land price. Japanese scholar Noguchi Yoshio used the difference between the actual land price and the theoretical land price to measure the health of the Tokyo land market. Theoretical land price refers to the capitalization of land rent. Combined with the reality of our country, the government should determine the benchmark land price, calibrated land price and reserve price in the process of land transfer. Among them, the benchmark land price refers to the average price determined by the government according to the land level, land use type or location of lots. It is the basis for the government to macro-control the land price and further evaluate the calibrated land price and transfer the reserve price; The demarcated land price is the land use right price of a certain date evaluated by the government according to the needs under the normal land market and normal management conditions. It is the basis for the government to determine the transfer amount when transferring the land use right; The transfer reserve price refers to the land use right price determined by the municipal land administrative department according to the benchmark land price and the calibrated land price after the institution with land evaluation qualification evaluates according to the prescribed procedures. It can be seen that these three prices have the meaning of theoretical land price to a certain extent, and it is normal for the land transfer price to fluctuate only within the reasonable range of theoretical land price.
Land reserve has little effect on land price. Taking Hangzhou as an example, this paper analyzes the correlation between land reserve stock and land transaction price since the implementation of land reserve system in this city: the correlation coefficient between land reserve stock (DS) and land transaction price (DP) is 0.659, which is significantly correlated. However, when the correlation coefficient of this sample is tested for significance, it is found that the t value is small, the overall correlation coefficient is close to zero, and there is a weak correlation between land reserve and land price. The simple regression analysis between land reserve stock and land transaction price shows that the explanatory power of land reserve stock to land price is weak.
DP = 1636.75+ 13.92 ds(t = 1.752)
Goodness of fit test R=0.435, F=3.080, DW= 1.940.
LN(DP)= 7.00 1+0.22 1LN(DS)(t = 3. 125)
Goodness of fit test R=0.206, F= 1.038, DW= 1.8 19.
Explained by the above regression model, the correlation between land reserve and land price is weak. For every increase in land reserve 10000 square meters, the average contribution land price will increase 13.92 yuan/square meter. According to the elastic explanation, if the land reserve inventory increases by 1%, the land price will only change by 0.22 1%. From the above analysis, it can be seen that the land price increase is not caused by the land reserve system, and the land reserve has little influence on the land price.
Analysis on the price increase of commercial housing
The rise in house prices is the result of many factors. Among them, development cost, market demand and other factors are the main factors.
The rising development cost is the main reason for the rise in housing prices. Under the land auction supply mode, the cost of land invested by developers is affected by market competition, and only at the highest market price can the ideal land be won. It is an inevitable choice for developers to transfer the rise in land costs to housing prices. Taking Hangzhou as an example, this paper analyzes the correlation between the sales price of commercial housing and the land transaction price since the implementation of the land reserve system in this city: the correlation coefficient between the house price (HP) and the land transaction price (DP) is 0.980, which is highly correlated. The simple regression analysis of house price (HP) and land transaction price (DP) shows that land transaction price has a good explanatory power to house price.
HP = 8 15+ 1.079 DP(t = 9.849)
Goodness of fit test R=0.960, F=96, DW=2.996.
LN (horsepower) =2.566+0.7 18LN (horsepower) (t= 10.232)
Goodness of fit test R=0.659, F=7.73, DW=3.355.
Explained by the above regression model, there is a strong positive correlation between house price and land price. For every increase in the land transaction price of 1 yuan/square meter, the average contribution price will increase by 1.079 yuan/square meter. According to the elastic explanation, if the land transaction price rises by 1%, the house price changes by 0.7 18%.
The relatively strong demand in the real estate market is another factor driving the rise in housing prices. At present, China is in the stage of accelerated urbanization. The high monopoly of land supply directly leads to the sharp increase of urban land demand, indirectly affects the development process and total amount of urban real estate, and further leads to the increase of housing demand. The relatively strong demand will inevitably lead to an increase in house prices. Taking Hangzhou as an example, this paper analyzes the correlation between the sales price of commercial housing and the sales area of commercial housing in recent years: the correlation coefficient between house price (HP) and the sales area of commercial housing (M) is 0.969, which is highly correlated. The simple regression analysis between housing price (HP) and commercial housing sales area (M) shows that commercial housing sales area has a good explanatory power to housing price.
HP =-236. 18+ 12.8 14M(t = 7.844)
Goodness of fit test R=0.940, F= 62.67, DW= 2.564.
LN (horsepower) = 2.11+1.065ln (m) (t=8.242)
Goodness of fit test R=0.646, F= 7.30, DW= 3.444.
Explained by the above regression model, there is a strong positive correlation between house price and housing sales area. For every increase of 6,543,800 square meters in the sales area of commercial housing, the average contribution will increase by 654.38+02.438+04 yuan/square meter. According to the elastic interpretation, if the sales area increases by 1%, the house price changes by 1.065%.
Defects in land management have also affected the overall price level of houses to some extent. Starting from the goal of encouraging and supporting the development of a certain cause, some cities in China have successively issued a series of preferential land policies, mainly targeting affordable housing, leading the way with housing, attracting investment, supporting key enterprises, helping poor enterprises and so on. Due to the great freedom of policy implementation, management is difficult to reach the designated position, resulting in the loss of land assets and failure to achieve the purpose of support. In addition, due to the state's lack of strict and effective management on land acquisition, design scheme, and scope of buyers of affordable housing, some real estate developers have tried their best to acquire allocated land in the name of affordable housing and failed to build affordable housing according to the standards set by the state, resulting in unfair competition in the real estate market, unreasonable product structure and disorderly land supply.
