(Postscript)

On the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the Tangshan earthquake two years ago, I had a conversation with Chen Jianmin, director of the Seismological Bureau of China, as a postscript to this book.

Zhao Yahui: On July 22nd, an earthquake with a magnitude of 5. 1 occurred in Yanjin, Yunnan, and everyone was very concerned.

Chen Jianmin: The magnitude of this earthquake is not big, but the loss is not small. According to the latest statistics, the earthquake has killed 22 people, injured more than 0/00 people, seriously injured 8 people, collapsed more than 400 houses/0/00, and seriously damaged more than 7,000 houses. The disaster involved 13 towns in Yanjin County and Daguan County.

Zhao Yahui: Since the second half of 2005, earthquakes have occurred frequently in China and its surrounding areas. Many people are concerned about whether China has entered an active period of earthquakes.

Chen Jianmin: In July this year, four earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above occurred in China. This number is not small. In the past two years, the global earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have exceeded 18 times every year. Generally speaking, in recent years, the level of seismic activity in China is low, but the earthquake trend in surrounding areas and around the world is becoming more and more active, which is higher than the historical average, which deserves vigilance. Historically, China is one of the mainland countries with the most destructive earthquakes in the world.

Zhao Yahui: How serious was the earthquake disaster in China in history?

Chen Jianmin: China is located at the intersection of the two major seismic belts in the world-the Pacific Rim seismic belt and the Eurasian seismic belt, with very frequent seismic activities. China's land area is only114 of the world's, but continental earthquakes account for 1/3 of the global land destructive earthquakes. We often say that "serious earthquake disaster is one of the basic national conditions of China". There are two sets of data that can show the severity of earthquake damage in China. Since the 20th century, the global earthquake death toll is 6.5438+0.6 million, while that in China is about 600,000. In history, there have been six earthquakes in the world that killed more than 200,000 people, including four in China.

Zhao Yahui: Because earthquakes are extremely destructive, human beings have long hoped to find the laws of earthquakes and make predictions.

Chen Jianmin: Why are there so many earthquakes every year? Why not make a forecast like the weather forecast before the earthquake? Generally speaking, going to heaven is easier than going to earth.

Nowadays, the rapid development of space observation technology has made the weather forecast have good conditions. But earthquake prediction is to observe the underground. At present, the development of our deep space observation technology is still very slow, or there is a big gap between it and space technology. At present, the deepest drilling depth of mankind is 12 km, while the drilling depth of a well in China during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period is 5 km. Compared with the earth, it is like an egg whose shell has not even penetrated. Directional earthquakes occur in the deep, and the energy in the earth accumulates to a certain extent, and the fracture of rocks and strata produces huge energy release and vibration. This is the difficulty of earthquake prediction.

Zhao Yahui: People are generally more concerned about the possibility of an earthquake in the near future.

Chen Jianmin: We know the principle and law of earthquake preparation, but we are far from fully understanding it. We can predict a certain type of earthquake to a certain extent, but we can't predict all earthquakes; The medium-and long-term predictions we have made on a large time scale have certain credibility, but the success rate of short-term and imminent earthquake predictions is still relatively low.

Earthquake prediction is a worldwide problem, and it is still in the exploration stage. We haven't mastered the law of earthquake development. The prediction is mainly based on the observation data and earthquake cases accumulated for many years, which inevitably has great limitations.

Zhao Yahui: Do you think earthquakes can be predicted?

Chen Jianmin: Simply answering this question should be affirmative. Why do you say that? Because after the 1966 Xingtai earthquake, after several generations of unremitting efforts, at least a certain type of earthquake in a specific area can be predicted to some extent. A typical example is1February 4, 975 Haicheng earthquake with magnitude 7.3, which only killed 1300 people. Experts predict that if the earthquake is not predicted, more than 654.38 million people will die. In addition, in the past 30 years, we have successfully predicted more than 20 earthquakes, such as the Dayao earthquake with Ms 6.2 in Yunnan and the Minle earthquake with Ms 6. 1 in Gansu in 2003, and achieved certain disaster reduction benefits.

Zhao Yahui: However, compared with the actual situation, the probability of successful prediction is still very low.

Chen Jianmin: With the efforts of several generations, the level of earthquake prediction in our region has entered the advanced ranks in the world. However, the prediction we can make under the condition of effective disaster reduction is about 10%. The level of medium and long-term annual forecast is a little higher, ranging from 30% to 40%. But I think, as long as the scientific level continues to improve, one day earthquake prediction will reach a level and degree that will satisfy everyone.

