The financial data for May will be released soon. After the the State Council Standing Committee further deployed a package of measures to stabilize the economy on May 23, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "Central Bank") and the China Banking Regulatory Commission held an analysis meeting on the monetary and credit situation of major financial institutions, emphasizing that the financial system should make full use of various policy tools to make efforts from two aspects: expanding the volume and stabilizing the stock, and supporting high-quality economic development with moderate credit growth. On the same day, the central bank held a system-wide video conference to analyze the monetary and credit situation, and proposed to guide financial institutions to go all out to increase lending and enhance the stability of total credit growth.
Tan, chief analyst of Minsheng Securities, told the Securities Daily that the scale of new credit in May is expected to be10.5 trillion yuan. From the structural point of view, bill financing and short-term loans of enterprises may still be the main support, and medium-and long-term loans of enterprises are expected to improve slightly, but the year-on-year improvement may be limited. Under the influence of the epidemic, the effect of the combined policy of stabilizing employment and protecting people's livelihood has a certain time lag. Therefore, residents' income and consumption will continue to weaken in May, and residents' short-term loans will continue to show a trend of less growth in May. In addition, the sales of commercial housing in May have not improved substantially, and it is expected that the growth rate of residents' medium and long-term loans will continue to be less than that of the same period last year.
Zhang Yu, assistant director and chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities Research Institute, thinks that the new loans in May are expected to be around 1.2 trillion yuan, down 300 billion yuan from the same period last year. First of all, the cash discount rate of state-owned bank bills further declined in May, and the three-month interest rate approached 0. Even after May 26th, the bill interest rate began to rise slightly, but according to the experience of 20V2165438+February, it is estimated that the effect of credit impulse in the last week is not enough to reverse the trend of less credit growth year-on-year. Secondly, residents' loans are expected to remain relatively low.
Many institutions have also given forward-looking data. CITIC Securities expects to increase RMB credit 1.3 trillion in May, slightly lower than the same period last year, but the difference will not be too much.
Guotai Junan predicts that the scale of new credit in May will be about10.5 trillion yuan, which is the same as that in May 2026, 5438+0. Residents will pick up and enterprises will be weak.
Zhongtai Securities believes that under the background of increasing credit supply, it is expected that the new credit in May will still be slightly higher than the same period of last year, and the scale of new credit in May may may be 1.6 trillion yuan.
China Merchants Securities predicts that credit demand will remain weak in May, but policy strength will boost the improvement of credit increment. Since the beginning of April, domestic epidemics have occurred frequently. In May, real estate sales still fell sharply year-on-year, and personal credit demand continued to be sluggish. However, the policy requires all-out efforts to achieve reasonable credit growth in May. At the end of May, the short-term rediscount rate rebounded significantly, only slightly lower than the interbank deposit rate of the same term, reflecting the obvious improvement in credit supply in late May. It is estimated that the new loans in May will be 1.55 trillion yuan, which is close to the same period last year.
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