Therefore, the land reserve system has little negative impact on the real estate market in China, and will not directly lead to the rise of real estate prices.
Countermeasures and suggestions on perfecting land reserve system
In order to make the land reserve system play a greater role in China's urban construction, it is necessary to further improve the system, and the specific suggestions are as follows:
Reasonably control the scope and quantity of land reserve.
Land reserve system is a management system to ensure that the government effectively monopolizes the primary land market. However, it must be pointed out that monopoly cannot affect the development of the land market, nor can it blindly expand the boundaries of the primary land market. We should correctly handle the relationship between government regulation and market allocation, and reasonably control the scope and quantity of land reserve. We believe that in cities where land prices are rising too fast, it is entirely possible to set up a tangible land trading market and let some enterprises with idle land go public, so that idle land can be transferred as soon as possible, land supply can be increased, and waste of land resources can be avoided. Scientifically and reasonably determining the amount of land reserve is an important guarantee for the normal operation of the land reserve system. However, too much land reserve will lead to too much capital occupation and increase the operating risk of land reserve institutions. The reasonable amount of land reserve should be determined according to the relationship between supply and demand of land market, which depends on social, economic and policy factors. It is necessary to design a demand forecasting model through statistical analysis of relevant historical data, and then get the optimal amount of land reserve.
Intensify the adjustment of land supply structure
The harmonious balance between land supply structure and demand structure is a higher level requirement for the balance between supply and demand in the land market. At present, land prices and house prices in some cities in China have risen sharply. Land reserve institutions should not only grasp the total amount of land put in according to the actual demand of the market and the reality of economic development, but also adjust the quantity and supply of land with different uses in time from the perspective of market segmentation to solve the contradiction between supply and demand in the land market. As far as the real estate market in China is concerned, it is imperative to tighten the residential land in the city center and the high-grade real estate land in the city. The development of high-grade commercial housing should be restricted not only from the source of supply, but also by means of high land price and high tax. We will implement the policy of affordable housing and low-rent housing, and appropriately relax the land for commercial housing for the people to meet the growing housing needs of residents. While the policy is "loosened", it is necessary to effectively regulate the land management behavior and avoid the loopholes brought about by the land supply policy.
Establish and improve relevant supporting laws and regulations.
Establish and improve relevant supporting laws and regulations, and solve practical problems with supporting legal means, such as the acquisition and management of public welfare land and the invisible land market in the original built-up area; At the same time, it is necessary to strictly enforce the law and strengthen management, so that the land reserve work can proceed smoothly. Establish a supervision mechanism according to law, supervise the work of reserve institutions, and ensure the realization of reserve targets. A land reserve information disclosure system should be established, and the data and information of land reserve institutions in the process of land acquisition, development, reserve and transfer should be disclosed as much as possible to facilitate supervision and complaints by all parties. At the same time, through the disclosure of annual land lease, transfer plan, land primary market transaction data, land reserve quantity and other market information. To promote the rational development of the real estate development market and guide the market-oriented developers to analyze and predict according to the information and make rational investment decisions.
Strengthen the monitoring function of land reserve management
The weakening of the monitoring function of land reserve management has seriously hindered the healthy and orderly development of urban land market and real estate market. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring function of land reserve management, and strengthen the whole process monitoring and tracking management of land use and land price. Specifically, the first monitoring content is whether the location and use of construction land meet the requirements of the overall urban land use planning and urban construction planning; Second, whether the construction project is applied for and approved according to legal procedures and examination and approval authority, and whether the land is used in violation of the prescribed purposes; Third, whether the land use is carried out according to the prescribed schedule, and whether there are occupied and unused land; The fourth is whether the land price is reasonable, whether it is deliberately raised or lowered, and whether it is engaged in illegal activities of speculating on land. At the same time, closely cooperate with the real estate management department, implement the management of land price and housing price, and put an end to unreasonable pricing behavior in the real estate market.
Reconstruct the organizational system of land reserve
In the early days of the establishment of the urban land reserve system in China, the organizational system of the hierarchical and two-level management model represented by Hangzhou was running smoothly. However, with the deepening of the practice of land reserve system, the disadvantages of this system are increasingly exposed. On the one hand, the land reserve institution is subordinate to the land administrative department and accepts the direct leadership of the latter, which weakens its position and makes its operation inefficient; On the other hand, many government functional departments, such as urban planning, planning, construction, finance, environmental protection, housing management and so on, need to cooperate with each other in the implementation of land reserve, and there is no cooperative pattern.
Therefore, it is necessary to reform the existing land reserve institution system under the land administrative department. Its goal is to establish a new system of land reserve institutions directly led by the Municipal Land and Real Estate Management Committee. The specific contents are as follows: the municipal government integrates departments directly related to urban land use and management through institutional reform, and establishes land and real estate management committees. The Committee consists of several offices, such as land management, real estate management, urban planning and land reserve. The new organizational system is conducive to improving the status of land reserve institutions, providing conditions for giving full play to their roles, and facilitating the coordination among various departments.
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