Zhao Yahui: Who released the earthquake prediction in China?

Chen Jianmin: China implements a unified earthquake prediction publishing system. The right to publish lies with the government, and no other unit or individual has the right to publish news about earthquake prediction.

Zhao Yahui: At present, it is very difficult to monitor and predict earthquakes, so it is very important to prevent loyalty before earthquakes occur. We know that there is a jargon for seismic fortification, that is, "be firm on the ground and clear underground."

Chen Jianmin: "Strengthening the foundation" refers to taking fortification measures to improve the seismic capacity of buildings and T-roads. "Underground clarification" is to find out the underground geological structure, including the foundation situation and the distribution of active faults, and it is the basic work of fortification. In the final analysis, seismic fortification is to ensure the ability of buildings and projects to resist earthquakes.

Zhao Yahui: So what's the current situation of earthquake resistance of buildings in China? Can ordinary people's houses withstand the threat of earthquakes?

Chen Jianmin: The situation in cities and rural areas is very different. In cities, buildings built after 1998 basically consider seismic fortification, while a considerable number of buildings built before do not consider seismic fortification or have insufficient seismic capacity. These buildings also occupy a considerable proportion in the city.

Zhao Yahui: What about rural areas?

Chen Jianmin: In rural areas, the situation is more serious. Since the 20th century, destructive earthquakes in China have mostly occurred in rural areas, and nearly 60% of the deaths caused by earthquakes are rural population. Limited by the level of social and economic development, rural houses are basically not included in the standardized construction management, and the seismic capacity of farmers' houses is very poor, and the vast rural areas are basically in an undefended state. "Small earthquake disaster" or even "small earthquake disaster" is a remarkable feature of rural earthquake disasters in China. Earthquakes of magnitude 5 or so will cause houses to collapse and casualties, and even some earthquakes of magnitude 4 or above will cause casualties and economic losses. The seismic capacity of rural housing in China needs to be improved urgently.

Zhao Yahui: What are our countermeasures?

Chen Jianmin: After the National Conference on Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Reduction in 2004, all localities began to actively promote the earthquake safety project of rural houses, and more than 50 villages in nearly 100 counties and cities in Xinjiang and other 18 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) carried out the construction of earthquake safety demonstration villages for rural houses; 16 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) included the earthquake safety project of rural houses in the local 11th Five-Year Plan, and 14 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) issued documents to deploy the earthquake safety project of rural houses ... Not long ago, I went to Xinjiang and saw that 596,000 households and about 2.48 million people had lived in safe and earthquake-resistant new houses.

Earthquake-resistant houses will eventually be fully promoted, because earthquake prevention is better than a thousand days without earthquakes!

Written by Zhao Yahui, a reporter from People's Daily who went to the earthquake-stricken area personally, the book recorded the real situation in the earthquake-stricken area and the touching story of earthquake relief, and reflected the history of northwest Sichuan and Qiang culture before the earthquake. The book is divided into five parts, with 6.5438+0.3 million words and 424 photos.

Zhao Yahui said at the new book release conference held on June 5438+08 that he came to northwest Sichuan twice in a year and felt completely different. Writing the book "Forever Wenchuan" this time tries to objectively and truly reflect personal facts, and it is also the greatest contribution to society as a reporter.

In addition, the book will also participate in the "Road to School Plan" of Beichuan Middle School. For every book sold, it will donate 1 yuan to 590 surviving senior three students in the school.

:: Introduction;

Through vivid contrast before and after the earthquake, Forever Wenchuan tells the people's spirit of self-improvement in this cruel earthquake disaster, tells the beautiful mountains and rivers of the past, and eulogizes the humanistic spirit hidden in the disaster with a unique and open perspective and heavy humanistic feelings. This book is divided into five parts: Wenchuan, Wenchuan ..., Beichuan: the funeral of Ermayina, Mianyang: the difficulty of science and technology city, Jiangyou: the worry of Li Bai's hometown, Maoxian, Songpan, Jiuzhai, Journey to the West ...13,000 words, more than 400 photos recorded the real situation of the earthquake-stricken areas and the touching stories of earthquake relief, focusing on the northwest of Sichuan and the Qiang people before the earthquake.

