Editor's Note: At present, the impact and influence of the global financial crisis on China's logistics industry are still developing in depth. Where are these influences concentrated? How to spend the cold winter, find business opportunities and complete strategic transformation is a problem that we are all concerned about. Recently, Professor Sun Hongling, director of the Institute of Logistics of Henan University of Technology, gave a lecture to Xinxiang Transportation Group Company, and discussed the above issues in depth.

Since the second half of last year, the US subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global financial crisis, which led to worldwide economic turmoil and greatly affected China's economy. With the weakening of foreign demand and the reduction of import and export trade, the logistics industry, as an intermediate link of the whole industrial chain, is highly dependent on other industries, so it is also facing a severe survival test. I. The Impact of the Financial Crisis on China's Logistics Industry With the depression of product manufacturing and import and export trade, the logistics industry has also entered a "cold winter" period, with great changes in the basic elements of logistics, a sharp decrease in flow and confusion in the flow direction. The logistics industry is more easily influenced by other industries. The business flow of various industries is cold, the transaction volume drops, and the flow naturally decreases. The financial crisis has forced China to adjust its industrial structure and layout, which will bring about changes in the place where goods are supplied and received, and then lead to changes in the direction of goods flow. (1) The business volume of international logistics enterprises has been greatly reduced. At present, international logistics enterprises are most seriously affected. Areas with foreign trade dependence above 60% are greatly affected by the crisis, while enterprises and regions with foreign trade dependence below 45% are less affected. However, this trend is spreading from foreign trade-related industries to the upstream of the industrial chain, and it is expected to appear in the whole logistics industry in the third quarter of this year. Affected by the world financial crisis, the growth rate of China port throughput has been declining for several months, and the industries of important basic raw materials such as coal, coke, crude oil and steel have obvious downward inflection points. With the shrinking of international trade, the booming shipping business in the first half of last year also turned sharply. Two or three logistics enterprises have closed down in Tianjin Port Bonded Logistics Park, and the number of enterprises in the park is less than 10. Even the start-up logistics enterprises are not saturated in business volume. Once there is news of delivery, logistics enterprises in various ports in China will compete to make efforts. Although the China government raised the export tax rebate rate of some commodities on June 5438+065438+ 10, the import and export trade is still in a downturn due to unpredictable factors such as the sluggish overseas demand market, exchange rate fluctuations and raw material price fluctuations. Due to the decrease in freight volume, the number of ships moored in the port has decreased, and the port revenue has also decreased accordingly. (2) The domestic logistics enterprise network needs to be optimized urgently. The original international logistics business of large logistics enterprises will be reduced, and the domestic logistics market will be reshuffled by its advanced logistics facilities and equipment and advanced management level. The inherent logistics system and network system need to be adjusted and optimized, and the layout of logistics network and the radiation of nodes will change. Of the country's 4 trillion investment to stimulate the economy and expand domestic demand,10.8 trillion is used for logistics-related industries, and the logistics channels have changed, so the network system needs to be optimized. For example, the opening of dedicated passenger lines will ease the tension in railway transportation. The continuous increase of expressway mileage will also greatly improve the efficiency and benefit of highway transportation. Due to the financial crisis, the market share of logistics enterprises in developed countries declined, and China promised to open its service industry in the WTO. After entering the China market, foreign companies will seize market share with advanced facilities, equipment and management technology, which also requires domestic enterprises to optimize their network systems as soon as possible to cope with the impact. (III) Road transport "No goods can be transported" According to the operation data of the national logistics industry in the first three quarters released by the National Development and Reform Commission on June 7, 2008, the operating costs of logistics enterprises in the first three quarters increased by 36% year-on-year, and the profits of more than 40% of logistics enterprises declined to varying degrees, and some enterprises even lost money. In September 2008, orders from upstream customers of a logistics enterprise in Chengdu dropped sharply by 20%. In August last year, the national road transport freight turnover decreased by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year. At the same time, the investment in transportation fixed assets completed by the whole society in August decreased by 8.9% year-on-year, showing a downward trend for two consecutive months. Before the Olympics, the road