On June 7th, The Wall Street Journal published an article entitled "Why China's real estate stocks didn't rise with house prices". The article pointed out that there was a wave of real estate market boom in China recently, but it was not reflected from the trend of real estate developers' stocks. This disconnect is a warning to investors that the current real estate recovery is unsustainable.
The WSJ pointed out that the average house price in China has increased by 1 1% since the beginning of 20 15. House prices in so-called first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have risen by 30%. Recently, this trend has spread to smaller second-tier cities, and house prices have increased by 5% this year.
But the shares of residential builders did not show the same optimistic trend. The benchmark A-share real estate index has fallen by 20% so far this year, underperforming the broader market. On the Hong Kong stock market, the shares of large real estate developers in China fell by 14%.
In the Hong Kong stock market, which allows foreign investors to enter freely, the shares of many China developers are currently below their book value. The valuation of these real estate companies is generally lower than that of A-share listed real estate companies.
The article said that this may mean huge buying opportunities. But it seems a more reasonable explanation is that the stock market shows that the current real estate recovery is unsustainable.
Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, said that the rebound of the real estate market is based on the loose real estate policy and the loose credit policy. This round of real estate recovery is to realize real estate destocking through some investment institutions or individuals, so we think that this round of real estate market will be periodically adjusted.
Zhang Jun pointed out that for the stock market, investors pay more attention to the profitability and sales of enterprises, so it is a short-lived market for investors.
But the fact is that even if the house price rises, the profit rate of developers is also declining. The Wall Street Journal article pointed out that the average net interest rate of real estate developers listed on A shares in the first quarter dropped to 7.9%, and it was 65,438+00% at the end of 2065,438+04.
It can be seen that at present, first-tier cities and some second-tier cities have begun to tighten the property market regulation policy. Zhang Jun believes that once the monetary policy is fine-tuned or the credit policy is adjusted, it will have a certain impact on the real estate market.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from June 5438 to April, the national investment in real estate development was 2,537.6 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 7.2% over the previous year, and the growth rate was 1 percentage point higher than that in June 5438+0-3.
At the same time, as the sales market continues to heat up, real estate destocking has made remarkable progress. The area of commercial housing for sale has decreased for two consecutive months.
According to Zhang Jun's forecast, the growth rate of real estate sales will slow down at the beginning of the third quarter of this year, and with the decline of sales and new construction, the growth rate of real estate investment will also start to slow down. I am worried that with the decline in previous sales and the rise in new construction, there will be a new wave of destocking in some cities.
Some analysts pointed out that the stock market will continue to fluctuate due to the influence of market confidence and capital flow pattern. The property market is more influenced by the real estate policy and the central bank's credit policy, which is the performance of the two types of markets under different characteristics.