5. 12 After the Wenchuan earthquake, the author rushed to the earthquake area at the first time and reported in Mianzhu, Wenchuan, Beichuan, Dujiangyan and Mianyang successively, which had a great influence. This book reveals the disaster relief situation in Wenchuan and Beichuan after the earthquake, including the beautiful local scenery and people's stories before the earthquake. At the same time, it describes the culture of Wenchuan and Beichuan, the most important Qiang inhabited areas in China, from the aspects of architecture, costumes, music, dance and folk customs, so that readers can better understand the history and culture of Qiang compatriots in northwest Sichuan.

* About the author:

Zhao Yahui, director of the Ministry of Education of People's Daily, was one of the top ten outstanding young people in China and an outstanding journalist in China. Participated in the live coverage of major emergencies for many times. I once crossed three oceans with the space survey ship "Roy", rescued the seriously wounded in Bam earthquake-stricken area in Iran, visited the tsunami-stricken area in the Indian Ocean in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, and followed the 2005 Everest survey 100 days. ...

He has written books, reports and works such as Experiencing the Catastrophe of the Century, which has had great social influence on many occasions. His deeds were widely reported by CCTV's Son of the Orient, News Investigation, Focus Interview, Guangming Daily, China Youth Daily, China News and China Press and Publication.

* Title page text:

This is a book worthy of permanent collection, and it is the best memorial to the severely affected northwest Sichuan. —— Song Ming, Party Secretary of Beichuan Qiang Autonomous County (signature)

* back cover text:

As an extra member of the rescue team, Yahui recorded little-known insider and firewire stories. —— Zhao Heping, deputy director of the Seismological Bureau of China and commander-in-chief of the National Earthquake Disaster Emergency Rescue Team

It will be many years before the value of this book will be fully displayed. —— Yao Tandong, academician and geographer of China Academy of Sciences.

Yahui uniquely showed the most thrilling historical picture of the earthquake with words and lenses, which just explains why his disaster-resistant blog can stand out, with more than 10 million visits in more than ten days. —— Chen Tong, editor-in-chief of Sina.com

Follow Zhao Yahui, revisit the northwest corner of China, discover the brilliance of remote corners, pursue untouched feelings, experience the tragic scene of disasters and appreciate the eternity of historical moments. -Zhang Xiaojun, Deputy General Manager of FAW-Volkswagen Audi Sales Division

After the earthquake, the complete witness of the scene is very attractive to read.

Before the earthquake, the feast of human geography was very enjoyable to read. -Dan Zhiqiang, executive editor of chinese national geography.

Ten characters in the book

1. Volunteer Chen Yan went to Wenchuan, Beichuan, Mianyang and other places to help more than 20 people with the national rescue team.

Quotation: I came to p 16 because I am still alive.

2. The wife of engineer Mou, who was rescued after being buried in Huang Li for 80 hours, sang songs to encourage her husband buried in the ruins to survive.

Quotations: Apo Amen, a vine p30

3. A Dujiangyan citizen who was buried in Zhang Xiaoping 129 hours later chose to amputate and came out alive.

Quotations: You have to live without your legs. p4 1

4. Wang Nianfa was a member of China National Earthquake Disaster Emergency Rescue Team, and participated in the rescue of Algerian earthquake, Iranian Bam earthquake, Indian Ocean tsunami and other major disasters. This earthquake, I used my diary to record the ten days in the disaster area.

Quotations: life is above everything else, and saving people is the most important. p48

5. Ma Xiaofeng, the girl behind Coke Boy.

Quotation: Take a picture of me here, I want to remember this moment. p59

6. The 2007 graduate of Beichuan Middle School in Luo Yuting, who won the fifth place in the college entrance examination in 2007, was funded by the "Road to School" project.

Quotations: For me, the furthest distance in the world is not between life and death, but the university is in front of me, but I don't know where the way to it is. We Beichuan people don't give up. p77、85、9 1

7. Lao Gong is an old man who is optimistic about life while playing the iron in Yuli Township, Beichuan County.

Quotations: This is my profession. p97

8. Students of Mianyang Medical College in Rebecca give girls massage and exercise in the square.

Quotations: I am also an intern, and I can also serve the citizens. p 146

9. Yang Haiping, an old man who lives in Doutuanshan in order to earn tuition for his children.

Quotation: I intend to work again 10 years. p 177

10. Chen Haiyuan, Qiang flute player, national intangible cultural heritage inheritor.