freight from Beijing to Chengdu was about 650 yuan/ton, but now it has dropped to about 550 yuan/ton, and I am worried that I won't get the bill. The growth curve of national road transport freight volume and cargo turnover has drawn a rapid downward line since last August. All these situations indicate that the business volume of logistics enterprises is shrinking rapidly. Second, how do China logistics enterprises cope with the economic "cold winter"? The global economy has had a negative impact on China's logistics industry, mainly as follows: First, the business volume has declined; Second, the financial pressure is high; Third, investment is reduced; Fourth, the bad influence is still spreading. So, how do logistics enterprises cope with this economic "cold winter"? (1) Broad hinterland and huge consumer groups. Although the financial crisis is fierce, we can't ignore two points: First, China's economy has only slowed down, and there has been no recession, which is essentially different from the economically developed countries led by the United States. Second, China has a vast economic hinterland, a huge consumer group and a large number of underdeveloped areas to be developed, which are not available in economically developed countries. Due to China's measures to actively expand domestic demand, the growth rate of logistics outsourcing market is likely to remain at around 20%. (B) "Holding a group" over the "winter" logistics market is fiercely competitive, and the whole industry will face reshuffle, which creates conditions for resource reorganization. Some logistics enterprises with strength, standardized operation and innovation will give priority to rapid development in the new round of competition. Therefore, this crisis is a good opportunity for some logistics enterprises with large scale, strong strength and good service quality to become bigger and stronger. However, a large number of small and medium-sized logistics enterprises have weak ability to resist market risks, so they can "hold a group" through resource integration. At the same time, logistics enterprises can extend their services to both ends of the supply chain by improving their service innovation ability, and form strategic partners with customers to share risks and benefits. Constantly strengthen the functions of trade associations, make suggestions for industry safety and strive for favorable logistics policies. (3) Capital does not represent strength, stability does not mean the coming of "cold winter", and people's hearts cannot be chaotic; When the crisis comes, we should not be confused. In the face of reduced traffic and chaotic people flow, whether it is active response or passive waiting, the effect is different. Therefore, Chinese logistics enterprises must keep a clear head. As a logistics enterprise, we must first have scientific and clear strategic thinking, correctly examine and judge our own capabilities, and be thoughtful, strategic and forward-looking, so as to have the ability and measures to control complex markets. Capital does not mean strength, and stability does not mean conservatism. Secondly, we should seize the opportunity to stimulate domestic demand in time, accurately locate the market, establish the awareness of quality service, integrity and morality, and inherit and innovate. Although the "cold winter" has come, spring is still far away. Logistics enterprises should base themselves on the long-term, stabilize their teams and identify their customers. On the one hand, we are prepared to implement strict cost control and create benefits through management; On the other hand, pay attention to the liquidity and safety of funds, ensure that there is no problem in your own capital chain, and ensure the safety of customers' capital chain. (d) Correct orientation: pessimism and optimism should not be "Rome was not built in a day". The "cold winter" of China's economy has short-term factors and is the result of long-term accumulation. There are the factors of American financial crisis and China's own economy. There are both macroeconomic problems and regional economic problems. China's economy is more and more closely linked with the world economy, so China can't be immune to it. For the logistics industry in China, the development of third-party logistics is ahead of and faster than that of enterprise logistics, with weak foundation, unformed supply chain, single function and poor information, and it is even more impossible to be independent. In the domino effect, one domino is the logistics industry. Are there any eggs under the nest? The logistics industry is not optimistic. Of course, international logistics enterprises suffer the most from the high degree of integration with the world economy, but the three principles of "maintaining growth, expanding domestic demand and adjusting structure" put forward by the central government have slowed down the impact on inland logistics enterprises and should be prepared for "cold resistance" An enterprise can't always be in summer, but should prepare food and grass for winter in autumn. As a logistics enterprise, in order to meet the "cold winter", it is necessary to adjust the mentality, strategy and tactics and lay out the market. Once the economy enters the downward orbit, inertia is inevitable no matter how to brake. (5) Confidence is more important than gold. Recently, foreign logistics enterprises have completed the acquisition of many well-known private enterprises in China, and many excellent private logistics enterprises are stepping up negotiations with foreign businessmen. Including express delivery and integrated logistics enterprises, the three pillars of China logistics will have negative changes in the next few years. Despite the current crisis, as Premier Wen said, confidence is more important than gold and currency in the face of economic difficulties. Based on a large amount of upfront investment in logistics infrastructure and a good hardware environment, as long as enterprises have enough confidence and objective understanding, it will be extremely beneficial to promote the great development and prosperity of the logistics industry. The economic "cold winter" is both a challenge and an opportunity for the logistics industry. Impact is inevitable, and integration and upgrading are also necessary. Of the 4 trillion investment in maintaining growth and expanding domestic demand, logistics infrastructure construction is10.