The new century is coming. Before the bell of praying for peace in the new millennium rings, it is very important for China to observe the international situation around China calmly and predict the changes of the surrounding international environment carefully for maintaining regional peace and concentrating on economic development in the coming period. In recent years, some disturbing events have taken place in the surrounding areas of our country. For example, India and Pakistan ignore international public opinion and oppose the development of nuclear weapons; The United States continues to pursue the policy of military alliance in Asia, trying to establish a TMD system that may undermine the balance of regional military power; Asian countries have signs of an arms race; Separatism and international terrorism have brought serious challenges to some countries; Wait a minute. While being aware of these threats to peace and security, we must also observe the distribution of international power relations around us from a more comprehensive perspective, and observe whether the ways in which countries confirm and realize their national interests have changed, so as to judge the surrounding environment in the next century.

One of the new changes in the international environment is that a multipolar power structure is being formed around China. This is not the product of multipolarization in the world, but a regional structure. Due to the stagnation and low-speed development of Japan's economy, the gap between Japan and other Asian forces is narrowing. At the same time, Japan's willingness to play a role in the political and security fields is even stronger. Russia's economy has stabilized after experiencing a serious recession. With Putin's election, its comprehensive strength has entered a recovery period. Although the integration process of ASEAN has been hit by the financial crisis, it has not been fundamentally hit, and the economic, social and political cooperation among ASEAN countries is still strengthening and expanding. The emergence of the new economy has improved India's economic situation. With the possession of nuclear weapons, India's military deterrence continues to increase. India's desire to play the role of a big country in Asia has obviously increased. China's comprehensive national strength continues to increase, and its position in regional and international relations has been strengthened. The United States is the only superpower in the world, and this position supports its dominant position in Asia. But the United States is a non-Asian country, and its power is scattered all over the world. Its power distribution in Asia is limited by these two factors.

The multi-level structure composed of China, Japan, the United States, Russia, ASEAN and India will be a relatively stable and balanced structure. In the foreseeable period, it is impossible for any pole to gain an advantage in this region alone. In the multipolar equilibrium structure, the change and polarization of the alliance are the main reasons for instability. In the foreseeable future, the US-Japan alliance will remain stable, but its role will be restricted by the strategic relationship between China and Russia, and it will not be unconditionally supported by ASEAN and India. No interests will prompt India and ASEAN to abandon their long-term independent and neutral foreign policy and get involved in the confrontation between the United States and China and Russia. China is the fastest growing country in the region, China will continue to pursue an independent foreign policy of peace, and China will contribute to the stability of this structure.

The stability of this multipolar structure also lies in that even the superpower America can't change it. The distribution of American power in Asia can maintain this relatively stable structure, but if we want to change this structure and adopt a policy of "containment" against China, the cost will be unbearable and will far exceed its benefits. The United States will continue to seek the "leadership" position in Asia, but if it wants to establish unipolar hegemony, it will inevitably be resisted by other forces jointly or separately.

It should be pointed out that the stability of the multipolar power balance around China will be affected by the subregional power and power relations. For example, South Korea and North Korea are important forces for sub-regional balance in Northeast Asia; Pakistan and Thailand are important forces in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Indonesia and Vietnam may play an important role in Southeast Asia. Kazakhstan and Afghanistan may play an important role in Central Asia. These forces not only play an important role in the sub-regional balance, but also pose complex constraints on China and other big countries, thus affecting the stability of the multi-polar structure in Asia. These situations show that the balance of power itself cannot prevent the occurrence of various unstable factors.