Cobalt is non-renewable and the global reserves are concentrated. With the recovery of the market and tight supply, the price of cobalt has been rising in recent months. In the long run, the market demand for cobalt is still strong and the industry is expected to maintain steady growth.
Downstream structure
In the demand structure of cobalt, consumer electronics and power batteries are in the forefront. The data shows that the global consumption of refined cobalt in 20 19 is about 13.3 tons, of which 50,000 tons are used in the field of electronic products, accounting for 37%. 65,438+08,000 yuan is used for power batteries, accounting for 65,438+04%. It is estimated that before 2025, 3C's cobalt consumption will be the mainstream of cobalt used in the battery industry, and after 2025, the proportion of power batteries will gradually occupy a dominant position.
Cobalt industry will recover
Affected by global public health events, various industries have been impacted to varying degrees, and the consumption situation of electrolytic cobalt and cobalt powder used in alloy production has declined. According to public data, from June 1 to June 1 1 in 2020, the domestic export volume of cobalt-related products totaled 854.6 tons, down 56.6% year-on-year.
202 1 domestic cobalt supply continues to be tense. Driven by the rapid growth of production and sales of downstream new energy vehicles, it is predicted that the consumption of ternary materials and cobalt sulfate will show an "off-season" trend in the second quarter of 2002/KLOC-0. At the same time, the consumption of electric cobalt and other products in overseas markets is expected to recover. Under the assumption that the import of cobalt raw materials remains high in the first half of the year, it is expected that the domestic supply of cobalt raw materials will remain tight. At present, the discount coefficient of cobalt raw materials has reached the highest level in history. With the strengthening of downstream procurement, it is expected that the price of cobalt refined products will start to rise, and the profit margin will be repaired.
The growth of new energy vehicle market contributes to the increase of cobalt demand.
The rebound in installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is good for cobalt demand market. The cobalt consumption caused by the recovery of the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery can offset the consumption impact caused by the "decarbonization" of ternary cathode materials.
The data shows that from June 5438+0 to June 5438+0 1 in 2020, the cumulative output of domestic power batteries was 68.3GWh, of which ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries were the main categories. The cumulative output of the former is 40GWh, accounting for 58.6% of the total output, with a cumulative increase of 20.5% year-on-year, while the cumulative output of the latter is 28GWh, accounting for 465,438+of the total output. In terms of installed capacity, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries is 32.9GWh, accounting for 64.9% of the total assembled capacity, down 8.0% year-on-year; The cumulative load of lithium iron phosphate battery is 17.5GWh, accounting for 34.5% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative increase of 13.0% year-on-year, exceeding the level of the same period last year. The installed capacity of lithium ferrous phosphate in passenger cars has increased significantly, which has a higher impact on cobalt consumption than "decarbonization".
With the increasing popularity of global electric vehicles, the market demand for cobalt will grow steadily. China and Europe are the main consumer markets of electric vehicles. It is predicted that the penetration rate of electric vehicles in these two regions will increase steadily from 202 1. It is estimated that by 2025, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in China and Europe will reach 23% and 265,438+0% respectively, and the global sales of electric vehicles will exceed 654,380+02 million, with the corresponding cobalt demand of 65,000 tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.3% from 2020 to 2025. If we consider a longer period of time, it is estimated that by 2050, the global demand for cobalt will increase to 507,000 tons in the context of the continuous growth of global electric vehicle consumption.
5G development promotes the growth of cobalt demand market
Under the influence of global public health time, global online office and online education have greatly stimulated the demand for notebook computers and tablets. At the same time, many new models of mobile phones went on the market, and the output of cobalt and lithium exceeded expectations due to the early stocking of the industrial chain. The centralized release of new 5G mobile phone products may promote the continuous improvement of terminal demand. In 2020, 5G enabled many fields, and 5G mobile phones gradually became popular. Last year, more than half of the domestic mobile phone market came from 5G mobile phones, and the proportion of annual shipments was at a high level. With the gradual control of the domestic epidemic, offline stores began to operate, and the market demand was continuously released. Driven by the centralized release of new 5G mobile phones and the recovery of global consumer electronics demand, it is expected that the demand for 3C will gradually increase in the future.
Cobalt production capacity distribution is concentrated
Cobalt is non-renewable, and resources are scarce, and the global reserves and production distribution are relatively concentrated. The data shows that Congo provides the largest power in the global distribution of cobalt raw material production, accounting for more than 70% of the total output, far exceeding Russia, which ranks second. China's cobalt production only accounts for 1% of the world total. As China is a major economy in the world, its market consumption leads the world, and the status of cobalt production and consumption is extremely disproportionate.
Congo's cobalt production capacity increased less than expected, and global supply slowed down.
Congo is the main source of global cobalt production. However, since 20 19, the price of cobalt has been fluctuating at the bottom, resulting in a sharp decline in supply and new capacity. According to public data, the cobalt output in 20 19 was 77,964 tons, down 28.74% year-on-year. By 2020, the cumulative cobalt production from 2020 1 month to1month will be 6658 1 ton, with a slight increase of 2.3% year-on-year. It is estimated that the annual compound growth rate of cobalt supply in Congo will be 8.3% from 2020 to 2025, and the supply will increase from 10 17000 tons to 15 13000 tons. The global cobalt supply has slowed down, unable to keep up with the growth rate of the demand side.
Considering the impact of global public health events on the industry, both the supply and demand sides of the cobalt industry have been hit. In 2020, the cobalt production capacity will be 40 15 tons. With the gradual control of the global epidemic and the expansion of vaccine coverage, various industries gradually resume operations, and the market demand for cobalt is expected to recover quickly. With the popularity of 5G mobile phones, it is expected that there will be a supply gap in the cobalt industry. 2021-In 2022, the demand will improve and the new capacity will be limited, and the supply gap of cobalt will expand. After that, with the release of existing capacity, the supply and demand structure of cobalt will be improved. However, the improvement of demand in 2024-2025 will increase the rigidity, and the gap is expected to continue to expand.
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