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 45%. In addition, agriculture, rural areas and ecological environment account for 26%, and post-disaster reconstruction accounts for 25%. There will be an investment of 2 trillion yuan to promote the increase of logistics flow. The construction of logistics infrastructure will promote the development of logistics industry. According to Director Yang Zhongmin of the Development Planning Department of the Ministry of Railways, the satisfaction rate of railway freight loading is less than 35%, and the daily passenger gap is about 654.38+00000 seats. The investment of 600 billion yuan in 2009 can boost GDP 1.5%. In 2009 and 20 10, the Ministry of Communications invested 2 trillion yuan in the construction of expressway and airport infrastructure. The road is wide and flat, and it is time for the logistics industry to develop greatly. Fourth, the development strategy of logistics enterprises (1) transforms to third-party logistics 1. Improve functions, improve service level and reduce costs; 2. Form its own logistics network system; 3. Improve logistics efficiency; 4. Build a logistics information platform. (II) Joint Fleet and Supply Chain Management A famous American economist said that in the 2 1 century, there were only supply chains and no enterprises in the market. The real competition is not between enterprises, but between supply chains. With the arrival of the "cold winter", the manufacturing industry in Guangdong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is so fragile. The main reason is that the international market is not the era of product competition, but the era of supply chain competition. In order to form a complete supply chain in product design, raw material procurement, supply logistics, product manufacturing, order processing, distribution logistics, terminal sales and other links, product manufacturing is the link with low profit in all links. Some people think that small and medium-sized enterprises waste resources, destroy the environment and are not competitive. Just as the "cold winter" is coming, it should be eliminated. Imagine that small and medium-sized enterprises account for more than 90% of the national enterprises. Even if some of them are eliminated, what kind of situation will China's economy and China's employment be? Moreover, in the early days of reform and opening up, China's economy was supported by many small and medium-sized enterprises. Has it reached the era of "bullying the small with the big and bullying the weak with the strong"? Japan enacted the Law on Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in 1980s to protect small and medium-sized enterprises through laws. Later, through resource integration and collaborative subcontracting, a "joint fleet" and a supply chain were formed, which laid a good foundation for the implementation of supply chain management in the 1990s. We might as well learn from Japan's successful experience, not only to build an "aircraft carrier" enterprise, but also to establish a "joint fleet" through partnership, so as to lay a good foundation for supply chain management. (3) Exit the market and enter the suburbs, gather logistics and stimulate domestic demand. Due to historical reasons, many traditional logistics enterprises are surrounded by urban buildings, which not only causes traffic congestion, pollutes the environment, is incompatible with urban buildings, but also restricts the development space of logistics enterprises. Through land replacement, the logistics enterprises and facilities in the city will gradually withdraw from the urban area and gather in the suburban logistics park, which can not only alleviate the traffic pressure, but also solve the development space of logistics enterprises. The 4 trillion investment to stimulate the economy only needs to be distributed to logistics enterprises a little bit, so that delisting and suburban construction can be realized. It is important to invest a lot of money in repairing bridges and paving roads, but one thing cannot be ignored. One of the main functions of roads and bridges is to be used by logistics and expand domestic demand. The construction of logistics facilities is also a measure to expand domestic demand and cope with the "cold winter". Based on the above analysis, under the background of today's financial crisis, the logistics industry can't take chances, be pessimistic, and despise fear. In last year's Wenchuan earthquake, the people of China were not afraid, but calmly responded. Now, the "cold winter" of the financial crisis has come, and the logistics industry in China cannot be afraid. Instead, we should bravely face the "cold winter", actively adapt to it, spend it safely, and strive to seize opportunities, expand market share and open up new markets, which is the best policy.