The proportion of Beijing in China's total economic output is limited, and the weakening of Olympic elements is not the key factor affecting China's post-Olympic economy. As the Beijing Olympic Games draws to a close, the discussion about the economic trend of China after the Olympic Games is becoming increasingly heated-China's economy maintained rapid growth in the years before the Olympic Games. Will the economy decline after the Olympic Games? In view of the economic downturn experienced by some host countries of the Olympic Games, it is natural and reasonable to ask this question, so it is necessary to study and analyze the economic trend of China after the Beijing Olympic Games. The Olympic economy is generally divided into three stages, namely, the preparation period before the Olympic Games, the holding period of the Olympic Games and the lasting influence period after the Olympic Games. However, at any stage, the national conditions of the host countries of the Olympic Games are very different, and there is no established law to follow. As the largest developing country, China has little comparability with the host countries of the previous 28th Olympic Games. Therefore, it is more important to make a concrete "China analysis" of the above three stages of economy, so as to clarify the post-Olympic economic trend. Let's look at the preparation period before the Olympic Games. Through the government-led model, China has been striving to make the Olympic Games an opportunity for economic development. It is believed that the investment scale of stadiums and supporting infrastructure in Beijing, the host city, has reached the highest level in Olympic history. China strives to expand the radiation effect of the Olympic Games. Seven cities, including Beijing, are jointly hosting the Olympic Games, which has improved many infrastructure construction in China, including rail transit. While successfully preparing for the Olympic Games, it also expanded the foundation of sustained economic growth. The economic pull during the Olympic Games is very obvious. Statistics show that consumption growth reached 23.3% in July, excluding the inflation level of 6.3%, and the actual growth was 17%, which was the highest growth of consumption indicators in recent years. The positive impact of the Olympic economy is obvious. Of course, people are most concerned about the lasting impact after the Olympic Games. Many people are worried that China, like other host countries of the Olympic Games in recent years, will experience economic downturn after the Olympic Games. In my opinion, this kind of worry seems unnecessary. First of all, we should analyze the reasons for the Olympic trough in some countries. To sum up, there are two direct reasons: first, compared with before the Olympic Games, the host country will undoubtedly significantly reduce its investment in related venues and supporting infrastructure, which will naturally slow down economic growth due to reduced investment; Second, some host cities have failed to manage the Olympic venues well. Because some host cities have invested heavily in Olympic hardware construction, most of the sources of funds depend on the form of credit. If there is no effective management mode of venues and facilities after the Olympic Games, or there is not enough sports population and event support, it is easy to have insufficient return on investment and difficult loan payment, which will have a negative impact on banks and even the overall economy. 1976 this was the case after the Montreal Olympic Games, so that it was not until last year (3 1 year after the Olympic Games) that the relevant Canadian authorities paid off all the loans for Olympic venues and corresponding infrastructure construction. The situation in China is different. The Beijing Olympic Games is dominated by the government, and the Olympic construction is mainly invested in the form of government budget and donation, not entirely in the form of bank debt; More importantly, the China Municipal Government has made arrangements in advance for the operation and management of venues after the Olympic Games, drawing on the experience of some countries. The operation and management rights of major large-scale stadiums and supporting facilities in the next 30 years have been sold, and even part of the capital investment for construction comes from sales revenue, which has avoided the problems encountered in the Montreal Olympic Games to some extent. Secondly, the population of different countries, especially the population of the host city, has different effects on the post-Olympic economy. Take 1988 Seoul Olympic Games as an example. The GDP growth rate of Korea in the year of hosting the Olympic Games was 10.5%, and decreased to 6. 1% in the following year. In my opinion, this is related to the large proportion of Seoul's economy in South Korea's overall economy. The total population of South Korea is about 60 million, but the population of Seoul is 6.5438+million. The inevitable decline in investment after the Olympic Games may lead to a decline in the overall economic growth rate of South Korea. The United States, which has hosted the Olympic Games many times, is different. After the Atlanta Olympics, the American economy continued to rise. Among them, in addition to its mature commercial operation, the relatively low proportion of the host city economy in the overall economy of the United States is also an important reason: the total economic volume of the United States is huge, and the economic growth and changes of a certain region or city are not enough to have a substantial impact on the overall economy. In terms of economic scale and population, China is a big country. Research shows that Beijing's economy accounts for about 3.5% of China's economy. For Beijing, the rapid economic growth in recent years has a certain relationship with Olympic investment, but as far as the whole China economy is concerned, the rapid economic growth certainly does not depend only on Beijing. And its Olympic input to discuss the Olympic trough phenomenon, big country economy is different from small country economy. As far as Beijing is concerned, although the Olympic Games has played an obvious role in promoting the economy, there are other economic growth points in Beijing, such as the development of the financial industry and related service industries, and the rail transit and public transport systems need to be further improved. At the same time, the Olympic Games greatly promoted the development space of Beijing's tourism and other cultural industries, and became an important growth point to support Beijing's economy after the Olympic Games. More importantly, the Beijing Olympic Games injected Olympic elements into China's economic growth. The concepts of Green Olympics, High-tech Olympics and People's Olympics have promoted environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction, and scientific and technological innovation, and enabled China's economy to achieve double-digit growth every year, accompanied by real industrial restructuring and economic growth mode transformation. The concept of green economy produced by Olympic elements has a far-reaching and lasting impact on China's economy. In fact, the more important determinant of China's economic trend in the post-Olympic period is how to balance economic growth and inflation control, and how to judge the global economic trend after the subprime mortgage crisis, rather than the weakening of Olympic economic elements. In my opinion, the unstable factor of China's economy this year and next is the real estate industry. If we continue the past mode of real estate development mainly relying on bank loans and real estate investors mainly relying on rolling mortgage loans, it may have a subprime crisis-like impact on China's economy. Therefore, we should pay attention to the economic trend of China after the Olympic Games, and more importantly, we should pay attention to the changes in the international economic situation and the domestic real estate market, rather than the "trough phenomenon" that appears in other Olympic host countries and has little comparability with us.